Then and Now

[webmaster]

Subject:Then and Now
By: Theodore Butler

Overview: Recently, the price of silver has been at levels not witnessed since 1980, some 28 years ago. That’s a pretty good chunk of time. For instance, 28 years ago, half the world’s 6.5 billion population had yet to be born. On a personal basis, it was almost half a lifetime ago for me. How old were you and what were you doing in 1980?

Link: http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1208878782.php

[Holidaysilver]

Ted Butler is my Hero! I began reading his work when silver was $6.00 an ounce. Though my holdings are, relatively small, I have more then doubled my investment. This means I have more than twice the value I would have, just saving money in a bank. I trust what he says.

If there are truly, Two Billion ounces of unbacked silver paper out there, this explains a lot.

It explains why silver can't get back over $18.00. Whoever is protecting the shorts through price controls must be very powerful. I imagine we will soon be reading about them filling up the "Country Club Jails" this type of crook usually ends up in.

As individuals we are not powerful enough to defeat the shorts, but united we can spread the word. Ask everyone you know "Have you heard about the big silver shortage?" If they are receptive, inform them of the amount of silver that is available to them. If you can convince them to buy even one ounce, you will be their hero someday.

Thank you Mr. Butler. I am grateful to you for your wisdom and advice. I'm still buying.

[DontTaseMeBro]

I am very confused about what is happening in the market now.

Like a fool, I had listened to all this hype about gold and silver and the falling dollar. On the surface it seemed to make sense to me, and I moved a large, large, large amount of savings over to a Silver ETF fund (iShares Silver Trust -SLV) and some to a Gold ETF fund (GLD).

This was back at the very beginning of March 2008, when Silver was at around 21.8 per-ounce (or whatever), and gold was well over 1000/oz.

Needless to say, ever since then the price of Silver has plummeted...absolutely plummeted, and I have now lost 6 figures (100,000s).

I keep on hearing very conflicting advise: The IMF is driving the price of commodities down...Silver is scarce (suggesting the price should go up)...Gold will hit 1650...I should have avoided "paper silver" and invested in Coins...ETFs are a scam...Gold has to go up...etc.


Yet it appears to me from everything that has been going on right now that Gold & Silver must have been just artifically hyped-up to benefit the few knowing investors who got in the game early, and then as soon as Gold hit the magic almightly 1000 figure .... then poof....the game had been played, and the whole metals mirage ended. I may be wrong, but that's what it looks like.

Silver has fallen way, way too far, down to 17.00 now, about a 35% drop.
I fear that I will now never recover my original savings now (remember I bought when it was close to 22/oz), much less ever profit from it. I have lost a huge, huge chunk of my life savings, and my IRA as well.

Can someone explain, in layman's language, why when we have all this massive debt, a clearly declining dollar and increasing money supply, higher Oil prices, etc. -- despite this, the market price of Silver and Gold has been going steadily down...down..down now ever since the beginning of March? (we're almost up to May 2008 now).

Clearly, this is not just one-time "profit taking". I lost my shirt here. I'm really very, very worried and I don't know why the market price keeps on plummeting with no bounce back to anything remotely close to the earlier March levels.

Can someone explain what is going on, and whether these ETFs are just a sinking ship that I better get out of before I lose it all?
I need help understanding this stuff.

What should I do?

[HAG2:8]

This is what the Daily Reckoning guys said on 23rd April:
The Smart Money Sneaks into Gold


Is gold already coming back into fashion?


Maybe. We don’t know what tomorrow has in store. We don’t know whether the sun will rise. We don’t know what we’re having for lunch, or when, or where. Will it be penne marinara on St Kilda Road in Melbourne at exactly 1:23pm? Who knows! Nobody - especially not us. If our lack of knowledge were a length of string, you could knit a woollen jumper the size of Western Australia with it.


But as we wallow in ignorance, we occasionally see something worth knowing.


Here’s something. Smart money moves before the big money. The trend-setters in a gold bull-market are institutions. They’re always on top of the season’s fashions well before the teeming masses get a look in. Then, when a lightbulb clicks on above the noggin of the everyman…there’s a rush to get in. And there are plenty of everymen.


Knowing that, you might be interested to hear that some people think the smart money is moving. Commodities analyst CPM Group has seen something in the volume patterns of gold trading.


In short, although the value of gold trades on the London Interbank market has been rising, the number of transactions has fallen of late. Less people are putting more money into gold. There’s more money flying around, but fewer trades. Given the greater access to capital that institutional investors have over Joe Citizen, this tells you that the big players are pushing into the gold market.

How they push the price down and load up is beyond my understanding, but I have to agree that it looks like the gold and silver markets are manipulated by just a few players. But silver is in a unique situation of dwindiling supply and ultimately the day comes when the price will shoot through the roof. Problem is we don't just know when tht day will be.

When you bought there was an emerging shortage at the retail level in USA & Australia and so it was reasonable to think that day of lift off was soon to be upon us. Your decision to buy at that time was quite reasonable and you would not be alone in acquiring at those prices. But as you may notice a lot of members of this forum acquire steadily and not all at once.

What you need to recognise is that:
1) the silver market is volatile and unfortunately you are suffering short term paper losses. But you are not a trader so hang tight.

2) you have "paper" silver and not physical. Early on I had paper gold and silver with the Perth Mint and came through the writings of Ted Butler to be cautious of paper silver and gold. There are many more times silver sold and traded than what physically exists and so one day when the music stops and everyone who has to deliver physical start scrambling for seats, there will be a lot of sellers with no silver to supply and a lot of holders of paper with no silver to back them. That is why I bought physical bars of silver and store them in vaults and when I had my quota I sold the paper silver back to the Pert Mint.

This raises a storage issue for you if you go down the same path. It seems that it is not without justification that you Americans are paranoid about Government confiscation of your private precious metal holdings and there are numerous ideas of how to get around that and you will find these ideas in this forum.

I repect Ted Butler and Jason Hommel and believe in my spirit that these are men of integrity and authority in the field of silver investment and encourage you to access their archives.

You have lost more than I have invested so I appreciate how badly you must be feeling. But on fundementals the only way for silver is north so don't lose sleep over the current price but give due consideration to the form of your holding.

All the best.

[DontTaseMeBro]

What is the best and safest way to buy Silver bars?

Thanks

[JesterJay]

Cash and carry. Bring a good friend and his firearm.
Jay

Originally Posted by DontTaseMeBro

What is the best and safest way to buy Silver bars?

Thanks

[chux03]

Originally Posted by DontTaseMeBro

I am very confused about what is happening in the market now.

Like a fool, I had listened to all this hype about gold and silver and the falling dollar. On the surface it seemed to make sense to me, and I moved a large, large, large amount of savings over to a Silver ETF fund (iShares Silver Trust -SLV) and some to a Gold ETF fund (GLD).

This was back at the very beginning of March 2008, when Silver was at around 21.8 per-ounce (or whatever), and gold was well over 1000/oz.

Needless to say, ever since then the price of Silver has plummeted...absolutely plummeted, and I have now lost 6 figures (100,000s).

Can someone explain what is going on, and whether these ETFs are just a sinking ship that I better get out of before I lose it all?
I need help understanding this stuff.

What should I do?

Repeat after me/us....

SILVER IS A LONG TERM INVESTMENT,
I WILL NOT LOOK AFTER THE PRICE EVERYDAY.
NOR WILL I LISTEN TO IDIOTS WHO TOUT STOCKS ON T.V.
I'M IN IT FOR THE LONG RUN,
PRICE SWINGS ARE MEANINGLESS.
I KNOW THIS IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO BUT
IF I GET NERVOUS I PULL UP ANY ARTICLE BY TED BUTLER AND I
IMMEDIATELY (feel better) & KNOW (again) I'M RIGHT & I'M GOING TO WIN.
AND WHILE I MAY HAVE CHOSEN TO JUMP IN ON THE WRONG DAY,
BUYING ON THE DIPS WILL EVEN OUT THE ODDS AND LOOKING BACK THAT WON'T MATTER.
WHAT MATTERS IS HAVING IT IN MY HANDS AND IN MY CONTROL, SO ABSOLUTE TRUST IN PAPER SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
(Or as my old girlfriend used to say) THERE'S NOTHING LIKE THE REAL THING!!

So what WOULD I DO?
I'd sit tight and wait for the price to turn around and then I'd start converting SLV and GLD shares to cash. Then start purchasing the real thing AFTER you get that HEAVY, SECURE gun safe so you have somewhere to store it safely. NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING UNLESS YOU TELL THEM. You'll be surprised how much better you'll be sleeping knowing YOU are back in control.

[DontTaseMeBro]

When I asked "what is the best and safest way to buy", what I meant was WHO do I buy Silver Bars from?
I don't want to be worried about price markups, and inauthenticity, and false advertising, and verification issues.

1. Who is a trustworthy source for buying physical Silver from?
2. How would I liquidate physical Silver back into cash without markdowns and ripoffs?

Thanks

[DontTaseMeBro]

When I asked "what is the best and safest way to buy", what I meant was WHO do I buy Silver Bars from?
I don't want to be worried about price markups, and inauthenticity, and false advertising, and verification issues.

1. Who is a trustworthy source for buying physical Silver from?
2. How would I liquidate physical Silver back into cash without markdowns and ripoffs?

Thanks

[buggles]

My local dealer has proven himself a reputable and reliable dealer to buy silver from.

I haven't purchased from APMEx as I don't buy large enough lots to justify the shipping but their selection is good and they keep turning it over at an incredible rate which tells me people continue to buy from them. Folks on the PM forums continue to recommend APMEx and buy from them. I'd say that constitutes a very strong indicator of their reputation.

You are NOT going to be able to liquidate at a price that is something other than under spot. This is why you buy low and sell high. You don't liquidate unless A) Spot has gone up enough that your liquidation nets an appreciation or B) You need the cash so bad it is worth taking the hit to get cash in hand. Only you can rip you off. If you don't like the liquidation rate don't let go of your metal or find a buyer who is going to give you what you are looking for.

What makes this so hard to understand? There are a million things about PMs that ARE difficult to understand or evaluate consistently but how to actually traffic is the simplest aspect of it all.