Crunch Time?

[webmaster]

Subject:Crunch Time?
By: Theodore Butler

Overview: It is one thing to analyze on a long-term basis, and quite another to make short-term predictions. There is no doubt in my mind that silver is a rock solid long-term investment opportunity, with an absolutely spectacular risk to reward ratio and value. It’s just a matter of time before silver is priced substantially higher. As I try to point out week after week, the rise in the price of silver is inevitable. That’s all that should matter to long-term investors. Silver is the ultimate buy and hold.

Link: http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1237228354.php

[Chiswick40]

I thought I might get in before Duneyman and say what an exciting article from Ted. I can't wait for the day that silver goes supernova.

[research24]

WTF is this?

[fullsafe]

I'll second that but I'm sure we'll here that the exact time and date were missing!

[duneyman]

Originally Posted by Chiswick40

I thought I might get in before Duneyman and say what an exciting article from Ted. I can't wait for the day that silver goes supernova.

If I didn't have seven and half years worth of experience with Ted's brand of hype and distortion I would be agreeing with you. Maybe the supernova will come and then again maybe it won't. If I were him I would be praying for the day the explosion occurs so then I wouldn't have to feel miserable knowing I was deceiving others. But then, let's face it - he is making a good living by writing about silver so why not keep it going and going.

[valerb@bellsouth.net]

Originally Posted by duneyman

If I didn't have seven and half years worth of experience with Ted's brand of hype and distortion I would be agreeing with you. Maybe the supernova will come and then again maybe it won't. If I were him I would be praying for the day the explosion occurs so then I wouldn't have to feel miserable knowing I was deceiving others. But then, let's face it - he is making a good living by writing about silver so why not keep it going and going.

I basically agree with you, but Ted normally doesn't go out on a limb and make predictions about anything happening now. It's usually a, someday it will happen and every day is one day closer. Well hell, we can all make that prediction and we would all be correct, even if that someday was in 50 years from now.

What I would like to know, is how does he know who has or has not received their March deliveries. Does anyone know if that information is posted at NYMEX?

I know from personally tracking the COMEX Silver warehouse inventory for several months that the amount of Silver removed from their inventory is "always" less than the amount delivered each month. I'm not talking about the net amount in their inventory, but the actual daily activity being withdrawn. Even on a daily basis where the net inventory might be zero changes, it still would show one million added and one million withdrawn.

The deliveries can be made from either, the Registered or Eligible class, and from the wholesalers. One of the Analyst that posts messages at Goldseek.com, a few months back stated that the ETF SLV was storing a sizable amount of Silver in the COMEX warehouses. The reasoning was that it didn't make sense to buy it in the US and ship it all the way to England and then to turn around and ship it back to the US when someone wanted to take possession of 50,000 ounce lots. What he didn't say was rather this inventory stored in the COMEX warehouses could or could not be bought and used to make deliveries without being assayed. My thoughts are, that if it has never been removed from the COMEX chain of custody (their hands), it may still be considered deliverable inventory. Unlike once it has been removed from their custody, it must be assayed again before being allowed back in.

Of the 13 million ounces out for delivery this month, almost zilch has come out of the COMEX. It could be that it was all or is all being delivered from wholesalers. Then again, if the SLV inventory stored in the COMEX warehouses is available for delivery, it could very well account for the bulk of March deliveries already made. Since the first of March, there has been 9 million ounces removed from the SLV inventory. Something to think about! Millions of ounces are bought and sold on a daily basis with SLV. Anyone can buy a million ounces at the drop of a hat and take delivery. Since it is the largest know supply of Silver in the world. Wouldn't it make sense to purchase Silver from them to make deliveries if needed to keep any supply shortage from becoming public?

Micro and Macro economics are one thing, but I think that if we see a constant drop in SLV inventory, we are making progress.

[duneyman]

Originally Posted by valerb@bellsouth.net

I basically agree with you, but Ted normally doesn't go out on a limb and make predictions about anything happening now. It's usually a, someday it will happen and every day is one day closer. Well hell, we can all make that prediction and we would all be correct, even if that someday was in 50 years from now.

What I would like to know, is how does he know who has or has not received their March deliveries. Does anyone know if that information is posted at NYMEX?

I know from personally tracking the COMEX Silver warehouse inventory for several months that the amount of Silver removed from their inventory is "always" less than the amount delivered each month. I'm not talking about the net amount in their inventory, but the actual daily activity being withdrawn. Even on a daily basis where the net inventory might be zero changes, it still would show one million added and one million withdrawn.

The deliveries can be made from either, the Registered or Eligible class, and from the wholesalers. One of the Analyst that posts messages at Goldseek.com, a few months back stated that the ETF SLV was storing a sizable amount of Silver in the COMEX warehouses. The reasoning was that it didn't make sense to buy it in the US and ship it all the way to England and then to turn around and ship it back to the US when someone wanted to take possession of 50,000 ounce lots. What he didn't say was rather this inventory stored in the COMEX warehouses could or could not be bought and used to make deliveries without being assayed. My thoughts are, that if it has never been removed from the COMEX chain of custody (their hands), it may still be considered deliverable inventory. Unlike once it has been removed from their custody, it must be assayed again before being allowed back in.

Of the 13 million ounces out for delivery this month, almost zilch has come out of the COMEX. It could be that it was all or is all being delivered from wholesalers. Then again, if the SLV inventory stored in the COMEX warehouses is available for delivery, it could very well account for the bulk of March deliveries already made. Since the first of March, there has been 9 million ounces removed from the SLV inventory. Something to think about! Millions of ounces are bought and sold on a daily basis with SLV. Anyone can buy a million ounces at the drop of a hat and take delivery. Since it is the largest know supply of Silver in the world. Wouldn't it make sense to purchase Silver from them to make deliveries if needed to keep any supply shortage from becoming public?

Micro and Macro economics are one thing, but I think that if we see a constant drop in SLV inventory, we are making progress.

There always seems to be a looming shortage or default or discrepancy or irregularity or what have you at the COMEX but Ted's explosion never happens in real life.

[JesterJay]

Come ON!
Say something different, would you?
Ted just did.
He admits, like most of us do, that we don't know the exact day, month, or even year when Silver will go Kaboom.
But Ted just told you that it is in such a way that it SHOULD FLY. Now, yes soon. Like in the next month or so.
If it doesn't then that means the points he showed as reasons why it will happen have to reverse.
That is quite significant.
Please read it again and realize what he has just told us all.
And duneyman? You need to get up from the other side of the bed.
Slide it away from the wall and walk all the way around,
JesterJay

Originally Posted by duneyman

There always seems to be a looming shortage or default or discrepancy or irregularity or what have you at the COMEX but Ted's explosion never happens in real life.

[duneyman]

Originally Posted by JesterJay

Come ON!
Say something different, would you?
Ted just did.
He admits, like most of us do, that we don't know the exact day, month, or even year when Silver will go Kaboom.
But Ted just told you that it is in such a way that it SHOULD FLY. Now, yes soon. Like in the next month or so.
If it doesn't then that means the points he showed as reasons why it will happen have to reverse.
That is quite significant.
Please read it again and realize what he has just told us all.
And duneyman? You need to get up from the other side of the bed.
Slide it away from the wall and walk all the way around,
JesterJay

Sure, he never comes out and picks a specific date but it's always very soon. At least the people predicting the end of the world come out and tell us exactly when it will all end for us.

[akak]

Originally Posted by duneyman

Sure, he never comes out and picks a specific date but it's always very soon. At least the people predicting the end of the world come out and tell us exactly when it will all end for us.

And people were rightly predicting the fall of communism in the USSR for decades, as its internal contradictions were obvious. The fact that a particular date was not assigned to the prediction did not make the predictions any less accurate.

Likewise, intelligent observers for at least 30 years have predicted the collapse of our banking and financial system, due to ITS internal contradictions and imbalances. Were those predicting it in the 1980's wrong because they were off on their timing?

I live in a major earthquake zone --- the fact that nobody can tell us when the "Big One" will hit does not invalidate the fact that the "Big One" WILL hit.