The Real Speculators

[webmaster]

Subject:The Real Speculators
By: Theodore Butler

Overview: I think oil prices recently shot up, just like wheat and cotton did not so long ago, because a number of shorts, at the margin, decided to buy back short positions in a hurry. I know that the short position in silver is held by very few participants, so when they cover, it will not be an event measured at the margin. It will be an event characterized by a change at the core of the market. The short covering in oil, wheat and cotton are just a hint of what’s to come when the shorts cover in silver.

Link: http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1213126384.php

[cassowary]

It's about time EVERYONE on the long side in commodities or commodity stocks started agitating for the only thing that will end this silly nonsense once and for all: PRICING EVERY SINGLE COMMODITY AGAINST A BASKET OF CURRENCIES, NOT DARLING DOLLAH.

For all we know, this may help Darling Dollah itself in the long- if not the short - term.

But it would certainly help gold, silver, nat gas, wheat, and various other commodities in the complex more or less immediately.

I believe it would be net neutral for Oil.

So-called "Dow Theory" - if it were ever anything other than complete Voodoo - only had minimal validity when Darling Dollah was THE world reserve currency and the US was the "World's Only Stupid Power."

Those days are long gone and are never, ever, ever coming back again.

Darling Dollah is now just ONE world reserve currency among many, and it's fast losing its status as the most important one.

The US is not longer remotely the World's Only Stupid Power. It is one among many, including Russia, China, the Eurozone, the Gulf States, and eventually - who knows? - South and Southeast Asia collectively, Latin America collectively, even Africa collectively.

The essential problem is not what is done on corrupt exchanges like NYMEX and COMEX.

The essential problem is that we need to establish new, carefully monitored, unbiased, and truly fair exchanges in truly unbiased and fair COUNTRIES to do the bulk of the world's commodity trading.

How about Canada?

How about Norway?

Or pick somewhere super-neutral, like Andorra!

(Actually, as a commodity long, I'd prefer Russia, but I don't think that would fly.)

In any case, it is high time these ideas gained momentum - and fast.

The DOGs' propaganda gets sillier and sillier - but OUR side seems incapable of countering it.

Our day in the sun just will not come, until the entire commodity complex is neutrally traded against currency baskets.

I welcome comments from others. Please write to me.

Bird

[Richard]

Originally Posted by cassowary

I welcome comments from others. Please write to me. Bird

Um... fiat currency is still fiat currency, unless last night some other Wiser Country went and backed it's paper with some kind of precious metal. So baskets of it aren't going to matter a lick; they're ALL falling, just some more than others.

Anyway, on letting some country decide, say Canada... No. Let the MARKET decide the market. Which is to say, everyone but no one in particular. I don't know about you, but I've about HAD IT of all this un-natural control over my life.

On the article... I concur. I just thought maybe they would try to go shorter for a little while longer in order to buy time. Of course, Mr Butler never said they were looking to cover with long positions...

But how could it not be inevitable that they must at some point (likely soon, as in within the next year)? Okay, so indeed it is bullish that they have been foolish!

Does anyone have any thoughts on the comparison to oil's long position and it's run up compared to what silver can do? Just my two cents... if cpncentrated long oil is about 20% and silver about 80% on the short, then does that mean a potential rise of at least four times greater what oil just went through?!

If so... (whistles incredulously). And that would be just a start too, wouldn't it?

[cassowary]

Separate what goes on among and between currencies from what goes in the commodity complex, and commodities will finally become NEUTRAL again, for worse or for better - in the case of gold and silver, for MUCH better, IMO!

Overnight, the gold and silver industries would be judged AS industries, rather than as pro-dollar or anti-dollar signalers.

"Dow Theory" has been a pure bonanza for shorts of all stripes, both without and within THIS sector.

Arguably, longs on both sides of the fence - general market and PM sector specific - have suffered ever since "Dow Theory" was widely bruited about.

Play gold and other commodities off against the Dollah. Then play the dollah off against gold and other commodities. Repeat and repeat and repeat and repeat ad infinitum for decades now.

In fact, when viewed properly, I believe this entire mega-spike in commodities the past few months IS "all about the Dollah" - but not in the way the Ninnies are talking about.

It is a form of anti-dollah REVENGE for past misdeeds, with the principal object getting the Gulf States to drop their dollah pegs once and for all, followed by OPEC as a group dropping its dollah peg once and for all.

The effective "Nat Gas OPEC," supposedly in pre-formation, with Russia and Iran as its de facto leaders, may simply skip the "basket of currencies" step and go directly to pricing Nat Gas in Euros - a DISASTER for the DOGs.

(By the way, Richard, I am dumbstruck - after all these years - by your reverting to inaccurate "it's" versus "its," presumably to show you are kosher in DOGworld. I thought we gave up on that bit of silliness a long time ago.)

Love and kisses.

[pkrebaum]

See my post in "Open Lawyer's Letter to Bart Chilton, CFTC Commissioner" There's evidence of possible conflicts of interests in the attached text files. (you have to log in to view them)

"I mean .... insider trading and profiting on speculation in the energy sector probably has one or two orders of magnitude more money to be made than the precious metals sector. PM manipulation could be part of the "smoke and mirrors" to hide what they're doing in oil and energy."

And by that I mean that silver and gold are the "standards of value", a reference value against what all other values are measured, just like NIST keeps standards of length, weight and time. Now imagine you wanted to distort the values of currency for your own nefarious purposes. Someone would notice as soon as they compared it with the standard. And the rise in the price of gold and silver has, over the last few years, revealed this to a good extent. BUT... now suppose you could sneak into NIST and modify the standards themselves .... you could really rip the people off !!!

We know the prices of gold and silver are being supressed. That means the value of currencies has fallen far farther than we think. And I think somebody's making tons of money on energy speculation, too.

[FedFixNix]

Originally Posted by webmaster

Subject:The Real Speculators
By: Theodore Butler

Overview: I think oil prices recently shot up, just like wheat and cotton did not so long ago, because a number of shorts, at the margin, decided to buy back short positions in a hurry. I know that the short position in silver is held by very few participants, so when they cover, it will not be an event measured at the margin. It will be an event characterized by a change at the core of the market. The short covering in oil, wheat and cotton are just a hint of what’s to come when the shorts cover in silver.

Link: http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1213126384.php

Another great article Ted. I am an avid reader of your columns.

I again, largely agree with your logic and rationale for the "big 8" manipulation in PMs. However, I strongly suspect that the "big 8" are themselves only agents for more powerful and wealthier entities who actually control the financial and monetary landscape of our world.

I am also bothered by how you arrive at the conclusion that the recent price jump in oil was do to short covering. That undoubtedly plays a role, but it seems you assign it the part of a dominant factor, and I'm not wholly convinced that is the case.

What if really deep pockets are covering their losses? Or what if they are playing "catch" with the PM markets. (Taking turns selling large volumes and buying them back, in order to drive down the prices)?

And to those who think these short traders are so powerful and in control, that they can extend the manipulation in silver indefinitely, please think again. What assures that the short manipulators will fail for sure, at some point, are the realities of the physical realm. The shorts can play all the paper games in the world, but the moment a wholesale physical shortage becomes evident, the shorts are toast.

I think you are probably talking to me here, and although I am partially persuaded toward your position, I am not totally convinced.

They (the manipulators) don't have to control the price indefinitely. All they have to do is control it long enough while the dollar is crashing to keep that door of escape closed to those they don't want to let go through it. I think that is all they want to do, or intend to do. And as for the physical shortage "becoming evident", I think that for anyone "with eyes to see" it is already apparent. I am only following the PM markets for a few months now and it is easily apparent to me.

Have you considered that angle? Or do you not think it possible that they possess such wealth? I do.

When is the last time you've seen a real central bank audit that accounted for who owns the PMs in the vaults? Any central bank? Who really knows if there is any gold still in Ft. Knox, for instance, and if there is, exactly who it belongs to? I don't think anyone can answer those questions, except possibly those who actually control those vaults - the central bankers themselves! And they are not telling.

I am not a sophisticated investor. I'm just someone with questions, someone who is trying to protect a small retirement nest egg from the coming economic and monetary collapse. I'm working to understand it all, and your articles have been a big help.

All our economic and monetary problems can be traced back to the door of the Fed, and the international banking club, and their affiliates and associates. (CFR, Trilaterals, Bilderbergers, Round Table, etc.)

Thanks for all you do,

FedFixNix

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes her laws" ~ Mayer Amschel (Bauer) Rothschild

[Richard]

Originally Posted by pkrebaum

See my post in "Open Lawyer's Letter to Bart Chilton, CFTC Commissioner" There's evidence of possible conflicts of interests in the attached text files. (you have to log in to view them)

I don't know if you were talking to me or the other person, but yeah... I'll have a look over those. I had a glance, but wasn't sure what I was reading, so I'll have to take time in reading. Thanks for the information.

[Richard]

Originally Posted by cassowary

(By the way, Richard, I am dumbstruck - after all these years - by your reverting to inaccurate "it's" versus "its," presumably to show you are kosher in DOGworld. I thought we gave up on that bit of silliness a long time ago.)

Oh please...

My grammatical errors hardly hold center stage to your morally bankrupt position that a paper currency has redeeming qualities.

[pkrebaum]

How about the following set of rules (laws) for the futures markets:

1) Futures contracts, both short and long, shall have a maximum term of one year.

2) Contracts may be rolled forward for a maximum of three years. It is then expired.

3) A contract's identity and final expiration limit travels with that contract and remains in force, even if swapped for another commodity contract.

4) On or before the final expiration date of a contract a short must physically deliver the commodity specified in the contract, a long must physically accept delivery of the commodity specified.

5) After delivery/acceptance that commodity may not enter the futures market again. (i.e. the physical holder must now do something productive with that commodity, such as fabricate it into something or break it down into smaller units for wholesale to distributors)

6) Commodities which are still in their substantially originally recognized form (such as individual 1000 Oz. bars from a 5000 Oz. contract delivery) must be stamped or otherwise identified as "Non Futures Tradable Material".

*************
The purpose of the above laws are to eliminate speculation in commodities by those who have no intent to ever use the commodity, without interfering in the true purpose of what a futures market should do, namely to provide liquidity and to stabilize and guarantee prices between legitimate users and producers of commodities.

**************************** Other Stuff ********************

Also, FedFixNix wrote:

"They (the manipulators) don't have to control the price indefinitely. All they have to do is control it long enough while the dollar is crashing to keep that door of escape closed to those they don't want to let go through it."

Agreed.

When an individual buys up a lot of shares of a certain penny stock and puts out rumors that "penny stock "X" is about to soar", then sells their stocks after others buy in and the price hits the roof .... they wind up in jail. That illegal scheme is known as "pump and dump".

(some might say it sounds a bit like silver, but our timescale is longer, our motives are not to deceive, we don't put out rumors, and we have the fundamentals of a dying dollar driving interest in our metal)

oh, back to the point.... "pump and dump" is illegal when an individual does it, but not when the Fed or the Central Banks do it !!! Even more outrageous, they publicly admit what they're doing, buying dollars and investing "repo loans" in the stock market. If this interventionism in our "free" markets isn't criminal then it ought to be... the lot of them should be arrested for price manipulation. And price manipulation is a crime too, except apparently when those with close ties to government do it.

Lastly, closely related to the above is the stock market "sucker rally".... the Fed gives things a boost up by shifting around some repo loans, all the small guys put their money in because they see things going up, and the big boys quietly sell their stocks at a profit. And they do it without anyone noticing, both on the sell and the buy. Ever wonder why the average investor gets in too late and sells too late ? Go look up "dark pool liquidity" and "upstairs trading". This is the private, non-public side of the stock market where the billionaires play and their billion dollar deals are made. To the detriment of the rest of us. Explains those 300 point swings sure enough.

****
Richard, don't know exactly to which post you're referencing, but if I'm talking/replying to anyone in particular I'll be sure to quote or name them.

******
some humor: A person's understanding of an issue is exponentially disproportional to the number of magnetic ribbons on their car.

[Richard]

Originally Posted by FedFixNix

Have you considered that angle? Or do you not think it possible that they possess such wealth? I do.

Mind if I take a crack at answering this?

I think the "sealed exit", while true, is obsolete at this point. But indeed they do possess such wealth to continue blocking the exit. Or do they?

They don't have any wealth on their own. They never did. That's why WE always footed the bill for their nefarious doings and careless issue of currency. So WE are their deeper pockets, the source of their wealth! But uh-oh...

We're broke and more so every day!

But all that money is still circulating. Where can it go, seeing as how we have footed the bill in all other areas EXCEPT the long side of precious metals? The recent and current bubbles aren't even done busting. And even if they waited for them to deflate to normal (but where would the money go until then?) it would be far too soon for another round of bubbles in those things to happen again so suddenly so soon, as that would force even the most dense of people to see that fiat currencies aren't a good place to put their faith. Can't have that of course, because faith and sense of stability is essential to a currency.

So I think Mr Butler is right on the money. The next bubble will be in gold and silver (not sure about the other metals), for where else can all the bubble money go? The way I see it, it's either their suicide for the central banks or gracefuly stepping aside in an engineered fall.

And so I think one of two things will happen.... Currencies will either become backed, even if unofficialy so as more paper goes into pm investment on the long side. That would set the stage for legislation to make it law again. Or, people will just drop the idea and trade pm as money. But I think the former would be the most likely. It seems a logical first step in the right direction, if not THE right thing to do.

This MIGHT be why the CFTC is doing nothing. Why bother when they might know that it's all going out the window in the near future, and knowing that if they play dumb will only encourage us to help put things into their place? THEN, once that is in place, do something that would ensure silver and gold backs the nation's currency.