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BullionMaster's notes and analysis on silver - Page 7
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Thread: BullionMaster's notes and analysis on silver

  1. #61
    Jake is offline Silver Seeker Senior Member Site Admin
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    Last edited by Jake; 11th March 2010 at 10:45.

  2. #62
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    From Gary Genslers opening remarks earlier today...

    Separately, the Commission is interested in hearing from the public as to issues related to the trading of futures and options in the precious metals markets, such as silver and gold, and to consider the appropriateness of position limits in those markets. I hope to have a public meeting on this separate topic in the beginning of March.
    http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/publi...ment011410.pdf

    I am sure that Ted Butler will have some analysis on this soon...

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  3. #63
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    i learn forex using newforexer

  4. #64
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    We are in a consolidation phase with the precious metals as we await to find out which direction they will go once this consolidation ends. Gold is nearing the end and a direction will soon reveal itself. China wants it to move downwards so they can buy at a more favorable price and are attempting to jawbone the dollar up and gold down. Their influence is large and growing, so they are a force to be reckoned with and not to be dismissed out of hand.

    Silver has much room to consolidate and conceivably could do so for quite some time. On the bullish side, it is above all the fib levels from the most recent move and is poised to go higher if (and this is an IF) gold breaks from its consolidation triangle to the upside.

    While I am long term extremely bullish on both gold and silver, most especially silver – I am short term bearish and will remain so until we either close above $17.80 on a daily basis or we have a correction which I think is more likely which will provide a nice opportunity to close out my hedge (DZZ) and to add to my positions.

    The comments from the CFTC Chairman yesterday at the hearing were somewhat encouraging in that they will have a hearing in a couple months about position limits in the precious metals. That could (emphasis on could) be very, very bullish for gold and silver (especially silver) if there are in fact position limits instituted and enforced. Personally, I dont think they will do much as they need to keep silver in check in order to maintain the illusion that “all is well”. For those of you that dont know my view on this, I essentially believe that they suppress silver as a roundabout way of keeping gold priced reasonably. This allows them to inflate the US dollar without causing too much turmoil in the market. If and when silver explodes upwards, the gig is up for the US dollar and they know it. That is why I dont think much is going to come from these hearings into position limits.

    My suggestion heading into the weekend is to be cautious. I am fully hedged in my positions and I encourage you to do likewise. The purpose of a hedge isnt to make money per se, its to protect your positions from unintended consequences. There are times in any market where direction is difficult to discern. In those situations, to have bets on the table that are unprotected is not investing – it is gambling. If I am wrong, and prices shoot higher, thats ok. There will be thousands of opportunities in this bull market to make money.

    Have a great weekend!



    Last edited by BullionMaster; 15th January 2010 at 08:57.

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  5. #65
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    BM - Thanks for this thread and it's updates! I read your stuff and Axestone's over on GIM. Maybe this will grow like Axestones thread!

  6. #66
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    Thanks BM for the charts and the effort. I feel this forum is at its best when someone posts a chart, article, or opinion and the "seniors" and others discuss it. When there is good debt on PM issues everyone can come away with something.

  7. #67
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    Its nice to be back after a long weekend. It would seem that we have picked up right where we left off. As I indicated last week, I think that the Chinese want the price of gold lower and their Treasuries higher. That way, they get a better exchange rate.

    Both gold and silver are stuck in limbo with both consolidating. The rise last night in Asia was short lived – or so it would seem.

    I am looking for a close in silver above $18.90 before I will close out my hedge. It has yet to show any strength in its attempts to move upwards to and through that level. I still dont know whether gold and silver are going to move higher once this consolidation ends, or if there is a C wave correction forthcoming. I am cautious right now, prepared for price to move in any direction. If prices move lower, I will be looking for a good spot to close my hedge and add to my long positions. If price moves up and through $18.90 I will be looking to close my hedge and add to my positions.


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  8. #68
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    Hello ALL and please dont attack me Jake I have been a long time reader, yet decided to finally get off my a** and post. I have to say that I have been greatly entertained by all the FIRIENDLY banter here. I have been a long time buyer and holder of silver. My background is really in real estate investing. Thank God I got out of 80% of my rea; estate holdings in 2007. Just a "gut" feeling, lucky more than TA's. Yet the market did seem to be sliding. As for silver. NOBODY knows what the future holds. But my "gut" tells me that its a better long-term, safe hold as opposed to most other investments. Im not a pie-in-the-sky guy. I disagree with the $35.00 by spring stuff- more like a $30.00 in 5 years maybe. No offense intended, just would hate to be disappointed come spring. Anything is possible yet 30.00 in 5 years is more realistic than 8.00 in 5 years-----Hello to Kat, MasterQ, everone else and especially Jake

  9. #69
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    So far today, the mining shares are not confirming an up move in silver...I take that as a confirmation that others also think there is more downside coming...

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  10. #70
    Jake is offline Silver Seeker Senior Member Site Admin
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    Last edited by Jake; 11th March 2010 at 10:45.

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