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Year end projections have been reached
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Thread: Year end projections have been reached

  1. #1
    Join Date
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    Default Year end projections have been reached

    Hi everybody,

    I have noted that the year end predictions for PM priced have just about been met and the holiday shopping season is now upon us.

    A few points to make.

    First, we "could" see a pullback from here before the next leg up simply due to the market appearing "overbought". Note that I say "could" because this holiday season could also be really good for PMs. I fully expect many people who now "get it" will be giving real money (instead of FRNs) to their loved ones this year. That said, the upwards momentum we have been witnessing could continue driving silver and gold to $21 and $1300 respectively by the end of the year. Furthermore, it might even "accelerate" just as congress acknowledges it plans to accelerate its spending on wars etc. which will only serve to further devalue to the USD.

    Second, there has been no discernible change in the behavior of our congress with regard to reducing spending while the dollar continues to slide. Many people who laughed at us just 6 months ago are listening intently now......realizing that at the very least they have missed a remarkable opportunity to turn their FRNs into real money.

    Finally even a 20% pullback in gold prices now would only bring us back to $1000 per ounce which is still an unprecedentedly high price for gold. But remember the cat is now out of the bag and so those holding gold who have learned about the value of sound money are not going to let that happen all too quickly. We have frank confirmation of this because the dollar index has slid only slightly since gold first hit $1000 and yet gold has gone up 20%!!! In fact, it would take a tremendous uptick in the dollar index to shake people out of gold now and quite frankly even then I doubt most people will sell gold for a price below $1000 unless the US reduced its debt to GDP ratio which we all know is not going to happen.

    As for silver the volatility remains due to its continued use as an industrial metal but we also are seeing it transformed into a monetary metal before our eyes. The movement in silver prices this year have been largely monetary as the close correlation between the gold and silver charts reveal. The 800 pound gorilla in the room is industrial demand which ironically will soon start to drive major upwards spikes in silver prices as industry leaders attempt to lock in their supplies ahead of the next monetary up tick.

    If Alf Field is correct, and this year suggests he is, we will see $3500 gold before the next major correction occurs. We will see small pullbacks before then but nothing that would shake me out of the tree.

    As always buy the dips

    Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

    Kat
    Last edited by Katwoman; 2nd December 2009 at 09:04.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    San Antonio, Texas
    Posts
    918

    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by Katwoman View Post
    Hi everybody,

    I have noted that the year end predictions for PM priced have just about been met and the holiday shopping season is now upon us.

    A few points to make.

    First, we "could" see a pullback from here before the next leg up simply due to the market appearing "overbought". Note that I say "could" because this holiday season could also be really good for PMs. I fully expect many people who now "get it" will be giving real money (instead of FRNs) to their loved ones this year. That said, the upwards momentum we have been witnessing could continue driving silver and gold to $21 and $1300 respectively by the end of the year. Furthermore, it might even "accelerate" just as congress acknowledges it plans to accelerate its spending on wars etc. which will only serve to further devalue to the USD.

    Second, there has been no discernible change in the behavior of our congress with regard to reducing spending while the dollar continues to slide. Many people who laughed at us just 6 months ago are listening intently now......realizing that at the very least they have missed a remarkable opportunity to turn their FRNs into real money.

    Finally even a 20% pullback in gold prices now would only bring us back to $1000 per ounce which is still an unprecedentedly high price for gold. But remember the cat is now out of the bag and so those holding gold who have learned about the value of sound money are not going to let that happen all too quickly. We have frank confirmation of this because the dollar index has slid only slightly since gold first hit $1000 and yet gold has gone up 20%!!! In fact, it would take a tremendous uptick in the dollar index to shake people out of gold now and quite frankly even then I doubt most people will sell gold for a price below $1000 unless the US reduced its debt to GDP ratio which we all know is not going to happen.

    As for silver the volatility remains due to its continued use as an industrial metal but we also are seeing it transformed into a monetary metal before our eyes. The movement in silver prices this year have been largely monetary as the close correlation between the gold and silver charts reveal. The 800 pound gorilla in the room is industrial demand which ironically will soon start to drive major upwards spikes in silver prices as industry leaders attempt to lock in their supplies ahead of the next monetary up tick.

    If Alf Field is correct, and this year suggests he is, we will see $3500 gold before the next major correction occurs. We will see small pullbacks before then but nothing that would shake me out of the tree.

    As always buy the dips

    Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

    Kat
    How funny and welcome back kat!

    I just was told the exact same thing from my broker.

    Targets for the year have been met and stop losses are now being put in place.

    Seems everyone is enjoying the rally but are a bit more cautious hitting these targets in such short order.

    Guess I wasn't the only one.

    -Q
    *DISCLAIMER*
    All responses are IMO and are strictly for reference ONLY! I am not responsible if you decided to act on any matter I discuss. Any understanding and action engaged after reading is purely yours.

    Have a Nice Day!
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    267

    Default

    Glad to see you back. I hope you will stay and continue to post. By the way, who is Alf Field anyway? Is that the hairy muppet from that old TV show?
    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. - Benjamin Franklin

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    A Fools Paradise
    Posts
    3,349

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverJim View Post
    Glad to see you back. I hope you will stay and continue to post. By the way, who is Alf Field anyway? Is that the hairy muppet from that old TV show?
    I will try not to outstay my welcome.

    I am sure you are just joshing with me about Alf but since some new comers really might not know who he is here is a link:

    http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/alf_field.html

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MasterQ View Post
    How funny and welcome back kat!

    I just was told the exact same thing from my broker.

    Targets for the year have been met and stop losses are now being put in place.

    Seems everyone is enjoying the rally but are a bit more cautious hitting these targets in such short order.

    Guess I wasn't the only one.

    -Q
    If a pullback greater than 10% happens without a change in the fundamentals it will be great buying opportunity.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sue-Z-Q View Post
    Good to see your i.d. darlin'.

    I was seriously worried about you! Didn't realize you'd said a proper goodbye and took a hiatus.

    That works sometimes, doesn't it?
    Thanks Suz.....I am glad to know people are looking out for me.

    Yes, deeper water is often more calm. About a year ago I told many people who did not believe in PMs that when I shut up that is when you really should start worrying.

    That said, this will be my last thread until at least after the first of the year since I have said all I have to say for now and there does not appear to be any major changes in the works that could significantly alter the market direction or momentum. I will not be posting unless I see something on the horizon that could significantly alter market direction.

    God bless you all and good luck.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    San Antonio, Texas
    Posts
    918

    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by Katwoman View Post
    If a pullback greater than 10% happens without a change in the fundamentals it will be great buying opportunity.
    Seems we are not alone in our thinking Kat.

    http://www.financialpost.com/news-se...tml?id=2293716


    Gold prices are currently high and markets should be careful of a potential asset bubble forming
    -Q
    *DISCLAIMER*
    All responses are IMO and are strictly for reference ONLY! I am not responsible if you decided to act on any matter I discuss. Any understanding and action engaged after reading is purely yours.

    Have a Nice Day!
    To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    236

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Katwoman View Post
    Hi everybody,

    I have noted that the year end predictions for PM priced have just about been met and the holiday shopping season is now upon us.

    A few points to make.

    First, we "could" see a pullback from here before the next leg up simply due to the market appearing "overbought". Note that I say "could" because this holiday season could also be really good for PMs. I fully expect many people who now "get it" will be giving real money (instead of FRNs) to their loved ones this year. That said, the upwards momentum we have been witnessing could continue driving silver and gold to $21 and $1300 respectively by the end of the year. Furthermore, it might even "accelerate" just as congress acknowledges it plans to accelerate its spending on wars etc. which will only serve to further devalue to the USD.

    Second, there has been no discernible change in the behavior of our congress with regard to reducing spending while the dollar continues to slide. Many people who laughed at us just 6 months ago are listening intently now......realizing that at the very least they have missed a remarkable opportunity to turn their FRNs into real money.

    Finally even a 20% pullback in gold prices now would only bring us back to $1000 per ounce which is still an unprecedentedly high price for gold. But remember the cat is now out of the bag and so those holding gold who have learned about the value of sound money are not going to let that happen all too quickly. We have frank confirmation of this because the dollar index has slid only slightly since gold first hit $1000 and yet gold has gone up 20%!!! In fact, it would take a tremendous uptick in the dollar index to shake people out of gold now and quite frankly even then I doubt most people will sell gold for a price below $1000 unless the US reduced its debt to GDP ratio which we all know is not going to happen.

    As for silver the volatility remains due to its continued use as an industrial metal but we also are seeing it transformed into a monetary metal before our eyes. The movement in silver prices this year have been largely monetary as the close correlation between the gold and silver charts reveal. The 800 pound gorilla in the room is industrial demand which ironically will soon start to drive major upwards spikes in silver prices as industry leaders attempt to lock in their supplies ahead of the next monetary up tick.

    If Alf Field is correct, and this year suggests he is, we will see $3500 gold before the next major correction occurs. We will see small pullbacks before then but nothing that would shake me out of the tree.

    As always buy the dips

    Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

    Kat
    Kat. I would like to thank you for all of your very insightful and researched comments. My last big Silver purchase was made immediately (within minutes) after reading one of your posts and it has been up ever since. The best I can do (other than pray) is to match my intuition along with others that I trust and then act on it. You are one of those people.

    BTW - To your point .. a guy at work said he would be buying gold for his teenagers for Chrsitmas. His first ever purchase of PM's.

    Thanks again!

  9. #9
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    Jan 2009
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    Indiana
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    Default

    Good to see you post Kat...

  10. #10
    ccjoe is offline Senior Member Site Admin
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    Orlando
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    Default

    Just remember everyone. When silver goes to 100 then 300, inflation will NOT eat up the gains. If it did, it would be stupid to invest in silver to just break even. MOST people on sites like this KNOW this obviously, but I want to help the newbies to understand.
    EG--In five months or so I've made 45K on my 140K investment in silver> 75% annualized or so. Inflation is basically 2%. So don't listen to the silly talk that you'll break even with silver and it's a hedge against inflation.

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