Back in the 1940’s, Ralph Nelson Elliott once noted:


At best, news is the tardy recognition of forces that have already been at work for some time and is startling only to those unaware of the trend.

So, rather than be startled by the news of the past week, I have been trying to warn anyone who was willing to listen that if you want to know what the Fed is going to do, simply read the bond charts. You see, the Fed does not lead the market. Rather, the Fed follows the market. And, the market told me back in late 2018 that the Fed is about to fall behind the market.

Yet, almost every single person who reads this article will think I am crazy for saying something so ridiculous. Right? But, that is why I was prepared for the action seen in the bond market this past week, and not shocked as most participants seemed to be. In fact, one of my subscribers laughingly posted an article in our chatroom entitled "Riding the Bond Rally No One Saw Coming," while noting how our members were certainly quite prepared for this rally in the bond market.

Well, for those that wear comfortable blinders and do not want to see the truth, this article I penned not too long ago may be tough for you to read. Yet, for those with an open mind to the actual facts of market history, it will likely be enlightening.

Not only have I outlined the facts that the Fed has no control over the markets in the listed article, I have also outlined that one can know what the Fed is going to do well before they do it. All you need to do is follow the bond market and you will know what the Fed will eventually do. The bond market always leads Fed action. You may even call the bond market a leading indicator for the Fed.

As you likely read in that article, this allowed me to buy TLT at just below 113 despite everyone telling me I was simply crazy “because the Fed is still raising rates.” Most were simply astounded that I would be so bold as to “fight the Fed.”

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1553614777.php