While there is some religious significance in Roman culture, the Ides of March is best known as the date on which Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 BC at a meeting of the Roman Senate.

At the time, a seer named Plutarch (some claim that the seer was named Spurinna) had warned that something would happen to Caesar by that date. For those that know their Shakespeare, on his way to the Theatre of Pompey, where he would be assassinated, Caesar supposedly passes the seer and joked “The Ideas of March are come,” implying that the prophecy had not been fulfilled, to which the seer replied “Aye, Caesar; but not gone.”

Caesar's death on the 15th of March led to a civil war in Rome, which ultimately led to the execution of 300 senators and knights to avenge Caesar's death, as Rome was thrown into a period of upheaval.

As I now look at the chart of the SPX, I am coming to the same conclusion: Beware the Ides of March.

The last several months have been quite challenging for most investors. While most did not see the decline coming at the end of 2018, I warned that a break down below 2880SPX would open the door to a 20-30% correction in the market. Yet, many did not heed my warning.

Rather, those that held their positions all the way down and all the way up are now patting themselves on the back for “outsmarting” the market. Yet, there was a tremendous opportunity cost to holding during a 20% decline. But, as Foghorn Leghorn would often say: “Don’t bother me with the facts, boy; I've already made up my mind.”

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