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Cashless society, negative interest rates and hyperinflation – part 2
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Thread: Cashless society, negative interest rates and hyperinflation – part 2

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2007

    Default Cashless society, negative interest rates and hyperinflation – part 2

    Imagine a country in which banks hold virtually no cash at all. A country where if you walk into a bank branch, the clerk won’t be able to help you make a deposit. A country where there’s a good chance that if you grabbed a wad of cash and walked into an electronics store or a major nightclub, they wouldn’t be able to assist you in buying a new computer, nor get your drink on.

    Welcome to Sweden, the land of virtual cashlessness! Although the Swedish Riksbank recently launched a full array of new and very colorful bills featuring celebrities such as famous children's book author Astrid Lindgren and film director Ingmar Bergman, cash usage in Sweden is in absolute freefall, down from SEK 100 billion in 2010 to SEK 70 billion in 2015. Several factors combined has led to this development.

    • Since many years, most Swedes above age 16 use a VISA, Master or Maestro debit card to settle payments, even for smaller sums below $10.
    • Sweden is, and has for many years been, in the forefront in both developing and adapting new IT technology and early became one of the most mobile phone dense countries in the world, with upwards of 60% of the Swedish population owning a mobile phone as early as 1999.
    • The Swedes willingness to adapt new technology is evident from the proliferation of a transfer system called ‘SWISH’. The SWISH app enables any two parties holding a Swedish bank account and a Swedish phone number to transfer money to each other instantly, with no fees. Even merchants use SWISH to accept payments. There are homeless people selling newspapers accepting payment via SWISH. In Stockholm, these homeless sellers have even been accepting credit card payments since as early as 2013 using a smartphone extension known as ‘iZettle’, also invented in Stockholm Sweden.
    • During the last few years, more than 70% of all bank branches in Sweden has gone cashless, meaning that if you walk into a bank branch in Sweden, there’s about a 70% chance (or even higher) they won’t accept any cash you try to deposit.
    • There are virtually no payments being made by cheques anylonger in Sweden as banks stopped issuing cheque books years ago.

    Tech loving Swedes

    Some of the facts listed might sound unbelievable and even absurd for someone not living in Sweden: No cash in the bank? Homeless people accepting credit card payments?

    Yes, the Swedes seem extremely willing to accept new cashless payment technologies, such as credit/debit cards as well as payment apps, and forgo old ones, such as cash and cheques. All with little or no suspicion towards these new electronic payment methods.

    Other countries have tried the same. Singapore tried, or at least planned to try a new electronic cash system named SELT or ‘Singapore Electronic Legal Tender’. In an OECD report issued in 2002, the Board of Commissioners of Currency (which was the sole currency issuing agency preceding the merger with MAS in 2002) outlined the envisioned structure of the SELT system where the goal was said to be reducing physical cash usage and its handling costs.

    As can be read from the 2002 OECD report, the SELT system was in a very early conceptual stage and only outlined in very broad strokes. Interesting to note is that as early as 1998 the BCCS held a strategic planning seminar in which it set as its ‘corporate vision’ the introduction of SELT within 10 years.

    The 2002 report further states that the SELT system was to be put in place in order to effectivize the cash currency system. The SELT system never came to fruition, and as is evident from the statistics displayed further down in this article, the amount of cash currency circulating in Singapore has increased immensely since 2002. As have the amount of cash ATM machines, where there were way less than 2000 units back then. The OECD report also mentions that although cash transaction costs in Singapore are extremely low, the cost to the economy was approximately SGD 656 million in 1998 and was projected to exceed SGD 1 billion by 2006.

    The BCCS envisioning a system such as SELT 15 years ago shows they were ahead of their times and that Singapore government institutions are very early in trying to adopt new technologies and are eager to make their government institutions more effective to have a positive impact on the market economy of the nation. This goes in line with the Smart Nation Objectives that Singapore has outlined. In contrast to Sweden, the Singaporean approach have been to adapt new payment methods such as e.g. card payments, while still being extremely welcoming to older payment modes such as cash or even cheques. The very safe environment with extremely low violent crime rates makes Singapore a nation that lends itself well to cash payments.

    However, as absurd as it might sound, the abolition of cash is slowly unfolding in many countries and Sweden is probably at the forefront of this trend. Although a majority of stores still accept payment in cash, there are an increasing number who don't. Swedish law doesn't require a merchant to accept payment in cash, which is a bit funny considering that cash is still legal tender in Sweden and legal tender normally means that what ever is legal tender should be good for the payment of all debts.

    Now, if a merchant doesn't want to accept ready cash, so be it. What is more shocking is that, as was mentioned at the beginning of this article, about 70-80% of all Swedish bank branches have removed all cash handling. All within just a few years time. No, it's not a typo. Walk in to a random Swedish bank branch and try to deposit or withdraw a larger sum of cash and up to 80% of the time you'll get rejected with a polite "sorry, but this branch doesn't handle any cash". These branches only provide services such as financial advising, housing loans, credit cards services etc. Most of it meant to get money out of your pocket and into the pockets of the banks'. Bank staff is pushed by it's management to sell house loans, credit lines, speculative paper instruments, and more savings accounts. The aforementioned has been made evident in the extreme case of Wells Fargo's latest banking scandal involving the concept of cross selling accounts with the goal of every Wells Fargo customer holding a minimum of eight accounts with them. Why? Because, in the words of former Wells Fargo's Chairman John Stumpf : 'Eight is great!'.

    All this means that if you open an account at a Swedish bank branch, you can only fund your account by either going to a branch that does handle cash or by transferring money to the new account from an already existing account.
    During the last 5-10 years in Sweden, M0, which is an aggregate measuring the amount of physical cash in an economy, has collapsed from over SEK 100 billion down to about SEK 70 billion.

    Last edited by valerb; 12th February 2019 at 06:09.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Uncle Scrooge's vault


    One option to break through the zero lower bound would be to phase out cash. But that is not straightforward. Cash continues to play a significant role in payments in many countries. To get around this problem, in a recent IMF staff study and previous research, we examine a proposal for central banks to make cash as costly as bank deposits with negative interest rates, thereby making deeply negative interest rates feasible while preserving the role of cash.

    The proposal is for a central bank to divide the monetary base into two separate local currencies—cash and electronic money (e-money). E-money would be issued only electronically and would pay the policy rate of interest, and cash would have an exchange rate—the conversion rate—against e-money. This conversion rate is key to the proposal. When setting a negative interest rate on e-money, the central bank would let the conversion rate of cash in terms of e-money depreciate at the same rate as the negative interest rate on e-money. The value of cash would thereby fall in terms of e-money.

    To illustrate, suppose your bank announced a negative 3 percent interest rate on your bank deposit of 100 dollars today. Suppose also that the central bank announced that cash-dollars would now become a separate currency that would depreciate against e-dollars by 3 percent per year. The conversion rate of cash-dollars into e-dollars would hence change from 1 to 0.97 over the year. After a year, there would be 97 e-dollars left in your bank account. If you instead took out 100 cash-dollars today and kept it safe at home for a year, exchanging it into e-money after that year would also yield 97 e-dollars.

    At the same time, shops would start advertising prices in e-money and cash separately, just as shops in some small open economies already advertise prices both in domestic and in bordering foreign currencies. Cash would thereby be losing value both in terms of goods and in terms of e-money, and there would be no benefit to holding cash relative to bank deposits.

    This dual local currency system would allow the central bank to implement as negative an interest rate as necessary for countering a recession, without triggering any large-scale substitutions into cash.

    Pros and cons

    While a dual currency system challenges our preconceptions about money, countries could implement the idea with relatively small changes to central bank operating frameworks. In comparison to alternative proposals, it would have the advantage of completely freeing monetary policy from the zero lower bound. Its introduction would reconfirm the central bank’s commitment to the inflation target, rather than raise doubts about it.

    Still, implementing such a system is not without challenges. It would require important modifications of the financial and legal system. In particular, fundamental questions pertaining to monetary law would have to be addressed and consistency with the IMF’s legal framework would need to be ensured. Also, it would require an enormous communication effort.

    The pros and cons of the system are country specific and should be carefully compared to other proposals, such as higher inflation targets, for increasing monetary policy space in a low-interest environment. We consider these issues, and more, in our research.

    This idea was first presented to the Fed roughly two and a half years ago: http://dailyreckoning.com/get-ready-...rate-policy-2/
    The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

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