Some time has passed since I wrote a more lengthy article, but not nearly as long a time as this grueling bear market in cryptos - now 12 months long, and counting. So, in this article Iíd like to rewind the clock a bit.

When we first saw our bull market top in cryptos, I did not fully expect a long bear market such as weíve seen. While the March breakdown confirmed in my mind that the $3000 to $4700 zone would be visited again, I did not think it would take this long.

Further, we had many false rallies along the way. You may recall that I followed the April rally with a long position just in case the market decided to break out earlier than I expected. The price action appeared solid. Sometimes markets dodge intermediate support when they are in a longer-term bull market. So I took a shot.

However, by June we were looking at confirmation of a breakdown, and I have seen no reason to be bullish since then. In fact, the best Bitcoin could muster during that time was a sideways triangle that persisted for six months. That broke down aggressively on November 14th and brought the market into our long-term support zone.

So here we are, recently hitting deep into that long-term support zone. We have a nice bounce off the lows, providing a 30% return off our low at $3120. But is this the final bottom? Regardless of whether I pinpointed this region or not, we have to see what price can do here. If we do not hold this region, my long-term perspective on Bitcoin will have been invalidated. Thatís not to say it will never be bullish again, but Iíll be looking at $1600 and $700 for a potential bottom, if our low at $3120 does not hold. I will let go of the long term count Iíve held onto through this correction.

This has definitely been a swing traderís market since our top last January, providing ample opportunity for traders to profit on both sides of the trade, long and short. In that spirit, I take a swing traderís perspective on this bounce. We have strong price action off the low, at least as strong as in April, which although it failed, provided a decent long trade.

But for this to turn into a larger bottom, price has much work to do.

So far weíve seen a rally from $3120 to $4230 in an impulsive five waves. Five waves versus three is significant, as it suggests we have more room to rally, if support is held.

I pinpoint support currently for circle-2 at $3320, although Bitcoin was not able to drop below $3565. If that level can hold, I mark it circle 2 which prepares us for the next degree third fifth wave, targeting $5700 and $5985 respectively.

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