I am still struggling between the charts that still seem like they want run high (silver and ABX), and the others who are now hitting their resistances and can turn down. Unfortunately, nothing has really changed any of these perspectives for me since the weekend.

The main chart to highlight is silver. As I noted with regard to silver, its downside pattern is really full. While that does not mean it cannot go lower, it does mean that looking lower may cause you to miss out on the next run higher. As long as all pullbacks remain corrective, silver has a pattern in place to run towards the 16 region to complete 5 waves up off the lows. And, should we pullback correctively in a wave ii from that rally, and then move back over the top of wave i, that would be our strong confirmation that the bull market has resumed in silver, and I would even be considering leveraged long positions at that time.

For those that have been following us for some time, you would know that we highlighted how ABX had a completed and very “fully cooked” downside count, and would likely lead the market off the lows. Thus far, that is what we have seen. Currently, ABX retains its potential to run to the 15 region in a more extended wave (i) off the lows. And, to be honest, if that consolidation was already all of wave (ii), and we rally through the 16.25 region, ABX may already be in its wave 1 targeting the blue box. Should that occur, and you want to add to you positions, you would use the 15 region for stops.

Keep in mind, when this market begins to run, they RARELY allow for a “gentleman’s entry,” as almost all pullbacks become quite shallow. So, clearly, I would not want to be shorting the ABX if I was looking for a hedge in this complex.

But, when I look at the NEM, I still have no satisfying bottoming structure, nor do I have a clearly impulsive structure that allows me to maintain a confident view that the bottom has been struck. The only clue that suggests a bottom may have been struck is that it hit the minimum target we had for this pullback in the 29 region (before I slightly lowered it based upon the micro structure I was following. The ideal target still remains in the 26-27 region.

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