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My General Perspective On The Market
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Thread: My General Perspective On The Market

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Atlanta
    Posts
    10,008

    Default My General Perspective On The Market

    As I read much of the commentary being pushed around the internet now, we see generally see a broad range: on one end there are perma-bears calling for the mother of all market crashes, and on the other are those who are pounding the table about the fundamentals of the market still being strong, which should keep us quite bullish for the long term.

    Doesn’t it amaze you that there is something for every extreme and much in between?

    If you want to be bearish, there is much to support your perspective. And, if you want to be bullish, there is an equal amount of information to support that perspective as well.

    But does that not suggest that all this information is really superfluous in the ability to determine whether you should be a bull or bear? While you can choose your personal desire from a smorgasbord of perspectives, would not one consider that to be confirmation bias rather than objective market analysis? And boy, do market analysts and participants love to discuss these fundamentals to explain why one will exert more pressure on the market than the other will, depending upon their initial bias.

    As for me, price means everything. If the price structure of the market is bullish, then I will be bullish. If the price structure of the market is bearish, then I will be bearish. And when the market presents a pattern that tells me I need to be extremely cautious, you will hear that from me as well, as you did during the August and September time frame within the equity market.

    I know I speak negatively about fundamentals. But, the main issue I have is that once you believe a certain “story” about what the market must do, the objectivity needed to accurately and objectively analyze the market will be compromised. So, while many think it is a weakness of analysis to ignore fundamentals, I only do so in order to assure objectivity in analysis.

    Anyone who has been closely following the market for the last three years would know that there have been a plethora of “stories” that kept many bearish during the 64% rally we experienced from 2016 until 2018. We had Brexit, Grexit, terrorist attacks, rising interest rates, North Korea, Trump, cessation of quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, trade wars (our last 9% rally in the market began after the trade wars began), and many other reasons the market was going to imminently top. And anyone who bought into any of those “stories” missed one of the best rallies seen during a two-and-a-half-year period.

    Because I do not buy into the “common speak” or the “stories” that sway most others in the market, I was able to solely rely on price to maintain a strong bullish bias during that run. And, to be brutally honest, I have not seen anyone able to identify turning points as well as my analysts have through the years. While we clearly have not been perfect, we have retained a very high accuracy rate (based upon what our members have tracked through the years) specifically because we will not be swayed by the same market speak that is taken as gospel by the rest of the market.
    As I read much of the commentary being pushed around the internet now, we see generally see a broad range: on one end there are perma-bears calling for the mother of all market crashes, and on the other are those who are pounding the table about the fundamentals of the market still being strong, which should keep us quite bullish for the long term.

    Doesn’t it amaze you that there is something for every extreme and much in between?

    If you want to be bearish, there is much to support your perspective. And, if you want to be bullish, there is an equal amount of information to support that perspective as well.

    But does that not suggest that all this information is really superfluous in the ability to determine whether you should be a bull or bear? While you can choose your personal desire from a smorgasbord of perspectives, would not one consider that to be confirmation bias rather than objective market analysis? And boy, do market analysts and participants love to discuss these fundamentals to explain why one will exert more pressure on the market than the other will, depending upon their initial bias.

    As for me, price means everything. If the price structure of the market is bullish, then I will be bullish. If the price structure of the market is bearish, then I will be bearish. And when the market presents a pattern that tells me I need to be extremely cautious, you will hear that from me as well, as you did during the August and September time frame within the equity market.

    I know I speak negatively about fundamentals. But, the main issue I have is that once you believe a certain “story” about what the market must do, the objectivity needed to accurately and objectively analyze the market will be compromised. So, while many think it is a weakness of analysis to ignore fundamentals, I only do so in order to assure objectivity in analysis.

    Anyone who has been closely following the market for the last three years would know that there have been a plethora of “stories” that kept many bearish during the 64% rally we experienced from 2016 until 2018. We had Brexit, Grexit, terrorist attacks, rising interest rates, North Korea, Trump, cessation of quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, trade wars (our last 9% rally in the market began after the trade wars began), and many other reasons the market was going to imminently top. And anyone who bought into any of those “stories” missed one of the best rallies seen during a two-and-a-half-year period.

    Because I do not buy into the “common speak” or the “stories” that sway most others in the market, I was able to solely rely on price to maintain a strong bullish bias during that run. And, to be brutally honest, I have not seen anyone able to identify turning points as well as my analysts have through the years. While we clearly have not been perfect, we have retained a very high accuracy rate (based upon what our members have tracked through the years) specifically because we will not be swayed by the same market speak that is taken as gospel by the rest of the market.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1540820806.php
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Zionot, Squashkenazi
    Posts
    11,497

    Thumbs down 0

    My General Perspective On The Market
    really big yawn emoji

    Yawning Face

    Yawning Face is a candidate for inclusion in Unicode 12.0…

    Some people can take a lot of words to say nothing.
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Atlanta
    Posts
    10,008

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverheartbone View Post
    really big yawn emoji

    Yawning Face

    Yawning Face is a candidate for inclusion in Unicode 12.0…

    Some people can take a lot of words to say nothing.



    Of course I rarely buy into what any of these guys have to say, but at least he is one of the Elliott Wave technical analyst, which is suppose to be one form of reading the tea leaves as well as so many others, but at least he's not a fortune teller pulling crap out of his a$$.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

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