For years now analysts, and the media have been trying to convince everyone there is no inflation despite central banks massive quantitative easing programs. Of course this is ridiculous. They just choose to ignore where the inflation has manifested.

In 2008 inflation spiked in the commodity markets contributing to the severity of the last recession. One could even make a strong case inflation was the main cause of the recession. From 2011 until recently inflation has focused mostly in asset markets, especially the stock market. But itís also appeared in healthcare, housing prices, insurance premiums, education, etc. So to claim there has been no inflation one has to willfully turn a blind eye to where the inflation is. Weíve actually had massive inflation, itís just that it has run mostly in sectors that people donít mind seeing inflation, namely the stock market. I think that is about to change.

As Iíve noted many times in the past, virtually every time the price of oil has spiked 100% or more in a year or less it has led to a global recession. The pressure that puts on the middle class is too extreme and discretionary spending grinds to a halt.

In previous articles and videos I have noted that the CRB is now forming a right translated multiyear cycle. Right translated multi-year cycles are indicative of bull markets. As you can see in the next chart all of the weekly indicators are turning up for the commodity complex. This is in stark contrast to the stock market, which I will show later in the report, that is starting to turn down. Donít get me wrong, I donít think the stock market has topped yet, but we are in the final innings of this cyclical bull mark

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