Monthly economic readings tend to be full of noise and are therefore unreliable. So itís best to save the excited assertions for established trends.

The US Consumer Price Index appears to have reached that point:




As most readers probably know, the CPI is widely believed to understate the true rate of inflation because of statistical tricks like hedonic adjustment and substitution. So when this index starts rising you know the real action is even more extreme.

The past 12-month increase was 2.8%, which is the highest in six years and continues a general uptrend that began in 2015. Whatís moving it? Oil, which controls the price of gasoline among many other things, is up big in the past year:

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