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Train Crash Preview - John Mauldin
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Thread: Train Crash Preview - John Mauldin

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    Default Train Crash Preview - John Mauldin

    The Beginning of Woes

    Lending Drought

    Political Backlash

    The Great Reset

    Wrong Track

    Today we will summarize something I’ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12–18 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be “rationalized” via some form of nonpayment. Whatever you want to call it, I think a worldwide debt default is likely in the next 10–12 years.

    I began this tale last week in Credit-Driven Train Crash, Part 1. Today is Part 2 of a yet-undetermined number of installments. We may break away for a week or two if other events intrude, but I will keep coming back to this. It has many threads to explore. I’m going to talk about my expectations given today’s reality, without the prophetically inconvenient practice of predicting actual dates.

    Also, while I think this is the probable path, it’s not locked in stone. Later in this series, I’ll describe how we might avoid the rather difficult circumstances I foresee. While it is difficult now to imagine cooperation between the developed world’s various factions, it has happened before. There are countries like Switzerland that have avoided war and economic catastrophe. We’ll hope our better angels prevail while taking a somber look at the more probable.

    The experts who investigate transport disasters, crimes, and terror incidents usually create a chronology of events. Reading them in hindsight can be haunting—you know what’s coming and you want to scream, “Don’t do that!” But of course, it’s too late.

    We do something similar in economics when we look back at past recessions and market crashes. The causes seem obvious and we wonder why people didn’t see it at the time. In fact, some people usually did see it at the time, but excessive exuberance by the crowds and willful ignorance among the powerful drowned out their warnings. I’ve been in that position myself and it is quite frustrating.

    As I outlined this, the steps seemed to fall in four stages. I’ve dubbed them:

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1526818380.php
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    Unfortunately he states those of us still alive in 2039 will believe there has never been a better time to be alive .

    I don't know, maybe, maybe not, I just can't imagine being strapped to a wheelchair, stuck in a corner of a Nursing home for the day with drool running down my chin and considering this a great time to be alive!!!

    Who knows, maybe I won't be stuck in that corner and I'll have the wherewithal to keep asking Bone if "he" hasn't kicked the bucket by then, where is that $3,100 Silver you have been predicting forever!!!
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    Unfortunately he states those of us still alive in 2039 will believe there has never been a better time to be alive .

    I don't know, maybe, maybe not, I just can't imagine being strapped to a wheelchair, stuck in a corner of a Nursing home for the day with drool running down my chin and considering this a great time to be alive!!!

    Who knows, maybe I won't be stuck in that corner and I'll have the wherewithal to keep asking Bone if "he" hasn't kicked the bucket by then, where is that $3,100 Silver you have been predicting forever!!!
    Predicting $100 (2018 USD) a gram for Ag in these days of super suppression is easy.
    I plan to still be alive in 2039, albeit a very lonely person, as 90%+ of everyone will be exterminated by the kabbal,
    and I expect that these will be considered the good old days.
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverheartbone View Post
    Predicting $100 (2018 USD) a gram for Ag in these days of super suppression is easy.
    I plan to still be alive in 2039, albeit a very lonely person, as 90%+ of everyone will be exterminated by the kabbal,
    and I expect that these will be considered the good old days.





    Wow, I'm still waiting to know when this $3,100 miracle is going to take place that won't disrupt anything in manufacturing as they all use such a tiny amount it won't even begin to impact their cost of production or our ability to purchase it?

    I know I wrote these numbers down recently, but not sure if I ever actually posted them somewhere, so this is as good a place as any for a little logic.

    I'll list this as follows: amount of Silver used starting with .001 of an ounce of Silver followed by the current cost to produce it at $16.52, then the cost to produce the same item with Silver at $3,100

    .001 - 1.6¢ - $3.09

    .005 - 8.3¢ - $15.44

    .01 - 16.5¢ - $30.89

    .05 - 83.6¢ - $154.46

    .1 - $1.66 - $308.92

    .5 - $8.26 - $1,544.62

    1. - $16.52 - $3,100.00

    When push comes to shove and you are using a tiny amount of Silver in your cheap electronic gadget, toy or tool and the cost of Silver becomes as much or more expensive than what your product was selling for in the past, what are you going to do? Stop using Silver and use aluminum, copper or something else as your competition has done across the industry.

    Of course this doesn't mean much other than anything still made from Silver will cost approximately 187 times more for the Silver content than it does today at a Silver spot price of $3,100 per ounce.

    Then you could try and just blow this off as it's insignificant for all of us and the hundreds of millions of Silver ounces used in manufacturing that cost in the single digit billions of Dollars each year would simply be absorbed by the rest of us for a single digit number in the trillions of Dollars.

    Then there are some of the more common used items based on information from 2014, lower, higher, same???

    cellphones use .008 ounces of Silver at 13¢ each but would be $24.71

    A lap top uses .08 ounces of Silver at 49¢ each but would be $92.68

    and on the heavy side which wouldn't be for long, a solar panel uses .7 ounces of Silver at $11.54 each but would be $2,162 but not for long as the industry would either use something else or shut down long before it reached $100 per ounce.

    The reality is, as the spot price of Silver would rise, manufacturers would seek alternative products to use and to say there are no alternatives is just being ignorant to reality.

    How many people still believe they use Silver on the back of our mirrors when they do not any longer and have not for some time, at least not the ones in your bathroom.

    Silver is still a better reflective surface, but it's not used on anything but the most expensive mirrors or special equipment.

    Does it make sense to produce a tablet that might cost $50 in Silver or use more sophisticated chips and reduce the amount of Silver needed in that device, there are always trade offs in manufacturing.

    What would the cost of Cooper be today if there were no alternatives to copper piping and there are a bunch?

    Bone for someone that claims to have an Electrical engineering degree, you seem to have been wearing blinders for several decades.

    Everything around us has changed, not just in the Electrical components field but everywhere we look.

    Your old TV's with vacuum tubes and Fly back transformers , then they added some transistors and then some IC chips. Then these chips became more and more sophisticated and required less and less of anything else.

    Now we have huge 70" TV's in digital 4K that are wafer thin and almost nothing inside.

    Commercial computers back in the 1960's were fairly huge with very little memory to work with and used very large disk packs that held very little data.

    our desk tops can run circles around just about anything from that time period and our cellphones are much more functional than anyone ever dreamed of back then or even 20 years ago.

    The same thing has been happening is all aspects of our lives, not just computers and TV's although electronic components has made our lives much more easy with these advancements.

    Our cars from the 1950's may not look all that much different other than the design, but it's what's inside that makes the difference.

    Of course we looked back upon those poor slobs that had to crank their engines by hand to get them started, but we had our fair share of nightmares also.

    Vacuum wipers that didn't want to work or refused to work if the load became to heavy and then just stopped because of a leak in one of the hoses or the seal on the vacuum chamber or the internal parts wearing down.

    Power windows, Power brakes, power steering, 6 channel stereo speaker system with 12 speakers.

    If you could afford a Cadillac, you were well on your way into the modern world with many of it's conveniences.

    Then they did away with all those dirty little chores we had to keep up with like points and plugs and coils and condensers and dirty carburetors.

    Did I mention the frequency that we had to change those plugs back then compared to almost never changing them today or the frequency needing a tune up today versus back then.

    The brake pads and exhaust system, what exhaust system, I haven't had to replace one on any of my cars in decades.

    Rust, is that just something that happens up north from where I came 38 years ago or has the under coating and paint jobs gotten better?

    Safety equipment, what safety equipment before the 1960's other than drive something bigger and heavier than the other guy was your safest option other than avoiding all accidents.

    Safety belts, then air bags in the front, then air bags on the side and then air curtains on the side, then air bags for your knees.

    Sooner or later they will be standard for everyone in the back as well along with much safer air cushions from side impacts.

    That is until someone starts to employ an instantaneous gel cushion to envelope you instead of smacking you in the face like a line drive so your not sure what in the hell just happened for several minutes.

    But a line drive impact is still better than trying to eat a steering wheel or dash board.

    I'm sure in another 20 years what we have today will seem archaic for safety with the speed of development.

    Did I mention all of these things are only available today because of the advancement in electronics and the speed in which they can make things happen.

    Well that brings me back to those copper pipes in the basement if your lucky enough to have them instead of that cheap Blue plastic crap that will work for some period of time, until it doesn't.

    Along with those really cool quick connect feature that allow you to just push your ends together versus having to actually solder something that will last a very lonnng time.

    I didn't claim everything was for the better, but that's what happens when you push the cost of your product beyond what someone else can produce something else for less that can replace it.

    Unfortunately far to many are all to happy to use these more expensive replacement products because they are easier to use and much faster, but it's a shame a professional is allowed to use such garbage when it's not necessary.

    And a builder that is allowed to use crap like this in new homes can be just fine with using anyone that can string plastic together versus a high price plumber and do it right so the home owner is not stuck with huge repair bills when water starts leaking through the ceiling, but it's a cost effective alternative if copper get out of control for everyone.

    Who uses aluminum siding anymore or even vinyl for that matter and compressed board is on it's way out also versus all these alternative sidings consisting of cement board and some really functional plastic products today that are thick and more labor intensive, but well worth the time and expense versus many of the old alternatives.

    It's not just the outside but the inside as well, with many new types of flooring to replace that of vinyl flooring in your kitchen, bathrooms and utility room.

    Now they have vinyl strips that overlap each other making them almost water proof, flexible as hell and some look like real hard wood.

    Now they have a vinyl plank that is interlocking and is suppose to be water proof and is still somewhat flexible for all your rooms with potential water problems.

    This also looks like real hard wood as does almost all interlocking flooring that you can install yourself, but like everything, you get what you pay for and some are really cheap and look that way also, not to mention what will happen with a little water spill you don't happen to catch.

    I'm not familiar with it, but paint your suppose to be able to turn on and off like a light switch is either available or in the works.

    Paint you can put on a wall so that little rug rat doesn't ruin any of your other walls with his chalk, you hope!!!

    I think I'll pass on all the automated stuff that calls for me to talk to something that talks back, I've been married for over 50 years, I've had enough of that crap.

    At least my wives have never secretly record everything I said and did in my own home and it could be used in a court of law against me.

    In closing, I'm not against all automation in the home, assuming I can ever get away with owing one of the robotic sex dolls that they promise to come out with in the future that is like what my feeble mind remembers.

    What's the difference between a 20 year old hooker and a 20 year old look-a-like sex doll, the sex doll doesn't know your 90 years old and doesn't care.
    Last edited by valerb; 20th May 2018 at 19:02.
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    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    Wow, I'm still waiting to know when this $3,100 miracle is going to take place that won't disrupt anything in manufacturing as they all use such a tiny amount it won't even begin to impact their cost of production or our ability to purchase it?

    {snip}

    In closing, I'm not against all automation in the home, assuming I can ever get away with owing one of the robotic sex dolls that they promise to come out with in the future that is like what my feeble mind remembers.

    What's the difference between a 20 year old hooker and a 20 year old look-a-like sex doll, the sex doll doesn't know your 90 years old and doesn't care.
    Wow, that was actually a good commentary until you veered off the road at the end.
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverheartbone View Post
    Wow, that was actually a good commentary until you veered off the road at the end.

    Oh, life could be a dream (sh-boom


    Your just jealous that unless Silver actually hits $3,100 an ounce, you'll never be able to afford one no matter how life like they are.

    Siri, I think your going to have another fond follower forever, just never develop eyes!!!
    Last edited by valerb; 21st May 2018 at 05:29.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

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