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Silver to Gold Ratio - Gary Christenson
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Thread: Silver to Gold Ratio - Gary Christenson

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    Default Silver to Gold Ratio - Gary Christenson

    Silver prices move farther and faster than gold prices, both up and down. When long term rallies begin silver often lags gold as in early 2018. The current gold to silver ratio at eighty to one is high. Fifty-nine to one has been the average for 40 years. Prior to 1913 the average was about 15 to one.

    An eighty to one gold to silver ratio shows prices for gold and silver are too low. At silver price peaks the ratio will drop to thirty or even fifteen to one.

    The silver to gold ratio (inverse of the gold to silver ratio) is a good indicator of silver price lows. Examine the following graph. The ratio sits at a long-term low in early 2018. The four other ratio lows in the past 30 years have been good times to buy silver.




    Silver prices bottomed in late 2015 and have built a base since then. A reverse “head-and-shoulders” pattern indicates a long-term bottom.


    CONCLUSIONS:

    Dollars are devalued every year. The late 2015 low in devalued dollars is similar to the multi-decade low at $4.01 in 2001.

    Silver prices are low in nominal terms and compared to gold. Silver prices are over four times higher than their long-term 2001 low at $4.01 and the ratio low in May 2003, but so are national debt, the DOW, NASDAQ and many consumer prices.

    Debt based fiat currencies are printed in excess. Prices for silver, gold, the DOW, food, and gasoline rise when measured in devalued currency units.

    National debt doubles every eight to nine years. President Trump likes lower taxes, higher debt, more wars and a weaker dollar. Debt will accelerate higher and prices for silver, gold, food and energy will rise much higher as the dollar is devalued.
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    Question The Chinese might have a hard time enforcing 50 to 1.

    Very soon the Chinese will be directing the global economy.
    Will 31.1 gram coins stop being made?



    At today's gold price of $1325, after the Chinese get their way, silver would be $26.50.
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

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    That's a pretty picture, China controlling the world with an iron fist. Gold to Silver ratio will be 50 to 1, no ands, if's or maybe about it. Then dictating that all Government rounds will be formally clipped during the manufacturing process to only contain 30 grams of Gold or Silver. Is the excess 1.1 gram per coin to be shipped to mother China as a fee for the privilege of producing these coins?
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    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    That's a pretty picture, China controlling the world with an iron fist. Gold to Silver ratio will be 50 to 1, no ands, if's or maybe about it. Then dictating that all Government rounds will be formally clipped during the manufacturing process to only contain 30 grams of Gold or Silver. Is the excess 1.1 gram per coin to be shipped to mother China as a fee for the privilege of producing these coins?
    Perhaps on their official PM exchanges.
    But if the value of silver becomes substantially greater than 1/50th that of gold, then the commies would have to change.

    Anyone who wants to buy a box of gold today for the long term,
    should buy 80 boxes of silver instead and wait for the GSR to hit 50.
    Then take 50 of the silver boxes and trade it for a box of gold and keep the other 30 boxes of silver to trade at a lower GSR.

    I'm waiting for a much lower GSR than 50 before I do any trading for gold.
    If the mines stopped mining for PM, the price of gold would not rise much as a result,
    but the price of silver would zoom.

    There is no comparison, silver has actually more intrinsic worth than gold.
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverheartbone View Post
    Perhaps on their official PM exchanges.
    But if the value of silver becomes substantially greater than 1/50th that of gold, then the commies would have to change.

    Anyone who wants to buy a box of gold today for the long term,
    should buy 80 boxes of silver instead and wait for the GSR to hit 50.
    Then take 50 of the silver boxes and trade it for a box of gold and keep the other 30 boxes of silver to trade at a lower GSR.

    I'm waiting for a much lower GSR than 50 before I do any trading for gold.
    If the mines stopped mining for PM, the price of gold would not rise much as a result,
    but the price of silver would zoom.

    There is no comparison, silver has actually more intrinsic worth than gold.



    "Yes "anyone" that just happens to have and extra $700K laying around that wants to buy a box of Gold, don't do it, buy 80 boxes of Silver instead"

    Just make sure you have a really huge basement which still has a brick floor so you can pull up the bricks and bury your Silver for the future

    or just buy 8 contracts and take delivery and have it stored in a COMEX banks bullion depository outside of COMEX.

    And no you won't have to have in tested to be put back in the COMEX to sell as long as it never left the Bullion banks possession.

    You will have to pay for storage of those 40,000 ounces, but that would be cheaper than paying for storing 40,000 one ounce rounds unless you are crazy enough to try hiding them.

    Plus the 8 contracts will be much cheaper to purchase than 40,000 generic Silver rounds and the loss in selling those contracts will also be negligible

    and by storing them outside of the COMEX inventory, you can feel much safer and they will be stored by serial number so that identifies your bars in case of any problems.

    When swapping retail Gold and Silver, it's not cheap with a premium paid to buy it and a loss paid to sell it and then a new premium paid for the new metal your swapping into.

    Plus you can't even consider buying government rounds for this purpose as the premiums are so high compared to generic Silver for your loss when swapping most of the time.

    The sell back price on a single Gold eagle is $1,314 and you can buy approximately 78 generic Silver rounds or 70 ASE's

    So swapping the best Gold product for the best Silver product will only net you 70 ounces when the ratio is 80 to 1 as it is today

    One Gold eagle today with premium cost approximately $1,369 and 80 cheap generic Silver rounds cost $1,345 versus $1,497 for ASE's.

    The sell back loss on the generic rounds is approximately $40 versus $88 on the ASE's.

    If your thinking what's $48 when your comparing generic versus ASE's, well that's for 80 rounds not 40,000 as suggested in the above case.

    The actual value difference for all 80 boxes of Silver would be a $24,000 loss trading ASE's versus cheap generic Silver.

    But that's only taking the Silver sell back loss into consideration, then you have to add in the premium for the Gold ounces your swapping for and your numbers keep shrinking on these trades.

    For anyone with serious money, they would want to buy and sell Gold and Silver contracts and take delivery and have it stored in a COMEX bank storage vault outside of the COMEX inventory.

    Keep all these premiums for yourself. The other alternative would be to buy and sell gold and Silver ETF shares which is even cheaper but might be more risky since you have no identifying serial numbers.

    Plus trading shares of ETF items can be done with much smaller quantities than the huge investments needed on COMEX.

    The bottom line on playing the Gold to Silver ratio, it's not a cheap game when dealing with retail products and you need to take all these cost involved into consideration as your not simply dealing with apples and apples..
    Last edited by valerb; 18th March 2018 at 04:47.
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    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    If your thinking what's $48 when your comparing generic versus ASE's, well that's for 80 rounds not 40,000 as suggested in the above case.
    That's all in your head, a box containing silver is what I refer to, not a monster box of American Silver Eagles.

    Something like this, but from a cheaper source, is what I was referring to.

    https://www.apmex.com/product/68585/...-w-box-capsule

    The boxes, a nice touch, are optional.
    Heck you could even use four tubes.
    Or if one didn't need the flexibility, start with 8 ten ounce bars.
    Why would I be speculating about stuff that's above my resources?
    A ratio trade can indeed be easily be done incorporating normal dealer premiums.
    FUD Vale? Say it isn't so.
    Why make things seem so complicated?
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverheartbone View Post
    That's all in your head, a box containing silver is what I refer to, not a monster box of American Silver Eagles.

    Something like this, but from a cheaper source, is what I was referring to.

    https://www.apmex.com/product/68585/...-w-box-capsule

    The boxes, a nice touch, are optional.
    Heck you could even use four tubes.
    Or if one didn't need the flexibility, start with 8 ten ounce bars.
    Why would I be speculating about stuff that's above my resources?
    A ratio trade can indeed be easily be done incorporating normal dealer premiums.
    FUD Vale? Say it isn't so.
    Why make things seem so complicated?

    I never said it was complicated, I said it wasn't cheap to swap back and forth between Gold and Silver using retail metal.

    This is something dealers suggest and people that never think anything through like yourself that buys into everything they say, would think it's a can't lose deal.

    Dealers are the big winners on this kind of deal making money on everything you sell and on everything you buy and they hope you'll be back again in another few years to do it again.

    And what happens to your deal if you get caught on the wrong side of these trades when Silver decides to do what Silver does every 30 years??

    You've just swapped a bunch of Silver for Gold as you figure it's time to make-a-deal and all of a sudden Silver goes volatile and Gold doesn't.

    Do you try and second guess the market and trade your Gold back for Silver and take a loss or hang on and assume it's just another tick that will come back down as usual??

    That's just what happened to so many that thought they could out smart the market and sell a bunch of their Silver in the Fall of 2010 when the price started spiking,
    surely is was coming back down any day now and then they would be able to buy even more with the profits they made.

    Of course many decided it wasn't coming back down and jumped back in taking a loss, while others took their lumps and stayed on the outside and ended up way ahead by default.

    However that was just another 30 year brick wall we ran into, what would have happened if it was for real and it didn't come back down for those that stayed on the outside
    or those that had swapped Silver for Gold and were on the wrong side of history. God forbid it would be your $600 Silver bull at that point in time.

    You see, it is not as simple as you would like to believe, there are additional risks involved in this kind of deal on top of investing in Gold and Silver to begin with.

    Now I believe in swapping Gold for Silver and Silver for Gold, but I understand the true cost involved in doing this with retail products as I've done it for real,
    not just some fantasy like you have because you've never had the finance to do it yourself.

    Plus just because the premiums on Silver are lower today than they have been in the past 20 years does not mean they will be tomorrow,
    it's only because of the extreme sales drought. With higher premiums comes higher costs to do these swaps and fewer rounds traded.

    But go ahead and show me how simple this is and always will be and how it's another can't miss idea.
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    Thumbs up buying and selling through a dealer....

    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    Dealers are the big winners on this kind of deal making money on everything you sell and on everything you buy and they hope you'll be back again in another few years to do it again.
    I don't know about being the big winner on my particular trades, but yes.
    And that is a very positive condition called capitalism.
    I don't begrudge giving the ethical dealers their due.
    Being resentful about that seems ugly to me, but likely an attitude prevalent amongst the kabbal.
    I want my LCS to survive and prosper so that they'll be there whenever I need their services.

    My only decision would be when (not how) to convert the 80 units of generic silver into gold.
    Instead of trading the 50 units of silver at 50:1,
    I'd be tempted to wait to trade 30 @ 30:1,
    then 20 @ 20:1,
    and I'd still be left with 30 units of silver,
    albeit with 2 units of gold not 1!

    At that time of my 20 silver for 1 gold trade,
    the original 2018 purchaser of that single gold box should be very happy
    because the value of their gold should have appreciated a lot
    compared to any Federal Reserve Note based account.

    That's my projection, and I'm sticking to it.
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverheartbone View Post
    I don't know about being the big winner on my particular trades, but yes.
    And that is a very positive condition called capitalism.
    I don't begrudge giving the ethical dealers their due.
    Being resentful about that seems ugly to me, but likely an attitude prevalent amongst the kabbal.
    I want my LCS to survive and prosper so that they'll be there whenever I need their services.

    My only decision would be when (not how) to convert the 80 units of generic silver into gold.
    Instead of trading the 50 units of silver at 50:1,
    I'd be tempted to wait to trade 30 @ 30:1,
    then 20 @ 20:1,
    and I'd still be left with 30 units of silver,
    albeit with 2 units of gold not 1!

    At that time of my 20 silver for 1 gold trade,
    the original 2018 purchaser of that single gold box should be very happy
    because the value of their gold should have appreciated a lot
    compared to any Federal Reserve Note based account.

    That's my projection, and I'm sticking to it.
    I agree your dealer needs to make more profit from your small purchases, but not the kind of profits from someone making very large buys in the thousands of ounces at one time. But then that's why it's far cheaper to buy and sell on COMEX or an ETF for anyone planning on swapping metal back and forth.

    I find it funny how your willing to feed greedy dealers who rip us off every chance they get and yet your bitching about grocery stores adding in the fees to cover the cost for credit cards. I have no sympathy for those people at all, at least the ones who abuse the buyers with fake shortages and massive premiums just because they can, it's called screwing your customer. That's capitalism at its finest and the need to never buy from the same dealer again.

    But for anyone setting on a pile of Silver over the past 20 years waiting for the ratio to hit 30 to 1 to make a swap would still be waiting, so you can guess how many trades would have also been made at 20 to 1.

    It came within a wisker of that 30 to 1 back in April 2011, but no cigar. Maybe in another 30 years as it tries to break through that $50 wall once again, assuming it can stay on its every 30 year schedule.

    It's been 7 years and we can't stay over $20 let alone make any kind of run that raises the hair on the back of anyones neck.

    But I'm still way ahead of what I could have earned keeping my money in a bank, it just hasn't made me a millionaire yet...

    But wait $600 an ounce of Silver is coming just as soon as they stop allowing people to buy short contracts. They can keep buying the existing long contracts from each other for higher and higher prices until it hits $600 on its way to $3,100.

    One thing for sure, I'll miss out big time on that $3;100 silver as I will have traded the bulk of my Silver for Gold and more cash long before then and I won't feel bad about it.
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    Arrow What goes around, comes around.

    Even if you already heard it a few years back,
    this video is worth spending the 13:55 to review the important concepts,
    ones that are de-emphasized by Western culture.

    Real Value of Silver - How to prevent your wealth transfer in a collapse
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

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