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The evil paper traders are your precious metal dealers - Page 6
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Thread: The evil paper traders are your precious metal dealers

  1. #51
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    May 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by chroNick View Post
    What's the difference between me silverheartbone? Well for one, I've never said that it is a can't miss investment. Nothing is certain in the financial markets. I said that it was a reasonable assumption that silver can go to $100, and that these are my opinions and my opinions only. I am not recommending anyone to buy or sell silver. I am not a doomsdayer personality, and I've repeatedly on this forum said that silver will have another buying opportunity when silver was below $30 and that I was going to wait for lower 20's and the teens to invest more. This is a silver forum where people speculate on the silver market. You are on this forum, and you criticize people like me that just posting opinions about the direction of silver.



    I'm really glad to see you have a change of heart on your prognostication for the next ten years but that really isn't what you said, as you can see from the following below. Then again, maybe that's just your way of saying the same thing.


    "Valerb - I don't know about 600 but I think something like 300 is likely. At least 100 is certain. The world did not come to an end and things were still functional in the US during the late 70s and early 80s. With all of the malinvestment for the past few decades, a sizeable recession is likely. But it probably won't be the end of the world. Commodities will likely benefit in such an environment, and considering all of the inflation post 70's, if we have the same kind of run up like we did in the 70's accounting for current dollar value as opposed to 70's value (pick any reasonable proxy, e.g. stocks, real estate, minimum wage, number of haircuts $100 can buy), I think it's highly highly probable to hit $100 within a decade."


    Quote Originally Posted by chroNick View Post
    While science is a legitimate concern for falling silver prices, I think you're missing the forest through the trees. Industrial demand for silver in photography is nearly extinct, yet the price of silver hasn't been hammered. And while scientists are trying to develop cheaper alternatives for silver, it may or may not come. The average roof lasts about 15-20 years. What if within 5 years, the price of solar roofs become cheap enough that it becomes a no-brainer to start buying solar roofs instead of conventional roofs? What if there is some new technology that comes out that requires a lot of silver? What if the demand for PMs go up due to inflation that it overrides any scientific discovery of a silver replacement? I understand that these are all big what-ifs, but any scenario that you can come up with on why industrial demand can go down, another scenario for industrial demand going up is also possible, so you can't just discount all the possible demand forces for silver and only focus on the demand decline for silver. Those are completely unknowns, and thus, it you want to come up with a theory of what fair-value silver prices should be, that can only be used as a risk discount.


    That has been my response to all this crap about Silver is a non-stop bullet train for all it's applications and they keep growing and that will never end, only the supply of Silver, to which I keep repeating the same thing about potential replacements sooner or later. Nothing is a sure thing and nothing lasts forever.
    Last edited by valerb; 15th May 2017 at 21:45.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

  2. #52
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    Michigan
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    Alright, well I did use the wrong, and I retract that statement, as nothing is ever certain in the financial markets. I would like to clearly modify it to reasonable assumption that silver will go to $100 within a decade.

    Having said all that, your findings in my poor word choice does not dispute the fact that prognostication is futile, nor are the exchanges a casino. It might be for some people who use it as such, but plenty of traders and investors make a lot of money and consistently beat the "gambling odds".

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by chroNick View Post
    Alright, well I did use the wrong, and I retract that statement, as nothing is ever certain in the financial markets. I would like to clearly modify it to reasonable assumption that silver will go to $100 within a decade.

    Having said all that, your findings in my poor word choice does not dispute the fact that prognostication is futile, nor are the exchanges a casino. It might be for some people who use it as such, but plenty of traders and investors make a lot of money and consistently beat the "gambling odds".

    I have to disagree, the COMEX is worse than a CASINO and that's why I refer to it as the CASINO from hell.

    I for one have spent a great deal of time playing in actual casinos over the past 35 years as more of a leisure activity and I have never run across any wager that can resemble that of a futures bet on the COMEX.

    I prefer the long odds game of KENO were you know what the odds are and the house does not control how often the machines will payoff.

    The primary difference between an actual casino and the COMEX CASINO is, a small wager in a real casino can reward you with a major payoff of up to 10,000 to 1 payback, but the odds are long and loss is limited to your bet.

    In the CASINO form HELL the bet is small but the payoff or loss is not limited and either can rise to a huge number in a hurry.

    However don't confuse me with most others, as I don't tell people not to gamble on the COMEX, the general stock market or on the ETF's. Actually if anyone wants to buy and sell Silver, SLV is probably your best bet.

    It's just gambling on margin on COMEX can wipe out a small fortune in a hurry, so I wouldn't recommend it.

    There is a disadvantage playing on the COMEX in situations when the market decides to take actions that "they" deem necessary for the good of the market, but such is the life of playing at that casino.

    Like most I find it hard to believe the COMEX action is really designed to find the true price for Silver versus acting as one giant CASINO that really has little to do with the value of Silver.

    The simple fact that virtually no one is out there to buy or sell but to just gamble is not a commodities market for finding a price.

    Having said all that, I accept the fact the COMEX is the way it is and there is no changing it for the foreseeable future, other than a shortage of Silver or investors overrunning the market.

    But the COMEX has their way of stopping the market from being overrun by virtue of margin calls unless people would actually put up cash for their contracts and that's not likely.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

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