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2017 ASE sales from the US Mint - Page 6
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Thread: 2017 ASE sales from the US Mint

  1. #51
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    As of Monday August 14th, the US Mint has shipped 235,000 ASE's for the month of August and 14,788,500 YTD.


    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    As of Monday August 7th, the US Mint has shipped 110,000 ASE's for the month of August and 14,663,500 YTD

    On a positive note, 110,000 shipped the past five days is 60,000 more than the previous five shipping days
    Last edited by valerb; 15th August 2017 at 15:42.
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  2. #52
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    As of Monday August 21st, the US Mint has shipped 425,000 ASE's for the month of August and 14,978,500 YTD.

    On top of last years decline in ASE's shipments from the US Mint of 9.3 million ASE's from the previous year total of 47 million, this years total looks to be struggling to beat the 2009 number of 28,784,000.

    I'm not predicting it won't beat the 2009 number, but it's also possible that it could be much closer to the 2008 number of only 19.5 million ounces.

    Of course as always things can change in a heart beat with anything happening or just one dealer placing a monster order.

    To make a point about the low 2008 number being a real possibility, the US Mint would need to ship over 50,000 ounces every available shipping day for the remainder of this year just to reach this number let alone the 2009 number which is an additional 9 million and another 112,000 ASE per day or about 165,000 every day.

    Considering they have only averaged shipping 28,333 ASE's per day for the first 15 shipping day's of this month, it's not a bright looking future

    This is continuing to be one disastrous year for retail Silver sales, so far!!!
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  3. #53
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    As of Monday August 28th, the US Mint has shipped 725,000 ASE's for the month of August and 15,278,500 YTD

    Looks like someone read my post last week and is doing everything they can to keep their head above the 2008 level.

    They averaged shipping 60,000 per day over the past week versus the 50,000 needed to keep ahead of that 2008 number, but have fallen another 525,000 behind the 2009 pace.

    Maybe $18, $19 or $20 spot price is the answer to higher sales..




    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    As of Monday August 21st, the US Mint has shipped 425,000 ASE's for the month of August and 14,978,500 YTD.

    On top of last years decline in ASE's shipments from the US Mint of 9.3 million ASE's from the previous year total of 47 million, this years total looks to be struggling to beat the 2009 number of 28,784,000.

    I'm not predicting it won't beat the 2009 number, but it's also possible that it could be much closer to the 2008 number of only 19.5 million ounces.

    Of course as always things can change in a heart beat with anything happening or just one dealer placing a monster order.

    To make a point about the low 2008 number being a real possibility, the US Mint would need to ship over 50,000 ounces every available shipping day for the remainder of this year just to reach this number let alone the 2009 number which is an additional 9 million and another 112,000 ASE per day or about 165,000 every day.

    Considering they have only averaged shipping 28,333 ASE's per day for the first 15 shipping day's of this month, it's not a bright looking future

    This is continuing to be one disastrous year for retail Silver sales, so far!!!
    Last edited by valerb; 2nd September 2017 at 00:04.
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  4. #54
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    As of Tuesday August 29th, the US Mint has shipped 1,025,000 ASE's for the month of August and 15,578,500 YTD.

    That's more like it, not 300,000 in a week, but in one day, now only 390,000 behind the 2009 pace and closing.




    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    As of Monday August 28th, the US Mint has shipped 725,000 ASE's for the month of August and 15,278,500 YTD

    Looks like someone read my post last week and is doing everything they can to keep their head above the 2008 level.

    They averaged shipping 60,000 per day over the past week versus the 50,000 needed to keep ahead of that 2008 number, but have fallen another 525,000 behind the 2009 pace.

    Maybe $18, $19 or $20 spot price is the answer to higher sales..
    Last edited by valerb; 2nd September 2017 at 00:06.
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  5. #55
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    For the month of August, the US Mint shipped 1,025,000 ASE's and 15,578,500 YTD

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 720,000 ASE's behind schedule over the last eight day's in August and 200,000 ahead of the 2008 pace.

    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's


    A spot price of $19 or more should really help ASE shipments, assuming the dealers are not setting on a pile in spite of low shipments out of the US Mint throughout the year.

    It's very possible that actual sales are worse than US Mint shipment records.

    With SD Bullion selling ASE's all year for only 49 over their cost all year and then they dropped their premium for a monster box all the way down to 24 each, that's saying a lot about the volume these dealers have on hand.

    Plus they are not the only dealers selling at lower premiums at the monster box level now.

    Are these dealers doing this for business, any business or a loss leader or just because they have too many ASE's and do not want to get caught with them at year end.

    Even though the profit on an ASE may be very narrow for a dealer, the premium is still way out of line with all other Silver products in today's market.

    90% Silver is no longer $4 and $5 per ounce, but going for 49 - 99, which is about where it has normally been for many years in the past.

    Yet the US Mint has maintained their high markup price they jacked up back in 2010 and is hurting ASE sales in a big way when compared to any other product you can buy for under $1 per ounce and often under 50

    We are not seeing the lowest spot prices this century, but we are seeing the lowest premiums by far for generic Silver, especially second hand coming back through the pipelines.

    Often selling for 25 or less and sometimes at even spot. That may sound hard to believe but when you sell yours for a $1 under and they turn it around and sell it for spot, it can be more profitable than selling new Silver.



    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    As of Tuesday August 29th, the US Mint has shipped 1,025,000 ASE's for the month of August and 15,578,500 YTD.
    That's more like it, not 300,000 in a week, but in one day, now only 390,000 behind the 2009 pace and closing.
    Last edited by valerb; 2nd September 2017 at 00:51.
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  6. #56
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    As of Tuesday September 5th, the US Mint has shipped 25,000 ASE's for the month of September and 15,603,500 YTD

    That's only 25,000 shipped over the past 4 shipping day's, so much for stacking orders or at least that's all they have pushed out the door so far.

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 1,025,000 ASE's behind schedule and 125,000 ahead of the 2008 pace.

    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's



    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    [SIZE=2]For the month of August, the US Mint shipped 1,025,000 ASE's and 15,578,500 YTD

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 720,000 ASE's behind schedule over the last eight day's in August and 200,000 ahead of the 2008 pace.

    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's


    A spot price of $19 or more should really help ASE shipments, assuming the dealers are not setting on a pile in spite of low shipments out of the US Mint throughout the year.

    It's very possible that actual sales are worse than US Mint shipment records.

    With SD Bullion selling ASE's all year for only 49 over their cost all year and then they dropped their premium for a monster box all the way down to 24 each, that's saying a lot about the volume these dealers have on hand.

    Plus they are not the only dealers selling at lower premiums at the monster box level now.

    Are these dealers doing this for business, any business or a loss leader or just because they have too many ASE's and do not want to get caught with them at year end.

    Even though the profit on an ASE may be very narrow for a dealer, the premium is still way out of line with all other Silver products in today's market.

    90% Silver is no longer $4 and $5 per ounce, but going for 49 - 99, which is about where it has normally been for many years in the past.

    Yet the US Mint has maintained their high markup price they jacked up back in 2010 and is hurting ASE sales in a big way when compared to any other product you can buy for under $1 per ounce and often under 50

    We are not seeing the lowest spot prices this century, but we are seeing the lowest premiums by far for generic Silver, especially second hand coming back through the pipelines.

    Often selling for 25 or less and sometimes at even spot. That may sound hard to believe but when you sell yours for a $1 under and they turn it around and sell it for spot, it can be more profitable than selling new Silver.
    Last edited by valerb; 8th September 2017 at 07:17.
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  7. #57
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    As of Monday September 11, the US Mint has shipped 75,000 ASE's for the month of September and 15,653,500 YTD

    That's only 50,000 over the past four shipping day's. Looks like we need a much higher spot price to induce people to start buying ASE's in quantity.

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 1,635,000 ASE's behind schedule and only 25,000 ahead of the 2008 pace.

    It's still possible to reach the 2009 level but extremely unlikely at this point unless ASE's shipments go through the roof for the rest of the year and it's doubtful the US Mint will be prepared to ship another 13+ million based on shipments so far in such a short period of time so late in the year. Knowing the US Mint has plans to start producing the 2018 coin in November at the latest to get a jump start on the January rush that happens every year, it's not likely they will be prepared to put that plan aside to meet any late season rush and put themselves in the hole starting off the next calendar year. They typically shut down all production for the current year sometime after the first week in December to switch all equipment over to the next years run.





    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    As of Tuesday September 5th, the US Mint has shipped 25,000 ASE's for the month of September and 15,603,500 YTD

    That's only 25,000 shipped over the past 4 shipping day's, so much for stacking orders or at least that's all they have pushed out the door so far.

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 1,025,000 ASE's behind schedule and 125,000 ahead of the 2008 pace.

    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's
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  8. #58
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    As of Tuesday September 19th, the US Mint has shipped 125,000 ASE's for the month of September and 15,703,500 YTD

    That is only 50,000 over the past six shipping days and with only 8 shipping day's remaining in the month this could end up being the worse monthly total for the year.

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 2,575,000 ASE's behind schedule and 225,000 behind the 2008 pace.

    I could see the 2009 number of 28.8 million slipping away, but it's unimaginable to comprehend going anywhere near the 19.6 million shipped back in 2008. Just one good shipping day can reverse that 2008 trend...

    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's



    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    As of Monday September 11, the US Mint has shipped 75,000 ASE's for the month of September and 15,653,500 YTD

    That's only 50,000 over the past four shipping day's. Looks like we need a much higher spot price to induce people to start buying ASE's in quantity.

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 1,635,000 ASE's behind schedule and only 25,000 ahead of the 2008 pace.

    It's still possible to reach the 2009 level but extremely unlikely at this point unless ASE's shipments go through the roof for the rest of the year and it's doubtful the US Mint will be prepared to ship another 13+ million based on shipments so far in such a short period of time so late in the year. Knowing the US Mint has plans to start producing the 2018 coin in November at the latest to get a jump start on the January rush that happens every year, it's not likely they will be prepared to put that plan aside to meet any late season rush and put themselves in the hole starting off the next calendar year. They typically shut down all production for the current year sometime after the first week in December to switch all equipment over to the next years run.
    Last edited by valerb; 22nd September 2017 at 11:42.
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  9. #59
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    As of Monday September 25th, the US Mint has shipped 320,000 ASE's for the month of September and 15,898,500 YTD

    That is 195,000 over the past four shipping day's with four shipping day's remaining in the month and unless they ship another 515,000 this will be the lowest monthly total for the year.

    Shipment for the year have fallen another 465,000 behind the 2009 pace and are just barely keeping up with the 2008 pace, but still behind that as well.

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 3,040,000 ASE's behind schedule and 230,000 behind the 2008 pace.

    It now appears mathematically impossible to reach the 2009 level of ASE's shipped for the year unless the US Mint is setting on top of a huge pile of surplus ASE's and there would have to be a dramatic change in the spot price of Silver to drive that much demand in such a short period of time.



    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's




    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    As of Tuesday September 19th, the US Mint has shipped 125,000 ASE's for the month of September and 15,703,500 YTD

    That is only 50,000 over the past six shipping days and with only 8 shipping day's remaining in the month this could end up being the worse monthly total for the year.

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 2,575,000 ASE's behind schedule and 225,000 behind the 2008 pace.

    I could see the 2009 number of 28.8 million slipping away, but it's unimaginable to comprehend going anywhere near the 19.6 million shipped back in 2008. Just one good shipping day can reverse that 2008 trend...

    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's
    Last edited by valerb; 2nd October 2017 at 21:48.
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  10. #60
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    As of Friday September 29th the US Mint finalized the monthly total ASE's shipped 320,000 and 15,898,500 YTD

    This was only the fifth time since February of 2008 that the US Mint has shipped under one million ounces in any month.

    The first time was 240K in Feb of 2008 and the next time was December of 2016 when they shipped 200k as part of this current string of very low shipping months.

    They also failed to break the million mark in April of this year at 835K and again in June with 986K and in August they barely cleared it with 1.025 million,

    Now they have followed this up with 320K in September and how does this stand with the 2008 and 2009 yearly totals?

    They are now 3,700,000 behind the 2009 pace, needing 12.9 million ounces in three month to catch up, virtually impossible at this point without millions of surplus ASE's setting in the US Mint.

    As far as the 2008 number which I'm still having problems believing what I'm seeing, they are now 430,000 ASE's behind.

    It's a small number to catch up with, only 3,685,000 in three months, but that's an average of 1,230,000 per month and they have only exceeded that amount three times and failed five other times this year.

    July was the second largest month this year with 2,320K and if they repeated that with the next two monthly totals they would still be 20K short.

    However I do have confidence in the US Mint having an ample supply on hand to meet the needs to reach this number as long as the shipments are done primarily in October and November as the US Mint tries their best to make sure they do no end up with a bunch of last years product on hand. They are not a full fledged mint that can simply melt them back down and start all over again. They would have to sell them to some one at a discount or scarp them as they only buy blank rounds from other mints to stamp. Plus everyone should remember the US Mint officially shuts down sometime after the first week in December for any further production. Then will continue to ship orders if the have stock available until the end of the year.

    That old saying that anything is possible is starting to run out of time, capacity and dealers being able to deliver no matter what.

    However it's never too later for the Silver spot price to take off, it's not dependent on the availability of ASE's or any other retail Silver product.

    Although the amount of 2.2 billion ounces of available Silver is kind of scary to think of a moon shot and as the price rises it will come pouring back in, some of mine included.

    ASE sales were on a really great role from 2008 through 2011 and then had a sales set back of 6.2 million ounces in 2012, but bounce right back with new higher records in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

    Then the bottom fell out in the latter half of 2016 leading into 2017 and making the 2016 year numbers 9.3 million ounces less than the year before.

    But this year they are not tumbling another 9 million ounces in a back to back years making it 18 million but probably at least another 15 - 18 million making it closer to a 24 - 27 million plunge from 2015.

    I can't say the same thing has been happening for generic Silver products, but with the premiums I've been posting this year and the sales I've seen, it sure doesn't look like they have been moving a lot of it either.

    I can say for sure that 90% has not been moving as we have been seeing premiums come down to levels not seen since before the 2008 fiasco and Tulvings demise.

    Low 90% premiums does not go well for the dealers trying to scalp us with high premiums for fractional Silver products, actually fractional Silver products did fairly poorly in the market place before 90% premiums went for a train ride. Then when 90% was no longer such a great bargain, fractional Silver became available everywhere. Now that 90% is becoming worth what it's really worth again and that's just above the spot price when they sell it to us and well below when we sell it back, Fractional Silver will either become a serious dust collector or they will start selling it for what its truly worth and that is substantially less than an a one ounce round and not as much or more no matter how cheap they are being sold at.

    For a stamping plant to say it cost them just as much labor to produce a 1/10 ounce round as it does a one ounce round, that might be true if they are a small time outfit using a simple press that can only stamp one coin at a time no matter what the size. However the number of rounds that can be pressed out of a more serious press depends on the size of the products. The smaller the size the more products that can be stamped in one pressing, so you can imagine how many 1/10th ounce rounds might be able to be pressed in place of say ten ounce ounce rounds per press.

    In other words, small time stamping plants should not get involved with fractional Silver products if they are only stamping one coin at a time in today's competitive market place.

    I really want to see fractional Silver premiums come down for quantity purchases where the dealer can still makes his profit on volume of ounces sold and the investors can stack up fractional Silver without having to pay a high premium, after all, fractional Silver is still an ounce of Silver when you go to sell it. It's just an extra bonus to have incase the zombies ever roam the planet and you would need physical Silver in small denominations, but only if your paying reasonable premiums for it.

    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2012 pace is 33.7 million ASE's
    The 2010 pace is 34.7 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's
    The 2011 pace is 39.9 million ASE's
    The 2013 pace is 42.7 million ASE's
    The 2014 pace is 44.0 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's


    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    As of Monday September 25th, the US Mint has shipped 320,000 ASE's for the month of September and 15,898,500 YTD

    That is 195,000 over the past four shipping day's with four shipping day's remaining in the month and unless they ship another 515,000 this will be the lowest monthly total for the year.

    Shipment for the year have fallen another 465,000 behind the 2009 pace and are just barely keeping up with the 2008 pace, but still behind that as well.

    Looking at exceeding that 2009 yearly target, the shipments are now 3,040,000 ASE's behind schedule and 230,000 behind the 2008 pace.

    It now appears mathematically impossible to reach the 2009 level of ASE's shipped for the year unless the US Mint is setting on top of a huge pile of surplus ASE's and there would have to be a dramatic change in the spot price of Silver to drive that much demand in such a short period of time.



    The 2008 pace is 19.6 million ASE's
    The 2009 pace is 28.8 million ASE's
    The 2016 pace is 37.7 million ASE's
    The 2015 pace is 47.0 million ASE's
    Last edited by valerb; 2nd October 2017 at 23:58.
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