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Silver Keep It Simple! Part 2 - Page 2
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Thread: Silver Keep It Simple! Part 2

  1. #11
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    Default Tally Sticks

    Quote Originally Posted by silverheartbone View Post
    Two points, the first addresses the topic at hand.

    1) Eliminate all unnecessary derivatives. (Necessary for JPM or GS does not count, they can and should fail.)

    The second addresses a point made earlier by Vale.

    2) Dude we are already in WW III. (Just because you are not the one suffering a loss, and the war is illegal, does not mean that we are not at war.)
    Good exchange! Couple of points. You cannot use 20-20 hindsight to pick stocks, either good ones or bad ones! Use indexes. And gold and silver SHOULD under perform stocks as metals are only sound money which has a store of value (unlike fiat currency). They are NOT an investment. So the comparison is not with stocks, it is with fiat currency. Since 1913 the Dollar has lost over 95% of its value against gold. QED.
    Second point. The tally stick story makes our point! It was fiat currency. It only had validity because the King (who was short of money) would only accept it in payment for taxes. He essentially printed money. That is EXACTLY the validity of our current fiat currency. The Government imposes validity by requiring it to be used as a numeraire and a medium of exchange. But the third utility of money, to be a store of value, is breaking down due to currency debasement. So we have the choice of buying gold and silver as an alternate to fiat currency. And lets not forget, for every one of the 726 years when the tally sticks circulated, by FAR the biggest currency in circulation was gold and silver coins. But you do raise one issue. There is not enough silver and gold to be used as a universal currency. But there is a solution. Don't impose a denomination on the metals. Allow the price to float up but not down. (there is exhaustive rationale for this) And you can use the metals again. The price may rise, but so what? A fine diamond of one carat weight is worth $5000. So if a tenth of an ounce of gold (way more than a carat of diamond) was worth $10,000 fiat dollars we would have no supply problems, and a float would cope with the need for expanded money supply. Liberate your minds!! Don't say it can't happen. ANYTHING can happen!

  2. #12
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by silverheartbone View Post
    Two points, the first addresses the topic at hand.

    1) Eliminate all unnecessary derivatives. (Necessary for JPM or GS does not count, they can and should fail.)

    The second addresses a point made earlier by Vale.

    2) Dude we are already in WW III. (Just because you are not the one suffering a loss, and the war is illegal, does not mean that we are not at war.)


    Boy do you really have a fairly tale sense of reality. With somewhere between one and two million deaths (and that seems to be really stretching it) in the two middle East wars over the past decade, it's just a local war and can't even begin to compare with a world war. WWII had logged up to 70 million deaths in 6 years with up to 25 million of them being combat troops.

    How can you even think of comparing WWII with any wars that have taken place since. Of course it may seem like WWII when it's taking place in your own backyard, but the body counts and mass destruction have not been anywhere near, even on a local basis. No cities have been carpet bombed into a pile of ruble. Many have suffered severe damage due to house to house fighting. Not the same as destroying everything in town.

    That is, no one can compare Fallujah with what it was like in Dresden or any one of a number of cities that were carpet bombed during WWII.

    Now in the modern day of Nuclear weapons, we could see more people die in a matter of a couple hours than we saw in all of WWII.

    Even without using Nuclear weapons, a major conflict between all the major military powers would see massive losses on a scale unseen in military history, for a short period of time. I don't believe we will ever see the kinds of numbers lost in WWII from troops fighting on the ground. Air superiority is so advanced today that those on the ground are nothing more than setting ducks. So I doubt anyone will be calling up troops for years to die in a slaughter. That's not to say there won't be resistance, but not from a trained standing army.

    For the families of those lost in war, it really doesn't matter if your son or daughter was only one of 258 that died in the first Gulf War or one of 400,000 that died in the WWII. It hurts just the same.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Phillips View Post
    Good exchange! Couple of points. You cannot use 20-20 hindsight to pick stocks, either good ones or bad ones! Use indexes. And gold and silver SHOULD under perform stocks as metals are only sound money which has a store of value (unlike fiat currency). They are NOT an investment. So the comparison is not with stocks, it is with fiat currency. Since 1913 the Dollar has lost over 95% of its value against gold. QED.
    Second point. The tally stick story makes our point! It was fiat currency. It only had validity because the King (who was short of money) would only accept it in payment for taxes. He essentially printed money. That is EXACTLY the validity of our current fiat currency. The Government imposes validity by requiring it to be used as a numeraire and a medium of exchange. But the third utility of money, to be a store of value, is breaking down due to currency debasement. So we have the choice of buying gold and silver as an alternate to fiat currency. And lets not forget, for every one of the 726 years when the tally sticks circulated, by FAR the biggest currency in circulation was gold and silver coins. But you do raise one issue. There is not enough silver and gold to be used as a universal currency. But there is a solution. Don't impose a denomination on the metals. Allow the price to float up but not down. (there is exhaustive rationale for this) And you can use the metals again. The price may rise, but so what? A fine diamond of one carat weight is worth $5000. So if a tenth of an ounce of gold (way more than a carat of diamond) was worth $10,000 fiat dollars we would have no supply problems, and a float would cope with the need for expanded money supply. Liberate your minds!! Don't say it can't happen. ANYTHING can happen!


    But what are you going to use for change when the price rises. People are not going to want to take a full $450 worth of groceries for their half ounce Silver coin. How does anyone buy a simple bottle of Coke or a six pack of beer? We would revert right back into some kind of fiat system and say it was backed by something else and if anyone is dumb enough to believe the government wouldn't print far more of those fiat bills than they have something else to back it, well...

    The point is, Gold and Silver would have to be measured against something other than themselves as a base to measure everything else or the price of Gold and Silver could never rise, if they had nothing to rise against. Of course everyone could simply keep changing their prices in a market gone haywire, but to keep everything in some kind of order, there would have to be some base point to everything.

    If you don't use paper money, what would people use other than Gold and Silver, since there will never be enough to go around, no matter how high the price rises.

    You have over 300 million people that need Gold and or Silver today and only a hand full of us have any that will do any good. What will the other 90+ percent do until someone can figure out how to make something work. They can't be paid, they can't buy anything, they can't pay any bills. The real answer is, the government will issue a new currency, just like every other government of any size has before. The only thing preventing that is if there is no government because our country has been destroyed by a war or some natural disaster.

    This country and no other country can survive on a Dollar here today and gone tomorrow, except maybe some backwards third world country where they can still get their hands on another countries currency.

    Just think about millions on food stamp and no longer getting any income or food stamps, because the government is out of business. What are their chances of obtaining any Gold or Silver to do anything at all?

    Are the tens of million living from paycheck to paycheck all that much different? Cut out their income source and where will they ever have to opportunity to obtain any Gold or Silver.

    The grocery stores only carry a few day's worth of food and it will take forever for the local people to come up with some kind of system where they can obtain something of value to purchase food. So what are the grocery stores to do and what will all those hungry people do in the mean time?

    There are a thousand reasons why we are not going to see Gold and Silver being used as money in place of a fiat currency, short of a destroyed country, economy and currency. Then it will be every man for himself.

    Short of an apocalypse, I'm not buying it. But then, that's what my guns and ammo and everything else is for. You just never know.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

  4. #14
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    Default

    Those few doomsdayers who stocked up on guns and ammo are sitting on top of the world right now. Have you been to a gun store or sporting goods department in a department store? The guns are sold out, and the ammo is all gone except for only the unpopular calibers that no one shoots. Gone. Sold out. And no idea of when or even IF they will get more in stock.
    "If you don't know where you're going, you might end up some place else."
    - Yogi Berra

  5. #15
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    Default Casualties and Gold as currency

    Quote Originally Posted by Xizang View Post
    Those few doomsdayers who stocked up on guns and ammo are sitting on top of the world right now. Have you been to a gun store or sporting goods department in a department store? The guns are sold out, and the ammo is all gone except for only the unpopular calibers that no one shoots. Gone. Sold out. And no idea of when or even IF they will get more in stock.
    Val is right. The US had, in comparison to Germany, Japan and Russia, relatively light military casualties in WW2 and almost no civilian ones. The US still lost armed forces personnel at the rate of 231 a day throughout WW2, (Russia lost 10,000 a day; civilian and military) so the US Iraq war casualties would represent less than 3 weeks of WW2 casualties. Don't get me wrong, every one lost in both conflicts was a tragedy. But the scale is completely different.

    Val is also right on the supply of precious metals. Gold and silver will never be universal global currencies. But that does not mean they will not back (or partially back) a reserve currency or that they will be exponentially revalued. I believe that is what the Chinese are planning for the Yuan. And, sadly, most of the World's population will not be able to buy land, or for that matter, guns and ammo either. That is not the point. Those of us who can afford choices CAN buy tangibles, and will profit from the mass debasement of currency which is happening as we speak. There is no precedent in World history for this level of monetary expansion across the entire globe. India (with at least 18,000 tons of gold) will be the big winner in the flight to tangibles, and of course heavily indebted citizens of the West who will see their debts melt away in real terms.

  6. #16
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Xizang View Post
    Those few doomsdayers who stocked up on guns and ammo are sitting on top of the world right now. Have you been to a gun store or sporting goods department in a department store? The guns are sold out, and the ammo is all gone except for only the unpopular calibers that no one shoots. Gone. Sold out. And no idea of when or even IF they will get more in stock.

    I haven't had the need to go shopping for guns or ammo. Like my Silver, I've been ahead of the pack and bought when it was cheap.

    Although I still like the concept of adding a semi-automatic shotgun that I can use a magazine with and doesn't kick, like that Russian model. You can buy guns online and have them shipped to your local dealer and you can buy ammo online and have it shipped direct to you. As far as the quality and price, I can't really compare it, as I have nothing to compare it to. I haven't bought anything in several years, except a few boxes of ammo for my pistol and that's cheap range ammo. I keep the good stuff for the zombies, but even cheap range ammo traveling at high speed can hurt like a SOB.
    Last edited by valerb; 9th April 2013 at 04:15.
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  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Phillips View Post
    Val is right. The US had, in comparison to Germany, Japan and Russia, relatively light military casualties in WW2 and almost no civilian ones. The US still lost armed forces personnel at the rate of 231 a day throughout WW2, (Russia lost 10,000 a day; civilian and military) so the US Iraq war casualties would represent less than 3 weeks of WW2 casualties. Don't get me wrong, every one lost in both conflicts was a tragedy. But the scale is completely different.

    Val is also right on the supply of precious metals. Gold and silver will never be universal global currencies. But that does not mean they will not back (or partially back) a reserve currency or that they will be exponentially revalued. I believe that is what the Chinese are planning for the Yuan. And, sadly, most of the World's population will not be able to buy land, or for that matter, guns and ammo either. That is not the point. Those of us who can afford choices CAN buy tangibles, and will profit from the mass debasement of currency which is happening as we speak. There is no precedent in World history for this level of monetary expansion across the entire globe. India (with at least 18,000 tons of gold) will be the big winner in the flight to tangibles, and of course heavily indebted citizens of the West who will see their debts melt away in real terms.

    People lucky enough to not already own a home and able to buy one have been cashing in with their paper backs for several years now. Depressed housing prices and record low interests rates can't be beat, unless they go even lower or you lose your ability to keep up the payments. I agree that large purchase items like a home and auto's will see their payments basically melt away with high inflation, but that won't let the credit card holders off the hook. They've been expecting this for years and if you do not have a ceiling in your state, look out. I wouldn't expect the federal government to come to anyone's aid, except the bankers. My advise, payoff your credit card debt first and then worry about paying down your home mortgage.

    The Dollar will in all likelihood be replaced by a new currency one day. That could be in two years or 50 years. Rather that is a US issued or IMF issued currency, who knows what lurks in the hearts of evil men.

    High inflation is something everyone can count on sooner or later, it's a matter of life and we all experience it over and over again. Sometimes worse than others, but it keeps coming back.

    Will we ever experience hyper-inflation, we'll just have to wait and see.

    As far as world governments dropping their currencies and starting over with one backed by Gold, that will change the balance of power for many countries, assuming their actual Gold holdings within their respective countries is true. Italy will become an instant power house, likewise so will the US, especially after they confiscate all of the Gold in the ETF's within their shores and in everyone's personal possession. You sure can't expect any government not to go after all the Gold possible, as it will determine a countries status in the world. Throw Silver into the mix and there goes our stash as well, so I have no desire to see anything backed by Silver or see a physical shortage of Silver for that matter. Either one will in all likelihood require them to come after our stacks and we have to know it will be at very low spot prices before the explosion. I want my Silver to be in demand by other buyers, not demanded by my government to be sold to them for a song and dance.

    I also believe it is foolish to think they will allow the price of Gold to go through the ceiling for all of us. The governments might set it at some fictitious levels to try and make it fit, but they sure are not going to actually pay mines that kind of price or are they going to allow the people to sell their gold at those levels. That would be the United States of Utopia and we don't live in that country.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

  8. #18
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    Default Confiscation

    Quote Originally Posted by valerb View Post
    People lucky enough to not already own a home and able to buy one have been cashing in with their paper backs for several years now. Depressed housing prices and record low interests rates can't be beat, unless they go even lower or you lose your ability to keep up the payments. I agree that large purchase items like a home and auto's will see their payments basically melt away with high inflation, but that won't let the credit card holders off the hook. They've been expecting this for years and if you do not have a ceiling in your state, look out. I wouldn't expect the federal government to come to anyone's aid, except the bankers. My advise, payoff your credit card debt first and then worry about paying down your home mortgage.

    The Dollar will in all likelihood be replaced by a new currency one day. That could be in two years or 50 years. Rather that is a US issued or IMF issued currency, who knows what lurks in the hearts of evil men.

    High inflation is something everyone can count on sooner or later, it's a matter of life and we all experience it over and over again. Sometimes worse than others, but it keeps coming back.

    Will we ever experience hyper-inflation, we'll just have to wait and see.

    As far as world governments dropping their currencies and starting over with one backed by Gold, that will change the balance of power for many countries, assuming their actual Gold holdings within their respective countries is true. Italy will become an instant power house, likewise so will the US, especially after they confiscate all of the Gold in the ETF's within their shores and in everyone's personal possession. You sure can't expect any government not to go after all the Gold possible, as it will determine a countries status in the world. Throw Silver into the mix and there goes our stash as well, so I have no desire to see anything backed by Silver or see a physical shortage of Silver for that matter. Either one will in all likelihood require them to come after our stacks and we have to know it will be at very low spot prices before the explosion. I want my Silver to be in demand by other buyers, not demanded by my government to be sold to them for a song and dance.

    I also believe it is foolish to think they will allow the price of Gold to go through the ceiling for all of us. The governments might set it at some fictitious levels to try and make it fit, but they sure are not going to actually pay mines that kind of price or are they going to allow the people to sell their gold at those levels. That would be the United States of Utopia and we don't live in that country.
    Gold may be confiscated, though I think it highly unlikely. They could certainly grab the gold in GLD, if there is any. Silver is a different matter. So much is needed for industrial and medical uses that policing that would be hard. Plus there is not much economic rationale.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Phillips View Post
    Gold may be confiscated, though I think it highly unlikely. They could certainly grab the gold in GLD, if there is any. Silver is a different matter. So much is needed for industrial and medical uses that policing that would be hard. Plus there is not much economic rationale.

    That's pretty much been my argument, they "will" go after the ETF's first as well as the Gold setting in customer accounts at COMEX. Easy pickings. I also believe they know very well just how much gold is stored in every bullion vault from coast to coast. The places insure your goods and they wouldn't be doing that unless they knew exactly what you have stored in them. Of course when your only talking about pure bullion vaults and nothing else, they are not stored in individual storage safes as in the spy movies. It's stored out in the open with all the other PM. Stored by serial numbers so they know what belongs to who and there are records, detailed records. People talk about government agents swooping down on every bank in America to make sure someone doesn't remove any Gold or Silver from their boxes. That would be such a retarded move, as they have no idea who has what or when they might come looking for any. But those bullion vaults are standing there with no question in doubt as to what's stored inside.

    You don't send an army of people chasing after peanuts hidden in a haystack, when you can go after solid piles of Gold and Silver. Once you quickly confiscate the bulk of the available Gold and Silver, then you can go after the rest in society that is buried in sock drawers, backyard hidden treasure chests and bank safe deposit boxes.

    For the same reason that you've stated that Silver might not be confiscated is exactly why it's no realistic to try and re-introduce it as money again. It' in short supply and to vital for the good of mankind. To actually use it as money again would create an instant shortage for everyone and shortly afterwards the industrial users. Keep in mind the analyst have been predicting a physical shortage of Silver forever, so if they are even close, it's not possible to use as a currency by anyone other than some small country.

    As far as confiscating Gold and Silver from the people, they really don't have to. Just issue a law making it illegal to own, sell or have in your possess and making it a felony after a certain date. "Until that date arrives, everyone has until a certain date to cash in their Gold and Silver at your local bank. We are in the possession of hundreds of millions of bullion transactions that have been provided to us by local coin shops and online dealer for many years. We also have copies of all bank wires sent to bullion dealers covering the past 20 years. If we do not have a full accounting of all your records that are in our possession by the end date, you will receive a letter from the IRS, seeking a full explanation as to what happened to that unaccounted for metal." Fictitious Mumbo Jumbo, who knows, but I believe it would be enough to scare the hell out of most people into complying. I know what can be traced back to me through one source or another, so I wouldn't challenge the system over those items.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

  10. #20
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    The government's already come out and said they will be looking to convert retirement funds to government bonds. Potentially, they may recall all the gold like FDR once did. But they said they would go after all the 'low-hanging fruit' - meaning, gold that's easy to locate and access. After that, they will simply offer rewards for turning in people who are holding out. Your $10,000 fine will be someone else's reward payment. Same for silver and guns. So your real enemies will be all those people who have any hint that you own any gold, silver, guns or ammo. They WILL be motivated to rat you out to the authorities.
    "If you don't know where you're going, you might end up some place else."
    - Yogi Berra

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