Amazing Historical Silver Price Chart

[Kelly]

The Real Price of Silver

I've just discovered one of the most interesting charts on silver I've ever seen. This chart shows the real price of silver (in 1998 dollars) for the last 600 years, from the years 1344 through 1998. The year 1477 is going to blow your mind!

http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html

[silverstash]

Part I
Yes it is interesting. That is no "bull" market in that chart.........But I don't know if using 1998 dollars gives it true value. It would be more interesting to me to see it in 1960's dollars, when a dollar was more of a dollar. The Dow Jones traded under 1,000 and the American paper dollar actually bought something. Something more that I could represent it's modern day value.
I don't know if one could represent modern day paper money to wealth of the 1400's and give it credence. However, let's say you can for arguements sake.
It would put the 1980 spike in metals in perspective for me.
The 1980 spike has never settled with me as a "bull market", and I may be the first one that may have ever said that and may see some tomatoes thrown my way, but when you see it here, there is no arguement, it was a bear market spike.
The 1980 pm's price movement did not behave as a bull market..........but a bear market spike, which is depicted in this chart.
I don't see how you would term it as a bull market just because of price action. Would a true bull market flash to such a level and only violently reverse course, not in my belief.
Have we entered a true bull market now, or more of the same price movement?
What is the importance of the 1980 spike, in a technical relationship?
Is the relationship to a past point in time, as is the probable case in this chart? Or have we entered a new era and real bull market fundamentals are driving the value of PM's?

The stock market definition for a bull is easy to define, especially if you consider true dollar value. A bull market in stocks should represent good times, a solid economy, and stands for the increased value in a companies ability to come to market with goods, to aid them in research and development.....(The short and skinny, but a sound relationship in terms of real value).
Now, the relationship of metals certainly becomes more difficult, as we are not just defining an economy, as many economies have come and gone, but a longer history of many economies. Certainly there always has seemed to be value for metals, but as a pyshological measure of weath more than industrial uses, (which would be limited when you look at this chart, seeing the industrial revolution is young in comparison).
Now, getting back to that chart.........Have we entered a new era, where the PM markets have base lined, came out of that historical bear market, and on it's way to it's true value? Problem I see is no base line for one to say yes, it is possible, but the arguement still remains is a true representation of value? Should we take the top of 1980 and adjust it to inflation and come up with a figure of $3000 plus per ounce for a target now?
Certainly a few fiat base economies have had failures during this 600 year period.... yet that hasn't stopped this trend.
I can believe there was much intelligence to know then, or during many eras then, that people knew there fiat money was going to fail before it actually did, even without the use of all the fancy charts, the internet reporting on the minute where the dollar is traded vs euro, or some other benchmark.
I can believe that many knew then that their ancestors revered metals too, as they should before their fiat money collapsed.
Yes, there is the arguement that in no other time in history has so much metal being used for industrial uses. That it now can't be reclaimed. That it will be the ultimate investor interest that drives the price because of it becoming almost impossible to own.
When you look at a chart like this, if it has credence, then it suggests any upward movement on price is a bear market spike, correcting upwards, as it did in 1980.
This is perhaps a possibility, as should metals be in a new bull market due to fear now? Does there exist a sound fundamental that should drive a bull market now?
If in fact we are in another bear spike, I can't even begin to suggest a top, as we have seen, upward corrections can be steep.
I also wouldnt bet everything I could to know that the price could never retrace once again. And as a precious metals investor, I do think there may be a time when I want to "trade" my metals for something more life sustaining, of greater importance; perhaps get rid of my small amount of debt would be enough! I'll keep this market in perspective and try to improve my position in life with it, as it is an opportunity for now.

[Kelly]

I agree with you. 1998 dollars seems a bit of a joke. In the 60's we still had "silver certificates" that were backed by silver. John F. Kennedy, just weeks before he was assassinated, tried to get completely away from fiat currency, and he even wrote a presidential executive order about it. In the 60's Kennedy tried to return to a silver backed dollar and it thoroughly ticked the big boys off who own the Fed. (It still amazes me how many people don't know that the Federal Reserve Bank is a privately owned bank.)

I posted that chart primarily to show that throughout history, it was silver rather than gold that was valued the most as currency. And there is a reason for that.

Let us get down to the nitty gritty and come right out and say the dollar is tanking and in a couple of years it might take a wheelbarrow full of fiat Federal Reserve paper money to pay for a weeks worth of groceries for your family. It's darned true that by the time that happens, gold might be worth $2500 an ounce (or whatever) but how can you use gold to pay for your groceries? Are you going to pay for your groceries with a one ounce piece of gold bullion in order to pay for $350 (inflation adjusted) dollars worth of groceries two years from now? How will you get your change? And if you were stupid enough to try to pay for $350 worth of groceries with a $2500 ounce of gold, would you have hauled a wheelbarrow with you in order to hold all the paper money you'd get back as change?

Let us say (as a for instance) that when gold is $2500 an ounce, silver has climbed to $250 an ounce at a more reasonable 10 to 1 ratio. In silver, whether it is in coins or beads, there is lots of way to come up with the right amount of money to pay for your groceries. There are 28.35 grams to an ounce of silver. At $250 an ounce, one gram of silver would be worth about $8.81 dollars. If push comes to shove and the economy gets as bad (or worse) than it was during the Big Depression of the 30's you had better have some silver, and you had better have plenty of small denomination coins or 1 gram beads (etc.) or your change for one weeks worth of groceries could be wheelbarrows full of worthless paper money.

It's harder than hell to make the right change with gold. I'm pretty basic in my thinking. I am trying to tell people flat out, get small coins and beads as well as one ounce troy bars and coins of silver. When the you know what hits the fan, you won't be trying to buy food for your family in gold; it will be silver that counts and if you have the brains God gave a goose, then you had damn well better have plenty of small silver change pieces, or you will be hauling home wheelbarrows full of worthless paper money.

I'm pretty simple in my concepts. I just want people to think and to use their common sense because it just could be what saves their lives and the lives of their families.

I think its going to get bad and I want you to be prepared for it. Smaller pieces of silver are still silver. Use your head. It's not all about trying to keep ahead of inflation. In the long run it just could be about keeping your family alive in hard, hard times.

[silverstash]

I admire you for your care to worry about others and try to get the message out there to others.
But that is what I see as the problem in this so called transition of silver will buy you what you want.
Let's face it, most people won't have hoards of silver.......so how do you expect to get to the grocery store safely to bring home your groceries?
Do you think all those who don't have silver will all of the sudden not need groceries either?
Have you heard of anyone manufacturing silver eagle dispensers for gas pumps? You don't see being able to buy groceries with gold........well, if this is going to work, certainly you could imagine the clerk having drawers of change to change whatever?
Please understand, I'm not trying to poke fun at all........but this is the concept I am having a hard time understanding at this point. If there ever will be a transition from paper to silver, it won't be smooth.
I don't think the people holding the silver will necassary go from rags to riches.
I think it is safe to say, as Americans, there are much fewer silver investors per capita, then perhaps anywhere else in the world.........as I don't believe they see a necessity. So when the dollar is worth much less, and if silver would be worth much more........how is it that you could buy groceries? Remember, chances are the grocery store owner himself probably didn't have any stored silver to pay his bills!

[Kelly]

Actually, I think silver will eventually be a so called "black market" commodity. I think the dollar as well as all other fiat currencies (including the Euro) is going to tank in the face of a worldwide currency disaster. When that happens the odds are the average person will be trading in electronic fiat currency (a blip on a central bank) billed to "save you" from economic doom. The average person will carry an RFID electronic identity card or have an implanted RFID chip that will identify you and establish what you do or do not have in your so called banking account. Unfortunately, the same RFID chip will be able to track you wherever you go. Big Brother and all that jazz…

I am a Christian and Christians can't do that. It's against our prophecies and against Christian law. Therefore I see silver as the only possible black market underground currency that will get Christians by.

I am not evangelizing; it's not my thing. I am however pointing out a viable alternative to the "mark of the beast." From my point of view, those who accept the electronic currancy system that will surely be offered will ultimately sell their souls to the fiat bankers. Furthermore, you must understand that when the whole money system goes electronic, you must obey "the man" (big brother) or all it takes is one flick of the mouse or the keypad to take out every thing you thought you had. Basically, it will be a system capable of total economic blackmail of every human being alive; total power in the hands of the money men in other words.

That's economic slavery and I personally do not want to go there.

I think silver will be our only economic alternative currancy.

I don't want to be anybody's slave but you folks have to make up your own minds about that one. As far as I am concerned, when it gets down to one central monetary system that is primarily electronic, and if that is the only currancy offered you, you WILL do what you are told to do whether you like it or not, because if you don't, they will have the power to wipe your electronic currancy account clean. Zippo Da Nadda in your bank account. And that's slavery via economic blackmail. Don't kid yourselves. They'd love to do it and the guys at the top of the dog pile are not elected officials, they are bankers. They don't have to answer to anybody.

When push comes to shove, I'd rather have silver....But then, I believe in Freedom.

[HAG2:8]

Kelly, I don't think Christians will have to rely on silver as a blackmarket currency. We can depend on Him. I have silver coins too but must confess I'm not sure how I will end up using/selling them. Not allowed by law here in Oz to melt our own coins down.
I think I read or heard that Motorola and Mastercard(?) have already produced large numbers of those microchips already.

[prahudka]

Kelly, I don't think Christians will have to rely on silver as a blackmarket currency. We can depend on Him. I have silver coins too but must confess I'm not sure how I will end up using/selling them. Not allowed by law here in Oz to melt our own coins down.
I think I read or heard that Motorola and Mastercard(?) have already produced large numbers of those microchips already.

Psa 12:6 The words of the LORD [are] pure words: [as] silver tried in a furnace of earth, purified seven times.

I hear you.

I am not smart enough for prosperity. I certainly need help in bad times.

I should have gone under many times, but it was the Lord who saved me financially.

Don't mean to offend the nonChristians. To me, this is the greatest PM tip there is.