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Commitments of Traders - Six Weeks signal
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Thread: Commitments of Traders - Six Weeks signal

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    Chicago
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    Default Commitments of Traders - Six Weeks signal

    It took me a bunch of phone calls to clear this up, but it was something stuck in my head and I remembered first hearing about this in 1984. Six weeks of net change in the commercial metals position in the futures market is considered a historical key signal in the markets.

    Last Friday was week five of the drop in the COT commercial short silver position.

    My thanks for the history confirmation to Gunter Kaiserauer at Beverly Hills Commodities.

    Matthew C. Shelley
    Commodity Broker

    As always: Trading in futures and options is very high risk investing. You can lose all or more of the money you invest. Only risk capital should be used.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Atlanta
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    10,577

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Shelley View Post
    It took me a bunch of phone calls to clear this up, but it was something stuck in my head and I remembered first hearing about this in 1984. Six weeks of net change in the commercial metals position in the futures market is considered a historical key signal in the markets.

    Last Friday was week five of the drop in the COT commercial short silver position.

    My thanks for the history confirmation to Gunter Kaiserauer at Beverly Hills Commodities.

    Matthew C. Shelley
    Commodity Broker

    As always: Trading in futures and options is very high risk investing. You can lose all or more of the money you invest. Only risk capital should be used.
    That's a pretty low blow on your part Matt, to start a thread claiming to have noticed this commercial decrease in short position, what do they call that, oh ya, plagiarism.

    I noticed this trend when there was no reason to even suspect anything was but normal. I spent hours researching back COT reports to see if this was normal or a fluke and I've been reporting on this abnormal trend, which seems to favor us.

    First off the commercial shorts have not been decreasing their position, but have increased it over this time frame, as you pointed that fact out to me. They have on the other hand actually decreased their percentage of the Silver short market share.

    As if I didn't notice this anomaly three weeks ago and have been talking about it ever since. You even mocked me a couple weeks back and now it's something that has potential merit and "you" are reporting this fact.

    As if a little guy outside of your commercial world to spot this anomaly, was a not possible. Even when you said I was wrong since the commercial short had increased their holding one week. As I pointed out that the downward trend was in fact continuing since their percentage of all shorts was still in the downward trend. I've never said this was "it", but I have said it was truly unusually for the commercial shorts to decrease their position in a rising spot market, which runs opposite to their normal trend.

    As far as the commercial shorts position declining for six weeks in a row, that is not unusual, but only in a declining silver price. Take the last half of 2008 and you'll see the commercial shorts had a very low percentage of all short contracts for nearly six months running. That was to be expected as they were kicking ass and taking names back then. As far as this being something of significance, I still don't know if it is or if the shorts have another trick up their sleeves and they are about ready to unleash a take down of all take downs. On the other hand, it is the most promising trend I have ever seen on COT reports in the two and one half years I've been following it.
    I'm a proud member of Eggshellman's Liar, Shill, and bully club and a new member of the Super Jew Defense League!!!

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