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Call me and Idiot or a GURU...
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Thread: Call me and Idiot or a GURU...

  1. #1
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    Default Call me an Idiot or a GURU...

    Call me and Idiot or a GURU it matters very little to me.

    I have found the best way to look at the market, to somewhat accurately predict the short-mid term prices, is for one to get training in Human Behavioral Reactions on a Macro scale. Understanding what Humans do in general when they freak out, or get too greedy, or are allowed to rob others unchecked, has been working pretty well for me.

    However,
    I have only been caught off guard once this year, when I did not understand a technical event that went down. For example, the extent of recent $3 drop in silver caught me off guard. Recently, I should have sold heavily at $18.50.
    and bought in again at 14.60.

    BUT noooo.

    I thought it would only be $1.50 correction coming, (not big enough to counter physical premiums to buy back in) So, I held long, and only profit took by selling a small amount of silver... ( as some of you will recall)
    You see, I underestimated how wide spread and extreme the "rapist naked short selling mentality" of the 4 banksters truly is/was, whenever a PM correction even hints at coming. basically I mis-applied "basic Human kindness" and "normal Human ethics" to bankers.
    Bunch of downward manipulating sharks!

    That's why I also look into the TA... They usually get the timing right.
    but like me in that "$3 correction" the TA guys kept on getting surprised by the extent of the fall because they underestimated the basic human ravenous greed of the ETF Paper pushers.

    Thus, I say to JAKE, don't be so hard on the TA guys because they have their part to play...
    You must look at both the TA (for the timing) and common human greed/panic reaction (for the extent of the climb or fall) when trying to "guess" the market's moves with any accuracy.

    Basically, when watching a world event going down:
    Ask yourself what would I do if I was fabulously wealthy, addicted to day trading, and owned interests in this or that county or this or that failing market. ("where would I run and how would that effect Silver")
    At the same time you also ask yourself if I was ten million common (yes, "ingnorant") blue collar workers, what events would freak me out enough to get me to invest my limitted extra saving into PM's or back into the market instead of buying beer. ("where would I spend my savings and how would that effect Silver") ei: think of the average chinese guy who just got the chance to buy gold, for the first time last year...and multiply that effect time a billion.
    Finally, Apply the basic truth, that "If it is not "REAL" it cannot make money for long without a scam being attached to it", and "ALL SCAMS WILL FAIL eventually". ("How hard will it fall and how would that effect Silver")

    Call me and Idiot or a GURU
    but, That's how I do it...

    And so far, it has worked pretty good...
    Last edited by Steadfast; 19th February 2010 at 12:15.
    - God's Walky Talky

    "L A N . . A S T A S L E M"
    I will NOT submit to islam!

    "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing"
    Edmund Burke 1729-1797

  2. #2
    Jake is offline Silver Seeker Senior Member Site Admin
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    Last edited by Jake; 11th March 2010 at 12:04.

  3. #3
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    Jake,
    I must respectfully disagree with you "blanket assesment" of Human Group Behavior being invalid as a means to understanding the market...

    Here is yet another example of why I am right about this...

    Just yesterday a dramatically bearish economic event happened which should have cause silver to plummet, and yet the market went sideways instead.

    That’s why I say In these bazaar times “Sideways is the same as UP”!

    You see, yesterday around 4:30pm, the fed raised their rates .5%... A huge bearish event!
    This should have sent silver and gold into a week long tail spin… NOPE!
    And I even said a s much late yesterday to a co-worker.

    The Silver prices crashed for about 30 minutes, dropped 60 cents and hit the very solid NEW silver price floor of $15.60 and like a ball bouncing and rolling out, the price stopped falling and went sideways the remaining around $15.60… The Chinese woke up that morning and said “HAY, those idiot Americans dropped the price for us again! What a deal” and BOING silver shot back up to $16.10 so far today.

    Thus, understanding Human Group Behavior, can help us understand the “whys” and even accurately guess the extent of the silver market’s moves.

    Here is another example of Human Group (Greed based) Behavior helping us to understand the extent of the silver market’s moves.

    I believe that the big ETF 4 bankster’s are desperate to manipulate down PM’s. (All of their “whys” I am not fully sure of, but I have my theories) The main point is that before China opened up PM’s to a Billion new investors, the “big 4” could easily do this by dumping paper on the market on a weekly basis. However if one looks at the running charts (kitco 24 hour spot chart) you can see that these manipulations are beginning to happen on a daily basis, with little effect, but to turn things sideways.

    And in the process they are consistently Giving our physical gold and silver away at discount rates to our neighbor’s and yes, our enemies in the far east. Why because the folks in the East are not stupid enough to buy PM ETFs… No, unlike us, they buy only physical…

    Thus, we are watching a daily raid in a one sided protracted financial war, waged openly upon the West by our enemies to the East. In ancient days raiders would cross the boarder and rip of sheep and cattle. Today these raiders are not after our worthless dollars but (like sheep & cows) today’s raiders are after something REAL, our true sovereign wealth, our Gold & Silver. YUP, we are experiencing daily financial raids come across our economic boarders, and as a nation “we” are not fighting it, but rather enabling it to happen. The big 4 say to China, "Here ya go! Yes we will be happy to drop that price for you, just as long as I personally don't loose my shirt keeping up my local scam..."

    Here in the west and the USA, the big 4 banks are loosing every ounce of long term real Gold and Silver, just to maintain short control over their “paper profits” which have been sold to Western investors on the scam that all their EFTs are back by physical PMs... The big 4 are now utterly trapped in their own manipulative cycle of death! Why? Because now the price of PMs goes up faster then before, because there are 1 billion new Chinese investors buying only physical and there are more and more Westerners waking up and making calls to cash in their ETF’s for physical as well.

    You see, Physical Metal which the big 4 bankers do NOT own must be acquired. Because, the the only way for them to maintain control over their naked paper sales and to cover their rear ends long enough to retire (not behind bars) is to get their hands on enough dwindling physical metal to meet their ever increasing physical Call demands on their fraudulent ETF paper. The only way to do this is to artificially hold down the physical PM price, by selling/dumping even MORE naked paper metals into the market! A classic Rip off Peter to pay Paul scenerio! Pretty stupid, huh? And as we can see the frequency of their manipulations are on the increase at an alarming rate!

    Once again, when historically super bearish events only make silver bounce, and go sideways, “Sideways is the same as UP”!

    So, if there is a bubble in the gold and silver market, it is a “Short Bubble” in the SLV and GLD ETF market… and soon it will pop! People will wake up to suddenly discover their paper silver and gold is only of good use in their bathrooms!
    CRASH! Will go Gold and Silver!
    FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS…. while all that ETF paper is being FLUSHED...

    And then, for all those who hold physical, “KAAAABOOOM! off we go to the Moon and beyond.”

    That’s why I say… at this time of ever more frequent manipulation…
    “Sideways is the same as UP”!

    Soooo, am I an idiot or a GURU,
    for my beliefe in understanding Human Group Behavior and how it can predict the market...?
    Last edited by Steadfast; 19th February 2010 at 11:39.
    - God's Walky Talky

    "L A N . . A S T A S L E M"
    I will NOT submit to islam!

    "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing"
    Edmund Burke 1729-1797

  4. #4
    Jake is offline Silver Seeker Senior Member Site Admin
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    Last edited by Jake; 11th March 2010 at 12:04.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jake View Post
    Well, if you truly believe that you can trade the market based on anything including TA and/or News or Astrology, over the long term profitably, then post your trades and maybe we all can watch the fun!
    No problem....

    I do just that when I am about to pull the trigger...

    The only thing is I am a "long term guy" so I pull the trigger to sell maybe once a year and only after I consult the good people here at this forum.

    I hold long and trade short only when I can virtually gaurintee at least a $4.00 drop in prices.

    And, because I am an "all in or all out" kind of guy as well,
    When I do sell I sell EVERYTHING, and then buy back in with EVERTHING.
    simply because I believe that if things are good enough to trade short why trade short only a little bit.

    The only other time I sell is when the deal is so sweet in my direction that only a crazy man would pass it up.
    for example: some of my ancient coin buying deals.

    BTW: I do not believe in astrology...

    Another BTW: When silver was at $18.60
    I believe it was Master Q who sold off 1000 oz of silver, useing TA, just before the correction hit.
    hey...I just sayin...
    Last edited by Steadfast; 19th February 2010 at 14:44.
    - God's Walky Talky

    "L A N . . A S T A S L E M"
    I will NOT submit to islam!

    "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing"
    Edmund Burke 1729-1797

  6. #6
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    Default

    "the TA guys kept on getting surprised by the extent of the fall because they underestimated the basic human ravenous greed of the ETF Paper pushers."

    They also keep forgetting that the Wall Street banksters know technical analysis just as well as they do. As I've said before, the basic problem with TA is that it assumes an honest market and no observer effect.
    Things I learned growing up on a cattle ranch: Don't try to climb over the manure pile. Go around it.
    Things I learned in the big city: Don't try to beat the banksters at their own game. Go around them and own physical bullion.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaleFromCalgary View Post
    "the TA guys kept on getting surprised by the extent of the fall because they underestimated the basic human ravenous greed of the ETF Paper pushers."

    They also keep forgetting that the Wall Street banksters know technical analysis just as well as they do. As I've said before, the basic problem with TA is that it assumes an honest market and no observer effect.
    That's true too...
    - God's Walky Talky

    "L A N . . A S T A S L E M"
    I will NOT submit to islam!

    "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing"
    Edmund Burke 1729-1797

  8. #8
    Jake is offline Silver Seeker Senior Member Site Admin
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    Last edited by Jake; 11th March 2010 at 12:04.

  9. #9
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    Well, if you truly believe that you can trade the market based on anything including TA and/or News or Astrology, over the long term profitably, then post your trades and maybe we all can watch the fun![/QUOTE]

    If you define trading as placing massive bets long or short trying to call every top or bottom using strict TA, then no, you can't be profitable over the long term.

    However, if you are not afraid to go outside the physical market and use an ETF,Pool Account or Forex broker that offers silver you can, with a sensible trading plan, make handsome returns on an annual basis.

    If there is any interest I will outline my plan and post my trades in real time to prove that it can be done.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by charlie_dont_surf View Post
    If there is any interest I will outline my plan and post my trades in real time to prove that it can be done.
    Or you could just compete in the March 2010 SLV ETF stock trading contest and show your stuff.
    "I foresee little future in 'the price of silver', I see a huge future for 'the price in silver'." - heartbone
    "The truth is called hate by those who hate the truth." - K

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