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Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com - SilverSeek.com Articles http://forums.silverseek.com/ Public comments on articles published on SilverSeek.com en Wed, 20 Feb 2019 06:53:45 GMT vBulletin 60 http://forums.silverseek.com/images/misc/rss.png Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com - SilverSeek.com Articles http://forums.silverseek.com/ <![CDATA[It's Blue Skies For The Stock Market As Far As The Eye Can See]]> http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69416-It-s-Blue-Skies-For-The-Stock-Market-As-Far-As-The-Eye-Can-See&goto=newpost Wed, 20 Feb 2019 04:58:53 GMT *We have all heard it. Many times through history, the hubris of analysts, economists, and market participants has been on display when markets rally... We have all heard it. Many times through history, the hubris of analysts, economists, and market participants has been on display when markets rally extremely strongly. In fact, such hubris often accompanies major market tops. And, history has taught us that most of them are quite severely near sighted.
Allow me to show you some examples.

"We will not have any more crashes in our time."

This was said John Maynard Keynes in 1927, two years before the stock market crash which lead to the Great Depression.
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as they have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

This was said on October 17, 1929, a few weeks before the Great Crash, by Dr. Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University. Dr. Fisher was one of the leading US economists of his time.
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."

- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

And, these are just a few of the popular quotes of their day. And, by the way, has anyone heard of the Pierce Arrow Motor Car Company? You have not? Well, that is because they went bankrupt during the Great Depression. But, I digress.

And, let’s not forget Alan Greenspan, who just before the housing bubble burst, was quoted as saying:
". . . a 'bubble' in home prices for the nation as a whole does not appear likely . . . Although we certainly cannot rule out home price declines, especially in some local markets, these declines, were they to occur, likely would not have substantial macroeconomic implications."

This is the same Alan Greenspan who later provided this explanation as to why the 2008-09 financial crisis was “unforeseeable:”
"Regulators who are required to forecast have had a woeful record of chronic failure. History tells us they cannot identify the timing of a crisis, or anticipate exactly where it will be located or how large the losses and spillovers will be."

Yet, history proves that most still exhibit extraordinary hubris just as we are striking major market tops despite the admissions that they are unable to foresee such events.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550606029.php
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Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69415-Stacking-The-Next-QE-On-Top-Of-A-4-Trillion-Fed-Floor&goto=newpost Wed, 20 Feb 2019 04:54:24 GMT *The Federal Reserve is currently communicating to the markets that it will likely pivot, and pause two strategies. The first pivot is to stop... The Federal Reserve is currently communicating to the markets that it will likely pivot, and pause two strategies. The first pivot is to stop increasing interest rates. The second pivot is to stop unwinding the Fed balance sheet.

While the interest rate pause is getting the most attention - the balance sheet pause could be the most important one for investors over the coming years.

As explored herein, the impact of pausing the unwinding the balance sheet is to create a new floor at about $4 trillion in Federal Reserve assets. And if the business cycle has not been repealed and there is another recession - the Fed fully intends to go back to quantitative easing, potentially creating more trillions of dollars to be used for market interventions, and to stack another round of balance sheet expansion right on top of the previous round.





http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550603593.php ]]>
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The Bears Have it Right: Economy went Polar Opposite of Bullish Predictions http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69414-The-Bears-Have-it-Right-Economy-went-Polar-Opposite-of-Bullish-Predictions&goto=newpost Wed, 20 Feb 2019 04:51:03 GMT *Bears, like myself, picked the meat off market bulls throughout 2018. We scoffed at the start of the year when bulls concocted a narrative that said...
Bears, like myself, picked the meat off market bulls throughout 2018. We scoffed at the start of the year when bulls concocted a narrative that said bears would starve because 2018 was going to be the year of “global synchronize growth.” We bears bawled that this was euphoric nonsense.Global economies fell off a cliff as soon as the bulls’ narrative took hold, and all economies continued to falter for the entire year. The US was the only major economy to get a significant boost, due to absolutely massive tax cuts, which piddled away after two quarters (fourth quarter now estimated at 1.5%).
The more polar opposite from bulls the bears went, the more right they were

I’m going to make my first prediction for 2019; but, first, I’ll offer the following points as proof the bears were completely right for 2018:
  • Global cooling of all economies continued all the way into 2019, with IMF and central banks writing down their future estimates. It turned out to be the year of globally synchronized slowing. This happened largely due to the unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet, and in spite of massive US tax cuts.



  • The Retail Apocalypse grew worse throughout 2018 just as bears said would be the case for the full year. Retail sales, originally reported by wishfully bulls who hoped December would finally make them right, turned out to have tanked miserably. Just like “globally synchronized growth,” holiday sales flopped on their head.



  • The bears boldly claimed 2018 would be the year of Carmageddon. US auto sales fell so badly that 2018 became the absolutely historic year in which multiple lines of US cars were discontinued for good, and several US auto factories were permanently closed. The country that brought mass manufacturing of cars to the world practically went out of the car business, though SUVs, vans and trucks continue.



  • The US housing market worsened one gradient at a time every single month after the first quarter of the year. Canadian, UK, and Australian housing markets have done about the same.



  • Bears said (cynically to the bovine mind) nearly 100% of tax money repatriated to the US along with money from massive corporate tax breaks would go into stock buybacks, and your most polar of bears right here said, vast as those buybacks would be, they still would not save either the US economy or the US stock market from becoming a train wreck in 2018. Neither would money fleeing out of other economies into the US. Testosterone-hot Bulls thought that was ludicrous because the tax cuts were enormous. However, the Fed’s unwind was just as enormous, so Ursa Major rose in ascendancy throughout the year, and Taurus fell into an icy winter. Emerging market stocks and developed markets all fell. Even the US stock market fell to pieces right at the start of the year and looked like a mess all year.



  • Nevertheless, a deafening chorus of bulls maintained through the year that the US stock market would end the year higher … even after the October surprise (for bulls, not bears) had begun. Bears, on the other hand, held their line and predicted US stocks would end lower than at the start of the year. Bears proved resoundingly correct as the dumbfounded bulls fell silent in the nights of December.



  • Bears, including yours truly, had claimed throughout the decade-long recovery that the Fed would never be able to unwind its balance sheet or return to normal interest rates without crashing its “fake” recovery. Yours truly even said 2018 would be the year this claim proved true. Stepping up to that proof, Jerome Powell volunteered himself for a face-plant in late December, which he reinforced again this January. Having valiantly promised in September that Fed rate increases would continue apace and balance-sheet reduction would continue on autopilot, Powell reversed himself less than three months after his balance-sheet reduction hit full speed. China also moved back to massive easing, and the ECB just indicated it may return to more easing, having only just stopped easing at the end of 2018. The Bank of Japan has simply said it will continue with its quantitative easing program. Central banks appear to be scrambling to stop the wreckage their tightening has already caused.



  • The dialogue about synchronized growth is ancient history, replaced predominantly at the end of 2018 by talk about the possibilities of global recession starting in 2019, which is where I’ve said for two years a bad 2018 will take us, and of late by talk of a “Goldilocks” economy that is just bad enough to re-engage the Fed in economic stimulus but not so bad as to kill the market. Good luck with the replacement narrative. It won’t hold any better than “globally synchronous growth” did last year.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550578308.php
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The Coming Restoration of Silver http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69413-The-Coming-Restoration-of-Silver&goto=newpost Wed, 20 Feb 2019 04:46:41 GMT *The way I see it, silver has basically two major categories of use. The first and most important use is as a monetary asset. It is only when used as... The way I see it, silver has basically two major categories of use. The first and most important use is as a monetary asset. It is only when used as a monetary asset that it could realize its true (or fair) value.Currently, it is probably as far away (not time wise though) from being used as a monetary asset, as it has ever been. It is for this reason that silver is so under valued and such a must-buy.

The second is really all other uses that is strictly non-monetary. This is how it is currently (materially) being used. Under this scenario it is just another asset that rises in price when excessive credit (including money printing) is created.
You could loosely say that it acts like a commodity when used as non-monetary asset, and of course that it is money when used as a monetary asset.

Now, silver will not just be willingly restored to being a monetary asset, and the masses won’t just go and buy all the silver they can get just for the fun of it.

Instead, what is likely to happen is a collapse of the current debt-based monetary order will bring people back to using silver as money (out of need for financial survival), as well as, stack silver like they stack stocks, bonds and other major investment classes, in order to protect against the fallout from the crisis.

Interest rates play a critical part in identifying when the time for silver being restored to a monetary asset could come (explained here); and over the last couple of years, the bottoming of long-term interest rates has signaled that the time is soon.

http://silverseek.com/commentary/com...n-silver-17582
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COT Silver Report - February 19, 2019 for January 29th http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69412-COT-Silver-Report-February-19-2019-for-January-29th&goto=newpost Wed, 20 Feb 2019 04:44:29 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-february-19-2019-17583 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to... http://<a href="http://silverseek.co...2019-17583</a>

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1550609108.php
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<![CDATA[Gold Market Update: Like Pavlov's Dog..]]> http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69411-Gold-Market-Update-Like-Pavlov-s-Dog&goto=newpost Tue, 19 Feb 2019 04:49:29 GMT *Gold has been turned back so many times in recent years from the strong resistance approaching the $1400 level, that most investors have now been... Gold has been turned back so many times in recent years from the strong resistance approaching the $1400 level, that most investors have now been well trained, like Pavlov’s dog, to expect it like clockwork, and as we know, it is just when this mindset prevails that gold is likely to surprise the majority by actually breaking out above this level.

Looking at our latest 10-year chart for gold it’s not hard to see why most investors are defeatist about gold’s chances of breaking out. After all it has made 5 more serious attempts to break above this level since mid-2013 and all have failed. Even if they see what we see on this chart, which is gold approaching completion of a giant complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom, they are still skeptical. They will mutter something about “The Cartel” and their power to clobber gold at will by manufacturing an infinite supply of paper shorts, which they then dump on the market when most of us are asleep – isn’t it supposed to be 300 to 1 leverage now, or is it 3000 to 1? – I’ve lost track. Their dastardly objective, we are told, is to maintain confidence in the fiat money system for as long as possible, because they can point to gold’s feeble performance and say “Look, if it’s so bad, why isn’t gold going through the roof?” This negative outlook towards gold is of course promoted by the MSM (mainstream media), one of whose Prime Directives is to keep the average investor on the wrong side of the trade.

http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1550513532.php
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Modern Monetary Madness http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69410-Modern-Monetary-Madness&goto=newpost Tue, 19 Feb 2019 04:30:49 GMT *Modern Monetary Madness •Pet Economists •Can This Really Be a Thing? •Sound Bite Economics •Do Deficits Matter? •Strategic Investment and Life... Modern Monetary Madness
•Pet Economists
•Can This Really Be a Thing?
•Sound Bite Economics
•Do Deficits Matter?
•Strategic Investment and Life Planning
•Dallas, Houston, Cleveland a lot, New York, back to Puerto Rico, Austin, and Dallas



Modern Monetary Madness

Essentially, MMT espouses that the public through the government owns the process of money creation, and that in addition to borrowing and taxing, should simply issue currency as payment for its obligations. This is not the sleight-of-hand that quantitative easing was. This is direct monetization in lieu of borrowing.

If that sounds like printing money, that’s because it is. Upfront and in-your-face as a serious economic proposal. Most of the time when I am talking with my fellow writers and economists, when somebody mentions MMT, everybody smiles, maybe chuckles, and shakes their heads. The problem is, what seems like a joke is actually getting traction.

Let’s get the official definition of MMT from Wikipedia. My comments inserted are in brackets.

In MMT, "vertical" money (money created by the government and spent in the private sector) enters circulation through government spending. Taxation and its legal tender enable power to discharge debt and establish the fiat money as currency, giving it value by creating demand for it in the form of a private tax obligation that must be met. [And thus higher taxes create more demand for the currency and help to maintain the value thereof.]

In addition, fines, fees and licenses create demand for the currency. An ongoing tax obligation, in concert with private confidence and acceptance of the currency, maintains its value. Because the government can issue its own currency at will, MMT maintains that the level of taxation relative to government spending (the government's deficit spending or budget surplus) is in reality a policy tool that regulates inflation and unemployment, and not a means of funding the government's activities by itself. [The more you want the government to spend, the higher the taxes have to be in order to keep from creating inflation, or so the theory goes.]

Proponents argue that unemployment is caused by lack of demand and lack of demand is caused by insufficient money entering the private sector, a problem the government can solve by creating money and spending it in the private sector. Voilà, demand is created and unemployment goes down. Inflation? That can be controlled by higher taxes. Hey, it’s their theory. Don’t ask me to explain it.

Economists advising major presidential and congressional candidates on the progressive and even “moderate” left are more and more openly talking about MMT and its practical applications.

Pet Economists

I have said before that economists are the modern-day equivalent of shamans and priests. Rather than looking at sheep entrails, economists look at “data” and tell the politician (king, emperor, or chief…) what they want to hear. I have been in more than one meeting where a politician is clearly shopping for a rationale for something that they would like to propose and do. Any serious politician is going to have more than a few economic advisors attached in one form or another to their campaign.

Let me quickly state that I am not disparaging the role of economists when they act as political advisors. I have done that myself. It is actually one of the rationales for the discipline. Indeed, it would be strange if that were not the case.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550504772.php ]]>
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Silver Market Update: Double Bottom on the 10-year chart.. http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69409-Silver-Market-Update-Double-Bottom-on-the-10-year-chart&goto=newpost Tue, 19 Feb 2019 04:24:09 GMT *The charts for silver look nowhere near as strong as those for gold, but that is normal for this stage in the cycle, as at the start of major sector... The charts for silver look nowhere near as strong as those for gold, but that is normal for this stage in the cycle, as at the start of major sector bullmarkets investors tend to be cautious and conservative and favor gold over silver. Before going any further note that many of the observations made in the parallel Gold Market update, particularly regarding the dollar and Precious Metals stocks, apply equally to silver so there is no need to repeat them here, which is why the Silver Market update tends to be a lot shorter than the Gold Market update.

Starting with the 10-year chart we see that the giant base pattern in silver appears to be taking the form of a Double Bottom, instead of the complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom that we saw in gold. Silver certainly looks weaker than gold here and is still quite a long way from breaking out of its base pattern, and it will take a break above $22 to finally break clear out of it.




The shorter-term 6-month chart looks more similar to that for gold with the same kind of parabolic slingshot move building. Within this curved uptrend it has tracked sideways since early January, which has allowed its earlier overbought condition to almost fully unwind and the rising 50-day moving average and parabolic uptrend to come into play, setting silver up for another upleg imminently, which is made more likely by the dollar looking set to drop soon, as we saw in the Gold Market update. We have just seen a bullish cross of the moving averages, which helps.

http://silverseek.com/commentary/sil...ar-chart-17581
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Retail Apocalypse and Carmageddon Continue to Pick up Speed as Predicted Here http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69408-Retail-Apocalypse-and-Carmageddon-Continue-to-Pick-up-Speed-as-Predicted-Here&goto=newpost Sat, 16 Feb 2019 03:30:38 GMT *We now know that the Retail Apocalypse took another trip downhill during the all-important holiday season. December reports show retail sales... We now know that the Retail Apocalypse took another trip downhill during the all-important holiday season. December reports show retail sales declined more in one month than they have since … the Great Recession. Notice what a common refrain that comparison has become.
Retail Apocalypse snowballs downhill

Retail sales dropped 1.2% month-over-month in December, the largest drop since September 2009, according to data from the Census Bureau released Thursday. The dip was broadly unexpected – consensus estimates had foreseen a 0.1% increase in retail sales for the month, according to Bloomberg data. Excluding autos and gas, which can be volatile, core retail sales plunged 1.8%. “[The] fall in retail sales in December was every bit as bad as it looks,” Capital Economics’ Michael Pearce said bluntly. The weakness was broad-based.
Yahoo!
The plunge in data was so severe and unexpected by many that some question the Census Bureau’s credibility; but other big financial institutions are revising their outlooks substantially based on the data:
“On the back of this morning’s data… our 4Q real GDP tracking estimate likewise took a big hit, down to 3.1% from 3.7%,” Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner wrote. “The report also has negative implications for consumption growth in the first quarter… Based on this morning’s results, we estimate that 1Q GDP tracking could come in as low as 1%.”
The data does fit with ongoing bankruptcies of brick-and-mortar stores:
The decline of brick-and-mortar stores isn’t expected to slow down, according to a new report. Coresight Research released an outlook of 2019 store closures Wednesday, saying there’s “no light at the end of the tunnel….” Six weeks into 2019, U.S. retailers have announced 2,187 closings, up 23 percent compared to last year. Those closings include 749 Gymboree stores, 251 Shopko stores and 94 Charlotte Russe locations…. Bankruptcies also are continuing at a rapid pace “with the number of filings in the first six weeks of 2019 already at one-third of last year’s total,” the report states…. There’s “potentially many more (closings) on the way due to companies currently in the bankruptcy process and more on the horizon,” the report states.
USA Today
Carmageddon rolls downhill quickly, too

With that, let’s catch up on where the demise of the auto industry has gone since I said all of last year and the year before that it would continue to build momentum in 2018, due in large part to the Federal Reserve’s Great Recovery Rewind. Here is a quick play-by-play log like I gave for the housing market crash just to show how consistent this multi-car pile-up has been:
July, 2018: GM, Ford and Chrysler stocks all take major hits. MarketWatch reported Wolf Richter as noting that we hadn’t seen this kind of triple-punch since … the financial crisis of the Great Recession. Only this time, he noted, Carmageddon was happening during “good times.”
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550261654.php ]]>
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COT Silver Report - February 15, 2019 for January 22nd http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69407-COT-Silver-Report-February-15-2019-for-January-22nd&goto=newpost Sat, 16 Feb 2019 03:11:00 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-february-15-2019-17580 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to... http://<a href="http://silverseek.co...2019-17580</a>

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1550263397.php
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A Financial System Headed For A Collision With Debt http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69406-A-Financial-System-Headed-For-A-Collision-With-Debt&goto=newpost Fri, 15 Feb 2019 02:03:38 GMT *The retail sales report for December – delayed because of the Government shut-down – was released this morning. It showed the largest monthly drop... The retail sales report for December – delayed because of the Government shut-down – was released this morning. It showed the largest monthly drop since September 2009. Online sales plunged 3.9%, the steepest drop since November 2008. Not surprisingly, sporting goods/hobby/musical instruments/books plunged 4.9%. This is evidence that the average household has been forced to cut back discretionary spending to pay for food, shelter and debt service (mortgage, auto, credit card, student loans).

I had to laugh when Trump’s Cocaine Cowboy – masquerading as the Administration’s flagship “economist” – attributed the plunge in retail sales to a “glitch.” Yes, the “glitch” is that 7 million people are delinquent to seriously delinquent on their auto loan payments. I’d have to hazard a wild guess that these folks aren’t are not spending money on the latest i-Phone or a pair of high-end yoga pants.

The chart above shows personal interest payments excluding mortgage debt. As you can see, the current non-mortgage personal interest burden is nearly 20% higher than it was just before the 2008 financial crisis. It’s roughly 75% higher than it was at the turn of the century. The middle class spending capacity is predicated on disposable income, savings, and borrowing capacity. Disposable income is shrinking, the savings rate is near an all-time low and many households are running out of capacity to support more household debt.

I found another “glitch” in the private sector sourced data, which is infinitely more reliable than the manipulated, propaganda-laced garbage spit out by Government agencies. The Conference Board’s measurement of consumer confidence plunged to 120.2 from 126.6 in January (December’s number was revised lower). Both the current and future expectations sub-indices plunged. Bond guru, Jeff Gundlach, commented that consumer future expectations relative to current conditions is a recessionary signal and this was one of the worst readings ever in that ratio.

This was the third straight month the index has declined after hitting 137.9 (an 18-yr high) in October. The 17.7 cumulative (12.8%) decline is the worst string of losses since October 2011 (back then the Fed was just finishing QE2 and prepping for QE3). The expectation for jobs was the largest contributor to the plunge in consumer confidence. Just 14.7% of the respondents are expecting more jobs in the next 6 months vs 22.7% in November. The 2-month drop in the Conference Board’s index was the steepest 2-month drop since 1968.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550178051.php
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The 7 Major Flaws of the Global Financial System http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69405-The-7-Major-Flaws-of-the-Global-Financial-System&goto=newpost Fri, 15 Feb 2019 01:59:09 GMT All in graphics that I can't display

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550156271.php
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We are the Lemmings http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69404-We-are-the-Lemmings&goto=newpost Fri, 15 Feb 2019 01:55:00 GMT *What were you doing on August 1, 2018? Likely it was just like any other day, with your thoughts on work, your spouse, your kids, money, what to... What were you doing on August 1, 2018? Likely it was just like any other day, with your thoughts on work, your spouse, your kids, money, what to make for dinner, etc. What you should have been thinking about though, was the Earth.

August 1 was Earth Overshoot Day. What does that mean? Well, Earth Overshoot Day is the day of the year when humanity has used more resources from nature than can renew in that entire year. The date is moving closer to January, meaning every year we use up more natural resources, faster.

That’s a problem, because without a way to replace all the resources we consume - harvested food, fertilizers, energy, metals, etc. - we are gradually depleting nature’s bounty, at a rate that is unsustainable, long-term. If we keep going, and economies keep growing, we’re eventually going to run out. The problem is made worse by the global population increasing, along with the continuing wants of people in the developed world (“the West”) and in less-developed countries (who are demanding houses, cars, fridges, cell phones, etc.), putting more pressure on our finite resources.

This article will take a look at how unsustainable our voracious consumption has become, and how we might live more sustainably in order to #MoveTheDate, in Twitterspeak, back not forward.

Earth Overshoot Day

The day of the year humanity’s consumption becomes unsustainable, started being marked in 2006. The project of compiling this data is performed by the Global Footprint Network (GFN), an international research organization.

Since then, the date has been marching forward every year. In other words, every year our consumption becomes less sustainable. To put this in terms everyone can understand, Earth Overshoot Day 2018 meant that Earth’s population used a year’s worth of resources in seven months. August 2 was the point when we consumed all the meat, fish, grains, energy, etc. (whatever can be made naturally) that nature can regenerate over a year, through over-farming, over-fishing, over-extracting, over-heating or cooling, and over-polluting.

Put another way, in 2018 it would take 1.7 Earths to feed, clothe and sustain the planet’s 7.6 billion people for a year. After August 1, the rest of the year was “overshoot”.

When the first overshoot calculation was announced in 2006, that date was Oct. 9, now it’s the beginning of August.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550156111.php
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Gold Love Trade Could Set New Valentine’s Spending Record http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69403-Gold-Love-Trade-Could-Set-New-Valentine’s-Spending-Record&goto=newpost Fri, 15 Feb 2019 01:38:38 GMT *This Valentine’s Day might best be remembered for two things in particular. One, for the first time in 153 years, candy lovers won’t be able to pick... This Valentine’s Day might best be remembered for two things in particular. One, for the first time in 153 years, candy lovers won’t be able to pick up a box of Sweethearts, those classic heart-shaped candies bearing sweet nothings like “BE MINE” and “CRAZY 4 U.” And two, consumers are set to spend more than $20 billion on Valentine’s gifts for the first time ever, thanks in part to a surge in gold jewelry demand—specifically, yellow gold.

Regarding Sweethearts, they’ll be missing from store shelves this year because the candy’s manufacturer, Necco, sadly went bankrupt last May. But never fear! Its new owner, Spangler Candy Company—maker of Dum Dums lollipops—could bring them back as soon as next year.

As for Valentine’s Day spending, what I find interesting is that it continues to grow even as the number of people who admit to celebrating the holiday has been on the decline for years now, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). It’s estimated that Americans will shell out an all-time high of $20.7 billion this year, easily topping the previous record of $19.7 billion set in 2016.

The increase in spending, I believe, can largely be attributed to the Love Trade, which is all about gold’s timeless role as a treasured gift. Of the $20.7 billion, an estimated 18 percent, or $3.9 billion, will be spent on jewelry alone, much of it featuring gold, silver and other precious metals and minerals.

Just take a look at the results of a recent WalletHub survey. When asked what kind of Valentine’s Day gift was “best,” most women said they preferred jewelry, beating out gift cards, flowers and chocolates. (Interestingly, a third of men said they preferred gift cards, with only 4 percent saying they thought jewelry was the “best” gift.)

http://news.goldseek.com/USFunds/1550087827.php
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The Next Goals for Gold and Silver Prices http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69402-The-Next-Goals-for-Gold-and-Silver-Prices&goto=newpost Fri, 15 Feb 2019 01:36:36 GMT With our initial price goals for 2019 having been achieved, COMEX gold and silver are now in their first pullback phase of the year. How long will it... With our initial price goals for 2019 having been achieved, COMEX gold and silver are now in their first pullback phase of the year. How long will it last and what are the next upside price targets?
If you've been following along every week, then you'll recall that we were quite adamant regarding a year-end 2018 and Q1 2019 price rally for both gold and silver. From the November lows, we projected a rally in COMEX gold to $1310-1330 and a rally in COMEX silver to $16.35. Both peaked on January 31, with COMEX gold hitting $1331 and COMEX silver reaching $16.20. If you'd like a refresher of what was projected, please see these links:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/into-year-end-wit...
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-and-silver-p...
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/expectations-for-...
And now, with our initial price goals met, it should come as no surprise that a small pullback is underway, sparked by a rallying dollar that has almost inexplicably risen every day since the January FOMC concluded two weeks ago.

Before we address Stage Two of what will be a terrific year for precious metals investors and traders, let's first attempt to discern where price support will be found and what levels might present the best risk/reward opportunities.
In COMEX gold, the technical picture remains strong, with a solid uptrend in place backed by the positioning of the moving averages, which will become nearly ideal once the 100-day bullishly crosses the 200-day later this month. These factors will combine to keep a consistent bid for COMEX gold exposure on any price drop, thus blunting any possible nefarious intent on the part of The Banks. As you can see below, the area near $1300 should provide significant support, both technically and psychologically. However, any drop below this level will also find stout support near the rising 50-day moving average, currently found near $1285.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1550077871.php
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