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Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com http://forums.silverseek.com/ Forums for silver investor discussions. en Tue, 16 Jul 2019 00:27:02 GMT vBulletin 60 http://forums.silverseek.com/images/misc/rss.png Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com http://forums.silverseek.com/ COT Silver Report - July 8, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69600-COT-Silver-Report-July-8-2019&goto=newpost Tue, 09 Jul 2019 13:15:41 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-july-8-2019-17684 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see... http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...y-8-2019-17684

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1562614761.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69600-COT-Silver-Report-July-8-2019
COT Silver Report - June 28, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69599-COT-Silver-Report-June-28-2019&goto=newpost Tue, 09 Jul 2019 13:11:20 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-june-28-2019-17680* http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...-28-2019-17680 ]]> SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69599-COT-Silver-Report-June-28-2019 New Home Sales Tank – KBH Claims Its Numbers “Improved” http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69598-New-Home-Sales-Tank-–-KBH-Claims-Its-Numbers-“Improved”&goto=newpost Fri, 28 Jun 2019 07:11:40 GMT *“We are confident we can produce further improvement in our results in the second half of this year” – KB Homes CEO in reference to its... “We are confident we can produce further improvement in our results in the second half of this year” – KB Homes CEO in reference to its “returns-focused” growth model
“Returns-Focused Growth Model.” Has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? KBH’s revenues dropped 7.3% YoY for Q2. It’s operating income plunged a healthy 28%. How’s that growth strategy working out for you, Jay?

Of course it produced a headline EPS “beat.” But this is because it implemented a full-blown deep-tissue body massage to GAAP accounting, including capitalizing costs that should have been expensed (interest expense and homebuilding expenses), it recognized a non-cash “income” in off-balance sheet JV’s (a suspiciously round $2.5 million) and slashed its arbitrarily determined book tax rate to 17% from 28%.

Except in certain areas where markets remain hot due to migration patterns (hundreds moving to Denver weekly – please stop), the housing market is contracting despite the lowest mortgage rates since late 2017. The Government has all but made it possible for a barely breathing corpse to take down a tax-payer guaranteed mortgage (there’s even several no-down-payment programs).

The homebuilder sentiment index (formally called the “Housing Market Index”) was released on Monday morning. It fell to an index level of 64 in June from 66 in May. Wall St’s finest were looking for a consensus 67. All three sub-indices declined: current sales conditions, buyer traffic and expectations for the next six months. Buyer traffic has been below 50 for two months in a row. This is despite more than a 1% decline in the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage during the last 7 months.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1561650368.php ]]>
SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69598-New-Home-Sales-Tank-–-KBH-Claims-Its-Numbers-“Improved”
Time for an International Gold Reset http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69597-Time-for-an-International-Gold-Reset&goto=newpost Fri, 28 Jun 2019 07:07:59 GMT Every 30 – 40 years the world goes crazy, takes a deep dive into a shallow pond, dances with the devil, and resets gold internationally. In 1913:... Every 30 – 40 years the world goes crazy, takes a deep dive into a shallow pond, dances with the devil, and resets gold internationally.

In 1913:

A corrupt congress created the Federal Reserve and reset gold’s status. Paper currency units (bad money) eventually drove gold (good money) out of the financial system. Add WWI, the IRS, and League of Nations.

In 1944 – 1949:

The Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) established the dollar as the reserve currency, backed by gold. WWII ended and the nuclear age began. The sun set on the British empire.

In 1980 – 85:

“Stagflation” ended, the gold bubble burst, and the debt-fueled bull market in stocks and bonds began. Gold prices reset lower after their bubble peak.

In 2019 – 2025 (speculation):

Gold reset higher (perhaps $10,000 – $20,000) in a multi-year rally because of diminished confidence in “over-printed” paper currencies, QE to infinity, corrupt central banks and insolvent governments.

GOLD – RESET OUT OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM:

In 1913: Gold was real money in the United States. Double eagles ($20.00), Eagles ($10.00), and Half-Eagles ($5.00) circulated. Congress and the bankers created The Federal Reserve to boost banker profits. Gold lost status in the financial reset.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1561556413.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69597-Time-for-an-International-Gold-Reset
Big Tech, Big Banks Push for “Cashless Society” http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69596-Big-Tech-Big-Banks-Push-for-“Cashless-Society”&goto=newpost Fri, 28 Jun 2019 06:56:35 GMT *The War on Cash isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s an open agenda. It’s being driven by an alignment of interests among bankers, central bankers,... The War on Cash isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s an open agenda. It’s being driven by an alignment of interests among bankers, central bankers, politicians, and Silicon Valley moguls who stand to benefit from an all-digital economy.

Last week, Facebook – in partnership with major banks, payment processors, and e-commerce companies – launched a digital currency called Libra. Unlike decentralized, free-floating cryptocurrencies, Libra will be tied to national fiat currencies, integrated into the financial system, and centrally managed.

Critics warn Libra is akin to a “spy coin.” It’s certainly not for anyone who wants to go off the financial grid.

Many of the companies involved in Libra (including Facebook itself) routinely ban users on the basis of their political views. Big Tech has booted scores of individuals and groups off social platforms for engaging in “far right” speech. If Libra one day becomes the predominant online payment method, then political dissidents could effectively be banned from all e-commerce.

You can still obtain some degree of anonymity in the offline world by using paper cash. But that will become impossible in the cashless future envisioned by bankers.

Last week Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan touted new developments in digital payment systems while speaking at a Fortune conference. He said, “We want a cashless society…we have more to gain than anybody from a pure operating costs.”

They gain – at the expense of our financial privacy. A cashless society is the end of a long road to monetary ruin that began many decades ago with the abandonment of sound money backed by gold and silver

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1561549484.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69596-Big-Tech-Big-Banks-Push-for-“Cashless-Society”
China Threatens to Stop Exports of Vital “Rare Earth” Metals to U.S - PODCAST http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69595-China-Threatens-to-Stop-Exports-of-Vital-“Rare-Earth”-Metals-to-U-S-PODCAST&goto=newpost Fri, 28 Jun 2019 06:46:13 GMT https://s3.amazonaws.com/ILB_MS_BUCKET/ILB-190524-WeeklyMarketWrap.mp3 https://s3.amazonaws.com/ILB_MS_BUCK...MarketWrap.mp3 ]]> SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69595-China-Threatens-to-Stop-Exports-of-Vital-“Rare-Earth”-Metals-to-U-S-PODCAST The Fed Is Caught Behind The Curve http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69594-The-Fed-Is-Caught-Behind-The-Curve&goto=newpost Fri, 28 Jun 2019 06:37:47 GMT *I have written many times about how the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. And, we are about to see yet another example of history’s... I have written many times about how the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. And, we are about to see yet another example of history’s lessons.

For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its multi-year highs within a week of our call. Since that call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.

So, in November of 2018, I noted to my subscribers that I was going long TLT just as it broke below the 113 level. At the time, many were telling me that I was crazy to go long bonds, as the Fed was still raising rates. The main reason many thought I was crazy was that “you cannot fight the Fed.”

Well, in my case, I recognized that the Fed cannot fight the market. And, the market was suggesting to me it was bottoming out and about to turn up quite strongly. Since that time, TLT has moved from just below 113 when we went long to as high as 126.69.

And, now, the Fed is no longer talking about raising rates, are they?

As far as my expectations, I still think TLT will rally up to at least 131, with a strong potential to see the 135/36 region on the next rally. However, I am still uncertain if that will be in a direct break out over 126.70, or if we see a bigger pullback first. At this point in time, I am leaning towards the direct break out. And, should we see TLT move over 126.70, that would confirm this expectation.

What this means is that the Fed will not only stop talking about raising rates, but you will start hearing discussions about them lowering rates. You see, the Fed follows the market. And, right now, the market is signaling that rates still have lower to go. So, the Fed will have to follow suit.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1558624187.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69594-The-Fed-Is-Caught-Behind-The-Curve
Housing Collapse 2.0 Continues as Predicted Here … as does everything else! http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69593-Housing-Collapse-2-0-Continues-as-Predicted-Here-…-as-does-everything-else!&goto=newpost Fri, 28 Jun 2019 06:33:30 GMT *Existing home sales were down again nationally (4.4%) in April (fourteenth month in a row of declining sales year on year). That is the longest... Existing home sales were down again nationally (4.4%) in April (fourteenth month in a row of declining sales year on year). That is the longest stretch without a single positive month since the housing-market collapse that brought on the Great Recession.

So far as I am aware, I was the first to state that what we had seen by the start of July, 2018, was clear evidence that the housing market was going into another decline. I pointed to the Seattle/King County market as the bellwether at the time because it had been the strongest and last market to collapse during the last housing crisis, so trouble in that robust market is trouble, indeed.

Prices are now down 3.5% in Seattle YoY. Another hot market in Washington State has been the tri-cities area in Eastern Washington where the median price is now 12% lower than a year ago. Redmond, WA, home of Microsoft, prices down 18%. Pricy Mountain View, CA, (between Palo Alto and Santa Clara), prices down 2.2% YoY. Portland, OR, prices down 1.2%.

For several months, it was mostly just sales that were down. As I said at the time, it would take awhile for prices to follow because sellers are highly resistant to dropping the value of their number-one asset; so, the squeeze needs to be on for awhile for median prices or average prices to fall. Well, the squeeze has been on long enough, and sellers are starting to capitulate to the long drop in demand. Prices are falling.

There are other parts of the country where prices are going up, of course; but overall the trend is down for sales and starting to move down now for prices. Prices had risen in most parts of the country to the same housing-bubble heights of the last time around.

I don’t think prices will probably fall as hard this time because the Federal Reserve probably will jump in sooner if it can, but there is not a long ways the Fed can go to lower interest or ease credit terms either in order to stimulate the market. Credit terms are already pretty slack

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1558531750.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69593-Housing-Collapse-2-0-Continues-as-Predicted-Here-…-as-does-everything-else!
China’s Nuclear Option to Sell US Treasurys http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69592-China’s-Nuclear-Option-to-Sell-US-Treasurys&goto=newpost Fri, 28 Jun 2019 06:28:41 GMT *We have deviated, these past several weeks, from matters monetary. We have written a lot about a nonmonetary driver of higher prices—mandatory... We have deviated, these past several weeks, from matters monetary. We have written a lot about a nonmonetary driver of higher prices—mandatory useless ingredients. The government forces businesses to put ingredients into their products that consumers don’t know about, and don’t want. These useless ingredients, such as ADA-compliant bathrooms and supply chain tracking, add a lot to the price of every good. Of course higher prices are reflected in the Consumer Price Index. And people say it is inflation.

We have also discussed a nonmonetary driver of lower prices. Every productive business is constantly working to remove useless ingredients too. They are not allowed to remove government-mandated useless ingredients, but all other ingredients are open season. In the research for his Forbes article on falling wages, Keith discovered that dairy producers found ways to eliminate 90% of the ingredients that go into producing milk between 1965 and 2012. For example, they reduced by two thirds the labor hours that support each cow.

Big Increase in Useless Ingredients, Small Increase in Price

Today, we look at the monetary driver of lower prices. Wait, what? Monetary? Lower prices?! Doesn’t monetary policy increase the quantity of dollars? Shouldn’t that cause prices to increase?

Not necessarily. Between September 2008 and September 2014—six years—the M0 measure of money supply increased from $875 billion to $4,150 billion. This is an increase of almost five times (M1 doubled, and M2 went up 50%–all data from the St Louis Fed). During this time, the consumer price index rose from 219 to 237. 8%.

All the while, you can be sure that the US Congress, plus state legislatures from Sacramento to Albany, and thousands of City Halls, were busy creating new costs for businesses to pay, not to mention new taxes. Governments at every level were driving up prices. Despite this relentless onslaught, prices rose only about 1% a year. We do not have data to quantify it, but we know it was, and is still, going on in a big way.

Some other countervailing force must be at work, else prices would have risen much faster. Last week, we wrote of one such force—the drive to reduce what business managers call waste

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1558445952.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69592-China’s-Nuclear-Option-to-Sell-US-Treasurys
Not Just a Trade War, But a Shooting War With China http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69591-Not-Just-a-Trade-War-But-a-Shooting-War-With-China&goto=newpost Fri, 28 Jun 2019 06:25:37 GMT *The Chinese came from nothing; only 40 years ago, they had nothing but a billion impoverished peasants. No money. No technology. No power. Today,... The Chinese came from nothing; only 40 years ago, they had nothing but a billion impoverished peasants. No money. No technology. No power. Today, they’re on par with the United States. But, if this trend continues – which it will – their economy will be triple the size of the US economy in 20 years.

Not just a trade war, but a shooting war with the Chinese seems inevitable. Because when tensions build up between states they eventually fight with each other. China is the major rising power. It’s got four times the US population, it’s soon going to be more economically powerful, and it’s going to reach military parity. It’s of a different culture than the US. The US government may figure it’s best to take them out while the balance still favors them. It’s a bit like the situation was with the USSR in the ’80s. They could see they were going into decline, and some Soviet generals figured it was “now or never” for a successful war. Fortunately they collapsed first.

The Chinese don’t like seeing US aircraft carriers off their coast any more than we would like to see Chinese aircraft carriers in the Gulf of Mexico or off Santa Catalina Island.

The last thing that we need is a war with the Chinese. But if something that’s been called the Thucydides Trap is valid – and I think it is – then it’s highly likely. It refers to the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, at the end of 5th century BC. The Trap is sprung when a reigning power strikes out at the advancing power while they still have a chance of winning.

The American military thinks that a shooting war is inevitable. And it probably is. Why? Well, 5,000 years of history teaches us that it’s better to start a war when you’re more powerful than your enemy rather than wait until they’re more powerful than you. It’s always been this way. The Golden Rule of statecraft is: Do unto others – but do it first. It’s a very dangerous situation.

The US may do something stupid, like fabricate an incident, and launch a preemptive strike against China. Or perhaps things just get out of control, as they did in World War I.

It would make about as much sense as the Peloponnesian War, or World War I. But these things can take on a life of their own.

The wars between European powers were bad enough. But when the US fought Japan it actually turned into a race war. What happened in the Pacific was far uglier than what happened in Europe. There were basically no prisoners taken.

The next big war – as opposed to a sport war, like those in the Middle East – is likely to be with China. That could make World War II look trivial by comparison.

The Next Financial Crisis Will Be “The Big One”

Nobody has a crystal ball, but I think you can see the dominos lining up. Will this be the big one, or will it just be another recession – an inconvenience, followed by even bigger bubbles? It’s a question of odds. And the more dominos that lineup – the political, economic, social, demographic, military, and cultural dominos – the more logical that this next one is going to be much bigger than what happened in 2008.

That’s why I use the analogy of 2007-2010 being the leading edge of this hurricane. We’ve had a very big eye of the storm because of absolutely massive money printing by central banks all over the world. It’s had the effect of throwing oil on the water.

When we go into the trailing edge of this hurricane, it’s going to be much worse, much different, and much longer lasting than the unpleasantness of 2007-2010. Why? Because that was caused by inflation and debt. We’ve had vastly more of that over the last decade to paper over the problems. I think we’re re-entering the hurricane now.

http://news.goldseek.com/LewRockwell/1558358782.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69591-Not-Just-a-Trade-War-But-a-Shooting-War-With-China
Is maintaining the Dow Silver Ratio the reason why silver is so cheap? http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69590-Is-maintaining-the-Dow-Silver-Ratio-the-reason-why-silver-is-so-cheap&goto=newpost Wed, 26 Jun 2019 13:18:40 GMT *26548 ÷ 15.24 = 1742* DJIA divided by silver spot price equals the DSR. Image:... 26548 ÷ 15.24 = 1742
DJIA divided by silver spot price equals the DSR.



It looks like the the current ratio is slightly above the blue line shown on that 200 year chart.

So as strange as it seems, perhaps we silver stackers should pull for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to help support the silver price?

I notice that 200 years ago it only took 5 ounces to buy the Dow, and a century ago it took 100 ounces.
Extrapolating the 20x silver ounces per century to today, the 1742 for the Dow seems a tad low. :|
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Silver Market silverheartbone http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69590-Is-maintaining-the-Dow-Silver-Ratio-the-reason-why-silver-is-so-cheap
Gold breakout http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69589-Gold-breakout&goto=newpost Tue, 25 Jun 2019 06:40:52 GMT This gold breakout looks interesting. It cleared a lot of this multi year resistance. Things will get interesting. Seems like the gold market is... This gold breakout looks interesting. It cleared a lot of this multi year resistance. Things will get interesting. Seems like the gold market is possibly pricing in an eventual rate cut, fueling a gold bull market. Unfortunately, silver doesn't seem to be confirming this breakout, but things are at least starting to turn bullish. ]]> Silver Market chroNick http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69589-Gold-breakout COT Silver Report - June 21, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69588-COT-Silver-Report-June-21-2019&goto=newpost Fri, 21 Jun 2019 22:02:00 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-june-21-2019-17675 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see... http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...-21-2019-17675

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1561145572.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69588-COT-Silver-Report-June-21-2019
Gold-Backed Cryptos – A Monetary Revolution http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69587-Gold-Backed-Cryptos-–-A-Monetary-Revolution&goto=newpost Thu, 20 Jun 2019 17:03:52 GMT *8 Reasons A Huge Gold-Mania Is About To Begin * No. 1: Basel III Moves Gold Closer to Officially Being Money Again No. 2: Central Banks Are... 8 Reasons A Huge Gold-Mania Is About To Begin

No. 1: Basel III Moves Gold Closer to Officially Being Money Again
No. 2: Central Banks Are Buying Record Amounts of Gold
No. 3: Oil for Gold – China’s Golden Alternative
No. 4: The Fed’s Dramatic Capitulation
No. 5: Takeover Frenzy in the Gold Mining Industry
No. 6: President Trump Is Pro-Gold
No. 7: Socialism Is on the Rise
No. 8: Gold-Backed Cryptos – A Monetary Revolution

The last catalyst for gold is cryptocurrencies backed by gold.
There are dozens of gold-backed cryptos sprouting up.

Peter Grosskopf, the CEO of Sprott, recently called gold-backed cryptocurrencies “the most important thing to happen to the gold market in the last several decades.”
Soon after, Sprott launched a gold-backed crypto it developed with its partners.
When Sprott – a leader in the natural resources industry – makes a big move into the gold-backed crypto space, it’s a definitive sign of where things are headed.

Gold-backed cryptos combine the best attributes of gold and cryptos. I can’t think of two other asset classes that have as many synergies. In other words, the whole is worth much more than the sum of the parts.
With cryptos redeemable for gold, we can now instantly send anyone anywhere in the world small or large amounts of gold – reliably and without interference. It’s nothing short of a monetary revolution.

Gold-backed cryptos are going to make using gold as money even more convenient for the average person and business. Anyone with a cell phone now can use gold in a way that was not possible before.
This is another big reason why I think gold is coming back as money.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ia-about-begin ]]>
Silver Market goldsilber http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69587-Gold-Backed-Cryptos-–-A-Monetary-Revolution
Strap Yourselves In – Gold May Take Off Like A Rocketship http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69586-Strap-Yourselves-In-–-Gold-May-Take-Off-Like-A-Rocketship&goto=newpost Tue, 18 Jun 2019 05:10:25 GMT *The last three years have been extremely difficult for metals enthusiast. If you speak with them, you would assume that gold has been going down... The last three years have been extremely difficult for metals enthusiast. If you speak with them, you would assume that gold has been going down for the last three years. Well, at least that is the impression you would get based upon their “sentiment.”

But, in fact, all gold has been doing for the last three years is move sideways. In other words, it has been consolidating. Yet, during that consolidation, sentiment among investors has soured to where it is akin to a bear market.

Moreover, over the last three years, we have had three different break out set ups in the complex. Yet, each time, the market has failed to capitalize on those set ups. And as I write this article, gold has another break out set up developing. Will it follow through on this one? This I cannot tell you with certainty.

My job as an analyst is to highlight opportunities within the markets I follow, and provide parameters to those opportunities. We base our analysis on probabilities, and for this reason, I am unable to tell you that something will certainly happen. Unfortunately, too many market participants view the market as black and white, whereas financial markets are non-linear environments wherein certainty is an impossibility.

In my last update, I outlined that if the GLD can provide us with a 5th wave higher, it would be a strong indication that the tide is turning in sentiment. And we got that 5thwave. At this point in time, as long as the GLD holds over 122, and then rallies strongly over 127.25, that could open the door to a major rally in gold that points us to at least the 138 region, but more preferably, up to at least the 145 region, with the path shown on the attached daily chart. And, of course, as the market rallies, we will continue to move up our supports for our stops. Remember, risk management should be a very important part of portfolio management. Otherwise, you are relying on the most destructive four letter word in the investment world: HOPE

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1560772807.php
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SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69586-Strap-Yourselves-In-–-Gold-May-Take-Off-Like-A-Rocketship