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Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com - SilverSeek.com Articles http://forums.silverseek.com/ Public comments on articles published on SilverSeek.com en Mon, 20 May 2019 01:37:33 GMT vBulletin 60 http://forums.silverseek.com/images/misc/rss.png Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com - SilverSeek.com Articles http://forums.silverseek.com/ COT Silver Report - May 17, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69540-COT-Silver-Report-May-17-2019&goto=newpost Fri, 17 May 2019 21:14:04 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-may-17-2019-17650 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see... http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...-17-2019-17650

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1558121436.php
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COT Silver Report - May 10, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69539-COT-Silver-Report-May-10-2019&goto=newpost Sat, 11 May 2019 00:27:57 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-may-10-2019-17649 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see... http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...-10-2019-17649

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1557516724.php
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COT Silver Report - May 3, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69537-COT-Silver-Report-May-3-2019&goto=newpost Sat, 04 May 2019 11:08:59 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-may-3-2019-17646 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the... http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...y-3-2019-17646

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1556911855.php


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How I Learned to Love the Debt http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69536-How-I-Learned-to-Love-the-Debt&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 13:26:07 GMT *Monetary Hockey Stick - Killer Debt - Dominoes Dropping - Washington DC, Dallas, and Puerto Rico**The US, Europe, and most of the developed... Monetary Hockey Stick
- Killer Debt
- Dominoes Dropping
- Washington DC, Dallas, and Puerto Rico
The US, Europe, and most of the developed world on are the road to Japanification. Like I wrote last week, we will see financial repression, ever increasing deficits, slower growth, etc. Essentially, the rest of us will begin to look like Japan with its astronomical deficits and ultra-dovish monetary policy.
I tried to emphasize this is not the end of the world. It’s not the best world, either, but we’ve gone too far to come back now. There is no significant constituency for any of the things it would take for the US government to balance its budget. Neither party wants to reduce the deficit, and the MMT fans want to make it even bigger.
That means the rules of investing we have come to know over the last 50 years are likely—as in very, very likely—to change. But we should generally do fine as long as we change our own investment strategies accordingly.
Ben Hunt over at Epsilon Theory recently riffed on Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 masterpiece, Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb. He did a great parody with it called, Modern Monetary Theory: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the National Debt.


Source: wikimedia

Could we actually see Modern Monetary Theory in the US? Lacy Hunt in his latest quarterly explains how it is theoretically possible for the Treasury Department to issue zero maturity, zero interest bonds to the Fed, which would then deposit dollars into the Treasury bank account. This would, at a minimum, create inflation and possibly hyperinflation. To say it would be destructive is like comparing an ocean breeze to a category five hurricane. It would in fact be a financial disaster of biblical proportions.

I don’t believe it will happen that way, though. We will instead run up debt the old-fashioned way: Japanification and massive amounts of quantitative easing. Let’s look at how that might play out.

http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumW...1556517661.php
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<![CDATA[GoldSeek Radio: John Williams & Dr. Douglas Vogt]]> http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69535-GoldSeek-Radio-John-Williams-amp-Dr-Douglas-Vogt&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 13:20:50 GMT *http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2019/04.26.2019/GSR-04.26.19-c.mp3* http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2019...04.26.19-c.mp3 ]]> SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69535-GoldSeek-Radio-John-Williams-amp-Dr-Douglas-Vogt GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Bob Hoye http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69534-GoldSeek-Radio-Nugget-Bob-Hoye&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 13:16:57 GMT http://email.goldseek.com/lt.php?c=9...e.04.30.19.mp3 ]]> SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69534-GoldSeek-Radio-Nugget-Bob-Hoye Bubble, Bubble, Double Trouble http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69533-Bubble-Bubble-Double-Trouble&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 13:12:41 GMT *The Donald was at it again in Wisconsin this weekend, reiterating his patented boast that the US economy is booming like never before. We’re now... The Donald was at it again in Wisconsin this weekend, reiterating his patented boast that the US economy is booming like never before.

We’re now the No. 1 economy anywhere in the world and it’s not even close,” he said on Saturday night at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

“At the end of six years, you’re going to be left with the strongest country you’ve ever had,” he said.

We beg to differ, profoundly. The debt- and bubble-freighted US economy is actually running out of gas after a long, artificial cycle of tepid expansion; and so far the Donald’s Trade Wars and fiscal borrowing binge have only piled more debilitating baggage on America’s deeply impaired economy.

In fact, the Donald is badly betraying Flyover America because his mindless Fed-bashing virtually guarantees a repeat of the 2008 stock market blow-off and subsequent C-suite fostered recession.

That is, by essentially shutting down the Fed’s belated normalization campaign, and forcing the Fed head into his humiliating, pusillanimous Powell Pivot, the last feeble barrier against a blow-off top has been removed.

Literally, the robo-machines and feckless buy-the-dips day traders have been unleashed to keep pushing the stock indices higher until the last lemming hits the bid on his way over the cliffs. But once the 2019 version of Wall Street’s post-bubble flameout ignites, there will be no stopping it because there is nothing but bad facts, troubles and headwinds ahead – all of which are being insouciantly ignored in these final moments of Fed-enabled mania.

Indeed, it’s hard to imagine how our clueless central bankers could have done anything more to crush those very ingredients – two-way trade, risk premiums, meaningful carry trade costs and short-seller skepticism – that keep financial markets disciplined, balanced and sustainable.

To be sure, we believe that the Fed was already way, way too late in its belated attempted to get interest rates off the zero bound and shrink its hideously bloated balance sheet toward something that might be vaguely described as normalized. But by capitulating to the Donald’s angry tweets and Wall Street’s juvenile hissy fits at the end of 2018 just when financial discipline became acutely imperative, the Fed catalyzed the worst possible development at month #118 of a business cycle that is literally gasping for air.

http://news.goldseek.com/LewRockwell/1556804547.php
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Semiconductor Chips Are The Modern Dutch Tulip Bulbs http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69532-Semiconductor-Chips-Are-The-Modern-Dutch-Tulip-Bulbs&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 13:06:07 GMT *The semiconductor stocks continued melting up last week until Intel threw some cold water on the Dutch tulip bulb price-chasing party. TXN reported... The semiconductor stocks continued melting up last week until Intel threw some cold water on the Dutch tulip bulb price-chasing party. TXN reported Tuesday after the close. Revenues declined 5% from the year-earlier quarter. The management stated that “demand continued to slow across most markets. TXN then said Q2 revenues would drop 10% from Q2 2018. It said earnings would be down 13%. Management also explained that historically down-cycles last 4-5 quarters. With the Company 2 quarters into a down-cycle, it would seem that the “green shoots” sighted by some companies in Q1 are nowhere in sight. TXN insiders have been very heavy sellers of the stock.
The chart below is a good example of how the hedge fund algo and retail daytrader momentum chasers operate:


TXN closed around $116.50 before it reported. On the headline “beat,” TXN stock spiked up $6 almost immediately. Price-discovery then set in, as the after-hours traders dumped shares in response to the fundamental reality of TXN’s earnings report. The stock closed after-hours at $113.70, down nearly $9 from the initial reaction to the headlines.

But then on Wednesday Dutch tulip-mania gripped TXN’s stock price. TXN opened green from Tuesday’s regular close and traded as high as $118.99. This is despite the Company’s lowered guidance for the next few quarters. The last time TXN experienced a two-quarter sequential decline in revenues was in 2001 during a recession.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1556725727.php
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Stop feeding the Chinese ‘Belt and Road’ trojan horse http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69531-Stop-feeding-the-Chinese-‘Belt-and-Road’-trojan-horse&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 13:02:35 GMT *In March Italy broke ranks with its EU partners in joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative, known also as One Belt, One Road or the New Silk Road.... In March Italy broke ranks with its EU partners in joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative, known also as One Belt, One Road or the New Silk Road.

Students of history know the original “Silk Road” refers to the ancient network of trading routes between China and Europe, which served as both a conduit for the movement of goods, and an exchange of ideas, for centuries.

The “New Silk Road” is the term for an ambitious trade corridor first proposed by the Chinese regime under its current president, Xi Jinping, in 2013. The grand design also known, confusingly, as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a “belt” of overland corridors and a “road” of shipping lanes.

It consists of a vast network of railways, pipelines, highways and ports that would extend west through the mountainous former Soviet republics and south to Pakistan, India and southeast Asia.

So far over 60 countries, containing two-thirds of the world’s population, have either signed onto BRI or say they intend to do so. According to the Center for Foreign Relations, the Chinese government has already spent about $200 billion on the growing list of mega-projects projects including the $68 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Morgan Stanley predicts China’s expenditures on BRI could climb as high as $1.3 trillion by 2027.

The Belt and Road Initiative is seen by proponents as an economic driver of proportions never seen before in human history. It would not only allow Asia to relieve its “infrastructure bottleneck” ie. an $800 billion annual shortfall on infrastructure spending, but bring less-developed neighboring nations into the modern world by providing a growing market of 1.38 billion Chinese consumers.

Opponents argue that is naive and the real intent of BRI is to carve new Chinese spheres of influence in Asia that will replace the United States, in-debt poor nations to China for decades, and restore China to its former imperial glory.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1556723347.php
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The Debt Time Bomb: Amend, Extend and Pretend http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69530-The-Debt-Time-Bomb-Amend-Extend-and-Pretend&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 12:46:12 GMT *Have you ever heard the phrase, “What a gold mine!”? That common, age-old expression was actually a positive reference to having something very... Have you ever heard the phrase, “What a gold mine!”?

That common, age-old expression was actually a positive reference to having something very valuable. Notably, a gold mine that paid its owners very well by producing gold.

Yet in the last two decades (the span of my career), gold miners have been anything but responsible dividend payers to their owners – the shareholders.

It’s a theme I’ve been introducing to my readers over the last couple of months. And this topic is picking up major steam.

Investors (and capital) are starting to wake up.

While executives have made fortunes running the larger gold producers, the shareholders have been given the shaft (no pun intended)! Cash and stock compensation for executives continue to grow. Yet, dividends to shareholders for the most part have gone in the opposite direction.

It’s no wonder wealth funds like the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund – with trillions under management – have been cutting weightings in the mining sector for a decade. Take a look

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1556629600.php
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A Look Inside the Scheme to Eliminate Cash, Impose Negative Interest http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69529-A-Look-Inside-the-Scheme-to-Eliminate-Cash-Impose-Negative-Interest&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 12:42:19 GMT *Central bankers and politicians love inflation, but they need “bag holders” to have faith in the value of the fiat currency IOUs they hold. The... Central bankers and politicians love inflation, but they need “bag holders” to have faith in the value of the fiat currency IOUs they hold. The trick is to avoid suddenly destroying the ephemeral confidence in currencies by printing too much too fast.

Central bankers may also need to limit the options inflation wary citizens have for escaping.

They are both shifty and innovative when it comes to making sure the ill effects of perpetually devaluing currency are primarily borne by the citizenry.

Lying and trying to hide what they are doing to the currency has been tradition with politicians since Roman times. Nero began quietly reducing the silver content of the Denarius around 60 A.D.

Today central bankers and governments don’t have to bother with altering physical coins. Every currency can be quietly devalued electronically.

The financial central planners try to calm the herd with rigged inflation statistics designed to show the money losing purchasing power far more slowly than it actually is.

They use “hedonic adjustments,” “geometric weighting,” and many other ploys to arrive at a politically palatable inflation rate. Or, even more clever, they convince investors the best way to evaluate the strength of the money is simply to compare it with other fiat currencies.

That is how the U.S. dollar has earned its reputation for “strength” in recent years.

Headlines in the financial press broadcast the DXY index is rising. The dollar buys more euros and yen, which matters to practically no one except tourists. Meanwhile it buys far less of stuff that does matter -- food, housing, and most everything people need to live.

Another trick is for politicians and central bankers to simply print money under the guise of economic imperative.

The 2008 bank bailouts, the Fed program to buy toxic mortgage securities at par value from banks and the trillions printed to buy U.S. Treasury debt all fit in this category.

The “inflationistas” running our monetary system aren’t done innovating either. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published an article on how to implement “negative interest rates.” Officials want banks to be able to charge depositors for holding funds in checking or savings accounts.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1556559210.php
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COT Silver Report - April 26, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69528-COT-Silver-Report-April-26-2019&goto=newpost Fri, 03 May 2019 12:36:19 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-april-26-2019-17638 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see... http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...-26-2019-17638

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1556306678.php
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COT Silver Report - April 19, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69527-COT-Silver-Report-April-19-2019&goto=newpost Fri, 26 Apr 2019 09:20:16 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-april-19-2019-17633 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see... http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...-19-2019-17633

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1555949471.php
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Magic Money Tree Economics http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69526-Magic-Money-Tree-Economics&goto=newpost Fri, 26 Apr 2019 09:14:42 GMT *Our Current Financial Circumstances: 1.The U.S. is $22 trillion in debt and burdened with $100 – $200 trillion more in unfunded liabilities. Just... Our Current Financial Circumstances:

1.The U.S. is $22 trillion in debt and burdened with $100 – $200 trillion more in unfunded liabilities. Just to pay the interest the U.S. must borrow. Debt is rapidly rising and cannot be paid unless “they” default or hyper-inflate the dollar.

2.Chairman Jerome Powell stated, “The U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable path.” Even the Fed admits what everyone should realize.

3.Global debt is $250 trillion. Some countries have descended farther down the debt-paved road to economic hell than the U.S.

4.Pensions are under-funded, student debt is a disaster, the main street economy is weak, real estate prices and sales are falling, retail sales are down, real wages have been stagnant since the 1970s, and no credible plan exists to fix debt, deficits or devaluations.

5.The political and financial elite profit from wars, inflation, devaluation, strip-mining assets, and income inequality.

6.It’s an ugly picture with no easy answers. But debt, deficits and QE levitated stock markets to all-time highs.

MAGIC MONEY TREE ECONOMICS & MMT.

Global central banks have created over $20 trillion in “funny money” to bail out commercial banks, purchase stocks and ETFs, buy sovereign bonds, levitate stock markets and force interest rates lower. They implemented the central bank version of magic money tree economics.

MMT—Modern Monetary Theory—supporters claim that “printing” dollars enables huge expenditures and makes excessive debt irrelevant

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1556195672.php
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The Two Faces of Inflation, Report - postscript http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69525-The-Two-Faces-of-Inflation-Report-postscript&goto=newpost Fri, 26 Apr 2019 09:06:26 GMT *We have a postscript to last week’s article. We said that rising prices today are not due to the dollar going down. It’s not that the dollar buys... We have a postscript to last week’s article. We said that rising prices today are not due to the dollar going down. It’s not that the dollar buys less. It’s that producers are forced to include more and more ingredients, which are not only useless to the consumer. But even invisible to the consumer. For example, dairy producers must provide ADA-compliant bathrooms to their employees. The producer may give you less milk for your dollar, but now they’re giving you ADA-bathroom’ed-employees. You may not value it, but it’s in the milk.

On Twitter, one guy defended the Quantity Theory of Money this way: inflation (i.e. monetary debasement) is offset by going to China, where they don’t have an Environmental Protection Agency. In other words, the Chinese government does not force manufacturers to put so many useless ingredients into their products as the US government does.

He thought this comment disproved our argument. But actually it reinforces it.

In part II of Keith’s theory of interest and prices, he talks about buying a pair of Levis jeans in 2013 for $5 less than he paid for the same jeans thirty years previously, in 1983. Those who push the inflationtheory often assert that the official government inflation number is a lie. The real rate, they tell us, is much higher.

OK, suppose the true rate of monetary debasement were running at 10% per year. If that were true, then a $50 pair of jeans in 1983 should have sold for $872 in 2013 (and $1,545 today). Obviously, the price of jeans is nowhere near this high.

The gold commenter guy asserts that the price is not so high, because of regulatory arbitrage.

But is it plausible that regulatory arbitrage can turn a 17-fold increase into a 10% cut in price? That you can get $872 worth of product for $45? Obviously not.

His comment actually proves our point that the US government is forcing manufacturers to put in useless ingredients. If you can find a jurisdiction where the list of useless ingredients isn’t too big, you can manufacture, warehouse, distribute, and retail jeans for 10% less than you could thirty years earlier.

The prevailing view of economics is arguably the neoclassical school. This school attempts to marry supply and demand with Keynesian ideas. In money, the consensus is clear. It is entirely uncontroversial (except for our merry little band). The Quantity Theory of Money holds that the value of a currency is inversely proportional to the number of units of it. Value = 1/N.

This ideas is based on the supply and demand model. If the supply of a currency goes up (without regard to how, by what mechanism), then its price goes down. And the price of the money is set in terms of consumer goods. So the price of the dollar is 1/milk for example

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1556031380.php
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