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Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com - SilverSeek.com Articles http://forums.silverseek.com/ Public comments on articles published on SilverSeek.com en Fri, 21 Sep 2018 18:15:32 GMT vBulletin 60 http://forums.silverseek.com/images/misc/rss.png Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com - SilverSeek.com Articles http://forums.silverseek.com/ Trump’s Backdoor Power Play to Rein In the Fed http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69055-Trump’s-Backdoor-Power-Play-to-Rein-In-the-Fed&goto=newpost Wed, 19 Sep 2018 10:01:06 GMT *By Stefan Gleason “Just run the presses – print money.” That’s what President Donald Trump supposedly instructed his former chief economic... By Stefan Gleason

“Just run the presses – print money.”

That’s what President Donald Trump supposedly instructed his former chief economic adviser Gary Cohn to do in response to the budget deficit. The quote appears in Bob Woodward’s controversial book Fear: Trump in the White House.

Trump disputes many of the anecdotes Woodward assembled. But regardless of whether the President used those exact words, they do reflect an “easy money” philosophy that he has expressed many times before.

Trump Likes Low Rates, Loose Money

President Trump has described himself as a “low interest rate person.”

This past summer, Trump launched a very public attack on the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign. He wants it to stop because it’s making the dollar “too strong” and threatening to undercut his tax cut fiscal stimulus.

There’s only so much dollar strength the U.S. economy and U.S. debt and equity markets can take. President Trump is keenly aware of the risks.

A Fed rate hike next week is a given at this point.


Trump Could Strike Back by Auditing the Fed

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1537297200.php
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There will be warnings! http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69054-There-will-be-warnings!&goto=newpost Wed, 19 Sep 2018 09:56:18 GMT *If you rely on the mainstream financial press for your information then you could be forgiven for believing that financial crises happen with no... If you rely on the mainstream financial press for your information then you could be forgiven for believing that financial crises happen with no warning. However, there are always warnings if you know where to look.

Here are four leading indicators of financial stress and/or economic confidence that are both easy to monitor and worth monitoring. It’s likely that all four of these indicators will issue timely warnings prior to the next financial crisis and a virtual certainty that at least two of them will.

1) The yield curve, as depicted on the following chart by the 10yr-2yr yield spread.

As explained in many previous commentaries, the yield curve ‘flattening’ to an extreme and then beginning to steepen warns that an inflation-fueled boom has begun to unravel. For example, the yield curve reached its maximum ‘flatness’ in November-2006 and provided clear evidence of a reversal in June-2007. That was the financial crisis warning. By August of 2007 the ‘steepening’ trend was accelerating.

The yield curve’s current situation looks more like Q4-2006 than Q3-2007. It is nothing like 2008.

2) Credit spreads, as depicted on the following chart by the difference between the Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Effective Yield and the yield on the 10-Year T-Note.

Credit spreads start to widen, indicating a decline in economic confidence and/or a rise in the perceived risk of default at the junk end of the debt market, well before a recession or crisis. For example, evidence of a new widening trend in credit spreads emerged in July-2007 and by November-2007 it was very obvious that trouble was brewing.

Note that when it comes to warning of a coming crisis, credit spreads are far more likely to generate a false positive signal than a false negative signal, that is, they are far more likely to cry wolf when there’s no wolf than to remain silent when there is a wolf.

Right now they are silent.

http://news.goldseek.com/Speculative...1537272300.php
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China says Trump forces its hand, will retaliate against new U.S. tariffs http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69053-China-says-Trump-forces-its-hand-will-retaliate-against-new-U-S-tariffs&goto=newpost Tue, 18 Sep 2018 14:38:37 GMT *China said on Tuesday that it had no choice but to retaliate against new U.S. trade tariffs, raising the risk that U.S. President Donald Trump could... China said on Tuesday that it had no choice but to retaliate against new U.S. trade tariffs, raising the risk that U.S. President Donald Trump could soon impose duties on virtually all of the Chinese goods that America buys.

The Chinese commerce ministry’s statement came hours after Trump said he was imposing 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of imports from China, and threatened duties on about $267 billion more if China retaliated against the U.S. action.

The brief statement gave no details on China’s plans, but Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a news briefing later that the U.S. steps have brought “new uncertainty” to talks between the two countries.

“China has always emphasized that the only correct way to resolve the China-U.S. trade issue is via talks and consultations held on an equal, sincere and mutually respectful basis. But at this time, everything the United States does not give the impression of sincerity or goodwill,” he added

The Chinese commerce ministry’s statement came hours after Trump said he was imposing 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of imports from China, and threatened duties on about $267 billion more if China retaliated against the U.S. action.

The brief statement gave no details on China’s plans, but Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a news briefing later that the U.S. steps have brought “new uncertainty” to talks between the two countries.

“China has always emphasized that the only correct way to resolve the China-U.S. trade issue is via talks and consultations held on an equal, sincere and mutually respectful basis. But at this time, everything the United States does not give the impression of sincerity or goodwill,” he added (Oh now they want to play fair)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1LX2M3
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Trump will slap 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods — http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69052-Trump-will-slap-10-tariffs-on-200-billion-in-Chinese-goods-—&goto=newpost Tue, 18 Sep 2018 12:27:44 GMT *Trump will slap 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods — and they will go to 25% at year-end* *•President Donald Trump will put 10 percent... Trump will slap 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods — and they will go to 25% at year-end

•President Donald Trump will put 10 percent tariffs on an $200 billion in Chinese goods, which will go up to 25 percent at the end of the year.

•The action heightens the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies.

•Trump is considering whether to put tariffs on more than $250 billion more in Chinese products.

President Donald Trump will impose 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, and those duties will rise to 25 percent at the end of the year.

The action, announced by the Trump administration Monday, escalates a trade conflict between the world's two largest economies. China has already threatened to retaliate against new duties.

The White House removed about 300 goods from a previously proposed list of affected products, including smart watches, some chemicals, and other products such as bicycle helmets and high chairs.

Trump, in a statement, said that the tariffs would rise to 25 percent on Jan. 1, 2019, adding that "if China takes retaliatory action against our farmers or other industries, we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/trum...escalates.html
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Lehman - Ten Years Later http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69051-Lehman-Ten-Years-Later&goto=newpost Tue, 18 Sep 2018 12:20:53 GMT *My Two Cents Andy Sutton / Graham Mehl This will not be a long piece. It is not a memorial to Lehman Brothers nor is it an honorarium to the... My Two Cents

Andy Sutton / Graham Mehl

This will not be a long piece. It is not a memorial to Lehman Brothers nor is it an honorarium to the system that created Lehman, then crushed it along with a wide swath of American wealth and capital as well. This is not a tribute to government leaders such as Henry Paulson and others at the USTreasury who abused the trust afforded them by the American people and conducted one of the most brazen and heinous broad-daylight robberies in the history of the human race. We want you to remember what happened because, in the ten years since Lehman, not a thing has been done to prevent another episode and all the ingredients are present. The only thing missing is the trigger.

A Brief Review of Events

2008 had already had more than its share of financial turmoil. In the months leading up to 9/15/2008, Bear Stearns, Fannie/Freddie, and AIG had already had major blowouts. The stock markets were very itchy and everyone was on edge. Most who worked in the industry knew it was just a matter of time until something much more systemic took place. Up until this time, the contagion had been mostly limited to the US, with some minor external collateral damage. We were both heavily involved in the financial/economic landscape at this time. Andy was running his investment advisory and economic consultancy firm and Graham was a strategy analyst for a major G7 central bank. We had already both come to independent conclusions that this was going to be a long emergency as coined by James Kunstler. This was not going to be a 3 or 6-month event and then it would be roses and cherries and cream for the whole world.

The system was not going to be given a hard reset, but a soft one. There are many, many individuals and organizations who were getting filthy rich off the fleecing of Americans, Europeans, and Asians alike and they weren’t going to stop the gravy train just because a few banks got out of control with their leverage. We both firmly believed going in that the banks had already been issued a guarantee of sorts that they would not be allowed to perish. Government funds (and other funds as necessary) would be used to bail them out. Except for Lehman. People always focused on why Lehman was allowed to die. They forget Bear Stearns was allowed to die. While the company died, its assets and business were transferred first to the not-so-USFed, then to JPMorgan for $10/share - $123 less than its 52-week high. A fire sale. The claim was made that the ‘fed’ couldn’t save the company and the fire sale had to happen. The shareholders got their heads handed to them. Some of you reading this might be among the victims. Make no mistake, this was a crime and was committed by criminals. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan was never called to task for his firm’s role in the blowup of Bear Stearns.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1537272780.php
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Is This Just the Calm Before the Storm? http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69050-Is-This-Just-the-Calm-Before-the-Storm&goto=newpost Tue, 18 Sep 2018 12:17:25 GMT *Florence, now a tropical depression, made landfall in North Carolina on Friday, bringing with it destruction and calamity, the cost of which could... Florence, now a tropical depression, made landfall in North Carolina on Friday, bringing with it destruction and calamity, the cost of which could top $170 billion, according to analytics firm CoreLogic. If so, that would make it the costliest storm ever to hit the U.S. To date, 2005’s Hurricane Katrina holds the top spot, costing an estimated $160 billion, followed by last year’s Harvey ($125 billion) and Maria ($90 billion).

Not to minimize the impact Florence will have on millions of Americans’ lives, but storms, even of this size, have rarely triggered major equity selloffs. According to research firm CFRA, in the last 15 years, the S&P 500 Index declined an average 0.2 percent in the month after a hurricane, but was up an average 3.9 percent in the subsequent three months. Home improvement companies such as Home Depot and Lowe’s could be beneficiaries, while insurance companies might take a hit.

Markets are subdued right now, with the S&P 500 having gone more than 55 days without a 1 percent move in either direction. Trading volumes are also lower-than-average, suggesting Wall Street is in wait-and-see mode before making major adjustments.

Could this just be the calm before the storm?

Consumers and Small Business Owners Are Feeling Good

Appropriately enough, Florence comes to us on the 10-year anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ collapse— the spark that set off the financial crisis—reminding us it’s never the wrong time to prepare for such a catastrophe. (I’ll have more to say on Lehman later.) That includes now, even as a raft of positive economic data was released last week. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index climbed to 100.8 in September, against expectations of only 96.6. This was its second-highest reading since 2004.

What’s more, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index soared to 108.8 in August, its highest level ever in the series’ 45-year history.

“As the tax and regulatory landscape changed, so did small business expectations and plans,” commented National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) president and CEO Juanita Duggan.

Against this background, Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told Bloomberg last Thursday that the market “could get a lot higher before it comes down… It’s highly priced, but it could get much more highly priced. It’s a risky market now.”

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1537272180.php
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Is The COT Report Still Valid? Teddy Buttler http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69049-Is-The-COT-Report-Still-Valid-Teddy-Buttler&goto=newpost Mon, 17 Sep 2018 21:07:01 GMT *There can be little question that there has been a literal explosion in awareness and public commentary focusing on the Commitments of Traders (COT)... There can be little question that there has been a literal explosion in awareness and public commentary focusing on the Commitments of Traders (COT) Report and the analysis of silver and gold (and other markets) in accordance with futures market positioning. No doubt the interest has been generated by the reliability of the COT market structure approach over the long term, but also by the recent extreme and unprecedented massive size of the short positions of the managed money traders in gold and, particularly, in silver. The managed money short position in COMEX silver futures is now nearly 50% larger than it was at the previous record peak in April.

Coincident with the explosion in COT commentary and the unprecedented managed money short positions, there have been a number of questions related to the current efficacy and accuracy of the report. Some have raised questions whether the report is still a valid barometer of past and prospective price change, as well as if the report accurately reflects actual positioning by traders or whether there is deliberate misreporting. These are significant concerns worthy of analysis. After all, if the COT report is no longer valid or trader positions are being misreported, the growing commentary is especially misplaced.

Behind the question of whether the COT report is still valid seems to be the reality that positioning has reached extremes never witnessed in the face of prices yet to reverse. This raises the alarm to some that something has gone haywire and the premise behind market structure analysis no longer works. While understandable, nothing could be further from the truth. Yes, the managed money short positions in silver and gold have reached extremes never before witnessed, but the positioning extremes are completely in synch with price performance.

To be clear, I’m not claiming that the record extreme short positioning by the managed money traders has resulted in the lowest prices ever recorded for silver and gold, as that would clearly be untrue. What I am claiming is that the record short positioning by the managed money traders has resulted in an equally unprecedented pattern of price – there has never been a consecutive weekly decline in the price of silver extending to 14 weeks in history. In other words, the positioning matches the price pattern perfectly; which is exactly what it is supposed to do. Just because no one (certainly including me) predicted we would have record and unprecedented managed money shorting starting on June 12 does it mean the COT report is no longer valid. Many things are beyond prediction.

In fact, the nearly identical pattern of positioning and price change is the clearest proof to date of the validity of the market structure approach based upon the COT report. Far from questioning whether the market structure approach is still valid, there should instead be heightened awareness that the unprecedented short selling by the managed money traders is the sole cause of the unprecedented string of consecutive weeks of lower prices.

I think I understand why some may be questioning if the COT report is still valid, namely, we have yet to rally from what is the most bullish market set up in history. Instead the market structure has continued to get more extremely bullish, as the managed money traders have continued to sell and sell short in COMEX silver futures, while the commercials, particularly JPMorgan, have continued to buy. But the COT report was never about the precise timing of reversals of positions, just that the reversals would come from extreme positions.

http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...ll-valid-17413
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Post-Lehman: $250 Trillion in Debt And Counting - David Morgan http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69048-Post-Lehman-250-Trillion-in-Debt-And-Counting-David-Morgan&goto=newpost Mon, 17 Sep 2018 16:33:50 GMT *In many ways, all the talk about global central banks beginning a “great unwind” of their extraordinary monetary stimulus is positively quaint.... In many ways, all the talk about global central banks beginning a “great unwind” of their extraordinary monetary stimulus is positively quaint. After all, how can officials from the Federal Reserve to the Bank of Japan even pretend to know how to reverse what they’ve done over the past decade?

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1537185780.php
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Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Market - Avi Gilburt http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69047-Trade-Wars-Are-Going-To-Crash-This-Market-Avi-Gilburt&goto=newpost Mon, 17 Sep 2018 12:42:20 GMT *This week, I am going to bring back the list of reasons that have been paraded before you over the last three-plus years as to why the stock market... This week, I am going to bring back the list of reasons that have been paraded before you over the last three-plus years as to why the stock market rally is over:

Brexit – NOPE

Frexit – NOPE

Grexit - NOPE

Italian referendum - NOPE

Rise in interest rates - NOPE

Cessation of QE - NOPE

Terrorist attacks - NOPE

Crimea – NOPE

Trump – NOPE

Market not trading on fundamentals – NOPE

Low volatility – NOPE

Record-high margin debt – NOPE

Hindenburg omens - NOPE

Syrian missile attack - NOPE

North Korea – NOPE

Record hurricane damage in Houston, Florida, and Puerto Rico - NOPE

Spanish referendum – NOPE

Las Vegas attack - NOPE

New York terrorist attack – NOPE (market even rallied strongly)

If we adopt the exogenous causation theory proposed by the analysts that expected these events to cause a stock market crash, then it leads us to the exact opposite conclusion: these events “caused” a 50% rally in the stock market during the last three-plus years.

Many of you are shaking your heads right now, thinking my point simply preposterous. If you think about it, that means you are willing to accept this exogenous causation theory when the narrative fits the facts, but ignore it when it does not. But, if you are consistent in your analysis, then you must come to the same conclusion I noted above. Otherwise, your analysis is simply faulty. I clearly adopt the latter perspective. We will address this again below.

As I do from time to time, I read some of the articles out there from authors who have been bearish for years, as I always wonder if they will turn bullish as we approach a market high of significance. With some of them, you see hints of bullishness beginning to seep into their analysis of late, whereas others will always be bearish. But, the one thing they all have in common is that they have all used the items in the list posted above as the latest and greatest reasons they will be proven right in their bearish assumptions, even though the market has rallied over 50% against their expectations.

The latest and greatest reason that the market will crash is the current trade war. In fact, one such bearish author, who has remained staunchly bearish for years, wrote this recently:

“The trade war could bring down the U.S. stock market in so many ways. It could further hit emerging market economies and cause global contagion and recession. China could further devalue the yuan . . . China could sell Treasuries or announce their true, and massively understated, Gold holdings. Tariffs could impact American companies’ costs and, therefore, their earnings. They could also cause a spike in consumer inflation and higher interest rates and yields, hurting consumer spending and increasing consumer debt defaults.”

We often chide economists for living in ivory towers while applying their lab-based economic theories which ultimately do not work in the real world. I wonder why we do not do the same with analysts. Let me show you what I mean:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1537185900.php
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Global Crisis Hot Spots and Pressure Points http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69046-Global-Crisis-Hot-Spots-and-Pressure-Points&goto=newpost Mon, 17 Sep 2018 03:59:09 GMT *By: Jim Willie Golden Jackass A preface is required to explain that the US Federal Reserve is responsible for every grand financial crisis in the... By: Jim Willie Golden Jackass

A preface is required to explain that the US Federal Reserve is responsible for every grand financial crisis in the last 30 years, dating back to the Great Depression and its supposed spurious resolution to Black Monday of 1987. Little realized is that the ’87 crash was a direct result of the impact from outsourcing US industry, whose trend began in 1984 with Intel. The lost legitimate income had a grand effect on the inflows to the US Stock Market. Of course, the newly forming Reich Economic team preferred to describe it differently. The important outcome from the cleanup was the creation of multi-$trillion bank derivatives to serve as phony foundation for the entire Western banking system. Greenspan blessed it as good and firm, but now we know it was soft and weak. These derivatives are blowing up, which will require bailouts and a replacement in the Gold Standard. Instead, expect the derivatives to ramp up further with greater leverage up to the assured catastrophe. The fallout will be great.

Two critical factors have contributed to the ruin of the King Dollar realm, the global financial structure in place since 1974, but greatly altered since 2012. The first is the entire concept of outsourcing US industry. This is a tremendous textbook example of micro-economics making individual success stories with greater profitability, like to Intel Corp, which began the outsourcing trend. These realized lower costs. But the failure is at the macro-economic level, since the USEconomy lost a large chunk of its legitimate income. The Reich Economists (aka Keynesian mutants) promoted the entire movement, and steered the nation toward the clean society with financial engineering. Its results can be seen with financial crisis in sequence without end, at first with the subprime mortgage bond situation and later with USGovt debt dependent upon direct monetization. The entire US financial structure has become a computer machinery driven obscenity with pervasive derivative usage in hidden form. It is probably in the $trillions each month, ever since the vast Petro-Dollar derivatives began to be dismantled. Now the USEconomy is debt-ridden beyond simple patchwork solutions. which will require bank bailouts and a replacement in the Gold Standard. Instead, expect the households to see bail-ins in a grand betrayal and exercise of tyranny.

The critical second factor is the QE monetary policy. It is pure unsterilized hyper monetary inflation, the worst possible kind. The Reich Economists call it stimulus, when it is really just an asset inflation engine for the stock and bond markets. The result is what many analysts have begun to call the EVERYTHING BOND BUBBLE. All sovereign bonds, led by the USTBond and extending to the EuroBond, have become qualified as subprime bonds. They have very few buyers outside the central bank secretive trading desks. They have growing debt levels. The USGovt debt has a trajectory for over a $2 trillion deficit in this fiscal year. They deserve 8% to 10% yields, but the computer machinery keeps it under supposed control. A magnificent historical USTreasury Bond default via debt restructure is assured, unless President Trump can confiscate several $trillion lying around in elite criminal coffers, under threat of execution for mass murder, grand larceny, sex slavery, and treason. Now the USTBond is being discarded on a global scale like yesterday’s newspaper and dumped in Eastern large-scale projects, which will require bank bailouts and a replacement in the Gold Standard.

PREFACE ON REICH RECESSION

The consumer price inflation index is running at 10% annually. The fierce recession since 2006 never ended. The lie on GDP economic growth is between 4% and 7% every year. The stat rats in the USGovt busily suppress the CPI recorded officially by this amount, in the price inflation calculation. It is done so in a grotesque exaggeration in persistent fascist propaganda. This is the worst inflationary recession in the US history. It requires much more money creation to prevent a total collapse. The solution is astonishing hyper monetary inflation to wash away debt, or else grand systemic failure. The principal beneficiaries are Wall Street bankers and those wishing to finance the USGovt gargantuan debt.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1537099980.php
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<![CDATA[China's record trade surplus with U.S. adds fuel to trade war fire]]> http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69045-China-s-record-trade-surplus-with-U-S-adds-fuel-to-trade-war-fire&goto=newpost Mon, 17 Sep 2018 03:18:39 GMT *BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s trade surplus with the United States widened to a record in August even as the country’s export growth slowed slightly,... BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s trade surplus with the United States widened to a record in August even as the country’s export growth slowed slightly, an outcome that could push President Donald Trump to turn up the heat on Beijing in their cantankerous trade dispute.

The politically sensitive surplus hit $31.05 billion in August, up from $28.09 billion in July, customs data showed on Saturday, surpassing the previous record set in June.

Over the first eight months of the year, China’s surplus with its largest export market has risen nearly 15 percent, adding to tensions in the trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

China’s annual export growth in August moderated slightly to 9.8 percent, the data showed, the weakest rate since March but only slightly below recent trends.

The number missed analysts’ forecasts that shipments from the world’s largest exporter would rise 10.1 percent, slowing only slightly from 12.2 percent in July.

Even with U.S. tariffs targeting $50 billion of Chinese exports in effect for their first full month in August, China’s exports to the United States still accelerated, growing 13.2 percent from a year earlier from 11.2 percent in July.

“There is still an impact from front-loading of exports, but the main reason (for still-solid export growth) is strong growth in the U.S. economy,” said Zhang Yi, an economist at Zhonghai Shengrong Capital Management.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1LO068
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<![CDATA[Trump 'likely' to announce new China tariffs as early as Monday: source]]> http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69044-Trump-likely-to-announce-new-China-tariffs-as-early-as-Monday-source&goto=newpost Mon, 17 Sep 2018 03:03:08 GMT *U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to announce new tariffs on about $200 billion on Chinese imports as early as Monday, a senior administration... U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to announce new tariffs on about $200 billion on Chinese imports as early as Monday, a senior administration official told Reuters on Saturday.

The tariff level will probably be about 10 percent, the Wall Street Journal reported, quoting people familiar with the matter. This is below the 25 percent the administration said it was considering for this possible round of tariffs.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The upcoming tariffs will be on a list of items that included $200 billion worth of internet technology products and other electronics, printed circuit boards and consumer goods including Chinese seafood, furniture and lighting products, tires, chemicals, plastics, bicycles and car seats for babies. It was unclear if the administration will exempt any of the products that were on the list, which was announced in July.

On Friday, White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters said Trump “has been clear that he and his administration will continue to take action to address China’s unfair trade practices. We encourage China to address the long-standing concerns raised by the Unites States.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1LV0OB
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Drop in silver prices to 32-month lows prompts sellout of Silver Eagle coins at U.S. http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69043-Drop-in-silver-prices-to-32-month-lows-prompts-sellout-of-Silver-Eagle-coins-at-U-S&goto=newpost Mon, 17 Sep 2018 02:47:36 GMT *A drop in silver prices this year has attracted investors seeking a bargain, prompting a temporary sellout of the 2018 American Silver Eagle bullion... A drop in silver prices this year has attracted investors seeking a bargain, prompting a temporary sellout of the 2018 American Silver Eagle bullion coins at the U.S. Mint this month.

“The sellout of Silver Eagles implies that demand for physical [silver] has recently been increasing,” says Chris Gaffney, president of World Markets at TIAA Bank. “With Silver Eagles being the most popular bullion coin available, this is a good indicator of physical demand,” he adds, and higher demand “makes sense,” given that prices are nearing multiyear lows again.

Front-month September silver futures SIU8, -0.41% settled at $14.042 an ounce on the Comex Friday, the lowest level since Jan. 15, 2016. The most-active December contract SIZ8, -0.19% settled at $14.142 Friday, with the contract down about 19% year to date.

The mint announced on Sept. 6 that it is producing additional coins to restock its depleted inventory. “The U.S. Mint and the authorized dealer network were caught off guard as bargain-hunting physical buyers returned to the market ahead of $14” an ounce, says Peter Grant, vice president of Chicago-based Zaner Metals. He sees that as a “glimmer of stronger investment demand, but not a big deal in the overall context of the dominant downtrend.”


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr...int-2018-09-14
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Weekly Wrap-Up with Eric Sprott http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69042-Weekly-Wrap-Up-with-Eric-Sprott&goto=newpost Fri, 14 Sep 2018 20:10:27 GMT *Lots to talk about this week: Gold and Silver are both up, and things finally look like they might be turning around after five long months. You... Lots to talk about this week: Gold and Silver are both up, and things finally look like they might be turning around after five long months. You won’t want to miss this value-packed discussion, as Eric stops by to help us break down the latest happenings in the world of precious metals, including:

• Why the dollar is on the verge of breaking down

• Morgan Stanley’s surprising new recommendation

• Plus: Eric answers listener questions

“The whole premise for gold going down, which is this phony premise about the strong dollar and that interest rates are going up, it’s just a narrative that covers for what’s going on in the paper market. It’s just a narrative, OK? The reality is that… we talked last week about India buying 100 tonnes of gold in August. I mean, that was an incredible purchase! … And various central banks have been buyers of gold… It’s like, man, there’s not going to be enough gold around. So, I think we’re looking good.”

http://silverseek.com/commentary/wee...c-sprott-17411
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When The U.S. Stock Market Crashes, Buy Gold http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69041-When-The-U-S-Stock-Market-Crashes-Buy-Gold&goto=newpost Fri, 14 Sep 2018 20:05:03 GMT *While we wait for news on the 25% tariffs on $200bln or 40% of Chinese exports to the U.S.—and with the threat of the same on the remaining ~$300bln... While we wait for news on the 25% tariffs on $200bln or 40% of Chinese exports to the U.S.—and with the threat of the same on the remaining ~$300bln to follow—I want to outline the endgame for the dollar and the likely beginning of the explosive rally for Gold.
Simply put: When the U.S. stock market crashes, buy Gold.

To be more specific: when the S&P 500 has fallen 20-30%, buy Gold, in my opinion, because the ‘Fed Put’ will soon be exercised at that point. The Fed will reverse policy to stimulus on steroids. The dollar rallied from April 2008 and peaked in March 2009, when stocks bottomed out—the same time the Fed announced QE, or QE1 as we now know it. Then the dollar fell. It is not unreasonable to expect the same to happen this time around. Gold bottomed out in October 2008, as stocks plummeted and then soared 280% to greater than 1900 over the next three years, as QE1 and QE2 were underway.





The coming crash in the U.S. stock market is the catalyst for the Fed’s reversal in policy, so why do I expect a crash?
Quantitative Tightening and Budget Deficits

Lee Adler pointed out several weeks ago that as the budget deficit soars, Treasury bond issuance is increasing by around $100bln per month. At the same time, the Fed is increasing its balance sheet reduction, or “QT” program, to $50bln a month in October, a run-rate of $600bln per year. That means $150bln of additional demand for U.S. Treasuries is required every month.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1536954452.php
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