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Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com - SilverSeek.com Articles http://forums.silverseek.com/ Public comments on articles published on SilverSeek.com en Sun, 16 Jun 2019 19:23:02 GMT vBulletin 60 http://forums.silverseek.com/images/misc/rss.png Silver Investor Community Discussion Forums - SilverSeek.com - SilverSeek.com Articles http://forums.silverseek.com/ COT Silver Report - June 7, 2019 http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69572-COT-Silver-Report-June-7-2019&goto=newpost Sat, 08 Jun 2019 07:34:43 GMT *http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot-silver-report-june-7-2019-17666 For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see... http://silverseek.com/commentary/cot...e-7-2019-17666

For anyone not able to see the complete COT report or would prefer to see the combined Gold and Silver COT reports

http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1559935963.php
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Dollar Breaking down Signals Start of Gold Breakout Drive above $1400... http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69571-Dollar-Breaking-down-Signals-Start-of-Gold-Breakout-Drive-above-1400&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 12:22:06 GMT *The Precious Metals sector has broken strongly higher in recent days, with silver breaking out of its downtrend just yesterday, when the fundamental... The Precious Metals sector has broken strongly higher in recent days, with silver breaking out of its downtrend just yesterday, when the fundamental reason for this move emerged – the Fed has let it be known, via the St Louis Fed governor, that they are going to drop rates soon. This is clearly a panic move triggered by the stockmarket breaking down below key support – the intention is to head off a stockmarket crash, but it looks unlikely to succeed because they have much less room to drop rates than they had back in 2008, however, what they are likely to succeed in doing is breaking the dollar down into a severe bearmarket, and a storm is already bearing down on the dollar due to the accelerating global trend to dedollarize which has been given added urgency by the US administration’s overt bullying of enemies and allies alike by means of sanctions, tariffs and in some cases the threat of military action. This is why gold has been rallying, and this time it does not look like it will be a false dawn – instead it appears to be the start of a major breakout drive that will see gold launch out of its gigantic 7-year long base pattern by breaking out above key resistance at the $1400 level, a development that we have been anticipating all this year.

We’ll start by looking at the latest action in the dollar index. On its 6-month chart we can see that it has started to drop away hard after making new highs as recently as a week to 10 days ago. This sharp drop looks like it may be the start of something more serious, and we know why having looked at its 2-year chart some days back.

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Kinesis engages Contis Group to launch UK and European debit card for its digital gol http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69570-Kinesis-engages-Contis-Group-to-launch-UK-and-European-debit-card-for-its-digital-gol&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 12:18:57 GMT *Kinesis engages Contis Group to launch UK and European debit card for its digital gold and silver currencies** London 4th June, 2019: Today,... Kinesis engages Contis Group to launch UK and European debit card for its digital gold and silver currencies

London 4th June, 2019:

Today, Kinesis Money announces the initiation of its UK and EU debit card program with Contis Group, the award-winning platform as a service (PAAS) that provides end-to-end banking and payments solutions. Kinesis has selected Contis for its European and UK debit card solutions and has officially started developments, scheduled for release in Q4.

The release of these EUR and GBP-denominated debit cards will cement Kinesis’ position in the market as a formidable global fintech player. The Kinesis debit card will allow Kinesis’ clients in the UK and Europe to easily and efficiently use their

Kinesis currencies to make purchases anywhere that has a merchant facility, as well as withdraw funds via global ATM networks.
Kinesis is an evolutionary monetary system using the real assets of gold and silver as the basis for digital currencies. These currencies provide a 1:1 allocation of physical bullion, with the transaction fees accumulated whenever the currencies are sent, spent or traded and then proportionately redistributed to Kinesis currency and token holders as a velocity-based yield. These yields grow as the user base grows and recur forever, creating a monthly income for users, against everyday transactions and holdings.

The new debit card is to be powered through a partnership between Kinesis Money and Contis which enables customers to leverage their extensive partner network. Contis Financial Services Ltd is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The Kinesis debit card is set to be integrated into the highly anticipated Kinesis Monetary System, scheduled to launch in Q3 2019, providing seamless spending and management of the Kinesis, blockchain-based, gold and silver-based currencies.

Thomas Coughlin, CEO of Kinesis Money, comments: “It’s a positive step for us, as this partnership with Contis represents an important step in the release of our pioneering Kinesis Monetary System. The global shift towards agile banking is picking up momentum, and Kinesis is setting a precedent in this banking evolution. The new Kinesis Monetary System and associated debit card aims to provide a stable, trustworthy platform based on physical gold and silver currencies that consumers are looking for.”

Flavia Alzetta, CEO of Contis, comments: “Contis is excited to be moving forward with Kinesis Money who have an exciting potential and ambitious plans. As their partner for their card issuing and account, Contis’ highly configurable and reliable platform will enable Kinesis to scale as they grow. We look forward to partnering with them on that journey.”
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US is winning trade war with China...for now http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69569-US-is-winning-trade-war-with-China-for-now&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 12:09:48 GMT *The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as... The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as trade negotiators from either side parry over automobile parts content, intellectual property rights, government subsidies and the like.

Casualties and victories are also borne out over the decks of hulking freighters that carry the commodities which make up the nuts and bolts of international trade.

Indeed, shipping statistics are often sought by economics and traders trying to predict the health of a country’s economy or the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one such leading indicator. Another is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMIs are a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. An economy with a PMI of over 50 is considered to be growing; under 50 means an economy is treading water or possibly drowning.

This article is concerned with the Baltic Dry Index and other shipping statistics - such as cargo volumes through West Coast ports - that we can use to determine who, at this stage, China or the US, is winning the trade war.

The overall conclusion we, at Ahead of the Herd, came up with, is that the United States is winning, in terms of raw economic data, but at a cost to both economies of roughly $165 billion in two-way trade. The losers also include US consumers who are paying more for imported goods, and companies in both countries that can’t afford 25% tariffs for an extended period of time.

Baltic Dry Index

Created by the London-based Baltic Exchange, the Baltic Dry Index is a measure of supply and demand for bulk cargo such as iron ore, lumber, coal, grain, etc. Demand for such bulk-shipped (as opposed to containerized cargo) raw materials is a predictor of future economic growth. For example, a country that is expanding its steel output will order more iron ore and coal, which will increase the demand for shipping these commodities. Therefore, an expanding or contracting BDI is considered to be a leading indicator of industrial production and economic activity.

The BDI is calculated by assessing multiple shipping rates across 20+ routes for each vessel category - Capesize vessels weighing over 100,000 dead weight tonnes (DWT) (these ships cannot go through the Panama Canal); Panamax ships 60,000-80,000 DWT that can go through the Panama Canal; and Supramaxes or Handymaxes, similar in size to a Panamax but with specialized loading/ discharging equipment. Members of the Baltic Exchange contact dry bulk shippers worldwide in order to gather the prices of each raw material included in the index, then calculate an average price for each. The BDI is issued daily.

Those that follow the Baltic Dry Index diligently can glean precious information in which to make investment decisions that few investors are aware of. For example, the BDI is known to have predicted the 2008 recession when the prices of key commodities in the index suddenly dropped.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1559639943.php
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How Foolish We All Are About China And Life http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69568-How-Foolish-We-All-Are-About-China-And-Life&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 12:07:04 GMT *While I will let the “real” analysts debate about how we should handle our trade deal regarding China, I am only here to discuss the sentiment... While I will let the “real” analysts debate about how we should handle our trade deal regarding China, I am only here to discuss the sentiment around the China deal.

This past week, I have seen many posts like this one:


“We wouldn't be down at these relatively low levels had China settled with Trump. Guaranteed.”

The posters’ logic works like this: The market has been dropping ever since the China deal fell apart. So, it is clear that the cause of the drop is the China deal debacle. And I am quite certain that almost all of you think in this exact same way. I mean it so logical, right?

Well, it sounds logical only if you ignore facts that blow this logic out of the water. Consider that the S&P500 rallied 9% in 2018 during the heart of the trade war with China. With each escalation, we saw the markets continue higher and higher. How could that even be possible based upon the “logic” everyone seems to espouse today?

Now, I am quite certain there will be some of you that will try to explain away this clear lack of consistency. And, you would likely be those with the best blinders in the room. But, how can a person who is viewing the market through the lens of intellectual honesty come to such a conclusion?

If the China trade war clearly causes declines in the market, then this would be true all the time. And, the fact that we saw a 9% rally (which, at the time, had many scratching their heads) should make everyone question the basis for such an assumption.

Back in 1940, Ralph Nelson Elliott noted the following about causation for market moves:


The causes of these cyclical changes seem clearly to have their origin in the immutable natural law that governs all things, including the various moods of human behavior. Causes, therefore, tend to become relatively unimportant in the long term progress of the cycle. This fundamental law cannot be subverted or set aside by statutes or restrictions. Current news and political developments are of only incidental importance, soon forgotten; their presumed influence on market trends is not as weighty as is commonly believed.

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Dollar Supply Creates Dollar Demand http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69567-Dollar-Supply-Creates-Dollar-Demand&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 12:04:32 GMT *We have been discussing the impossibility of China nuking the Treasury bond market. We covered a list of challenges China would face. Then last week... We have been discussing the impossibility of China nuking the Treasury bond market. We covered a list of challenges China would face. Then last week we showed that there cannot be such a thing as a bond vigilante in an irredeemable currency. Now we want to explore a different path to the same conclusion that China cannot nuke the Treasury bond market.

To review something we have said many times, the dollar is borrowed. It is not printed. Every time fresh new dollars are created, there is a borrower. There is never a giftee. The borrower has the dollar as an asset—but he also has a matching liability.

Once we understand that the balance sheet has assets and liabilities, it is senseless to talk about the increase in quantity of the asset side without addressing the liabilities. In familiar monetary economics terms, the asset is supply. However, there is a liability too. That liability represents demand. Perpetual demand. Let’s look at this.

Example: a farmer borrows to buy more land. The price of land is high (as we’re in an environment of uber-low interest, and asset prices move inverse to rates). So to buy it, he must incur many dollars of debt. And he needs great revenue to service that debt. This is because the gross revenue does not service debt. Only the net profit can be paid out as interest or principal.

Our farmer would be lucky if a few pennies of each dollar of revenue are free cash flow, net of all expenses. Therefore his demand for dollars of revenue is many multiples of the debt service payment. This demand, let’s not forget, is ongoing for so long as he has the debt.

How many multiples?

By a process of arbitrage, profit margins are brought down to the interest rate (in a free market, i.e. gold standard, interest would be pushed up too). Suppose one could make 10% return on capital in the farming business. If the interest rate is 1%, it’s a great opportunity. Farmers will keep borrowing to expand, until they bring the return down. They won’t push it all the way to the interest rate, but they will go pretty far in that direction.

If the interest rate is 4%, then every borrowed dollar incurs 4 cents of interest every year. If the return on capital is 5%, then every dollar of capital—we’ll assume it’s all debt to keep the math simple—is generating 5 cents of profit. There is not necessarily a simple or linear relationship between return on capital and profit margin. But we can certainly say that as return on capital is pushed down, so is the profit margin.

In this example, 80% of the return on capital goes to debt service (4 out of 5). Only 20% is used to generate profits after interest expense.

Only 20 cents of capital is uses to generate profits after interest expense. To keep the math very simple, suppose the profit margin matched the return on capital. 5%. Then the farmer must generate 80 cents of revenue for every dollar of debt. Or else. Or else what? The lenders will repossess his farm, and he will lose his livelihood not to mention his life savings and likely his multigenerational legacy.

The farmer must do whatever it takes to grow enough wheat to generate these revenues. And all of the other wheat farmers are doing the same.

Their demand for dollars impels them to a relentless urgency. They must dump as much wheat as it takes on the market. This wheat goes onto the bid price, thus pressing it lower.

Farmers must generate nearly as much annual revenue as they have debt (in our example). And the same for all low-margin commodity producers.

And then the interest rate is lowered again (gotta boost GDP, don’tch’know?) And the next marginal farmer borrows to narrow the new gap between interest and return on capital. The farmers (and indeed all capital-intensive businesses) are put on a treadmill, while the Fed keeps turning up the speed.

More importantly, we can see the mechanism by which borrowing dollars creates perpetual demand for dollars. To say it again—it’s that important—debtors must generate, every year, almost as many dollars of revenue as they owe in debt.

And it is perpetual. Debt cannot be extinguished. One debtor may get out of debt. At least in theory. Although our hapless farmer cannot. He can’t outrun that treadmill. But if a business does manage to pay off its debt, it is simply shifting the debt to another party. Without gold in the monetary system, there is no final payment. There is no mechanism to make a debt go out of existence.

Those who look only at the newly-created quantity of dollars are missing the newly-created perpetual liability. And to say money is “printed” explicitly denies the liability. There is no helicopter drop of free money. There is only the deceptively cheap rate to borrow. Deceptive, because it’s hard and getting harder to earn enough to pay the vigorish. Counterintuitively, the lower the prevailing rate the harder it becomes. It would be one thing if you and only you had access to borrow at a special low rate. But that’s not the case. Everyone is borrowing at that low rate, too.

And to make matters worse, let’s tie this into the theme we developed prior to China’s nuclear option. Useless ingredients added by regulators. Every time government forces the farmer (or the miller, the baker, or the grocer) to add useless ingredients, it pushes costs up. But this does not help the farmer catch his breath on the treadmill. Quite the contrary, it is like shoving a burden of useless stuff into his backpack. The farmer’s only relief is the bankruptcy of his competitors, but so long as the interest rate keeps falling there will always be more new competitors.

It is not faith that holds up the value dollar. It is not awaiting one revelation (e.g. Fed audit) away from sudden collapse. Its value is no illusion to be so easily dispelled. Its value comes from the struggles of the debtors. For example, our farmer working harder and harder to produce more wheat. Which he is obliged to sell, at cheaper and cheaper prices.

Most people regard a currency’s value as 1/P (the general price level). Which means every farmer and indeed every debtor is working to increase the value of the dollar, as the Fed works to lower its interest rate.

We went on this seeming diversion, because it is important at this point in our development of the ideas around China and US interest rates, to see that an increase in the quantity of currency will not necessarily cause prices to rise. In a falling rates environment, it will lead to the opposite. As we have seen, in wheat more clearly than in other prices.

So what does this have to do with the price of tea in China (OK, OK, we could not resist so many good opportunities wrapped into one)? Stay tuned for Part IV next week!

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1559635711.php
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GoldSeek Radio: Peter Schiff amd Bob Hoye http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69566-GoldSeek-Radio-Peter-Schiff-amd-Bob-Hoye&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:59:27 GMT *http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2019/05.31.2019/GSR-05.31.19-c.mp3* http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2019...05.31.19-c.mp3 ]]> SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69566-GoldSeek-Radio-Peter-Schiff-amd-Bob-Hoye GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Peter Schiff http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69565-GoldSeek-Radio-Nugget-Peter-Schiff&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:48:42 GMT *https://youtu.be/3lNrxEXIpUI* https://youtu.be/3lNrxEXIpUI ]]> SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69565-GoldSeek-Radio-Nugget-Peter-Schiff The Economy Continues To Deteriorate http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69564-The-Economy-Continues-To-Deteriorate&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:45:20 GMT *Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, was on CNBC today asserting that the economy was expanding at an unprecedented rate. Either Navarro is... Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, was on CNBC today asserting that the economy was expanding at an unprecedented rate. Either Navarro is tragically ignorant or an egregious liar. Either way he looks like an idiot to those us who study the real numbers and understand the truth.

The Global Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) dropped to 50.4 – the lowest since July 2016. It’s been falling almost nonstop since mid-2017. The current period of decline is the longest in the 20-year history of the index. The index includes the purchase of inputs for the manufacturing of consumer goods, investment goods (capex material) and intermediate goods (semi-finished goods used as inputs for final goods).

The pace of decline for auto sales in China, Europe and the U.S. is the fastest in at least three decades excluding the great financial crisis time period. Visible evidence of the contracting global/domestic economy is Ford’s announcement that it’s cutting 10% of salaried (white collar) workforce, about 7,000 jobs, by the end of August.

The trade war is not the cause of U.S. economic weakness. If anything, it’s nothing more than an effort by the Trump Government to manufacture a scapegoat for the inevitably severe economic recession engulfing the system. China’s exports to the U.S. were 5% of its GDP in 1995. By 2005 exports to the U.S. had risen to 9% of China’s GDP. Currently exports to the U.S. represent just 3% of China’s GDP. These numbers show that the trade war between the U.S. and China is not the cause of global economic weakness.

Rather, the cause is the massive misapplication of capital from 10 years of over $21 trillion in money printing and debt issuance. This artificially over-stimulated economic activity. Now that the stimulus has worn off, the major economies – especially the U.S. and China – face the problem of servicing their debt load and the consequences of a decade of misallocated capital.

Bond guru, Jeffrey Gundlach, recently asserted in a webcast that “nominal GDP growth over the past five years would have been negative is U.S. public debt had not increased.” He went on to state that analysts and financial journalists “seem to not understand that the growth in the GDP it looks pretty good on the screen but is really based exclusively on debt – Government debt, also corporate debt and mortgage debt.” I have been saying this for quite some time because it’s pretty obvious to anyone who looks more deeply into the numbers beyond reciting the headline reports.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1559470852.php
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The Trump Trade War Recession? http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69563-The-Trump-Trade-War-Recession&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:42:41 GMT
Hoover, Smoot & Hawley


•Multiplayer Game Theory


•Trade Sandpile


•Victim List


•Lopsided Polls


•The Seven-Body Problem


Publisher’s Note: John Mauldin is recovering from a minor illness. He’ll be back next week. Meanwhile, with trade disputes still roiling markets, below is a still-timely letter he wrote last year. You should definitely read it again. —Ed D’Agostino

“A conservative is someone who stands athwart history, yelling stop, at a time when no one is inclined to do so, or to have much patience with those who so urge it.”
—William F. Buckley, Jr., 1955

I will never compare myself to Bill Buckley, as a writer or anything else. He was one-of-a-kind and a personal hero who I am disappointed to say I never met but who I read a lot. The response to my recent tariff comments gives me a small hint of how it must have felt to “stand athwart history” and launch the modern conservative movement.

Many of you support the tariffs. And I understand your reasons. I really do.

Free trade used to be a core belief of the conservative movement. Hayek, Friedman, Mises, Rothbard, and numerous other economists eloquently explained why. Several liberal economists agree. Conservative politicians spent the last few decades moving us in that direction, albeit imperfectly and with some big mistakes along the way. But few disagreed with the idea.

Let me be clear on this: I do not think the tariffs on China are going to cause a recession. But if we have a recession, that is precisely what the Democrats will say. Democrats will not run against the Fed, investor sentiment, markets, Italy, or anything else that actually causes the next recession. They will be running against Trump and everything will be his fault. It will be the Trump Trade War Recession. Whether or not it is true is immaterial.

That is neither here or there because a trade war with China introduces too many variables into an already difficult situation. Let’s look at what is actually happening on the ground.

http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumW...1559455261.php
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Is Musk Trying To Sell Tesla’s Stock Price Or Automobiles? http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69562-Is-Musk-Trying-To-Sell-Tesla’s-Stock-Price-Or-Automobiles&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:34:16 GMT *TSLA had yet another bad week, closing down $19 (9%) from the previous Friday’s close. Last week every attempted bounce in the stock was shortable... TSLA had yet another bad week, closing down $19 (9%) from the previous Friday’s close. Last week every attempted bounce in the stock was shortable on a daytrading basis. Currently Tesla’s shares are trading at $188. It would likely be a lot lower if it weren’t for Musk’s repeated “leaked” emails loaded with dubious production and delivery claims, with both barrels pointed directly at short-sellers.

A second “leaked” email appeared on Wednesday, as the stock was getting ready to take another deep plunge, in which Musk asserts that the employees need to “catch up on deliveries” in order to have a “successful quarter.” Speaking of catching up on deliveries, whatever happened with the 10,000 vehicles that Musk claimed were “in transit” at the end of Q1…? This analysis posted by @boriqato is a priceless “de-coding” of the Musk emails.

In between Musk released a report that he was gearing up to start producing the chimerical Model Y in the Fremont facility, in addition to consolidating the production of the S and X onto one production line. Nothwithstanding the complications involved with reconfiguring the factor floor to produce 2 models on one line, hidden behind the concept is that fact that the move would be cutting in half the production rate of each model. Why would he do this if he’s running behind on deliveries?

Curiously absent from the news release was any estimates of the cost to retool the factory, purchase the equipment required to produce the Model Y and the manner in which the expense – which is enormous – would be funded. Given that there’s currently 20 lawsuitsoutstanding filed by vendors and service providers against Tesla seeking several million dollars in claims against unpaid invoices for services provided, it would appear that the Company is cash-strapped despite the recent capital raise. (Note: I sifted through several of the filings – many are honest mom and pop businesses trying to make a living – it’s quite sad that Musk feels entitled to stiff the businesses which are helping him proliferate his fraud)

Regardless of the veracity of the production numbers in the “leaked” emails to employees, the new order and Q2 delivery assertions are likely Musk’s standard fraudulent misrepresentations. In fact, on Saturday I saw a report from one of the analysts who posts his research on Twitter (@fly4dat). The data he tracks for Model 3 deliveries in Norway, Netherlands and Spain – three of Tesla’s largest European markets – show a stunning decline in deliveries (the data comes from official sources which track VIN registrations).

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1559240322.php
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This Article Is Not For The Closed-Minded Investor http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69561-This-Article-Is-Not-For-The-Closed-Minded-Investor&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:31:50 GMT *I have now been writing for Seeking Alpha for approximately 6 years. And, I can honestly say that not much has changed in the readership base. Yes,... I have now been writing for Seeking Alpha for approximately 6 years. And, I can honestly say that not much has changed in the readership base. Yes, that means you.

You see, the same folks that have commented on my articles that Elliott Wave analysis is akin to voodoo are still making the exact same comments they made years ago.

Do you think that the accuracy of our underlying analysis would open their eyes? Nope. They have one way of thinking, and have not changed in years. Moreover, when some of these commenters offer an opinion about a specific methodology, do you think they have the in-depth knowledge or understanding of that methodology in order to provide a reasonable and informed opinion? Again – nope!

When someone comments negatively about Elliott Wave analysis, my first challenge to them is to enquire about how deep their knowledge of Elliott Wave runs. And, the significant amount of time they offer no answer, which means it is likely as deep as a cereal bowl (and I am still probably giving them too much credit). For this reason, I was asked by the editors at Seeking Alpha to write the following six-part series about market sentiment and Elliott Wave analysis to pull back the curtain to explain our methodology:
•This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 1
•This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 2
•This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 3
•This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 4
•This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 5
•This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 6

This leads me to a question for all of you who choose to comment on articles: Are you here to learn and expand your thinking and understanding of markets, or are you here simply for confirmation bias?

While my analysis will not always be correct, as that would simply be an impossible level to achieve, our members and followers have clearly recognized that we are right a heck of a lot more than we are wrong. That is why within the last seven years we have almost 5000 total members in our services (with over 500 money manager clients), and over 39,000 followers on Seeking Alpha alone. Moreover, our Fibonacci Pinball methodology, which I personally developed years ago, provides for a much more objective framework around the traditional Elliott Wave analysis, which allows us to, rather quickly, identify when the market is not moving within our primary expectation and appropriately adjust. In fact, our members have told us it is the most powerful tool they have used for correct market direction analysis. Yet, one has to understand that the market is non-linear, and understand how to apply a non-linear methodology within market analysis.

This brings me to my final point. Back in 2015, we were quite bullish, until the market reached the 2100 region. We then turned somewhat bearish, expecting the market to drop down to the 1750-1800 region, to be followed by what we termed a “global melt-up” to complete the 3rd wave off the 2009 lows. Our minimum target was in the 2600SPX region for that rally from 1800, and we pounded the table during the fall of 2016 that it did not matter who was elected, as our target and expectation remained the same.

As we now know, the market followed through quite well on our expectations. And, while many of you will come up with “reasons” for what occurred, we did not care about reasons in the same way we did not care about the election results.

If you understand what Alan Greenspan and Bernard Baruch knew quite well, you would understand how simple the market really is at its core. During his tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan testified many times before various committees of Congress. In front of the Joint Economic Committee, Greenspan noted that markets are driven by “human psychology” and “waves of optimism and pessimism.”

To further expound upon Mr. Greenspan’s understanding of the markets, allow me to present a few more of his quotes:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1559216701.php
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DOUBLE WHAMMY: Fed Policy and the U.S.-China Trade War http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69560-DOUBLE-WHAMMY-Fed-Policy-and-the-U-S-China-Trade-War&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:27:37 GMT *Markets were decisively in “risk-off” mode last week. Following weak manufacturing news last Thursday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury sunk to its... Markets were decisively in “risk-off” mode last week. Following weak manufacturing news last Thursday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury sunk to its lowest level since October 2017. The spread between the 10-year yield and three-month yield, in fact, inverted once again, with the shorter-term bond yield higher by 6 basis points. As such, the “boring” yet mostly reliable utilities sector rotated to the top.

I’m not going to use the R-word here. All I’m going to say is that it might be time for investors to brace for a significant correction—especially with debt at record levels and the Federal Reserve left with very little firepower to combat a full-blown crisis.

Let’s take a look at what the smart money is doing.

Many successful, ultra high-net-wealth individuals (UHNWIs) favor municipal bonds, not only because they’re tax-free at the federal and often state and local levels, but also because they’ve managed to perform well even during equity bear markets. According to the first-quarter asset allocation report for Tiger 21, a peer-to-peer network for UHNWIs, members had an average weighting of 9 percent in fixed income, which includes muni bonds.

The U.S. economy looks rock-solid with a strong jobs market, but there are some worrisome signs lurking under the surface.

Could U.S. Manufacturers Contract in 2019?

Case in point: May’s “flash” index of U.S. manufacturers registered a sharp decline to 50.6, down from 52.6 in April. This is only a preliminary reading, but if it turns out to be accurate—we’ll know early next month—it would mark the slowest growth in the domestic manufacturing industry since September 2009, according to IHS Markit. Then again, it could fall below 50.0, which would indicate contraction

http://news.goldseek.com/USFunds/1559153593.php
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<![CDATA[GoldSeek Radio: Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, Professor Alexander Kosovichev & Robert]]> http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69559-GoldSeek-Radio-Professor-Laurence-Kotlikoff-Professor-Alexander-Kosovichev-amp-Robert&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:18:50 GMT *http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2019/05.24.2019/GSR-05.24.19-c.mp3* http://radio.goldseek.com/shows/2019...05.24.19-c.mp3 ]]> SilverSeek.com Articles valerb http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69559-GoldSeek-Radio-Professor-Laurence-Kotlikoff-Professor-Alexander-Kosovichev-amp-Robert <![CDATA[Why Debt Won't Spark Inflation]]> http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?69558-Why-Debt-Won-t-Spark-Inflation&goto=newpost Tue, 04 Jun 2019 11:14:41 GMT * Missing Inflation •Debt Rubicon •Velocity Falling
Missing Inflation


•Debt Rubicon


•Velocity Falling


•The Complex Debt and Currency Dance


•“Too High and Getting Wider”


•They Shall Not Grow Old


Modern technology was supposed to make travel less necessary. We can meet by phone, video, and now in virtual reality. But we’re still traveling more than ever. I certainly am.

The reason is simple: Technology can’t yet replace face-to-face conversation, and especially group conversations. It is genetically hardwired in our species. We spend more time on the phone and Skype than ever but technology also makes information more complex and nuanced. Conveying it often requires a personal presence, so we fly around and talk in person.

I thought of that last week at the Strategic Investment Conference. I’ve been writing about “Japanification” of the developed world economy, explaining what I mean by that as best I can in these letters. But in talking to conference attendees, I found that I have not effectively communicated some of the nuances.

To be clear, I don’t want Japanification, nor do I think it will deliver the desired results. I believe that in the next recession…
•Policymakers will respond with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, and
•Instead of producing growth, it will depress growth and leave us all in the same morass Japan has endured for almost three decades.

In other words, I believe that both government and central banks will tryJapanification (of course under other names) but I don’t expect it to work in the way they would hope.

When faced with the imminent possibility of recession, depression, or even a crash, authorities will try to do something but they will have very few choices. The “default” option of ever larger stimulus will kick in. So, like Japan, the US will see yet more quantitative easing and extraordinarily low interest rates, along with annual federal deficits of $2 trillion and higher. Alternatives like restructuring the tax code and balancing the budget will be nowhere in sight.

http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumW...1558944183.php
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