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View Full Version : Caution!! Silver is a commodity. Commodities are falling



Irishfan1
29th January 2010, 19:21
After closely watching the action in the markets, and gold and silver, I must tell you all an important observation.

1) Manipulated or not, silver is a commodity.
2) There is a correction going on now in commodity prices and the stock market.
3) There is a dollar rally going on and it will last for the duration of the correction.
4) Dont get run over by the train coming diwn the tracks, logic must be thrown out the window. Market pyscology must be heeded.
5) Go long the dollar until this correction runs its course. Then get back in on silver. I see March being a good time which happens to be when the CFTC will have metals hearing on the manipulative shorts.

Good stacking and trading!

Sakata
29th January 2010, 19:26
After closely watching the action in the markets, and gold and silver, I must tell you all an important observation.

1) Manipulated or not, silver is a commodity.
2) There is a correction going on now in commodity prices and the stock market.
3) There is a dollar rally going on and it will last for the duration of the correction.
4) Dont get run over by the train coming diwn the tracks, logic must be thrown out the window. Market pyscology must be heeded.
5) Go long the dollar until this correction runs its course. Then get back in on silver. I see March being a good time which happens to be when the CFTC will have metals hearing on the manipulative shorts.

Good stacking and trading!

What is your point? Item 5 sounds like you are you proposing paper contracts in a paper commodity. Ain't paper a wonderful invention?

What is Truth?
29th January 2010, 20:16
After closely watching the action in the markets, and gold and silver, I must tell you all an important observation.

1) Manipulated or not, silver is a commodity.
2) There is a correction going on now in commodity prices and the stock market.
3) There is a dollar rally going on and it will last for the duration of the correction.
4) Dont get run over by the train coming diwn the tracks, logic must be thrown out the window. Market pyscology must be heeded.
5) Go long the dollar until this correction runs its course. Then get back in on silver. I see March being a good time which happens to be when the CFTC will have metals hearing on the manipulative shorts.

Good stacking and trading!

You could do all of that or as the new guys said on another thread, put your physical silver away for a while and forget about it. At least that way if you are wrong about 1-3 you won't be stuck holding an empty silver bag as silver moves towards $20 again.

Katwoman
29th January 2010, 21:05
Nonsense silver and gold have been following the dollar for months which means they are both monetized. Silver will never behave like a commodity again because the dollar is finished. When people have a chance to digest the BS disseminated this week they will buy more silver. Even Bottom Line magazine has a front page article saying silver is going to go up.

Buy the dip while you can.:D

NotAnOricle
29th January 2010, 21:54
After closely watching the action in the markets, and gold and silver, I must tell you all an important observation.

1) Manipulated or not, silver is a commodity.
2) There is a correction going on now in commodity prices and the stock market.
3) There is a dollar rally going on and it will last for the duration of the correction.
4) Dont get run over by the train coming diwn the tracks, logic must be thrown out the window. Market pyscology must be heeded.
5) Go long the dollar until this correction runs its course. Then get back in on silver. I see March being a good time which happens to be when the CFTC will have metals hearing on the manipulative shorts.

Good stacking and trading!

Uhm, Okay?

Cup-of-Ruin
30th January 2010, 00:48
After closely watching the action in the markets, and gold and silver, I must tell you all an important observation.

1) Manipulated or not, silver is a commodity.
2) There is a correction going on now in commodity prices and the stock market.
3) There is a dollar rally going on and it will last for the duration of the correction.
4) Dont get run over by the train coming diwn the tracks, logic must be thrown out the window. Market pyscology must be heeded.
5) Go long the dollar until this correction runs its course. Then get back in on silver. I see March being a good time which happens to be when the CFTC will have metals hearing on the manipulative shorts.

Good stacking and trading!

There's some good advice; 'logic must be thrown out the window', and here's me thinking logically when what I really need to do, is throw it away, why be reasonable? Why apply correct governing principals? Why be informed and act in a rational manner, just be irrational, blind and morbidly stupid and act completely illogically, just be unreasonable, most people are stupid and unreasonable, so its a popular movement and we all know that the general populace controls the 'market' with its 'psychology, if most are wrong how can anybody be right....right!

Silver is a commodity, and it is also money and a store of wealth and its been that way for 5000 years and no shylock liitle brat banker or common brown nosed bureaucrat can change that, they are "but vapour that appearth for a little time and then vanisheth away".....

So you go 'long the dollar' and jump through hoops and I will accumulate silver and gold with those same paper dollars.

ccjoe
30th January 2010, 03:54
Still waiting for maybe 80/dollar-----15.50 ag then jumping with 1 or 2 full contracts.

DaleFromCalgary
30th January 2010, 09:02
"Go long the dollar until this correction runs its course. Then get back in on silver. I see March being a good time which happens to be when the CFTC will have metals hearing on the manipulative shorts."

The bullion market is such a tiny percentage of the financial markets that I don't see the CFTC hearings having any serious effect. It is the action in Treasuries and exchange rates that will determine the US$, which in turn will affect silver and commodities.

Now is the time to get into silver, since the time to buy anything is on the dips, not on the rise. Then hold on the rise. As much as I would like to trade the ratio, it hasn't changed enough over the past few years to justify the trouble. When the GSR goes down to 40 or 30, then I'll trade it into gold. I don't expect to see it down to 15 or 20 anytime this decade.

silverheartbone
30th January 2010, 09:16
Now is the time to get into silver, since the time to buy anything is on the dips, not on the rise. Then hold on the rise. As much as I would like to trade the ratio, it hasn't changed enough over the past few years to justify the trouble. When the GSR goes down to 40 or 30, then I'll trade it into gold. I don't expect to see it down to 15 or 20 anytime this decade.

I also do not plan to sell silver for cash.
My plan is to trade the ratio into gold.
However I won't start until the ratio goes below 20,
which I am confident it will before 2020.

silverheartbone
30th January 2010, 09:34
Ask yourself these questions: (http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1125522079.php)

1. Will silver become a rare item in the future? My answer is yes.
2. Is silver rarer than gold now? The answer is yes.
3. Are the silver prices controlled? My answer is yes.
4. Are only a few people aware of the silver story? Yes

When most of the people in the world answer yes to these questions and recognize the true rarity of silver, and then want to own it, the price will be in the hundreds of dollars.
______________________________

However, others disagree..
______________________________

Conclusion (http://seekingalpha.com/article/11003-the-real-silver-deficit-slv)
Clearly, silver is not more rare than gold, but a 1 to 5.78 rarity ratio is indicative of the incredible leverage to be found in all silver related investments since the current ratio stands at roughly 1 to 54 (now 1 to 61). Will it ever reach the Ďmagicalí 1 to 5 ratio insisted upon by Bunker Hunt over 30 years ago? That remains to be seen. But at least now we know for certain that such an idea isnít nearly as far-fetched as it might have otherwise seemed.
______________________________

The truth is somewhere in between these two positions.

There's exactly the same amount of both gold and silver. ;)

red snapper
30th January 2010, 11:13
I bought into silver with BullionVault at US$19.47 per ounce.

It dropped to US$17.01, I started worrying when I read the doomsayer posts here, cashed in, but held the money with BV.

I re-invested that held money, and bought back in yesterday at US$16.20, and picked up some ounces on the way back in. Not much, but something.

I believe that silver does have a bright future, and is a way of keeping up with inflation at least.

That money will ride out whatever happens, and as long as Bullion Vault keep trading, I'm looking at this as long term.

Oh, and I'm going to place another order for some physical this week.

I've got a set amount of money I'm going to invest in silver, and when that's reached, I'll put it away, stop worrying about the fluctuations, and check in every now and again to see how it's doing.

It's as good as anything else to throw your money at these days..

Sakata
30th January 2010, 11:16
... as long as Bullion Vault keep trading, I'm looking at this as long term.


Therein lies the dilemma. Store it yourself someone and you don't need to worry. If you have a lot of it store it in multiple locations.

slvr
30th January 2010, 11:56
After closely watching the action in the markets, and gold and silver, I must tell you all an important observation.

1) Manipulated or not, silver is a commodity.
2) There is a correction going on now in commodity prices and the stock market.
3) There is a dollar rally going on and it will last for the duration of the correction.
4) Dont get run over by the train coming diwn the tracks, logic must be thrown out the window. Market pyscology must be heeded.
5) Go long the dollar until this correction runs its course. Then get back in on silver. I see March being a good time which happens to be when the CFTC will have metals hearing on the manipulative shorts.

Good stacking and trading!
With all due respect... . you are talking to the wrong people. For the most part, we are not traders.. we are fundamentalists.

charlie_dont_surf
30th January 2010, 12:04
After closely watching the action in the markets, and gold and silver, I must tell you all an important observation.

1) Manipulated or not, silver is a commodity.
2) There is a correction going on now in commodity prices and the stock market.
3) There is a dollar rally going on and it will last for the duration of the correction.
4) Dont get run over by the train coming diwn the tracks, logic must be thrown out the window. Market pyscology must be heeded.
5) Go long the dollar until this correction runs its course. Then get back in on silver. I see March being a good time which happens to be when the CFTC will have metals hearing on the manipulative shorts.

Good stacking and trading!




The herd follows market psychology by chasing price with large money, then liquidates at a loss when it goes against them. The winners logically buy small in stages when stuff is on sale. The market psychologists who think they they can game the market are who are laying across the tracks waiting for the train.

Small long USD positions via forex or futures will smooth out silver volatility. But they must be tiny compared to your silver holdings. To buy now when USD has jumped from 74 to 79 is crazy. That is price chasing. Now is the time to be taking profits on long USD bought as it dropped from 88 to 74. Thats free money to buy more silver.

maplesilverbug
30th January 2010, 13:10
I believe that silver does have a bright future, and is a way of keeping up with inflation at least.

KEEPING UP WITH INFLATION:

Silver:
Average 5-Year Return = 43% (7.41% annual yield)
Negative Returns: 28/77 periods (36%)

Average 20-Year Return = 170% (5.09% annual yield)
Negative Returns: 16/77 periods (21%)

Gold:
Average 20-Year Return = 195% (5.56% annual yield)
Negative Returns: 5/77 periods (6.5%)

[note: 90% of the negative return periods happened if you bought during high inflation rates and sold during low inflation rates; the other 10% was called the Great Depression.]

GOLD, held for 20+ years is a much, much better inflation fighter than silver. But, it seems as though either metal would serve you well if you buy during periods of low inflation (ie. now).

According to the "official" sources, inflation rate for 2009 was -0.7% (3.8% in 2008). Just imagine what the purchasing power of your silver will be if that yearly inflation rate QUADRUPLES to 2.8%!

Let's do some comparing (cuz I'm a nurd):

2008
Inflation rate: 3.8%
Av. Silver Spot: $15/oz

2009
Inflation rate: -0.7%
Av. Silver Spot: $14.70/oz

Summary:
Your $1 gained 4.5%.
Your silver lost 2%.

Again, 90% of negative return periods happened if you bought during high inflation rates and sold during low inflation rates (eg. buy 2008, sell 2009).

Inflation rates are not low, they are NEGATIVE!
LOAD THE FCUK UP!!!
(although mostly on gold, then some silver)

maplesilverbug
30th January 2010, 13:19
Still waiting for maybe 80/dollar-----15.50 ag then jumping with 1 or 2 full contracts.

He's making it waaaaay too easy for me!

Jake
30th January 2010, 20:18
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Paul
30th January 2010, 20:33
I trust silver a hell of a lot more than I trust paper money. That may seem naive but I cannot remember a time when silver was worthless. I can remember times when fiat was worthless (ok I read it in them there history books).

I don't plan on selling tomorrow. I just want to put a few quid in something I have a vague chance of retaining my money in. Silver is my choice.

Unless I sell and lose money, nobody has the right to tell me I made a bad decision.

Irishfan1
30th January 2010, 21:10
My point is that short term silver is going down right now and I think it will be another 5-10 weeks b4 it bottoms.

My point about the market being illogical is that back when silver was $21 an oz it was just as rare as when it crashed to 9$ an oz 14 months ago. Was it logical for silver to crash then? Is it logical for silver to be dropping now?

Long term I am a silver bull, but wouldnt you rather buy more when its done falling than buy at the top
Dont try to catch a falling knife, thats a great saying for buying any falling asset. Im not selling my phsical silver now either but I did sell any silver mining stocks I had I will buy them back at the bottom. I am just predicting that with the market conditions it will be a while before it bottoms. If I was in the SLV paper silver fund I would have sold and waited to buy back in when it bottoms.
You guys are way to quick to be critical of anything other than " Silver will go up forever in a straight line." It doesnt work that way.

Ardent Listener
30th January 2010, 21:29
My point is that short term silver is going down right now and I think it will be another 5-10 weeks b4 it bottoms.

My point about the market being illogical is that back when silver was $21 an oz it was just as rare as when it crashed to 9$ an oz 14 months ago. Was it logical for silver to crash then? Is it logical for silver to be dropping now?

Long term I am a silver bull, but wouldnt you rather buy more when its done falling than buy at the top
Dont try to catch a falling knife, thats a great saying for buying any falling asset. Im not selling my phsical silver now either but I did sell any silver mining stocks I had I will buy them back at the bottom. I am just predicting that with the market conditions it will be a while before it bottoms. If I was in the SLV paper silver fund I would have sold and waited to buy back in when it bottoms.
You guys are way to quick to be critical of anything other than " Silver will go up forever in a straight line." It doesnt work that way.

I agree that we may be blessed to have more silver buying opportunities at dirt cheap prices ahead of us for a while. Where the bottom is I don't know. This quickly falling market has many of us shaken and perhaps a little jumpy. But we should all remember that we are Silver Barrons united together and I expect someday soon we won't regret buying some more cheap silver.

argent_pur
30th January 2010, 23:22
Short-sighted trader mentality: "Silver's dropping like a rock, guess it wasn't such a good idea after all--better sell now and limit my losses."

Long-term investor mentality: "Silver's dropping like a rock--oh boy, oh boy, oh boy a buying opportunity!"

When I saw the price go from 18.35 to 16.25 in a matter of days my heart leaped from my chest and immediately bought more.

AgShaman
30th January 2010, 23:33
Nice work Argent Pur.

I hope you stashed it away before goin dwntwn partying and winding up at "Burritos Bigger Than Your Head" eaten mexican for breakfast and doin any silver show and tell sessions?

Curiosity will not kill the C/Kats of SS Nation!

Cup-of-Ruin
31st January 2010, 05:28
My point is that short term silver is going down right now and I think it will be another 5-10 weeks b4 it bottoms.

My point about the market being illogical is that back when silver was $21 an oz it was just as rare as when it crashed to 9$ an oz 14 months ago. Was it logical for silver to crash then? Is it logical for silver to be dropping now?

Long term I am a silver bull, but wouldnt you rather buy more when its done falling than buy at the top
Dont try to catch a falling knife, thats a great saying for buying any falling asset. Im not selling my phsical silver now either but I did sell any silver mining stocks I had I will buy them back at the bottom. I am just predicting that with the market conditions it will be a while before it bottoms. If I was in the SLV paper silver fund I would have sold and waited to buy back in when it bottoms.
You guys are way to quick to be critical of anything other than " Silver will go up forever in a straight line." It doesnt work that way.

When silver dropped to 9 Yankee doodles $, The AUS $ halved, like in one week, it just got cut in half some other currencies just went to virtually zero, silver was more expensive @ $9 Yankee + 15-20% premium due to people loading up with their yankee doodles = 21 AUS $, more expensive then in other currencies than it is now at $16!!!

Helloooooooooo, is there anybody in thereeeeee, just nod if you can hear meeeeee, is there anybody home?????

paper_no_more
31st January 2010, 05:30
I bought into silver with BullionVault at US$19.47 per ounce.

..

I registered there but only have the option for gold trading. How do you trade silver with BullionVault, do you have any links showing they offer silver trading?

DaleFromCalgary
31st January 2010, 09:02
"When silver dropped to 9 Yankee doodles $, The AUS $ halved, like in one week, it just got cut in half some other currencies just went to virtually zero, silver was more expensive @ $9 Yankee + 15-20% premium due to people loading up with their yankee doodles = 21 AUS $, more expensive then in other currencies than it is now at $16!!!"

This does make a difference for buying gold and silver over the counter in Canada, as the price tends to vary more slowly. The exchange rate favours the loonie when commodities go up, so the price increases little or none. When both go down, the loonie doesn't drop as fast. OTC gold in Calgary has slowly crept down to C$1,217, and silver is just above $20.

red snapper
31st January 2010, 09:57
I registered there but only have the option for gold trading. How do you trade silver with BullionVault, do you have any links showing they offer silver trading?

Ahh, once you log in, and you look at the markets page, there's the option of getting silver prices.

If it isn't there, e-mail them and ask them you'd like to buy. They'll sort you out ASAP!