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View Full Version : Goals for this week 01/25/2010



MasterQ
25th January 2010, 08:03
First I would like to recap last weeks amazing breakdown, unpredicted, unexpected, and certainly unwarranted.

We had a very nice and steady movement up towards the 19's. The 9 day was holding as solid support with the 18 day and 45 day averages coming in to bring some reassurance. These averages are reflective of many days of movement, demonstrating momentum of the market with the news it had and was looking to have.

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/nweek.jpg

Momentum is great when you can find and understand the reasons behind it. Averages will usually help to paint the picture of your thoughts as you hear about such economic events and other tied in factors like the dollar index movement and oil. I am usually looking at the dollar and oil to gauge whether we are indeed tied to their movements or are being influenced to help back the momentum I am seeing in PM's.

Though we were overbought, according to the sto's, we were embedded as well which is usually indicative of a market on the verge of continuing breakouts or increased volatility. Unfortunately with the news out of china, and the debatable influence of "Brown" winning the seat which had been occupied by a dem for more than 50 years seemed to put some cold wind into the PM's britches.

To say that silver in particular was long overdue for a correction just wouldn't make sense, especially this time of year. In looking back at historical charts, we have received breaks in the silver market mid-January but you have usually been fine if you sweated it out past the 15th.

These cycles since March of last year has made it very tough for the PM's. A lot of the movements I thought we were preparing to have were late about 30 days. Fewer were actually ahead about 30 days. This is also why using TA strictly will not make a great trader and I know I seem heavily in bed with it. Of the many things I have learned during such times is TA will come back into light but if you make a seemingly bad call and the fundamentals say otherwise then you will be sweating it out.

Now back to the chart above.

My favorite averages are now in a downturn. The market has corrected an overbought situation very early and probably over done. This is bringing the 9 day to want to cross the 18 day on the down side. It is noteworthy to mention the recent two times we had this was last week of October 2009 for about 9.5% and December 2009 for about 13.9%. October's lasted about a week and December's was pretty much all month long.

I will continue to say this is just too early in the year for a breakdown completely to scotia's 13. We are narrowing the time channel historically, giving us about 5 weeks to recover this cut.

Here are the goals we need to hurdle on the way back up and they are still tightly nitted.

The 9 day is looking in the 18.30's.
The 18 day is looking right at 18.
The 45 day is close by with 17.90's.
The average I thought would be the last line of defense is the 100 day which is sitting at 17.42.

Thankfully we haven't tried to test the 200 day which almost would guarantee the breakdown for the first 1/2 of this year at 15.85. In fact Ira mentions that if we closed below 16.50's we could head to the 14's but that is strictly TA speaking. Once again fundamentally, even in the short term, early in this year, it just wouldn't make sense. Where would this money be going? Would it be on the sidelines? Would it be in the stock market? Investors are constantly putting it somewhere and it is this momentum that is the hardest to gauge.

I would love for us to see silver pick it self up from this beating and get back above the 100 day first. This week we need to see us close above the 17.40 area. Once this happens we can close back in on my favorite averages and close negative gap. Once this gap is closed, and it will probably more than likely happen with us getting some closing averages back above the 18.10's then we can take another shot at the 19's.

With the time we have left the goals for this run are starting to come down just for the first 1/2 of this year. We may just hit 20 before the end of February and get those who bought high some light profits before breaking down in March. I personally will be putting in stops the moment I'm about $1000 in profit. It would be better to break even on a learned high purchase than to have to sweat out 4-5 months of negative chart action.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

Argentum
25th January 2010, 11:31
From 1/22/10 report

Thursday was another huge day as far as volume went in both metals. Gold open interest only fell 2,424 contracts... but, as I mentioned yesterday, the bullion banks are really careful about covering their tracks, and it's a good bet that there was more liquidation than meets the eye. Gold volume was way up there again... 327,311 contracts. Silver open interest actually rose... up 721 contracts. Considering the drop in price, I'd say it was the bullion banks going long as the tech funds sold... and proof of that won't be known until next week's COT report. Total silver volume on Thursday was pretty big at 56,203 contracts.

Yesterday's Commitment of Traders report [for the week ending Tuesday, January 19th showed virtually no change in silver's open interest. The bullion banks are net short 308.5 million ounces of silver... virtually every ounce of it by the '4 or less' traders... of which the lion's share is held by JPMorgan.

In gold, the bullion banks reduced their net short position by 8,841 contracts. The bullion banks are now net short 27.4 million ounces of gold... still preposterously high. The decline in their net short positions was not a large amount, but it's how they did it that's worth mentioning. They only covered 95 of their short positions... but they went long the other 8,746 contracts. As I've mentioned the bullion banks can hide what they're doing by going long instead of covering their shorts. This gives a false reading of the daily changes in open interest... and that's exactly what they did during the week that was... and I'll bet that's exactly what they're doing now. The link to this week's COT report is here (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxlf.htm).

Not one contract of either gold or silver that got sold in this week's price decline is in the COT report that was issued yesterday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. Don't forget that the bullion banks pulled the plug on Tuesday evening... about 3 hours after the cut-off for this Friday's COT report... so the entire decline in open interest won't show up until next Friday's report. This was a deliberate act by the bullion banks, as I've seen this scheme many times over the years. In a court of law, the judge [in handing down the appropriate jail sentences] would call it by its legal name... collusion!

silverheartbone
25th January 2010, 18:38
First I would like to recap last weeks amazing breakdown, unpredicted, unexpected, and certainly unwarranted.

{snip}

This is also why using TA strictly will not make a great trader and I know I seem heavily in bed with it. Of the many things I have learned during such times is TA will come back into light but if you make a seemingly bad call and the fundamentals say otherwise then you will be sweating it out.

{snip}

Good luck to us all! -Q

Dude, I thought you were MasterQ.

Anyhow -Q,

1) You can't use TA to predict the spot price because SILVER ain't a stock.

2) You can't perform any analysis of FUNDAMENTALS because of the financial culture created by the central banksters.

Jake
25th January 2010, 18:46
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