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View Full Version : I have said it before and I will say it again



Katwoman
22nd January 2010, 12:20
You cannot call a short term market trend more than 4 hours in advance no matter how good you think you are at TA.

The long-term fundamentals remain bullish.

Pay attention to gold if really you want to know what silver will be doing next.

Silver is more volatile than gold.

As the price of silver goes up the volatility will increase too.

Buy the dips

Argentum
22nd January 2010, 12:21
I'll also say it again.

I picked up some silver this late morning. Not going to time this dip. And I hope you all know me by now that I don't buy in oz's.

Say what you will for the day, the long term is my play.

Katwoman
22nd January 2010, 12:24
Was that you that caused the bounce off the bottom?:cool:

MasterQ
22nd January 2010, 12:33
Was that you that caused the bounce off the bottom?:cool:

GO GO ARGENTUM POWA!

BOUNCE BABY BOUNCE!!

hehe....good stuff.

Good to keep the spirits up!

-Q

Jake
22nd January 2010, 14:56
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Katwoman
22nd January 2010, 15:16
Good for you Jake but I am not that good. We all may be able to predict where the market will go in the long-term reasonably well based on the fundamentals but as a New Englander I have no more confidence in short-term TA that is more than 4 hours old than I do in a weather forecast of the same age.

Jake
22nd January 2010, 15:25
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Katwoman
22nd January 2010, 15:59
For the purposes of clarifying my post:

I posted that to illustrate that I guessed.
It wasn't a "Call". But after the fact, I could have attempted to show that I was "calling" the market when I was really just throwing a guess out there.

My point was that this is what humans do, they tend to remember only the events that would make them look like they were right and/or felt good about what they did. Even though it was just a guess, it can be construed as some "prediction".

I agree which is why I say a forecast more than 4 hours old is just a guess. I can tell you today when it will be winter, spring, summer, and fall next year with reasonable accuracy but I cannot tell you on what days it will rain, snow or be sunny. On the contrary I can by knowing what is going on to my west (or in the case of TA to my east) give you a reasonable prediction of the what the weather will be where I am in about 4 hours.

That is my point and this is why I am more accurate with my short-term TA than most others but of course as you will note by the times of many of my posts it also requires that I be monitoring the market constantly and be awake in the middle of night.......which is why I have for the most part stopped doing short term TA.

Jake
22nd January 2010, 16:07
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Katwoman
22nd January 2010, 16:10
Are you a Metals Trader Kat?
I thought you were some kind of a doctor.

Just a bad habit:p

Ag47
22nd January 2010, 16:18
I must say, it's amusing to read all these posts about "I called this and I called that"

Who says you can't "call" the silver market more than 4 hours in advance.
I called it 3 days ago...HAHAHA.

http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?t=9830&page=2
where I said: "I can say...Silver is going to 17 in 3 days."

Anyone can be a guru...it just takes practice.

Do you know when it will go back up??

Jake
22nd January 2010, 16:33
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Ag47
22nd January 2010, 16:45
You're joking right?

You called it last time.. haha so I thought you'd know this time. I bought over 100 oz before the dip... I'm pretty disappointed. I should have waited...

Jake
22nd January 2010, 17:05
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DaleFromCalgary
22nd January 2010, 17:14
"trying to time markets is not the answer."

There is an old saying that it is not timing the market that matters, it is the time you are in the market that matters. Those who bought silver at $8 or gold at $600 need not worry about the market today.

As always, buy on the dips and hold on the rises.

Mighty Moose
22nd January 2010, 20:14
"trying to time markets is not the answer."

There is an old saying that it is not timing the market that matters, it is the time you are in the market that matters. Those who bought silver at $8 or gold at $600 need not worry about the market today.

As always, buy on the dips and hold on the rises.

I don't know about you, Dale, but sometimes I sure get frustrated that we can't enjoy those dips as often, here, in Canada. And when they do happen, there not nearly as deep. I guess that's the curse of having a currency perceived as being linked to commodities.

On this latest dip (or nosedive), for every $3 US that gold fell, I think it was was lucky if gold even fell $1 Cnd, as our dollar tumbled downwards at the same time. Oh well, I'll take what I can get. Like you said, "It is the time you are in the market that matters", in the long run.

maplesilverbug
23rd January 2010, 03:41
Moose...we fellow canucks feel your pain.

There was ONE day in early '09, when the US loaded up on something like $10 billion of its own T-bills -- which the rest of the world didn't seem to think was too wise.

Silver dropped and the C$ rose -- the best of both worlds.
I was fortunate enough to be home during the action and called in an order to load up on real money. That was the last time I bought a big wad of shiny.

I can wait until the US does something stupid like that again...shouldn't be too long now... ;)

Katwoman
1st February 2010, 16:52
It does not get much more volatile than this now does it?

Mylläri
1st February 2010, 22:28
You cannot call a short term market trend more than 4 hours in advance no matter how good you think you are at TA.

The long-term fundamentals remain bullish.

Pay attention to gold if really you want to know what silver will be doing next.

Silver is more volatile than gold.

As the price of silver goes up the volatility will increase too.

Buy the dips

Many have said things along these lines before and many will say things to this effect again, what is your point?


Do you know when it will go back up??

Yes I do, you probably don't know anything about my posting history but I called the top of the market ON THE EXACT DAY it topped and have done very well making calls in the past. I suppose its because I don't go on posting frenzies here every day espousing every last thing which crosses my mind that most don't want to lend me any credibility :rolleyes:

Oh well, I'll just chalk it up to having better things to do...

Katwoman
1st February 2010, 22:53
Many have said things along these lines before and many will say things to this effect again, what is your point?



Yes I do, you probably don't know anything about my posting history but I called the top of the market ON THE EXACT DAY it topped and have done very well making calls in the past. I suppose its because I don't go on posting frenzies here every day espousing every last thing which crosses my mind that most don't want to lend me any credibility :rolleyes:

Oh well, I'll just chalk it up to having better things to do...

Somethings are worth repeating as people tend to forget history when the market goes down and many also think it will go to straight to $50 when it goes up two bucks.

Relayer
2nd February 2010, 00:07
said....."You cannot call a short term market trend more than 4 hours in advance no matter how good you think you are at TA."

As I spend most my time viewing a 5 minute chart, yes, I would definitely agree with that.

So it follows that .......you should not base long term forecasts on short term movements.