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nuslvrkwen
29th May 2008, 14:24
I've been trying to learn all I can about why our investment hedge's value goes sideways and gain spirts are so dissappointing. They don't last longer than 7 days. I had a thread on the SEC Disclosure of funds commercial and consumer banks actually have, and the Libor rates they are required to charge each other for loans between themselves. All these rates are reported to the British Bankers Association. This system has been in place for 24 years and has built credibility for banking. International or otherwise. All the large banks in this country are members and use these Libor rates for loans between themselves because they add credibility to international trade and loans between banks, and the rates are less than NOT using them.

Bloomberg had some articles today that showed these member banks routinely misrepresented the amount of assets they truly had, and how they were allocated. This really started to get bad LAST YEAR. The discrepancies in the rates quoted were done to avoid the perception there were liquidity issues between banks! The banks suspected there were liquidity issues between each other! These Libor rates are the benchmark for pricing over 6 million mortgages and $350 Trillion Dollars US in derivatives and corporate bonds. The VERY paper trades we've been learning about being short and long.

The banks ALL KNEW they didn't have cash flow to cover anything. So they routinely borrowed more and more between each other. These short term loans between themselves are NOT required to be disclosed to the public! With these rates for the loans jumping from between 0.02% and 0.17% by the end of last year! Even with the increase in the rate spread for the loans' fees, these rates still could NOT cover the banks' costs of insuring the loan debt from default!

I'm talking about Citigroup, BOFA, HSBC, and other large consummer banks as well as Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley, Barclays PLc, & Lloyds! Banks that get our autodeposits every two weeks! Our paychecks are going into the bank. The bank's investment strategies for loans, and those loans defaulting created the credit crunch! If we the depositor tried to get all our cash (for our devalued dollar paychecks) out of these very large banks, not only would that bank fall, but EVERY OTHER BANK on this planet would fall. Including those in Asia. The stock market goes up just because the dollar regains 0.05! It rises nearly 100 points. The GDP ESTIMATE rose 0.03%. From 0.06 to 0.09%. The actual GDP won't be reported till sometime next year.

Despite oil still being high! Gold & Silver lose value! Why? So these very banks can PAY OFF these loans. The rates I'm talking about between these banks are for 3 month loans!!!

There's a June 4, 2008 deadline for Citigroup to decide to accept Deutsche Bank/Santander SA's bid to buy its' German consumer bank as a way to dispose of $400 million dollars US in assets to shore up its' capital. What the heck was Citigroup doing last year so they couldn't get this capital together in a timely fashion? NOTHING. None of the banks were doing anything, but borrowing between themselves with these misquoted rates. Loaning large sums of dollars to persons and entities that would DEFAULT on the stupid loans. When the dopey bank that made the loan couldn't afford to insure the loan in the first place!!!

I have a fantasy about turning this statement into a heavy metal anthem type song: "We have gone beyond the R; we are AT the D!" :cool: I'll know for sure if I'm wrong when Christmas time comes.

SilverWhore
29th May 2008, 14:37
This rapid decline in the silver price is making me antsy. I realize right now that the price is only at its pretty solid base of 16.50ish so this is really only coming down from last weeks climb. I'm still worried that it might go lower though. If that is the forecast, I would want to shortsell about a 5th of my holdings but overall I'm keeping my stash, I'm not going to get scared out of the market. I would like to know if it looks like silver will go a good amount lower than current spot though so I can make a move in time. Unfortunatly I'm spending a decent amount of my money in this while learning at the same time so I'm no expert and it seems like manipulation plays a big role in making things very difficult to track...

Richard
29th May 2008, 14:58
Hi nuslvrkwen

I didn't quite read the whole thing, but had to say ... I no longer keep a bank account. Closed the last one out a couple weeks ago and decided to use local currency exchange when I need to cash checks. I keep my money with me, pay for stuff, buy silver when it looks good etc.

Anyway, how exactly did you arrive at the 350 trillion amount?

Richard
29th May 2008, 15:04
This rapid decline in the silver price is making me antsy. I realize right now that the price is only at its pretty solid base of 16.50ish so this is really only coming down from last weeks climb. I'm still worried that it might go lower though. If that is the forecast, I would want to shortsell about a 5th of my holdings but overall I'm keeping my stash, I'm not going to get scared out of the market. I would like to know if it looks like silver will go a good amount lower than current spot though so I can make a move in time. Unfortunatly I'm spending a decent amount of my money in this while learning at the same time so I'm no expert and it seems like manipulation plays a big role in making things very difficult to track...

I didn't think it would be hammered all the way back down, either. Friggin amazing! Anyway, I wish there was something I could tell ya, but you're buying power is going bye-bye anyhow so... look at it this way, silver's down along with it. What makes the best sense, given that bizaro picture?

I would buy or just stay where you're at and only sell some if you're desperate. Whatever you do... good luck!

nuslvrkwen
29th May 2008, 16:37
Anyway, how exactly did you arrive at the 350 trillion amount? - Richard

The Bloomberg article quoted that estimate! Then the article goes on to talk about defaulted loan write downs reaching $385 Billion so far! So the printed paper money has $350 Trillion pieces of it floating around looking like it's actually SPENDING! Congrats Richard on being able to get away with out needing a bank. I HATE THEM because they've always shortchanged people regarding their true assets. The money we all earn and use for our own expenses is already spent by them (!) when we deposit it! When you want the money back, they give it to you - but's spending ability has been devalued by inflation, and by the exchange of the dollar! Compared to how much the lousy dollar was worth when you deposited it!

The only reason the Libor rates have returned to sort of what they should be is because the BBA threatened to ban banks who misquoted the rates. Meaning they wouldn't be able to borrow from the other member banks at the rates they were getting!

My reason for even bringing all this up is because if silver keeps a very low price, there is really no way for businesses and individuals to actually grow wealth. Silver has alot of industrial uses, and production has to be maintained. If the products silver is going into are actually SELLING then the price should have gone up! Supply and demand! We all of us are technically LONG term investors in silver because ALL of us understand how it can maintain a spendability value over our poor dollars whenever we should HAVE to or WANT to sell! The problem is our view of what holding long term means! I'm a new silver holder also. I thought by now, I'd be looking to sell some in bullion in August. Holding the majority of my assets forever. I wasn't looking forward to when I had to BUY silver at whatever price it would be to REPLACE what I'd sold if I sold in August! It was just part of this kind of investment.

The way the market is going so far. I wouldn't feel comfortable selling the amount I originally planned on selling in August! I'm understanding I may have to hold on to what I own now, and budget to pay for what I was planning on buying with the money from silver in August! Why would I consider this? Late this year, and early next year for starters. I don't care WHAT's being said in Bloomberg or by investment advisors, things are bad. Have been since early last year.

The memoire by Scott McLellan is going to rattle some cages. He's not disgruntled. He's disillusioned! Nothing in his book is telling us anything we all didn't suspect anyway. Now it's out in the open, we can think about what to do! To help ourselves! Our economic situation is so awful now, no matter WHO wins the election they BETTER be ready to hit the ground running on how to jump start serious MONEY coming in. The merge business entities/print money/tell folks to buy stuff scenerio is getting so stale, it's backfiring because people's lifestyle is being challenged. For example: Today in the SF Chronicle Business Section there was an article about people trying to SELL their SUV's! The resale values are so low, the owners are STUCK with high payments, the low gas mileage per gallon, the insurance, and maintanance! Like these idiots didn't figure this junk out BEFORE they bought the SUV in the first place. The financing lured them to become suckers! And these bozos had the gall to try and lord it over the rest of the public that they were successful because they could afford the payments on these behemoths!

Based on what I've read in this forum, MOST of you hate these idiots too! And ALL of us could AFFORD to buy the same stupid SUVs, but we had more important issues to tend to, rather than ego stroke. Strongman Shelford listed papers he reads online (I hope). Bloomberg is one, I like Bloomberg. But even traders and former traders like Nassim Taleb say it tries to give you a reason for market changes, and can actually confuse you.

Back in the day I learned to respect teaching one's self. Getting out the books and reading articles and TALKING to others who knew about the subject matter. I'm thinking we in this forum all have in common this one thing: We DON'T KNOW other people who fully understand commodities and silver. We have the resource of reports and articles by Ted Butler, Izzy, and Jason Hommell. They've actually stepped up in public to take the heat for QUESTIONING the authorities who've worked so hard to HIDE these financial failures for so long! I no longer read articles by advisors regarding stocks. They've sheepherded the average investor now to the point where like the SUV owners they are 'debt committed' to go only in the ways these advisors, and their payment schedule will allow. Investing is supposed to provide you with freedom, not shackle you to where you'll be scared to make a change because of loss you fear you won't get back. In stocks that happens all the time. But hold metal long enough and it will make you rich. Really!

Richard
29th May 2008, 21:00
Okay, I didn't see/register Bloomburg before. Will check it. What I'm trying to do is, impossible at it probably is, get an idea of just how much money there is. I've heard as low as 100 trillion to as high as 600. I guess it doesn't much matter... currencies are TANKED!

On SUVs... Hey hey... I didn't finance what I couldn't afford! And if one thinks that's an ego trip, ha! Did you know more fatalities have occurred in the lighter-smaller cars since all this fuel "efficiency" nonsense started? Plus, they do good in the snow :) Anyway, I've done the figuring... I would lose MORE in getting a new "fuel efficient" car than with the old SUV (which is paid for and in good shape). Like Dodge an their offer to pay for gas past 2.99... I would be spending at least 140 more per month even if gas hit 8/gallon! Get a hybrid... I won't EVEN go there, nope!



My reason for even bringing all this up is because if silver keeps a very low price, there is really no way for businesses and individuals to actually grow wealth. I wasn't looking forward to when I had to BUY silver at whatever price it would be to REPLACE what I'd sold if I sold in August! It was just part of this kind of investment.

Yeah, ain't no getting around that! It's like we're locked in for good unless we want to screw ourselves. Hmm... I wonder how long before people will just start to trade it for what it's worth? I don't think we'll really have much of a choice as this attrition carries on.

Or have a revolution...

I really think it's the left on commodities likes oil, to drive price up. The right... sitting on silver. What a wonderful tag-team, huh? Some say, despite hating the Fed and the system, that hyper-inflation will not likely result from all this. But man... the left and right HATE each other. It's literally their war going on now, in the markets. And look all they are doing in their mad grab for power, to decide how we will be ruled! They don't care! People are starving, resources are going to run out from the want of sound investment...

No, you won't be selling in August. Not to profit anyway. If you're as smart as you seem, you won't be selling at all. With buying power vanishing, and silver going lower there is only one sane course to follow.

I'm tapped. I can't buy anymore for a long while unless it does go lower into the 15's and this commodities **** eases up... assuming I can find any at that price when/if that happens. Nothing I see is selling less than premium or more.

CitizenPete
29th May 2008, 22:40
Ya, no lie!
Maybe junk or misc rounds? But certainly not SEs, and bars 10-100oz. If you can afford a COMEX bar then you might get spot (delivery times may vary ;) )

If SE Monster boxes go below 8K -- I will leverage credit if I have to get 1 or 2. Nasty business!

hiyosilver
29th May 2008, 23:18
Those of you considering selling, I myself think you're making a mistake. But I will say this: I think and even hope the price will drop to around $15.70 or so, which appears where it's headed. If you study the $SILVER chart, you'll see that the price, the 200 day MA, and the bottom Bollinger band are all about to meet with each other. This is a strong indicator of a bounce from that point establishing a new foundation for the next leg up. If we moved up about the same amount as the last leg up in the same amount of time, we would be at about $24 by Nov. 1, but I anticipate better than that.

But hey, it's your money...

SilverWhore
29th May 2008, 23:28
Those of you considering selling, I myself think you're making a mistake. But I will say this: I think and even hope the price will drop to around $15.70 or so, which appears where it's headed. If you study the $SILVER chart, you'll see that the price, the 200 day MA, and the bottom Bollinger band are all about to meet with each other. This is a strong indicator of a bounce from that point establishing a new foundation for the next leg up. If we moved up about the same amount as the last leg up in the same amount of time, we would be at about $24 by Nov. 1, but I anticipate better than that.

But hey, it's your money...

Thanks alot for your input. By the way, I was only wondering about selling some of my junkier silver if the price was looking to go significantly more downward so that I could buy up more for cheap at that point with the money I made. I wouldn't be worried about getting more silver, there is plenty to buy here. My only reservation about selling some or not is over where the price is going to go. I know nobody knows that really, but I'm speaking in general forseeable trends. Thanks for your opinion and for yours too Richard =P

Trvlr45
29th May 2008, 23:41
The government just gave a greenlight to the Saudi's and their pals over in the gulf to unpeg from the dollar. What does anyone think that will do to the price of silver? Up or down? I'm thinking down if the price of oil drops due to them selling it for a stonger currency.

TechGnosis
30th May 2008, 01:50
I really think it's the left on commodities likes oil, to drive price up. The right... sitting on silver. What a wonderful tag-team, huh? Some say, despite hating the Fed and the system, that hyper-inflation will not likely result from all this. But man... the left and right HATE each other. It's literally their war going on now, in the markets. And look all they are doing in their mad grab for power, to decide how we will be ruled!

What left and right are you referring to? Do you mean the old Left/Right political spectrum notion? Surely you realise by now that this is a false dichotomy, part of the facade of "democracy"? In the U.S. in particular, there is no serious distinction or policy difference between the Republicans and Democrats; both are owned by the financial power which directs the show; both are instruments of bringing about the NWO. If there is any serious political dichotomy, it is between Up and Down, the rulers and the ruled. Who was it that said "politics is the entertainment division of industry"? Frank Zappa? We know a bit more now, enough to realise that the Corporatocracy is not the top level of the power pyramid, however; the Man Behind the Curtain is the international banking cartel. I don't see any "mad grab for power" going on; the power has been in their hands since the early 19th century.

waynetheking
30th May 2008, 06:31
will go up when OIL go's up!..i think it's just that simple. and oil will go up. hang on to what you have and you won't be disappointed in the next 18 to 36 months. this is a waiting game folks!...the silver market is not for PIGS or CHICKENS!!....sit tight, let it dip. don't track it everyday and it will and does go UP over time!!..are ya with me??

Richard
30th May 2008, 07:06
What left and right are you referring to? Do you mean the old Left/Right political spectrum notion? Surely you realise by now that this is a false dichotomy, part of the facade of "democracy"?

Well, I did say "what a tag-team" or something to that effect so I didn't mean to say there was a difference. I don't recall if that was in ths topic or another, though. But something itches. Every time I think about it, see it out of the corner of my eye... I see SOMETHING going on that makes me suspect the partership is not intentional.

I wish I could explain further, but since I haven't got it all worked out... that'll have to wait.

SilverWhore: I think it was amadeus who mentioned playing the dips and peaks with junk silver. And the other day, I played with numistics and the recent dip to increase my holdings by something like 6.5 ounces (I haven't added it up yet...). Of course, numistics is it's own thing but I think doign so with junk would work. I just don't have enough of it to make it work to try it in earnest.

Trvlr: Funny... I have heard nothing about that! Not saying you're lying, as something like this... why would they make it loud and clear? Or maybe I just missed it. It happens. :)

Anyway, I don't think that will bring prices down much if at all because they won't just DUMP their dollars. Someone will buy up that and it will find it's way to our banks and economy... in time, if there is any immediate effect, our gas prices will just go up more than they already are, I think. But there COULD be a temporary relief. What I wonder now is... will Hillary get her tax break this summer? It is, afterall, so coincidental. But that's assuming the currency OPEC switches to IS, in fact, better than ours. They're all falling, remember, some just faster than others.

So overall, in the mid to longer run I don't think it will add up to a hill of beans. That's just right off the top of my head, though.

hekura
30th May 2008, 09:10
"Those of you considering selling, I myself think you're making a mistake. But I will say this: I think and even hope the price will drop to around $15.70 or so, which appears where it's headed."

...Hey, Hiyo!

...I am in total agreement with you. I figure silver will creep up a bit, and tank again. Today's opening shows marginal recovery, but, as exhibited Monday, mass liquidation of imaginary silver still rules. There are a few cycles of this still possible...but, if you notice, the frequency is gaining momentum. I think that for the last couple of decades, silver became this vehicle for control and profit-taking because it was the red-headed stepchild of PM's. And for a looooonng time, nobody really cared and looked. Now, it's a real asset, and nervous private dollar holders, the few of us who are blessed at least with enough disposable income to chip away at amassing an alternative store of value, do so.

I am seeing part of the equation in another thread about silver obsession. For many of us, these little pretty bits of metal represent our future...down to a gallon of milk, a tank of gas, a plane ticket to safety. It is unthinkable for corporations which thrive on the consumerist addiction to technology, which uses silver as the fulcrum upon which to leverage their electrons, to allow production costs to be eclipsed by high silver prices. Similarly, as is cited in the Bloomberg report, misrepresentation of working capital has become the "necessary evil" required to float institutions far beyond their capabilities. Unfortunately, I feel PM's will be leveraged and manipulated as long as these institutions hold the power to do so. Market forces also come into play here...consumerism is winding down. I have a feeling there will be less demand for the latest I-pod. Massive reduction in electronics demands will possibly push silver down too.

If I thought in dollars, I would figure I have truly lost it some days...but I don't. As it relates to banks, there's only one account, and it's used only to convert paper into paper, and then into food, fuel, shelter...and PM. All of them (PM's) are used to leverage UNREALITY. Some are still safer than silver, though...Palladium can be obtained still for spot...day to day...there's a little FYI for nervous dollar thinkers.

...the reality for us...well ME, anyway...is that whether silver goes lower or not, there just isn't any to be had. I can agree with some in this thread that Ag may fall much farther...but I know that dumping a portion or all of my investment would be tantamount to suicide...I would NEVER get it back. I have found a steady and certain source, for now...but it comes at a heavy premium...STILL. The premium is based on, "fine, whine, but find what you want somewhere else,"...I can't. Those of you who see this as flinging handfuls of 100 dollar bills out the car window, on life's freeway, are thinking in DOLLARS. When all is said and done...the "dollar lie" will have come undone. I have read in these forums some anticipation of accumulating Ag at, or below spot...WHERE? Even if this can be done, which I doubt...deliveries are jacked, and at least for me, I am highly mobile...I must spread my time between US and UK...I am a little tense committing chunks of cash towards deliveries months hence.

It almost seems that the end-game is going to be a battle of will. How long will we, the consumer, be able to hold our relatively pathetic stash of PM, when we need groceries. The turn to Ag by our VERY late awakening neighbors will piss them off ROYALLY, as published prices may be low...but the only thing they will be able to find will be at huge premiums over that. The few of us that whine now will be eclipsed by an exponential phenomenon of public whining. Hommel pointed out some basic economic theory in his latest article...market forces: price=demand-supply. As the supply component reduces to zero...price, officially, or unofficially rockets. There is already a huge divergence from spot prices...this is called a BLACK MARKET. Regardless what the blessed number representing spot is for the day...REALITY prevails.

...good luck to you all...

J

nuslvrkwen
30th May 2008, 15:16
The reason I mentioned my thinking about selling a portion of my holdings in August - was to illustrate how all of us miscalculated what short holding and long holding is for physical PM; in this current economy. When I started at the beginning of the year, I was watching the market get it's biggest gain ever in March. I hadn't been paying attention to the market prior to January. I'd started buying in January, and thought silver's value would grow at a steady pace. If silver kept the pace it had in Feb/March - by Christmas this year, my collection would be worth about $10K! I'd have been able to afford to sell some, and buy more later. But our economic situation has stalled it's rise. I'm still buying so my price per oz average will be lower. Meaning once it turns around it'll be profitable to me sooner!

I learned the US options markets want to use Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) as a gauge of EXPECTATIONS for central bank rates! The FED uses the one month OIS rate to set the minimum bid level when it lends cash to banks through its' Term Auction Facility. This rate is an alternative to the Libor rate. (Libor means London Inter Bank Offered Rate) And basically, it's showing me all these banks are doing is MORE hiding of actual funds available. The OIS rate is actually used by Dubai at Emirates NBD PJSC - the Persian Gulf's biggest asset bank! So much for oil going down because of lending rates no longer being quoted in dollars.

All I know is, despite the huge flow of paper money; I really don't think the world HAS enough assets to actually pay for what the paper money represents. Look at the crooks at the CFTC - they're so out of it they think the investor is SATISFIED knowing what ever paper they are holding has the PROMISE it can be turned into bullion! If THAT's true - if I buy oil on the commodities market, can I take possession then? NO. The paper certificate is for the investors 'convenience' so they don't have to carry the metals around! Never mind the futures market's volume will devalue any currency it uses! Its' all about deluting the concentration of debt, baby! The debt's going to be around for a while - spread it out, pay on it longer. When there's an emergency OR heaven forbid - an OPPORTUNITY - it won't matter cause you won't be able to help yourself or take advantage TO your advantage cause you're paying bills with paper! :roll: I thought investing was GROWING WEALTH NOT paying bills.... That's what the people of this nation have been doing for the past 10 years.

Richard
30th May 2008, 19:27
Palladium can be obtained still for spot...day to day...there's a little FYI for nervous dollar thinkers.

You know, you might be on to something.

Has anyone else given this any consideration?

Trvlr45
31st May 2008, 02:42
Trvlr: Funny... I have heard nothing about that! Not saying you're lying, as something like this... why would they make it loud and clear? Or maybe I just missed it. It happens

It was an article I came across on "321Gold. It is probably still there. They say Merril-Lynch let the cat out of the bag.

nuslvrkwen
2nd June 2008, 18:38
Palladium can be obtained still for spot...day to day...there's a little FYI for nervous dollar thinkers. - Hekura

I HADN'T thought about Palladium spot as super short buy hold trade. I'm not up on ratios either, but supposedly the ratio is great to hold this and trade up to silver. I'm wondering about physical purchase and sale. Palladium is used to plate silver jewelry and give a white metal finish to items made with copper and brass. I hadn't thought about getting some bars of it, other than buying it through the mail at Kitco, where else can I buy it? I'm checking my jewelry metal supplier to see if they have any.

As far as Merrill Lynch encouraging the Gulf Arab oil produces to change from dollar pegged foreign exchange policies - it may be because of the OIS. It's the Overnight Index Swap rate. That's in dollars. It's being used by corporate banks lately for super short term loans - overnight to 3 days - between banks. Even oil producers would use an international bank to do anything, expand production, sell wells, or merge companies. It's being used by Dubai banks right now. Seeing as Dubai is richer than the oil producers and has no wells - I'm figuring the rest of the middle east will follow its' lead.

Today according to Bloomberg; Merril Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman's credit ratings got lowered because the S&P EXPECTS they will be writing down more debt the rest of the year. These firms with the big names' credit ratings were only at AA- or A+ in the first place! 5 years ago, this news alone would have brought us to worldwide Depression. They and Bear Stearns were also big players in the 'misquote the Libor rate' game that's been going on since last year.

This indexed swap rate is what would also affect exchange rates with the dollar on the world market. Maybe these idiots figure if they use this 'independant' indexed swap rate the dollar can't fluctuate very much during the duration of the loan; which can't be longer than 72 hours. My next wonder - WHERE are these banks GETTING the money loaned to them FROM so they can USE the OIS rate to swap? Answer: From a Libor member bank?

So far, I've been told by many contributors here they only have one bank account and don't HOLD large sums of money in the account. Most also have money to invest because they don't have any debt!! This is the smartest move we can all do! These stupid institutions are going to crash BIG either by end of year or next year for sure! They can't keep this shell game up for too much longer. Despite the $364+ Trillions in bonds and derivatives floating around... Silver price will stay where it is as long as it can - because these institutions are USING it as currency/collatoral to GET the loans in the first place...