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JesterJay
25th May 2008, 19:41
What's going to happen next?
Big dip. Time to buy again.
Or is the price going to the MOON?
Or something in between.
Let me know your thoughts/guesses/chart results,
JesterJay

amadeus
25th May 2008, 22:37
I'm thinking silver is going to ride on up with oil for a bit, more then likely break $20 again (time to dump any low percentage silver), then dip down to the 17/18's (I doubt it'll go back to the 16's) for a bit before going up again (and while it's back in a dip use the $ from dumping low % silver to buy more high percent)

Richard
26th May 2008, 00:14
19 or well into the 19's by week's end, I think. But probably first play about the low 18's like it's doing now. Don't think we'll see 17's again for a good looooong while, unless 34 by year's end counts as in "seeing double" :)

waynetheking
26th May 2008, 17:10
oil go's up, silver and gold go's up. BUT, when the american economy turns around, and it will, then silver and gold will tank! if it hits 21 this time i'm turning a profit on 100% of it. stash tha cash and wait till 16 returns in the heat of summer!!...i hope im wrong and we see 30 by next year. but all the spin on oil and real estate and tight credit just mess'es this pm market up!!...any thoughts?

Richard
26th May 2008, 18:35
when the american economy turns around, and it will, then silver and gold will tank!

Key word: when the American economy turns around...

I simply can't see this summer as a turn around point, unless I slept for twenty years and it's really May 26 2028.

But if by some freak chance it does start to turn around, and silver tanks, I will just buy more :)

JesterJay
26th May 2008, 19:24
Mr. TheKing,
I must warn you that your proposal is very speculative and could leave you on the sidelines with lots of (useless?) cash and no silver to be found to get you BACK IN. Cash in 100%. Geez, I hope you have quick reactions. Where you gonna find that silver "just that quick" to jump back in?

I believe we are right at the cusp: Silver shortages abound, manipulations sputtering out, INCREASED interest in investing, the big dealers and their surrogates are SHOUTING from the rooftops that... "Silver is bad to OWN, Sell it!", the US mint will soon quit making Silver Eagles, the Perth Mint has NO silver along with (I am guessing) most every other "hold it for you" entity. The dealers are WANTING and wishing the price to go down because they are horribly SHORT and short of silver. They will lose if YOU WIN!

Don't get out unless you want to stay out. I'll be buying up to $25 where it looks fortuitous. THE IS NO SURPLUS!!! Silver is the most scarce PM there is. Gold is bountious, and the others don't really matter too much.

The economy means NOTHING at this point. Sure, it would make silver and gold go up a bit more if the economy showed more weakness. Knee-jerk reactions notwithstanding.
BUT, It doesn't matter if the econ gets better because the fundamentals of silver are GREAT and the manipulation is near its end.

By the heat of summer, Silver will Sizzle! Volatility will be even greater than before. How will you time the 2 and 3 dollar per week spikes up and down? Do what you think is the right thing. But if you think Silver is weak short-term, I think you are in for some pain.

The Quickening is NOW upon us!
JesterJay



oil go's up, silver and gold go's up. BUT, when the american economy turns around, and it will, then silver and gold will tank! if it hits 21 this time i'm turning a profit on 100% of it. stash tha cash and wait till 16 returns in the heat of summer!!...i hope im wrong and we see 30 by next year. but all the spin on oil and real estate and tight credit just mess'es this pm market up!!...any thoughts?

TTAZZMAN
26th May 2008, 22:01
this appears to be typical summer ups n downs...this up is being driven by the oil speculation frenzy and will subside when and if the oil speculators get over bought.

i dont expect any serious action till august/september when a lot of the physical silver starts flowing into india etc. physical takes no prisoners in the market.

a couple of intresting things this year different than previous years is #1 the US mint choosing not to meet the demand.(extra bullish) and #2 Mr. Hommels drum beat of retoric about physical vs Paper should all his retoric convince some of the paper holders to start moving to physical this could be a summer to remember.

Waynetheking......if you get out...what are you going to get into??? dollars? stocks?

amadeus
26th May 2008, 23:01
Sorry but silver is NOT the most scarce PM, it is the exact opposite. It is the most abundant PM, and there is no real hard proof that it is otherwise. If, in reality, silver was the most scarce PM, it would still command the highest price among the PM's despite any manipulation that may or may not be occurring in the market.

There is no silver shortage. I've never had a problem acquiring silver BELOW spot price when I wanted it at any moment in recent memory (or ever for that matter). Local "shortages" mean nothing... mint shortages only mean more silver is in the hands of private investors/holders/businesses/etc or they simply are choosing to hold as much as possible in anticipation of profit in this bullish PM market....not that there is a global shortage...that is naught but a wet dream of the over-optimistic silver investor. It is more than likely the mint has PLENTY of silver to make ASE's however they're choosing to hold onto it and profit themselves from the bullish PM market in the mid to long term. (I know I would if I were in charge of the mint...)

Don't get me wrong, I'm very bullish on silver and think great things will come to those who buy and hold this great PM hysically in the relatively near future, but I'm certainly not getting carried away in the crazy hype that has been spewing about lately regarding silver's potential. If one digs around enough and relates the right stats together they could make a case that any metal on this planet should soon be skyrocketing in price...

In any case I'm standing by my original prediction that silver will break 20 (and probably it's recent high) again very soon then drop to the 17/18 range for a while, probably stagnate there for a while before jumping up and reaching new highs yet again late in the summer (likely August).

JesterJay
27th May 2008, 00:39
According to amadeus,
The experts whose life work it is to study silver are all wrong and big bufoons. Ted and Jason are full of it. Morgan is a moron.
And the big dealers who are HUGE SHORT are correct when they say silver will fall into the summer months. Because if it doesn't they are SUPER SCREWED.
Well, with such excellent insight and analysis into these TRUTHS...
I humbly agree to disagree.
JesterJay




Sorry but silver is NOT the most scarce PM, it is the exact opposite. It is the most abundant PM, and there is no real hard proof that it is otherwise. If, in reality, silver was the most scarce PM, it would still command the highest price among the PM's despite any manipulation that may or may not be occurring in the market.

There is no silver shortage. I've never had a problem acquiring silver BELOW spot price when I wanted it at any moment in recent memory (or ever for that matter). Local "shortages" mean nothing... mint shortages only mean more silver is in the hands of private investors/holders/businesses/etc or they simply are choosing to hold as much as possible in anticipation of profit in this bullish PM market....not that there is a global shortage...that is naught but a wet dream of the over-optimistic silver investor. It is more than likely the mint has PLENTY of silver to make ASE's however they're choosing to hold onto it and profit themselves from the bullish PM market in the mid to long term. (I know I would if I were in charge of the mint...)

Don't get me wrong, I'm very bullish on silver and think great things will come to those who buy and hold this great PM hysically in the relatively near future, but I'm certainly not getting carried away in the crazy hype that has been spewing about lately regarding silver's potential. If one digs around enough and relates the right stats together they could make a case that any metal on this planet should soon be skyrocketing in price...

In any case I'm standing by my original prediction that silver will break 20 (and probably it's recent high) again very soon then drop to the 17/18 range for a while, probably stagnate there for a while before jumping up and reaching new highs yet again late in the summer (likely August).

Richard
27th May 2008, 01:38
amadeus,

What you're saying does make sense, in that a plateau would first have to be established before another big leg up occurrs. I can see this happening, but I place it's range much higher (~20-25 and, not ~17-20).

And that's why it doesn't make sense to me to sell my silver, regardless if a plateau occurrs higher or lower or how long that side-ways will last. If one does sell, they're going to

a) risk paying a lot of money to get back in if they can even do it by then and

b) what would they gain if the price is going to more or less stay where it's at (wherever that will be)?

It's a pretty risky bet, one I say that is not worth taking (let alone 100%). I would instead, if I simply had to, sell of a portion and keep some in stash. I hope for waynetheking's sake that he turns out to have made the correct move; it won't bother me if the price drops for a while, but it will totally screw anyone who gets out completely, too soon.

Now, if the economy does turn around...

But that's just the thing. If that happened, it would require the gold/silver ratio to correct just as it would require the commodity bubbles to burst to see what supply and demand really are. So one would do well to hold their silver not sell it for worthless notes because silver would peak WAY over it's current spot price. How long that would last is anyone's guess, but it will have to happen because the momentum in it's fundamentals are anything but easy to divert to another outcome at this point. It would require the manipulators to pull something out from their sleeve, and since inflation has invaded all markets... I really can't see they have anything left to make a sudden turn-around. Who/What can afford to absorb the massive debt, let alone allow this farce of a "free" marekt to continue even just a little while longer?

hiyosilver
27th May 2008, 03:46
I figure the cabal is going to hit PM pretty hard, pretty quick, maybe today....but to me that would just mean one has another opportunity to get more real money with less paper...that suits me fine....let's see what happens.

waynetheking
27th May 2008, 06:35
I just want to say thankyou for your input here! If i do sell at 21 and then buy at 16 then i just made a huge profit on 2700 oz of fine silver! nothing wrong with that, right? but my buyback product will be 100 oz bars from nwt mint and that would be boring! i have a damn good interesting and diverese collection now that took alot of hard work to aquire. no use in making a few dollars now(at a risk) and buying later(at a risk). Nope im gonna hold on for the ride here and see what happens!!..besides i don't want to be in the catagory of "speculater" and thats excatly what i would be doing!!

Richard
27th May 2008, 08:40
I figure the cabal is going to hit PM pretty hard, pretty quick, maybe today....but to me that would just mean one has another opportunity to get more real money with less paper...that suits me fine....let's see what happens.

They hammered it pretty hard and pretty quick today :)

Wayne: Hope it works out for ya!

prahudka
27th May 2008, 13:45
I figure the cabal is going to hit PM pretty hard, pretty quick, maybe today....but to me that would just mean one has another opportunity to get more real money with less paper...that suits me fine....let's see what happens.

http://www.chartseeker.com/images/AG-5Y-LG.png?r=377565651624.5121

If you plot out the five year history for silver, you are going to see a "rising tide -- tsunami" pattern that is a clear indicator of an upward water-treading position. The last three short term peaks are examples of fibonacci sequences, since in conjunction with the full moon, is evidence of an infallible explosion into an entirely new silver consciousness.

So, I think it is very clear that we may well have a good chance of getting within about $4.00 of my $20.00 per oz. strike price.

In short, I have no idea. And, not understanding the technical charts (or caring), I like to make fun of them.

If anyone can give me a good reason to pay attention to "inverted triangles" or resistance levels, I would be happy to be educated (since I am clearly not educated). Seems you are either long or your arent.

amadeus
27th May 2008, 16:05
I only suggest selling low purity silver on the peaks (40% JFK's, War nickels, etc) then taking that money to buy more pure stuff in the dips as it holds greater value in the long run.

Down nearly 75 cents today. Ouch.

JesterJay
27th May 2008, 16:10
Or is that Minor Speculation?
Good idea to increase the quality.
The Volatile DROP will be short lived and difficult to take advantage of.
Ag will be up by the end of the MONTH!
JesterJay




I only suggest selling low purity silver on the peaks (40% JFK's, War nickels, etc) then taking that money to buy more pure stuff in the dips as it holds greater value in the long run.

Down nearly 75 cents today. Ouch.

JesterJay
27th May 2008, 16:15
I understand EVERYTHING now.
The enlightened one,
JesterJay



http://www.chartseeker.com/images/AG-5Y-LG.png?r=377565651624.5121

If you plot out the five year history for silver, you are going to see a "rising tide -- tsunami" pattern that is a clear indicator of an upward water-treading position. The last three short term peaks are examples of fibonacci sequences, since in conjunction with the full moon, is evidence of an infallible explosion into an entirely new silver consciousness.

So, I think it is very clear that we may well have a good chance of getting within about $4.00 of my $20.00 per oz. strike price.

In short, I have no idea. And, not understanding the technical charts (or caring), I like to make fun of them.

If anyone can give me a good reason to pay attention to "inverted triangles" or resistance levels, I would be happy to be educated (since I am clearly not educated). Seems you are either long or your arent.

amadeus
27th May 2008, 16:17
Sure it's minor speculation, but even if you don't hit the peaks/dips exactly right (which would be near impossible) in selling low % to buy higher % & only end up with at least the same # of hard ounces owned in the end, you're still better off.

JesterJay
27th May 2008, 16:23
I STILL agree with you. Upgrading to higher quality is almost always a good/great idea.
JesterJay



Sure it's minor speculation, but even if you don't hit the peaks/dips exactly right (which would be near impossible) in selling low % to buy higher % & only end up with at least the same # of hard ounces owned in the end, you're still better off.

Richard
27th May 2008, 20:52
In short, I have no idea. And, not understanding the technical charts (or caring), I like to make fun of them.

I thought so, by the begining of your post! :)

Fundamentals... technicals... They're each about as good as the other in predicting what will be. But in my limited experience, neither are good at predicting TIME, which unfortunately is everything in investing!

amadeus,

Hmm... Never looked at it that way. I'll look into it and give it a try!

JesterJay
27th May 2008, 21:50
Just to expand on this thought and FURTHER agree with amadeus:
I ALWAYS take advantage of a "good deal". Even if it is not something I would normally buy. Hey, if I can turn it and then UPGRADE, I am moving in a positive direction.
Example:
I have bought some of those real pretty Gold layered Fancy Silver Saint Gaudens look-a-like type 8 oz FULL Half Pound of Fine Silver coins for cents over spot. Then BOOM. 1.5 to 3 times spot on ebay and AWAY THEY GO!
I sold a bunch of items like this when Ag hit the 20's.
IMPROVING quality sometimes means cashing in the spendy stuff and buying the EFFICIENT bullion.
Upgrade and Conquer!
JesterJay



I STILL agree with you. Upgrading to higher quality is almost always a good/great idea.
JesterJay

hiyosilver
28th May 2008, 03:12
No charts or technicals here....just realized with PM going up and stocks and bonds going down at the same time, the cabal guys were probably pissing their pants and squirming around, wishing Memorial Day would hurry up and get over with so they could shove their fat, sticky, stubby little fingers back into the pot again.......Can't you here them now?....."Take that! You miserable silver hoarders!...How dare you make me soil my drawers!"

waynetheking
28th May 2008, 05:48
as of this writing it's at 17.20?...we lost a buck in 2 days??i have not seen the price of oil yet but i bet it's down. the euro is down against the allmighty buck.....hmm, we need some doomsday inflation news somewere out there today!!..com'on msnbc, cnn. i know you can find something bad to report!!

JesterJay
28th May 2008, 16:15
That a bunch of guys on the WhateverEX defaulted in their shorts, I mean on their short sales.
That is the BAD that is GOOD!
I will never cheer for truly bad economic news.
Careful what you wish for,
JesterJay



as of this writing it's at 17.20?...we lost a buck in 2 days??i have not seen the price of oil yet but i bet it's down. the euro is down against the allmighty buck.....hmm, we need some doomsday inflation news somewere out there today!!..com'on msnbc, cnn. i know you can find something bad to report!!