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Katwoman
9th December 2009, 12:34
We have now broken through support for silver. I am a little shocked and cannot even predict what will happen next since this movement is contraindicated and defies logic, TA, and the fundamentals for PMs.

On the other hand who cares buy the big dip :)

paperplane
9th December 2009, 12:35
im pretty shock myself... as you always point out... BUY THE DIPS! :D

ryshay
9th December 2009, 12:40
We have now broken through support for silver. I am a little shocked and cannot even predict what will happen next since this movement is contraindicated and defies logic, TA, and the fundamentals for PMs.

On the other hand who cares buy the big dip :)

Why are you so surprised? If you were JPM, and wanted to trigger as many stop losses as you can in a tiny silver market, wouldn't you? Breaking a big DMA will help JPM liquidate as many technical fund long positions as possible, triggering automatic stop-losses, while JPM can cover some shorts at the same time.

Katwoman
9th December 2009, 12:49
True but gold has not broken through support at $1070 so there is "gold lining" to this silver dip which makes it an even more attractive buying opportunity right now.

As Main would say attention K mart shoppers silver is on sale in aisle 1:)

Katwoman
9th December 2009, 12:52
Why are you so surprised? If you were JPM, and wanted to trigger as many stop losses as you can in a tiny silver market, wouldn't you? Breaking a big DMA will help JPM liquidate as many technical fund long positions as possible, triggering automatic stop-losses, while JPM can cover some shorts at the same time.

I am thinking possible market manipulation too but I am tempted to shy away from this explanation given that Tiny Tim has been seen flapping his lips today too.

cowboycarl04
9th December 2009, 12:57
What's really interesting on a day like today is that the 10 year bond did not have as much interest as anticipated. The yield (am I saying that right) is going higher towards 4%, yet we have a gold/silver sell-off.

I would have thought the opposite (gold/silver/oil to go higher). Now I will never call manipulation for people/traders can invest as they wish, but unprecedented short contracts from US banks just shows what they want, and they seem to get their way 99% of the time.

As for me, buy the dips and average it all out.

DaleFromCalgary
9th December 2009, 13:00
"I am a little shocked and cannot even predict what will happen next since this movement is contraindicated and defies logic, TA, and the fundamentals for PMs."

This is why I don't use technical analysis. TA doesn't work in rigged markets, and you can bet that the Wall Street banksters are doing everything they can to cover their short positions.

The long-term fundamentals say gold and silver will go up. Peak Gold happened in 2001. Peak Silver is not yet here, but since it is an industrial and medical commodity, the demand will support prices over the long range.

New User
9th December 2009, 13:19
I'm at a loss to explain the dip to $17.09, but my new ASE's, Philharmonics, & Maple Leafs all say thank you. What a great day to buy.

MasterQ
9th December 2009, 13:30
We have now broken through support for silver. I am a little shocked and cannot even predict what will happen next since this movement is contraindicated and defies logic, TA, and the fundamentals for PMs.

On the other hand who cares buy the big dip :)

I can't find a single article why oil went into such a sell off.

Yes OIL was the culprit in this market. Ahead of winter, ahead of more warring in Afghan, ahead of travel season....go figure!!

BUY THE HELL OUT OF THIS!!!!

My last key support is 17.05 but I did see 16.95 as a possible margin of error. That was to the benefit of those who were still looking for something in the 16's.

This should be it though folks. If oil didn't start to tank Kat and I would have been very spot on. The dollar is barely still up. It can't break any higher.

Look for major retracement up for oil in the next week. Kind of right on schedule but I didn't think we would have dipped this low before friday.

Good luck to us all!!

-Q

DaleFromCalgary
9th December 2009, 13:58
"[I can't find a single article why oil went into such a sell off.
Yes OIL was the culprit in this market. Ahead of winter, ahead of more warring in Afghan, ahead of travel season....go figure!!
...
This should be it though folks. If oil didn't start to tank Kat and I would have been very spot on. The dollar is barely still up. It can't break any higher.
Look for major retracement up for oil in the next week. Kind of right on schedule but I didn't think we would have dipped this low before friday."

Contrary to popular belief, oil is not truly fungible, although traders who have never walked up to a pumpjack and touched a nodding donkey do not understand this. Every deposit of oil is different in energy content, viscosity, and chemistry, and has different costs associated with drilling for it and delivering it to a refinery. My wells in the Medicine River unit of west-central Alberta produce different oil than the oil coming out of the Cardium formation or the Bakken (although I don't own anything in the latter). It all has to be sorted out at the refinery and the price adjusted to the West Texas Intermediate standard, just as Europeans adjust their oil to the Brent North Sea standard, Africans to Bonny Light, and the Arabs to Ras Tanura. It is not like gold or silver where one Maple Leaf is the same as the next.

Oil and gas also fluctuate considerably in demand and storage. We are pumping oil because the price is good, but our natural gas wells are throttled back to minimum flow and we are keeping most of it stored underground (Horseshoe Canyon formation, as coal-bed methane). We are postponing fracing and swabbing until prices recover.

Most traders think of petroleum investing as buying/selling stocks of petroleum companies, but that isn't buying oil any more than buying HUI is buying gold or buying silver ETFs is buying the actual metal. True petroleum investment, such as I do, is buying mineral rights or limited-partnership units (part ownership of a group of wells) and receiving the cash flow. The cash flow is not a fixed interest rate but a share in the actual sale of oil/gas, and may fluctuate for reasons that having nothing to do with crude oil futures.

In short (and I admit this is a windy answer), the true petroleum investor doesn't sweat the daily close of oil futures, just as the true silver bug doesn't fret over takedowns by the Wall Street gangsters.

Katwoman
9th December 2009, 14:08
"[I can't find a single article why oil went into such a sell off.
Yes OIL was the culprit in this market. Ahead of winter, ahead of more warring in Afghan, ahead of travel season....go figure!!
...
This should be it though folks. If oil didn't start to tank Kat and I would have been very spot on. The dollar is barely still up. It can't break any higher.
Look for major retracement up for oil in the next week. Kind of right on schedule but I didn't think we would have dipped this low before friday."

Contrary to popular belief, oil is not truly fungible, although traders who have never walked up to a pumpjack and touched a nodding donkey do not understand this. Every deposit of oil is different in energy content, viscosity, and chemistry, and has different costs associated with drilling for it and delivering it to a refinery. My wells in the Medicine River unit of west-central Alberta produce different oil than the oil coming out of the Cardium formation or the Bakken (although I don't own anything in the latter). It all has to be sorted out at the refinery and the price adjusted to the West Texas Intermediate standard, just as Europeans adjust their oil to the Brent North Sea standard, Africans to Bonny Light, and the Arabs to Ras Tanura. It is not like gold or silver where one Maple Leaf is the same as the next.

Oil and gas also fluctuate considerably in demand and storage. We are pumping oil because the price is good, but our natural gas wells are throttled back to minimum flow and we are keeping most of it stored underground (Horseshoe Canyon formation, as coal-bed methane). We are postponing fracing and swabbing until prices recover.

Most traders think of petroleum investing as buying/selling stocks of petroleum companies, but that isn't buying oil any more than buying HUI is buying gold or buying silver ETFs is buying the actual metal. True petroleum investment, such as I do, is buying mineral rights or limited-partnership units (part ownership of a group of wells) and receiving the cash flow. The cash flow is not a fixed interest rate but a share in the actual sale of oil/gas, and may fluctuate for reasons that having nothing to do with crude oil futures.

In short (and I admit this is a windy answer), the true petroleum investor doesn't sweat the daily close of oil futures, just as the true silver bug doesn't fret over takedowns by the Wall Street gangsters.

You cannot argue with a Canadian or an Alaskan when it comes to oil!!

MasterQ
9th December 2009, 14:29
lol I'll have to agree with Kat.

Sorry Dale...panic keyboard attack doh!

-Q

Mighty Moose
9th December 2009, 14:44
Hey, Dale, it appears you've been in & around the oil field a long-time, so I bet you've probably worked on a drilling or service rig somewhere in your past. I had the displeasure of working on a drilling rig (it was a light triple) as a roughneck. It was one of the hardest jobs I ever had & the tool push was a real hard-ass. We were drilling for gas in the area between Red Deer & Rocky Mountain House. The pay was incredible, but you earned every penny of it.

I don't think people realize what it takes to heat their homes & fuel their vehicles. It's just one more thing people take for granted & only complain about the prices- the same with food laid out so conveniently on a grocery shelf. Anyway, it was an enlightening experience, but I wouldn't want to do it again.

slvr
9th December 2009, 15:33
Seems like a pattern... Now we can move to a solid 19 or 20.

akak
9th December 2009, 15:34
Hey, Dale, it appears you've been in & around the oil field a long-time, so I bet you've probably worked on a drilling or service rig somewhere in your past. I had the displeasure of working on a drilling rig (it was a light triple) as a roughneck. It was one of the hardest jobs I ever had & the tool push was a real hard-ass. We were drilling for gas in the area between Red Deer & Rocky Mountain House. The pay was incredible, but you earned every penny of it.

I don't think people realize what it takes to heat their homes & fuel their vehicles. It's just one more thing people take for granted & only complain about the prices- the same with food laid out so conveniently on a grocery shelf. Anyway, it was an enlightening experience, but I wouldn't want to do it again.


MM, I have never had the pleasure of working on a rig myself here in Alaska, but I know guys who have, and to a person they repeated just what you said above --- it was not only the toughest job they ever had, it was the toughest job they could imagine having! One friend, on his very first day on the job, watched another guy get his hand amputated by a falling pipe --- and that was by no means an unprecedented event. I applied for and received a job as a mud logger, but then declined taking it after talking to a couple of other guys who had had the same job, and who told me that the environment and around-the-clock nature of the position would end up aging me 5 years for every one I worked at it. Not being a person who deals well with sleep deprivation and continually erratic schedules and sleeping, I knew it was not for me.

Katwoman
9th December 2009, 15:52
Nice to see silver back up to its TA predicted support level confirming the importance of $17.40 in this market. Hopefully the shorts are out of bullets now and the rally that begin yesterday will gain some much needed legs and run us back up so we can close out this year at or near the previous highs.

As for everyone who managed to buy in at the bottom of the dip congratulations on a nice score:)

Mighty Moose
9th December 2009, 17:51
MM, I have never had the pleasure of working on a rig myself here in Alaska, but I know guys who have, and to a person they repeated just what you said above --- it was not only the toughest job they ever had, it was the toughest job they could imagine having! One friend, on his very first day on the job, watched another guy get his hand amputated by a falling pipe --- and that was by no means an unprecedented event. I applied for and received a job as a mud logger, but then declined taking it after talking to a couple of other guys who had had the same job, and who told me that the environment and around-the-clock nature of the position would end up aging me 5 years for every one I worked at it. Not being a person who deals well with sleep deprivation and continually erratic schedules and sleeping, I knew it was not for me.

I was only 2 wks into the job & I witnessed the aftermath of a catasrophic event. I came onto day shift & seen the wreckage on our rig. I guess the replacement driller from another rig lost braking control, somehow (some said he was a cokehead), & the whole boom & kelly came crashing down on the drilling floor from near the top of the derrick & almost killed everyone. One guy told me he felt some of the heavy steel cable which which alone weighs tonnes brush the back of his leg while he turned & bolted. Another guy simply jumped off the drilling floor & slid down the V-chute & banged up his knee. Everyone made it out alive, though, but were badly shaken, since this would of been like a schoolbus or cement truck almost dropped on your head from about 70 feet or more.

Relayer
10th December 2009, 00:46
We have this week the treasury auctions. And, as with the previous auctions, the dollar staged a strong rally. The timing of course is not coincidental, as the pms have been rallying very stongly. With most T/A's screaming way overbought, the plunge protection team unfortunately used that as a lever to take the pm's down a bit harder than past auctions. Todays 10yr auction did not go off as well as expected (higher yields were demanded). Tomorrow the 30 yr treasury auction finishes the schedule for this week and could also show an uptick in yield (higher long term rates). If the past is of any significance, the pms should begin to recover soon as the dollar rally typically has lasted about 5-8 days. Today is day 6 and it is quite possible that the dollar topped out today. Here is a link to a 2 month dollar chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p17047156573

LETMYSILVERGO
10th December 2009, 01:23
MM, I have never had the pleasure of working on a rig myself here in Alaska, but I know guys who have, and to a person they repeated just what you said above --- it was not only the toughest job they ever had, it was the toughest job they could imagine having! One friend, on his very first day on the job, watched another guy get his hand amputated by a falling pipe --- and that was by no means an unprecedented event. I applied for and received a job as a mud logger, but then declined taking it after talking to a couple of other guys who had had the same job, and who told me that the environment and around-the-clock nature of the position would end up aging me 5 years for every one I worked at it. Not being a person who deals well with sleep deprivation and continually erratic schedules and sleeping, I knew it was not for me.

Here IS A LINE FROM A BOOK written 70 years or 90 years ago about living with Eskimos and working in harsh conditions... This man had been there a long time.
" He no longer found wonder and fasination in uneccecary toil and struggle "

{Please excuse my spelling. In 1957 my school tried an experiment in teaching spelling-- they did not teach phonics, but some kind of SIGHT LEARNING--- obviously it did not work, they gave it up after 4 years, & I am living prrof that they fialed.

valerb
10th December 2009, 02:34
No one had any problems associating the rising price of Gold and Silver when the dollar was dropping. So why all of the talk about manipulation and wonderment when the dollar jumps from 74 up to 76 and Gold and Silver take a hit. There's no mystery here, it's what's suppose to occur when the dollar rises, just like when it falls. This just goes to show, there is no disconnect between PM's and the dollar. If the dollar some how manages to hit 80 again, look for triple digits in Gold and lower Silver prices for awhile. You want some technical analysis, you just got it!!!!

Mighty Moose
10th December 2009, 02:41
Quote:
Originally Posted by akak
MM, I have never had the pleasure of working on a rig myself here in Alaska, but I know guys who have, and to a person they repeated just what you said above --- it was not only the toughest job they ever had, it was the toughest job they could imagine having! One friend, on his very first day on the job, watched another guy get his hand amputated by a falling pipe --- and that was by no means an unprecedented event. I applied for and received a job as a mud logger, but then declined taking it after talking to a couple of other guys who had had the same job, and who told me that the environment and around-the-clock nature of the position would end up aging me 5 years for every one I worked at it. Not being a person who deals well with sleep deprivation and continually erratic schedules and sleeping, I knew it was not for me.


Here IS A LINE FROM A BOOK written 70 years or 90 years ago about living with Eskimos and working in harsh conditions... This man had been there a long time.
" He no longer found wonder and fasination in uneccecary toil and struggle "

{Please excuse my spelling. In 1957 my school tried an experiment in teaching spelling-- they did not teach phonics, but some kind of SIGHT LEARNING--- obviously it did not work, they gave it up after 4 years, & I am living prrof that they fialed.

I've, also, lived & worked above the 60th parallel in the Northwest Territories which is up in the nothern part of Canada, so I identify with Akak living in Alaska & that guy from that old book. My point is that your quote from that book hit me right in the mind, but I don't think that I ever "'...found wonder & fascination in unnecessary toil & struggle'" to begin with, mostly just torment.

All I know is that life's harsh little adventures have started to wear me out & I aint up for too many more. Ridin on the 'the silver train' will be my last one which I firmly believe will prove to be the ultimate adventure.

P.S. Don't worry about your spelling, your unusual humor in your posts more than makes up for it which I truly appreciate.:)

Katwoman
10th December 2009, 06:10
The dollar lost a little ground last night while silver held like rock around $17.40. Today is setting up to be the legitimate turning point. If this thing can gain legs we should start to see PMs rally.

Roonbox
10th December 2009, 06:52
I hope your right - im getting a little nervous to be honest - im considering stepping to the sidelines for the rest of the year -

MasterQ
10th December 2009, 07:03
I hope your right - im getting a little nervous to be honest - im considering stepping to the sidelines for the rest of the year -

Think about it.

How many others will be reacting the same?

Emotion plays alot in this market. You have to stand your ground.

For example: I stopped trading after August because I saw a double dip in prices. I thought perhaps we were going to show some resemblence of 2008 but hopefully not so severe.

Guess what happened....SILVER TOOK OFF!

I had another chance when it dipped in the 16's. Many were nervous then as well. This correction now is a bit deeper but not by much and it is after the huge run off. These are called retracements and in a bull market you don't want to see more than 50%. (19.47 - 17.40 is about 62% retracement of the 19.47-16.12 channel so this correction should be more than over)

Stand your ground. Let Friday come and look to Mon/Tues to get back in if you need more reassurance.

I'm pretty sure we won't see anything like yesterday's dip again.

I'm sticking to my guns about sideways action. This weeks losses taken out next week and the last 2 weeks will be spent getting the "legs" Kat has so eloquently put it.

Good luck to us all!!

-Q

Roonbox
10th December 2009, 07:17
Cheers Q -

Thats the kind of Pep talk I needed.

I too have missed both of the major rallies this year and the last weeks action has me questioning whether theres another week in this correction..

Im sticking to my guns till friday at the least -

Katwoman
10th December 2009, 09:38
$17.40 is holding up like a line drawn in the sand by a PM militia. I am gonna go out on a little limb at this point and say the up trend in the USD and down trend in PMs is officially over. The dollar is in decline from its high of 76.3 during this same period which is important because it signals that money has moved into other vehicles but just not back into PMs. This is consistent with PMs having hit year end predictions and being a little over bought relative to other vehicles which might currently offer investors better short-term returns. In fact people might just be spending some of their profits on Christmas presents. Aside from the market manipulation we witnessed most if not all of this action is entirely consistent with my TA which give me additional confidence in what I see unfolding right now.

But since I am not known for my short-term TA work I will now defer to MQ et al who are much more astute than I am while I go do my own Christmas shopping and send out my holiday cards.

FYI when I said I was leaving a while ago I meant it but when I saw this pullback happening I felt compelled to chime in. I honestly think things are going to be getting worse before they get better and that people should be prepared.

Roonbox
10th December 2009, 10:07
for the past 2 days we have nosedived at this point in the the day - lets hope it doesnt again -

MasterQ
10th December 2009, 10:36
$17.40 is holding up like a line drawn in the sand by a PM militia. I am gonna go out on a little limb at this point and say the up trend in the USD and down trend in PMs is officially over. The dollar is in decline from its high of 76.3 during this same period which is important because it signals that money has moved into other vehicles but just not back into PMs. This is consistent with PMs having hit year end predictions and being a little over bought relative to other vehicles which might currently offer investors better short-term returns. In fact people might just be spending some of their profits on Christmas presents. Aside from the market manipulation we witnessed most if not all of this action is entirely consistent with my TA which give me additional confidence in what I see unfolding right now.

But since I am not known for my short-term TA work I will now defer to MQ et al who are much more astute than I am while I go do my own Christmas shopping and send out my holiday cards.

FYI when I said I was leaving a while ago I meant it but when I saw this pullback happening I felt compelled to chime in. I honestly think things are going to be getting worse before they get better and that people should be prepared.

Well on the extreme side my TA showed a hiccup at 16.95. I'm still positive we shouldn't have to go this far. If...and I mean a BIG IF we touch anything in the 16's don't balk...BUY!!!

I don't want to see our low from yesterday taken out.

17.20 seems to be the bottom for now and it is more than likely in.

We need to get through tomorrow higher so any sideways or retest of the 17.12 low has a less likely chance of repeat Mon/Tues.

This being said, once we are through the chutes Tuesday there is no looking back.

Enjoy the holiday xmas silver everyone!!

-Q

slvr
10th December 2009, 10:55
I feel the same way now about PM's as I did when they were much lower ... so, to me, I feel I am still in the best investments. Sure, it sucks to see the relatively quick gains suffer, but still nothing has changed the fundamentals.

I feel that the lower it goes now, the higher it will be able to move later.

Jake
10th December 2009, 11:10
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Jake
10th December 2009, 11:13
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Jake
10th December 2009, 11:20
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Jake
10th December 2009, 11:32
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lacaprup
10th December 2009, 11:40
So...It was an absolute lock that 17.40 was the bottom, but now that silver hit 17.12, that bottom is in?

So if 16.75 hits, that's the bottom?
Oh wait, I forgot about that pesky false alarm...
Ok...lets see... Maybe you could give us like 10 more different guesses so that maybe one of those guesses could be right---then you could say you made a good call and only refer to that one guess that was right?

I think I might be able to do this a good as you---Let me try:

I'm predicting, using my mysteriously proprietary TA, that the following "bottoms" in silver will occur:

17, 16.90, 16.80,16.70,16.60,16.50,16.40,16.30,16.20 and 16---If those predictions turn out to be wrong, I'll Use 16, 15.90, 15.80,15.70,15.60,15.50,15.40,15.30,15.20 and 15.

This is fun---Can I become the new Guru in here?

ROFL!!!

Too funny!

No matter what you say with you predicitions, I said I'm waiting for $16, and I intend to wait. I think things might fall in my direction as I expect a silver bottom right around the time I should be getting my tax returns back. I've got a lot of write offs this year too!

Jake
10th December 2009, 13:00
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Katwoman
10th December 2009, 13:11
I stand by my TA prediction that $17.40 is the support level not the "bottom" so please don't misquote me to satisfy your self indulgent sense of humor. The market continues to confirm this level as support today. I would not change my prediction if it was at $17.80 anymore than I would if it is at 17.20. In fact, the longer we hold in this price range the more confirmation we have of the TA being correct and that this pullback is over.

MasterQ
10th December 2009, 13:46
I stand by my TA prediction that $17.40 is the support level not the "bottom" so please don't misquote me to satisfy your self indulgent sense of humor. The market continues to confirm this level as support today. I would not change my prediction if it was at $17.80 anymore than I would if it is at 17.20. In fact, the longer we hold in this price range the more confirmation we have of the TA being correct and that this pullback is over.

Kat..you know and I know it isn't worth responding to his Merrie Melodies.

17.20 is showing as a successful bottom so far. Lets hope it maintains it.

17.40 is still a great call though I didn't think we would have dived under 17.80.

If it did or does blast through 16.95 then I have no more TA on it as the charts show a full retracement to the 16.12 break.

I don't think it should go this far for many reasons you outlined and blanketing bloomberg's media outlet.

Spending more to get us out of this recession has worked so well so far I just can't fathom it working in the short term or through the TARP extension alone.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

Jake
10th December 2009, 13:49
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Katwoman
10th December 2009, 14:26
Ok...I can play this game too---I thought Silver held very well at 18.50---It looked like support and It looked like it held like a "rock"---now that silver has touched 17.12...I'm firm in my conviction that 18.50 was great support.

Hey...that was fun!---I just predicted what will happen by babbling around about what the price did in the past!

I had no idea TA was this easy to use!

I stand corrected Kat---You have a gift here and I sure wouldn't want to question it---Also, Q has this same ability. He predicts stuff, Doesn't post any of his trades...and when he's wrong, he just adjusts his predictions...Again, and again, and again!

I have to hand it to all of you "predictors" including Main, What is he saying now?...was it that the market was going to drop to 9800---Oh wait, that was a false alarm...maybe that it was going to top at 10500, or was it 10300?...rally to 11200?....I can't keep up, maybe I need another Neck Brace.
http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/dailypix/2005/Mar/06/ln05f_b.jpg

Go back and check my TA smarty pants and then you show me where I have been wrong. I think my success at predicting where the market is headed and the respect I have from the other members of this speaks volumes to may skills as an analyst. I predicted the top of the market and this pullback before it occurred and that we would find support at $17.40 and I was spot on.

SilverJim
10th December 2009, 14:51
All Yall and very entertaining with this TA stuff. Here's my problem. I have read alot about the silver and gold markets for many years and am convicned they are manipulated by the US government via JPMorgan and the like with complicity from the the CFTC. Now they don't actively do something every day but periodically on a constant basis. Of course, it is also interdependent to some degree on the USD and stuff (also manipulated) but you get the picture. Perhaps I am wrong but I doubt it. Given that, TA will only work as a tool whenever they are not actively manipulating. When they do act, TA ain't worth ****. PM's will move up but breakouts are hamstrung until something else happens. I believe the true large moves will come only through a breaking various pieces of their stanglehold and will likely happen in stages in my view.

Jake
10th December 2009, 14:54
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akak
10th December 2009, 15:00
So...I really want to get this straight Kat...You really believe you have a device or devices that predict the future price of silver? If this is really true...are you mortgaging everything your own to buy silver now? If I knew...ABOSOLUTELY KNEW...that silver would climb to 19 in a month, or whatever, I'd morgage my house to buy SLV right now and just wait until I made a lot of money.

...And if not, why not? You said silver will be higher in the future BECAUSE OF TA...therefore, you must have a "predicting device" like a crystal Ball...Like...Well...Maybe Like Professor Marvel!
Have you seen any Crowned Heads of Europe?

Or do you believe that you are trying to do the best you can as a mortal and GUESS? If so, why not admit it?...You and Q and Main...ARE um...Guessing!! What's wrong with that?

What's wrong with admitting that you are no better than the rest of us at guessing?---Why not come clean with your predictions?...When have they been right other than your prediction that Silver will rise over time because fundamentally, our country is devaluing our dollar by printing zillions of worthless paper?

Other than that fundamental, why not admit that there is no machine or technique or device or mysterious powers that allow anyone to predict the future?


Well, to be honest Jake, it could very well be that TA does NOT predict anything with perfect accuracy, but increases the odds of making the right "guess" more often. It doesn't have to be 100% accurate to be useful, just correct slightly more often than it is wrong. You seem to be saying that if it is not infallible and 100% accurate then it is worthless, but there is a whole range of possibilities in between those two extremes.

Katwoman
10th December 2009, 15:23
So...I really want to get this straight Kat...You really believe you have a device or devices that predict the future price of silver? If this is really true...are you mortgaging everything your own to buy silver now? If I knew...ABOSOLUTELY KNEW...that silver would climb to 19 in a month, or whatever, I'd morgage my house to buy SLV right now and just wait until I made a lot of money.

...And if not, why not? You said silver will be higher in the future BECAUSE OF TA...therefore, you must have a "predicting device" like a crystal Ball...Like...Well...Maybe Like Professor Marvel!
Have you seen any Crowned Heads of Europe?

Or do you believe that you are trying to do the best you can as a mortal and GUESS? If so, why not admit it?...You and Q and Main...ARE um...Guessing!! What's wrong with that?

What's wrong with admitting that you are no better than the rest of us at guessing?---Why not come clean with your predictions?...When have they been right other than your prediction that Silver will rise over time because fundamentally, our country is devaluing our dollar by printing zillions of worthless paper?

Other than that fundamental, why not admit that there is no machine or technique or device or mysterious powers that allow anyone to predict the future?

You are right I cannot predict the future but I can look at the current market price, past market prices, related these to past dollar prices and interpret this in terms of the fundamentals and make an informed decisions about what the market may do next. This is a far cry from a guess which would be no different than flipping a coin and buying if its heads and selling if its tails. Check my posts and you will find that I predicted the top before the pullback occured based on TA and I predicted $17.40 as a point of strong support based on my TA. Both these predictions have proved to be correct so, either I am a darn good guesser, really lucky or I have been doing my home work with a little more due diligence than anyone else.

MQ disagreed with me many times this fall ask him what he thinks my skills as a market analist today based on my past performance.

You can look at it anyway you want Jake but the history shows I have been spot on.

With that I am going to take the rest of the year off from studying this market and let you take the helm for awhile.

Jake
10th December 2009, 15:29
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Katwoman
10th December 2009, 15:33
But you must define a time frame.
If you use some mysteriously "accurate," "tested", TA Indicators and have, as a result, guessed right for any time frame, this proves nothing. I've been right 10, even 22 times in a row with what I've believed to be TA in the past before I realized how easy it is to become hooked on a belief that you've "found the Answer". Unfortunately, in the grand scheme of random possibilities, TA can be deceiving as it may appear to be "enhancing" your ability to guess better, but in actual practice is only fooling you into thinking that shorter time frames can be translated into longer ones.

Eventually, the "trader" is fooled into thinking he's "got something" and will then pontificate how "right" he is about this new found method. Unfortunately, random chance has it's way of going against you regardless of how you tweek the method and justify your thinking 10, or even 15 times in a row.

The reality still remains. There are too many influences, including manipulation, that affect the markets that make past analysis "systems" obsolete for predicting what will happen in the future accurate enough.

This dosn't mean that someone can't make money positioning themselves based on sound information in the markets. Example: "Fundamentally, the govt. is printing gobs of money thereby devaluing the dollar---this enhances gold and silver prices positively over time.

Hell, I'm making money in metals because I bought silver in the past. However, if I were to say, "Silver will go up in the next few months", this is only a guess. If I'm right, I can't attribute that right guess to anything except that the GUESS was right.

Think of it this way: The direction of the 5 ball positioned in the 3rd place from the left in the rack 2 rows in front of the 7 ball cannot be accurately predicted no matter how many times you try to make your cue ball hit the exact same spot on the 1 ball at the exact same speed. The influences of the many interactions at the moment of the break are just too unpredictable even with analysis from the past.

If you use TA with no regard for the news or fundamentals you will fail. The reason I am more accurate is that I do not rely on TA alone.

Jake
10th December 2009, 15:37
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beach miner
10th December 2009, 16:11
Silver can and will increase in price and value. Once an Honest Physical Shortage is experienced. It is more than a Safe Haven, a way of Holding Value. It is A Profit Making Machine. It is being held down by the Imaginary power of Fiat Paper--Dollar Index, and Future's Market. At the Present time Silver's price is easily held steady by the; Amount Consumed is EQUAL to the amount being produced. When this BALANCE is TIPPED in favor of CONSUMED by Millions of buyers---The Price of Silver in Fiat Dollars Will Appreciate EXPONENTIALLY Faster than Fiat Papers Devaluation. A Great Profit Will Be Made by those who hold PHYSICAL. See Ya At The Top.

JesterJay
10th December 2009, 16:56
I must be ill cuz Jake makes sense here.
NO ONE can predict the future. Except probably Jesus and my Mom.
But I do think there is a LITTLE something to TA. Before I started to read Kat, et al, I wouldn't have given a gram for TA opinion of ANYONE.
But, I gotta say, I think Kat may have a little bit of an idea of what's coming.
In general, perhaps, but that's better than just a GUESS.
I guess that's all I have to say about that,
JesterJay



So...I really want to get this straight Kat...You really believe you have a device or devices that predict the future price of silver? If this is really true...are you mortgaging everything your own to buy silver now? If I knew...ABOSOLUTELY KNEW...that silver would climb to 19 in a month, or whatever, I'd morgage my house to buy SLV right now and just wait until I made a lot of money.

...And if not, why not? You said silver will be higher in the future BECAUSE OF TA...therefore, you must have a "predicting device" like a crystal Ball...Like...Well...Maybe Like Professor Marvel!
Have you seen any Crowned Heads of Europe?

Or do you believe that you are trying to do the best you can as a mortal and GUESS? If so, why not admit it?...You and Q and Main...ARE um...Guessing!! What's wrong with that?

What's wrong with admitting that you are no better than the rest of us at guessing?---Why not come clean with your predictions?...When have they been right other than your prediction that Silver will rise over time because fundamentally, our country is devaluing our dollar by printing zillions of worthless paper?

Other than that fundamental, why not admit that there is no machine or technique or device or mysterious powers that allow anyone to predict the future?

JesterJay
10th December 2009, 17:00
Don't fall for this one.
I think she hypnotized him.
He used to tell Kat that she was full of kitty litter.
It was almost funny. Now he just says, "yes dear".
I think many here have worthwhile things to say.
And a few are just annoying, mostly,
JesterJay




MQ disagreed with me many times this fall ask him what he thinks my skills as a market analist today based on my past performance.

Relayer
10th December 2009, 17:23
next week is triple witching week. Routinely this is the quarterly time period when gold/silver makes their correction and start to move higher going into the next quarter.

We may have already had that correction.

hekura
10th December 2009, 18:07
What's wrong with admitting that you are no better than the rest of us at guessing?---Why not come clean with your predictions?...When have they been right other than your prediction that Silver will rise over time because fundamentally, our country is devaluing our dollar by printing zillions of worthless paper?

Other than that fundamental, why not admit that there is no machine or technique or device or mysterious powers that allow anyone to predict the future?

...I've read this thread a couple of times to determine where all of the resentment is generated. I've failed, really, at determining what "event" caused such an obvious need on the part of BOTH sides of this equation, for denigrating the other. It's obvious that all parties here (for the most part), represent intelligent consideration of global financial policies. The fact that TA falls short of, or far surpasses price targets selected through an infinite variety of premises...merely indicates something we are ALL aware of. TA works best when the effect of fundamental statistics and situational sentiment are combined to define an array of variables. Each variable may be assigned "predictable" values, based upon past performance. Naturally, TA will be difficult, to say the least, when implemented within a "manipulated" environment.

Obliquely, TA probably doesn't deserve such an intense, personally insulting debate.

I have "lurked" here for several years, now...and I remember the initial posts of everyone who is contributing to this thread. In my opinion, SSF is pretty much an "ego" soup. There are powerful personalities in here, and while many of us step back from the forum, at times, until the pissing matches cease...others choose to selectively assassinate dissenting opinions, as if they have a responsibility to do so. Ultimately, the only true responsibility I see, as it relates to forum members...is for them to de-fuse their rhetoric so that points are made without needing to vilify anybody else.

This applies to "groups", as well. This forum occasionally explores the traditional "Left-Right" paradigm...and proponents of either of these "traditional" philosophies, too-often miss the topic of discussion, abandoning thoughtful consideration in favor of character assassination, "en masse".

I suspect that everyone engaged with this thread understands that TA, no matter how well constructed, will always miss the mark when the population of "defined" variables diminishes. Lately, there are many variables either unknown or unknowable, which are combining to form some very surprising results. "Traditional" TA is failing to meet benchmarks that have been established over a period of decades. The fact that "traditional" TA is hard-pressed to explain market behavior today, simply means to me that "traditional" is no longer appropriate for describing this data set.

I greatly value the heartfelt attempts at technical analysis, engaged by others. I too see that for some, criticism and analysis of their analyses, seems to trigger violent defense of their positions. Some TA still holds great value, even if it is sometimes tempered with the analyst's "margin-of-error". While such a "margin-of-error" might seem ludicrous within this market, it may represent the best inference possible...considering the wide range of hidden interventions that may be taking place behind the scenes.

Even if someone's TA turns out to be completely wrong...I do not believe that their interpretation of the data was intended to mislead. Similarly, I suspect that continuously successful market interpretations are equally unexpected, only providing useless data, after the fact. I'm a BIG boy, now, and I accept full responsibility for my decisions. I am grateful for TA provided by others who might better understand the financial environment, than I do. At least there are a few brave souls who are willing to submit their analysis for others to review. I figure that a person who blindly believes what others are saying, probably deserves to learn a difficult lesson in accepting responsibility for their own actions.

j

MasterQ
10th December 2009, 18:25
Lately, there are many variables either unknown or unknowable, which are combining to form some very surprising results. "Traditional" TA is failing to meet benchmarks that have been established over a period of decades. The fact that "traditional" TA is hard-pressed to explain market behavior today, simply means to me that "traditional" is no longer appropriate for describing this data set.

This is why I left for a bit. It has been very frustrating for what has worked in the better of percentile to see this in full effect.


I greatly value the heartfelt attempts at technical analysis, engaged by others. I too see that for some, criticism and analysis of their analyses, seems to trigger violent defense of their positions. Some TA still holds great value, even if it is sometimes tempered with the analyst's "margin-of-error". While such a "margin-of-error" might seem ludicrous within this market, it may represent the best inference possible...considering the wide range of hidden interventions that may be taking place behind the scenes.

I won't speak for others but this is exactly what I am trying to accomplish. If it helps to put another perspective or at least add to you and yours due diligence then so be it. I just like to help when I can. If I'm wrong most of the time then I have sealed my own fate. I'm not being paid for this and I don't see anyone here about to commit hari kari unless I say something so let us not make this so damn irresponsible.


Even if someone's TA turns out to be completely wrong...I do not believe that their interpretation of the data was intended to mislead. Similarly, I suspect that continuously successful market interpretations are equally unexpected, only providing useless data, after the fact. I'm a BIG boy, now, and I accept full responsibility for my decisions. I am grateful for TA provided by others who might better understand the financial environment, than I do. At least there are a few brave souls who are willing to submit their analysis for others to review. I figure that a person who blindly believes what others are saying, probably deserves to learn a difficult lesson in accepting responsibility for their own actions.

As is written and in many others sigs. If you look at forums like these for the sure thing, the absolute bet, the crystal ball future then you have mislead yourself. In fact if this is such a danger then don't ask anyone their opinion or choose to visit a forum where you will be bombarded with people's opinions. Most of the time they will be different from yours and for what works for some people is not your place to crap on. You can show your disagreement, hell free speech rules, but having an agenda to stir negative emotions on a constant basis.....well....there has been a word in the internet communities for that.

Thank you for your very intelligent analysis of the situation.

Hopefully things can cool back down.

Strong opinions alike :)

-Q

hekura
10th December 2009, 18:50
I'm with you. It's really, "All Good", with respect to whatever contributions others make...since there really can't be too many viewpoints. I collect pearls of wisdom daily, from this forum. I've been working on a TA method involving chicken blood, "straw"-men, and Gregorian Chants. It's not quite ready, yet...I think there's still a problem with timing: full-moon, 1/4, 1/2, or new. Until I get it figured out, I will still look to you and Kat for solid info.

j

mountainmurph
10th December 2009, 19:41
So...I really want to get this straight Kat...You really believe you have a device or devices that predict the future price of silver? If this is really true...are you mortgaging everything your own to buy silver now? If I knew...ABOSOLUTELY KNEW...that silver would climb to 19 in a month, or whatever, I'd morgage my house to buy SLV right now and just wait until I made a lot of money.

...And if not, why not? You said silver will be higher in the future BECAUSE OF TA...therefore, you must have a "predicting device" like a crystal Ball...Like...Well...Maybe Like Professor Marvel!
Have you seen any Crowned Heads of Europe?

Or do you believe that you are trying to do the best you can as a mortal and GUESS? If so, why not admit it?...You and Q and Main...ARE um...Guessing!! What's wrong with that?

What's wrong with admitting that you are no better than the rest of us at guessing?---Why not come clean with your predictions?...When have they been right other than your prediction that Silver will rise over time because fundamentally, our country is devaluing our dollar by printing zillions of worthless paper?

Other than that fundamental, why not admit that there is no machine or technique or device or mysterious powers that allow anyone to predict the future?



Jake, do you believe in ta? You don't? OK WE GET IT. You lost your ass when you thought you'd discovered the secret formula. Now under the guise of helping people [ it looks more like harrassment ] you point out every flaw. Well maybe the reason that ta works for some people is they use it as an indicater or a guideline and don't go all in like it was Texas holdem.
How many times and different ways do we have to read you don't agree?

On another note JJ, what does your mom think about silver?

silverheartbone
11th December 2009, 07:22
We have now broken through support for silver. I am a little shocked and cannot even predict what will happen next since this movement is contraindicated and defies logic, TA, and the fundamentals for PMs.

On the other hand who cares buy the big dip :)

I do not see what you see.

Katwoman
11th December 2009, 07:51
I do not see what you see.

You need to look at the chart for the year to see it better.

cabtrom
11th December 2009, 08:17
Is it just me or does it now feel like the "silence before the storm" on both gold and silver? Its almost creepy.

Longhaul
11th December 2009, 10:56
Creepy good for buying. I'm not selling anytime soon, let it crash to $9 again, I sure did like picking up silver for $10.95 last year.

Head fake after head fake is all we're sure of really, silver and gold will not go out of business anytime soon or EVER so buy like hell if we get the chance to.

If the interest rates stay the same the dollar will eventually go down, QE will only steepen.

If interest rates rise the bond yields will force us print money like it's going out of style just the same.

The dollar will eventually be caught in the crossfire.

The building is still on fire folks......just because they have murals up over the windows so you don't see the smoke doesn't mean you cant feel the heat through the floor.

Proceed with caution, but keep moving in a single file line please. When the dollar finally blows, it's going to be like this........

.....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0PPRIPIjHs

Sorry if this video is shocking, but way more than 200 are going to die once folks head for the exits all at once.

slvr
11th December 2009, 11:01
Is it just me or does it now feel like the "silence before the storm" on both gold and silver? Its almost creepy.
I feel the same way

What is Truth?
11th December 2009, 11:34
My wife was right. She called silver to dip below $17.00 today and it has. :D

silverheartbone
12th December 2009, 07:37
You need to look at the chart for the year to see it better.

http://www.blackwebportal.com/nuforums/fileattachments/1yearsilverchannel%2Epng

Looking at things from that slightly different perspective,
one would wait for a lower price
which under normal circumstances should come.

However, with the imminent dollar collapse, I ain't waiting.

If I really believed in dollar deflation, then I'd wait.

But with globalism.... think about the ramifications of a devalued dollar.

Yes, real prices could fall precipitously and still cost more FRNs.

Ugly I tell you.

Katwoman
12th December 2009, 08:07
The problem with $14.40 as you correctly realize is that during a breakout we are unlikely to pullback that far. You are not the only one who does not think it will go to $14.40 on this pullback and so the market will not behave as if it should. As I have said before I base my predictions on my TA, the fundamentals and the news. The fact the we found support at $17.40 permits us to reject the null hypothesis which says there is no support at $17.40. If you study the silver charts more closely in the context of the USD index charts you will see how the two are working together. All that said, I too have recently posted that we could go lower in fact we could get into the 13s if things got really crazy and the dollar index rallied to 80. This latter scenario is more consistent with what you are seeing but again during breakout in a bull market this deep of a pullback is much "less likely" to occur.

MasterQ
12th December 2009, 08:17
The problem with $14.40 as you correctly realize is that during a breakout we are unlikely to pullback that far. You are not the only one who does not think it will go to $14.40 on this pullback and so the market will not behave as if it should. As I have said before I base my predictions on my TA, the fundamentals and the news. The fact the we found support at $17.40 permits us to reject the null hypothesis which says there is no support at $17.40. If you study the silver charts more closely in the context of the USD index charts you will see how the two are working together. All that said, I too have recently posted that we could go lower in fact we could get into the 13s if things got really crazy and the dollar index rallied to 80. This latter scenario is more consistent with what you are seeing but again during breakout in a bull market this deep of a pullback is much "less likely" to occur.

Kat,

I understand your need to look at everything and I certainly respect it, but even in our sorted past of disagreements I will have to chime in again here.

I still think 17.40-17.50 were great entry points. We did dip and take out the prior ridiculous "oil inventory" drop with the "consumer confidence" numbers. So what is left?

If we are talking doom and gloom scenarios I would stop putting out things like 13 and 14 right now. That is too extreme and it seems your feeling the same though the message is getting a bit mudded.

At worst on this leg look to the 100 day which is sitting around 16.50's. I still feel that is unlikely as well because we tested 16.92 and shot back to 17.18. (finishing in the 17.13's futures)

See silver doesn't like the 16's anymore and feels it is a bad prom date. :P

3 more business days to confirm the dollar's rally and the silvers short term buying opportunity lock. Not with Relayer's "witching week" prediction.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

SilverLite
14th December 2009, 01:42
I'm even more glad I bought my Christmas stash on Saturday... :)

MasterQ
14th December 2009, 06:36
I'm even more glad I bought my Christmas stash on Saturday... :)

Come on 17.68!

We need to break above and hold to close to continue the swing back up!

Looks like 17.20 is holding as the bottom.

That damn 16.92 could scare anyone.

Seeing a break in the upward momentum of the dollar is helping this along.

In all fairness, the dollar needs to find its bottom as well.

I think a repeat of 2008 should be sufficient but anything lower certainly isn't necessary for PM profits. It has to demonstrate it can still hold its stance as a value during hard times.

It is like when a child acts up and you need to put them in time out. The lessons of over spending one's self and getting into contracts they really should have never had gotten into need to be learned. The US and yes more particularly the Wall Street heads got all fat and didn't realize or felt they were covered enough to do those dirty "deeds".

A "dust settling" event will begin 2010 and "real" numbers of reduced unemployment should creep in towards the end of the year. Real Estate will start to slowly come back the next 2-3 years and hopefully we can be out of heavy war spending efforts in the next 1-2 years.

This isn't going to be fast and it certainly can get ugly before it gets pretty folks.

Silver and Gold will see new highs as expected by all these events but as I have said before, please be careful as to reasons why and not trying to get rich.

Hedge yourselves against inflation and the like but do not cheer the demise of our beloved dollar. The asshats in the FED demonstrate a lack of care with it but we the people can bring some much needed reliability on it slowly but surely. I wish I had a blueprint as to how but I certainly know we can show through resistance of government spending us out of these hairy situations by means Kat and others have suggested. Write/Call your senators etc. and join in the causes Ron Paul has started to get things back the way "we the people" want them.

Sorry for the soap box but I feel compelled to help keep perspective.

Things are going to get real exciting for PM's and we need to all keep our heads and not help create the next bubble.

Good luck to us all!!

-Q