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main1event
8th December 2009, 14:14
I think we are very close to the bottom here. While its entirely possible that gold could fall to 1070 or so, it might be just about time to start buying. I'd wait for just a little more selling before I bought either Silver or gold. I still think Silver could get to 17.25.

If gold does fall below 1070.00, then I believe silver could hit 16.50. Not much when you are buying bullion but when buying stocks it can mean the difference in several thousands because of the leverage.

Mighty_Men_of_Baltimore
8th December 2009, 14:15
yes. 17.50 was the bottom.

main1event
8th December 2009, 16:51
Isn't the 200 day moving average for both gold and silver well below the lows you are now calling for? Don't the PM's usually correct to the 200 day average? What's so different now?

The 50dma is at 1100 for gold and the 200dma is at 980. There is nothing wrong with falling through a moving average as long as it doesnt last for more than a few days.

The 200dma for Silver is at 15.00 the 50dma is at 17.50 where we are now. Silver fell through the 50dma back in early November then went on to 19.50. So no, the 50dma isnt critical.

I believe this fall is setting us up for an even bigger move in January.

DannyBoy
8th December 2009, 17:04
I'm not messing around (buy nor sell) until after the new year, when everyone has sobered back up and all the reports are in. It's just too volatile right now for my tastes.

realmoney
8th December 2009, 20:46
I think we are very close to the bottom here. While its entirely possible that gold could fall to 1070 or so, it might be just about time to start buying. I'd wait for just a little more selling before I bought either Silver or gold. I still think Silver could get to 17.25.

If gold does fall below 1070.00, then I believe silver could hit 16.50. Not much when you are buying bullion but when buying stocks it can mean the difference in several thousands because of the leverage.

I'll stick to my original prediction from a few days ago:

"Anyway, as long as we're making predictions, my crystal ball says we'll dip into the 1000's on gold and silver will be somewhere in the 16s. This should last well into this week to shake out the weak hands (with a little help from you know who). If you don't believe me, I'll show you a very convincing chart..."

I'll watch from the sidelines for a few more days, maybe until early next week, then get some real money on the cheap. Merry Christmas everyone!

RM

main1event
9th December 2009, 07:43
I agree, I'm on the sidelines as well. I do think waiting it out into the new year is a good idea. I think this is more than a few day loss, we should have at least one counter trend rally and then one more selloff.

The other thing that is bothering me is the market. The stock market looks like it may want to sell off here as well.

There are many cross currents and its difficult to get any read on the market or individual stocks. So perhaps the sidelines are the best policy.

Steadfast
9th December 2009, 09:16
After buying that new flat screen tv on Black Friday....
and with all my unfinished Christmas shopping come down...

I am afraid that, right now, i have no choice...
I MUST sit on the side lines! :rolleyes:

at least until the end of January!

Irishfan1
9th December 2009, 09:37
Main you must not have much faith in your bottom call if you are on the sidelines. Unfortunately, I didnt bail on the down move and its too late now, ive battoned down the hatches and im riding this storm out. Maybe I will be able to time the next correction better. Silver stocks bouncing back today, thats a good sign. If this is the end it lasted exactly 1 week from the highs. Remember that 1 week, time to recognize the correction (better see it inside of 2 days) sell let your money trades settle for the req. 3 days, wait a day or 2 then buy back in.

cabtrom
9th December 2009, 09:41
Treasury auctions done this week, then fed meeting next week. If nothing comes out of that then up up up!

Aggie
9th December 2009, 11:13
Well if these Chinese signals are any indication there are going to be higher bottoms henceforth.

agg

http://in.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idINTOE5B702F20091208?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0


ps. And this is a relative article to say the least.

http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/2009/12/07/gold-is-not-going-up-paper-money-is-going-down/

Katwoman
9th December 2009, 11:22
Sounds to me like they not only want to buy gold but they want to trigger a sell off so they can buy in at a good price........I would not be surprised if they bought gold from the IMF during this pullback and that this will be reported in the news this weekend or early next week.

Would anyone care to bet me a FRN I am right?

MasterQ
9th December 2009, 11:25
Sounds to me like they not only want to buy gold but they want to trigger a sell off so they can buy in at a good price........I would not be surprised if they bought gold from the IMF during this pullback and that this will be reported in the news this weekend or early next week.

Would anyone care to bet me a FRN I am right?

I never gamble with women at the table. ;)

No hard feelings but for some reason I just don't understand lady luck. :P

I wouldn't bet anyway.

The last of the downward pressure seems to be in now with oil doing a large sell off as well.

The dollar is hovering overbought at 76 and oil is getting oversold. Only one direction to go from here.

This friday should confirm the direction for next week.

-Q

Steadfast
9th December 2009, 11:26
wow...look at it fall!

17.50...ouch!