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Irishfan1
7th December 2009, 13:40
Looks like $18 is holding, hopefully this is the end of the correction. The dollar has topped I think. Just a little bit of profit taking the last couple days. Wish I coulda sold Wednesday and bought back in today. Oh well, you cant get the timing right all the time. When is silver gonna break thru $20 or $21? Before xmas I hope. I know I originally thought by Dec 1st. I was close but no cigar.
Go silver train.

LETMYSILVERGO
7th December 2009, 14:03
Chuga-Chuga Choo Choo, Ding-Ding Choo Choo, Chuga Chuga Choo Choo---

CLEAR THE TRACKS FOR THE SILVER TRAIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

main1event
7th December 2009, 14:31
There is support at $18.00 but looking at Gold it seems as though it may have some more downside to it perhaps another $40.00 to $60.00. Silver could possibly go as low as $17.25 or so, potentially. Not saying it does but Its been in line with gold so far.

MasterQ
7th December 2009, 14:41
As usual its up to the aftermarkets to decide whether they continue the short coverings from this morning before Bernake's speech.

It seems the shorters thought it would be a good idea to hit December and scare the longs for a bit.

The TA in the charts for today suggest more bear moves in the ratio as the 18 day has been holding for support UNDER the 9 day.

Anytime there has been noise in this channel it has been very agravating for the bulls.

Again, the dips have been small and short lived and I suspect this pattern to continue just for this week.

I am actually shocked it didn't try and continue into the mid 17's but that could still be the case just for this week.

Retail sales are going to be inflated with the insane deals abound. Has anyone see the Best Buy ads?

Unemployment will have a small hiccup as usual from the short term hires during the holiday season. This is an annual event and won't hold much through January.

We may see more sideways action before its all said and done.

The dollar will try and be the little engine that could but it still needs to test its lows from 2008. Only because the idea the TARP money is going to be paid back, affording 30,000 more troops, and increase in long term job growth being iminent is really about 1-2 years off.

Not bearish, just trying to understand the numbers so far.

-Q

Katwoman
7th December 2009, 14:56
I can see strong support at $17.40 but given the general direction of the activity in the dollar and PMs today it is exceedingly unlikely that we will even get that low before the market starts to move up again.

Az2Africa
7th December 2009, 15:21
Looks like the dollar dropped after Bernake's speach today. Maybe that will trigger the rise.

slvr
7th December 2009, 15:25
Bernanke says FED will profit from Bailout money ....hummmm.. sure, I would "profit" too if I had a legal money printing machine.

Az2Africa
7th December 2009, 20:23
Bernanke says FED will profit from Bailout money ....hummmm.. sure, I would "profit" too if I had a legal money printing machine.

Have you checked eBay. I pretty sure they are made in China.;)

SilverMeTimbers
7th December 2009, 21:21
As usual its up to the aftermarkets to decide whether they continue the short coverings from this morning before Bernake's speech.

It seems the shorters thought it would be a good idea to hit December and scare the longs for a bit.

The TA in the charts for today suggest more bear moves in the ratio as the 18 day has been holding for support UNDER the 9 day.

Anytime there has been noise in this channel it has been very agravating for the bulls.

Again, the dips have been small and short lived and I suspect this pattern to continue just for this week
I am actually shocked it didn't try and continue into the mid 17's but that could still be the case just for this week.

Retail sales are going to be inflated with the insane deals abound. Has anyone see the Best Buy ads?

Unemployment will have a small hiccup as usual from the short term hires during the holiday season. This is an annual event and won't hold much through January.

We may see more sideways action before its all said and done.

The dollar will try and be the little engine that could but it still needs to test its lows from 2008. Only because the idea the TARP money is going to be paid back, affording 30,000 more troops, and increase in long term job growth being eminent is really about 1-2 years off.

Not bearish, just trying to understand the numbers so far.

-Q

Hey Master
I am going to go out on a limb here.
The past two months the Jobs report has be revised up so if the trend continues Nov. will be the first positive job growth in a long while. Now, not 1-2 years off. Not by a long shot. Companies can not keep the upswing in productivity sustained with out adding workers. By adding workers short term profit will of course dip but it is a positioning for long term growth. Being stung personally pretty hard by this rescission I have tracked and studied it a lot and have found that one thing not talked about a lot is the fact that companies over did it, to an extent, with the layoffs. I think there will be a snap back with hiring. The last two months the unemployment numbers have been revised up. If you take that moving trend and applied it to Nov. numbers, we have gained jobs. Dollar goes up, our metal goes down. For a moment. I believe in the great silver explosion 100% but I feel there is going to be a great buying opportunity in the next six weeks to buy on a substantial dip. I agree with a lot of posters here in this forum, that silver is going to rise in a powerful way and I believe that this recession is going to wither sooner that a lot of people think but now, at this point, right now, it is like a low tide giving way to a high tide. There are all sorts of eddies and currents to navigate and conflicting news and opinion to wade through but this I am sure of, the worst is over but buy on the dip! Wow, that was wordy!

What is Truth?
8th December 2009, 08:09
Looks like $18 is holding, hopefully this is the end of the correction. The dollar has topped I think. Just a little bit of profit taking the last couple days. Wish I coulda sold Wednesday and bought back in today. Oh well, you cant get the timing right all the time. When is silver gonna break thru $20 or $21? Before xmas I hope. I know I originally thought by Dec 1st. I was close but no cigar.
Go silver train.


$17.86 as I write this. Must be more profit taking going on today. Still no cigar I'm sorry to say.

Cup-of-Ruin
8th December 2009, 08:14
Just did the COR put, for what it's worth, well it's worth it for me anyway.:p

MasterQ
8th December 2009, 08:28
The past two months the Jobs report has be revised up so if the trend continues Nov. will be the first positive job growth in a long while. Now, not 1-2 years off. Not by a long shot.

There hasn't been any positive "sustainable" job growth at all this year. It's constantly been "less bad". Are you saying your giving in to this speech? Unemployment is "less bad" and is "slowing" but it still is happening. I think I'm confused on your point.


Companies can not keep the upswing in productivity sustained with out adding workers. By adding workers short term profit will of course dip but it is a positioning for long term growth. Being stung personally pretty hard by this rescission I have tracked and studied it a lot and have found that one thing not talked about a lot is the fact that companies over did it, to an extent, with the layoffs.

I work as a bookkeeper and I can tell you that it isn't going to be just trying to keep up with productivity with labor force, it is going to be the bottom line. If I have to report month over month, year over year of strained budgets and lack of increased revenue the most cost saving cuts are going to be employees. This will put more strain on the current employees but they will do it because they have seen what happens if they refuse. "over did it" just isn't going to cut it until you truly understand each companies financial statements and cash requirements.



I think there will be a snap back with hiring. The last two months the unemployment numbers have been revised up. If you take that moving trend and applied it to Nov. numbers, we have gained jobs. Dollar goes up, our metal goes down. For a moment. I believe in the great silver explosion 100% but I feel there is going to be a great buying opportunity in the next six weeks to buy on a substantial dip.

I do hope you are right about "actual" job hirings. I want to clarify my statement. I believe the retail industry will have short term hirings, like they do every year, to keep up with the holiday shopping season. The problem may be that the hirings could be shallow considering how weak the dollar is and how high unemployment remains. People may be resorting to much cheaper gifts this year and really saving money for food and paying heating costs this winter.

Six weeks? I just don't see this likely. I truly give it this last week. Next week will start to erase this weeks losses and the last 2 weeks of December will be up and up into Feb/Mar 2010.

Not trying to tear you apart my friend. You make very good points. I just wanted to counterpoint with some more discussion. Great detail but we may both be at fault when more facts start to come to light.

-Q

SilverMeTimbers
8th December 2009, 09:13
There hasn't been any positive "sustainable" job growth at all this year. It's constantly been "less bad". Are you saying your giving in to this speech? Unemployment is "less bad" and is "slowing" but it still is happening. I think I'm confused on your point.



I work as a bookkeeper and I can tell you that it isn't going to be just trying to keep up with productivity with labor force, it is going to be the bottom line. If I have to report month over month, year over year of strained budgets and lack of increased revenue the most cost saving cuts are going to be employees. This will put more strain on the current employees but they will do it because they have seen what happens if they refuse. "over did it" just isn't going to cut it until you truly understand each companies financial statements and cash requirements.




I do hope you are right about "actual" job hirings. I want to clarify my statement. I believe the retail industry will have short term hirings, like they do every year, to keep up with the holiday shopping season. The problem may be that the hirings could be shallow considering how weak the dollar is and how high unemployment remains. People may be resorting to much cheaper gifts this year and really saving money for food and paying heating costs this winter.

Six weeks? I just don't see this likely. I truly give it this last week. Next week will start to erase this weeks losses and the last 2 weeks of December will be up and up into Feb/Mar 2010.

Not trying to tear you apart my friend. You make very good points. I just wanted to counterpoint with some more discussion. Great detail but we may both be at fault when more facts start to come to light.

-Q

Tear away Q! I am here to learn so any counterpoint to my posts I will welcome

lacaprup
8th December 2009, 09:31
I hope there is no support at $18. $17.96 right now. This is the first time in a while that I've stuck to my plan as far as an investment. I've got $5,000 waiting to go into silver as soon as hit goes down to $16. I think it will be in 1st q 2010. There are great buying oportunities ahead.

What is Truth?
8th December 2009, 09:57
I hope there is no support at $18. $17.96 right now. This is the first time in a while that I've stuck to my plan as far as an investment. I've got $5,000 waiting to go into silver as soon as hit goes down to $16. I think it will be in 1st q 2010. There are great buying oportunities ahead.


:lol: Let's hear the drum roll......... When we start talking "buying opportunities," it's offical, we are in a down market. ;)

ccjoe
8th December 2009, 10:22
I hope there is no support at $18. $17.96 right now. This is the first time in a while that I've stuck to my plan as far as an investment. I've got $5,000 waiting to go into silver as soon as hit goes down to $16. I think it will be in 1st q 2010. There are great buying oportunities ahead.

You got a LONG wait rup!
I got lucky when I caught ONE LAST 16.17 a month and a half ago to put in my last 4K. I don't think we'll EVER see that again as the USD is up, sentiment for metals is down and STILL silver in particular is hanging tough around 17.
With this new Dubai debt due Mon and Bernanke NOW saying NO interest rate hikes, LIGHTS OUT and to the MOON for silver and gold.
Ask Burl Ives>>"Silver and Gold" xmas song.

Katwoman
8th December 2009, 10:37
Anyone who thinks this a major pullback needs to take a dose of reality pills. We are looking at a 5% reduction in the price of gold which is not even outside the normal price range variance and essentially meaningless other than representing a nice buying in opportunity for those interested. Even the hedge fund managers expect 2010 to be another great year for PMs so I would remain fully invested unless you want to risk having to buy back in at a higher price point.

As I said in my year end prediction thread we have reached expected peaks for the year. Relax have a nice holiday buy your kids and other loved ones some PMs for Christmas while they are one sale and sit back and enjoy the holiday season knowing you will be way ahead of the curve the buying begins again on January 1.

As always buy the dips:)

MasterQ
8th December 2009, 10:38
You got a LONG wait rup!
I got lucky when I caught ONE LAST 16.17 a month and a half ago to put in my last 4K. I don't think we'll EVER see that again as the USD is up, sentiment for metals is down and STILL silver in particular is hanging tough around 17.
With this new Dubai debt due Mon and Bernanke NOW saying NO interest rate hikes, LIGHTS OUT and to the MOON for silver and gold.
Ask Burl Ives>>"Silver and Gold" xmas song.

Holy crap Joe I'm going to agree with you. Quick GIVE ME A SHOT OF SOME WHISKEY!

I think Ira Epstein is right on this one. The 17's (I say 17.23-17.50) will be a consolidation and gearing up to take out 19.47 this time.

We will probably be in the upper 18's before the end of the year.

Get them while they are hot all.

-Q

Katwoman
8th December 2009, 10:56
I can see strong support at $17.40 but given the general direction of the activity in the dollar and PMs today it is exceedingly unlikely that we will even get that low before the market starts to move up again.

We still have not broken or even touched support IMHO. I stand buy my expectations that we will not even get to $17.40. I base this on the fact that the last time the dollar index was were it is now silver was selling for around $17.50. Since then the US has amassed more debt and lost more jobs which will take years not days to replace. Any "economic recovery" we think we are seeing now based on retail sales will undoubtedly include an increase in our trade deficit with China etc. further eroding our chances for a honest and sustainable recovery associated with a real increase in our GDP. Any increase in our GDP without the creation of real private sector American jobs (not government jobs) will have to be due to even more inflation and will only signal that PMs needs to go higher which these will certainly do. In summary this spike in the dollar is based on future expectations of a strong dollar that are not founded in reality bolstered by typical seasonal behavior of people getting out of more volatile markets and into cash until after holidays.

As always buy the dips

Kat

Argyria
8th December 2009, 11:16
Well said Kat. I've finally gotten my parents truly interested in gold and silver. They've been seeing what's going on and have been stocking up on food, ammunition, and I think they are seeing the light about PM's. I'm considering giving them an ASE for christmas.

Katwoman
8th December 2009, 11:52
We still have not broken or even touched support IMHO. I stand buy my expectations that we will not even get to $17.40. I base this on the fact that the last time the dollar index was were it is now silver was selling for around $17.50. Since then the US has amassed more debt and lost more jobs which will take years not days to replace. Any "economic recovery" we think we are seeing now based on retail sales will undoubtedly include an increase in our trade deficit with China etc. further eroding our chances for a honest and sustainable recovery associated with a real increase in our GDP. Any increase in our GDP without the creation of real private sector American jobs (not government jobs) will have to be due to even more inflation and will only signal that PMs needs to go higher which these will certainly do. In summary this spike in the dollar is based on future expectations of a strong dollar that are not founded in reality bolstered by typical seasonal behavior of people getting out of more volatile markets and into cash until after holidays.

As always buy the dips

Kat

WASHINGTON President Barack Obama outlined new multibillion-dollar stimulus and jobs proposals Tuesday, saying the nation must continue to "spend our way out of this recession" until more Americans are back at work.

NUff said?

PMs should be rallying by the end of the week!!!

Cup-of-Ruin
8th December 2009, 17:36
WASHINGTON President Barack Obama outlined new multibillion-dollar stimulus and jobs proposals Tuesday, saying the nation must continue to "spend our way out of this recession" until more Americans are back at work.

NUff said?

PMs should be rallying by the end of the week!!!

Yep, they will stimulate, and they will print, print, print, because that's all they can do, ever known prices to go down under communist Gov's? Or an oversupply of goods and resources under Marxism? Marxist centralized economic planning just leads to inflation and then hyper-inflation, that's baked into the cake.

Katwoman
8th December 2009, 18:32
President Obama proposed a new program Tuesday that would reimburse homeowners for energy-efficient appliances and insulation, part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy.

The administration didn't provide immediate details, but said it would work with Congress on crafting legislation. Steve Nadel, director at the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, who's helping write the bill, said a homeowner could receive up to $12,000 in rebates.

Even I can't make this stuff up:eek:

Katwoman
8th December 2009, 19:19
WASHINGTON President Barack Obama called for a major new burst of federal spending Tuesday, perhaps $150 billion or more, aiming to jolt the wobbly economy into a stronger recovery and reduce painfully persistent double-digit unemployment.

it just gets more absurd by the minute:eek:

MasterQ
9th December 2009, 06:57
We still have not broken or even touched support IMHO. I stand buy my expectations that we will not even get to $17.40. I base this on the fact that the last time the dollar index was were it is now silver was selling for around $17.50. Since then the US has amassed more debt and lost more jobs which will take years not days to replace. Any "economic recovery" we think we are seeing now based on retail sales will undoubtedly include an increase in our trade deficit with China etc. further eroding our chances for a honest and sustainable recovery associated with a real increase in our GDP. Any increase in our GDP without the creation of real private sector American jobs (not government jobs) will have to be due to even more inflation and will only signal that PMs needs to go higher which these will certainly do. In summary this spike in the dollar is based on future expectations of a strong dollar that are not founded in reality bolstered by typical seasonal behavior of people getting out of more volatile markets and into cash until after holidays.

As always buy the dips

Kat

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/steady.jpg

AYE AYE CAP'N....STEADY AS SHE GOES!!!

I think this is the last week. Each day is confirming this so far. We just need to get through this friday with closes in the 18's and next week will make this week look like a distant memory.

For those of you waiting to 16's, you might have had a chance at 16.95 on one of my last TA charts for worst case scenario's but even I didn't think it would push that far.

Silver has been very glued to the dollar this time around and any little type of hiccup caused these movements. Of course it didn't help being overbought and embedded on both silver and gold. It was just thier time.

That being said the 9 day looks to cross under the 18. The last 2 times this happened it created sideways action and it didn't last before it crossed back above and we were making new highs again.

It is also on this I am basing some erasure next week, perhaps through sideways numbers and then moving up to January with the last 2 weeks of this month.

Dips have been shallow and about $1 to $1.50. This one just about did $2. That is about the deepest you want to see a correction in a fundamentally bull market. I saw this confirmed enough times from the first dip in the 16's before the following revisit to solidify my position for the end of the year.

January 1st will give a very slight dip. Maybe .75 from a close this year in the upper 18's. Using 17.40 as a higher low for this year I would suspect at most we revisit lower 18.05-18.10 for January's buying opportunity.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

MasterQ
9th December 2009, 14:24
False alarm people...move along.

Looks like 17.40 is holding up afterall Ms. Kitty.

Don't look for that to happen again.

Asia should digest it well and keep it hovering above 17.40 ready for a rally tomorrow and friday back into the 17.80's.

Carry on!

-Q

Katwoman
9th December 2009, 15:54
False alarm people...move along.

Looks like 17.40 is holding up afterall Ms. Kitty.

Don't look for that to happen again.

Asia should digest it well and keep it hovering above 17.40 ready for a rally tomorrow and friday back into the 17.80's.

Carry on!

-Q

Yes $17.40 has definitely confirmed itself as the support point.:)

Jake
10th December 2009, 11:05
Yes $17.40 has definitely confirmed itself as the support point.:)

Then how come silver dropped to 17.16?

Jake
10th December 2009, 11:08
Yes $17.40 has definitely confirmed itself as the support point.:)

Oh I forgot!
We had a "False Alarm"!
So Funny!
But...I must say...the quality of entertainment in this forum is still intact.

JesterJay
10th December 2009, 17:33
Ensign Jake,
The nearby "gravity well" from the planet Manipula pulled on the price of silver in the negative direction to form a minute tear in the Price-time continuum.
Due to this tear reality stretched and warped to where the $17.40 price point ACTUALLY REMAINED INTACT while dropping to the $17.16 level giving the IMPRESSION that the aforementioned Strong Silver Price Support Level had not held.
Surely Jake you see the logic of this explanation to your apparent misunderstanding of reality?
JesterJay*



*Sometimes I really crack me up!



Then how come silver dropped to 17.16?