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What is Truth?
6th December 2009, 20:25
How Deep will the Gold Correction Be?
Commodities / Gold & Silver 2009
Dec 06, 2009 - 08:01 AM

By: Ronald_Rosen


Four waves are the clue to the answer.

“The primary guideline is that corrections, especially when they themselves are fourth waves, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.” E. W. P.



The current correction in gold is Major Wave Four. $640.00 is the apex of the triangle on this gold chart. The triangle is the “….previous fourth wave of one lesser degree.…” There is also a tendency for corrections to return to the apex of a preceding triangle.



(see link to view charts)

GOLD MONTHLY



GOLD MONTHLY LOGARITHMIC



GOLD MONTHLY WITH LTD ARRIVALS NOTED



Gold coins and bars should be considered an insurance policy. I do not believe that they should be sold regardless of a decline in their price. The percentage increase in the precious metal shares is a multiple of the rise in the price of gold. The percentage decrease in the precious metal shares is a multiple of the decline in the price of gold. The shares are obviously more volatile than the metal. There is more hope for riches placed in the shares than there is in the metal. That hope gets dashed easily on the way down. Speculators in gold and silver have their hopes for riches dashed on the way down but gold has a hard core of holders that refuse to have their holdings dislodged by fluctuations. Holding the metal gold as insurance is the way to proceed until the financial and economic mess that we are living with is resolved or at least mitigated.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15600.html

realmoney
6th December 2009, 20:42
Excellent! I love the scare tactics. Fear is powerful, huh?

Hopefully more will be selling and this will be a, what does he call it, a Fourth wave whatcamacallit. Sounds very scientific and factual...

All I know is it will be a nice buying opportunity (assuming there are still PMs to be had without insane premiums).

RM

Relayer
6th December 2009, 21:31
Gold's going to $650....but dont sell!! If I thought gold was going to that number, of course I would sell! Why not sell now and buy twice as much for the same amount later?

IMO Elliot wave is over complicated which makes it prone to mis-interpretation.

Katwoman
6th December 2009, 21:35
We had the projected major correction last year and will not see another major correction until gold breaks $3500.

SilverLite
6th December 2009, 21:40
Minor correction maybe...it'll come back up

Just means i can get a little more each time i buy... :)

realmoney
6th December 2009, 21:57
Elliot waves and TA are beyond me. Looks like you could draw a line anywhere and as long as its on a graph its gives it credibility. Come to think of it, I knew many project managers that used the same technique...

Anyway, as long as we're making predictions, my crystal ball says we'll dip into the 1000's on gold and silver will be somewhere in the 16s. This should last well into this week to shake out the weak hands (with a little help from you know who). If you don't believe me, I'll show you a very convincing chart...

Anyway, benefit for having a long term outlook is that this week really doesn't matter much (or the accuracy of my crystal ball). Before long we'll be back over 1200.

RM

ThreeNinesFine
6th December 2009, 23:21
Won't drop much, as in maybe $100. Let's not forget that China, Russia, India and the rest are underneath the price.

main1event
6th December 2009, 23:27
Gold could go as low as $1000.00 and remain within a strong bull market. At that point it would be incredibly oversold. In years past December has acted as a consolidation period for both gold and silver. Then sometime in early to mid January it begins another very large run, that lasts until late march or April.

It is likely that once gold finishes its correction we are likely to see a very large up day, of $50.00 or more. We have only seen one 10% day in Gold since the bull market began, which is unusual. That tells me, that we have not even begin to see gold get frothy yet. More to come.

MasterQ
6th December 2009, 23:30
Elliot waves and TA are beyond me. Looks like you could draw a line anywhere and as long as its on a graph its gives it credibility. Come to think of it, I knew many project managers that used the same technique...

Anyway, as long as we're making predictions, my crystal ball says we'll dip into the 1000's on gold and silver will be somewhere in the 16s. This should last well into this week to shake out the weak hands (with a little help from you know who). If you don't believe me, I'll show you a very convincing chart...

Anyway, benefit for having a long term outlook is that this week really doesn't matter much (or the accuracy of my crystal ball). Before long we'll be back over 1200.

RM

16's? Yeah I tried that route..didn't pan out my friend.

I'm afraid the 16's are just about long and gone.

I was looking at them for the 100 day touch but I'm thinking more the 100 day will get into the 17's before that happens and then we'll have already hit it.

I got tired of trying to see when silver would take back a bit. The dips have been very shallow.

Currently we aren't even 10% down from the last peak. The last time we barely hit 11% down before we bounced to a new high for the year.

TA has been increasingly wrong month to month and though it can have some reference, it needs to be taken VERY lightly.

If Kat's 17.40-17.80 prediciton holds up then this will only solidify the feelings.

Buy it now everyone, buy it while its hot.

I imagine this will be the last week for you to get long.

The longs have been getting liquidated in trading since we broke under 18.97 and China is now trading the end of the dollar's rally from Friday.

The dust will settle and we can continue this wave.

Look at this past year. For every chance the new low was to take out the prior low, even with the seasonals kicking in it NEVER did!

I would say we would have to take out 17.05 before this year's trend of higher lows is broken and then it would have to sink past 16. Sorry charlie but I am not biting on this one.

I'm in the water but only shallow as I wouldn't trade this market. I'm in for the long so I can make a bit of scratch just in case.

Good luck to us all!

-Q

LETMYSILVERGO
6th December 2009, 23:56
We had the projected major correction last year and will not see another major correction until gold breaks $3500.

YOU'RE MY KINDA GAL !! ( JACK TOLD ME TO SAY THAT )

LETMYSILVERGO
6th December 2009, 23:58
And If Gold Gets Down To 200.00 And Before You Crack-- Call Me & I'll
Buy From You--- What Are Friends For?

ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?? OOPS THAT ROBERT DENERO.

silversurfer1
7th December 2009, 08:41
This correction can't be because of that lame jobs report (if the truth). That is what the press was initially saying it was. Would Dubai come into play here? I know part of it is Bernanke trying to save his butt getting re-confirmed and he's manipulating all he can right now.

Katwoman
7th December 2009, 09:08
Day to day market activity is driven by a combination of factors including but not limited to acute fear of missing the next party boat. Long-term trends are driven by clearer heads and common sense and since there is no measurable change in the fundamentals this pullback will be short lived and may even be over already.

Katwoman
7th December 2009, 11:11
It looks like we have reached the bottom of this little pullback and that prices will be rising again starting this afternoon:)

As always remember to buy the dips.

main1event
7th December 2009, 11:53
Thats possible Kat but I suspect we'll see some more downside. Possibly another $20 - 60.00 in gold and another .40 - .80 in Silver. Perhaps not today but in the coming week.

Notice how the dollar sold off a bit today. Nothing happens the same way twice, so I doubt the dollar is going to rally substantially from here. More than likely this weakness in gold is merely a consolidation from being overbought. I bet in the next 30 days we'll be reaching new highs in Gold and Silver.

The recent selloff means gold and silver are on sale. Attention K-mart shoppers, Blue Light special in the PM Isle.

SilverJim
7th December 2009, 13:04
It looks like we have reached the bottom of this little pullback and that prices will be rising again starting this afternoon:)

As always remember to buy the dips.

Are you clairvoyant? Silver is up about $.30 since this morning. Hmmm ;)

silversurfer1
7th December 2009, 13:24
All Bernanke has to do is make some complete BS hogwash speculative comments on interest rates and gold/silver drop and dollar gains!?! God what a show!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-extends-losses-as-dollar-gains-vs-rivals-2009-12-07

Katwoman
7th December 2009, 13:58
Are you clairvoyant? Silver is up about $.30 since this morning. Hmmm ;)

No. BTW who is Claire Voyant? I have never heard of her and what does she know about TA ;)

main1event
7th December 2009, 13:59
Everything in a downtrend has intraday rallies, but its all in how something closes that determines whether you have a trend reversal or simply a counter trend rally.

The macD which follows the momentum is clearly still overbought for gold and only another 4 or 5 days of sideways to downward action will relieve the overbought condition.

Like I said absolutely no worries, we'll be higher soon. Money has no where to go but into a safehaven. Why put your money into the dollar or treasuries when they provide no yield. That happened last time and things do not happen twice the same way.

SilverJim
7th December 2009, 14:43
No. BTW who is Claire Voyant? I have never heard of her and what does she know about TA ;)

Gordon Shumway's cousin (aka ALF) perhaps? :rolleyes:

lambro
7th December 2009, 23:18
http://i116.photobucket.com/albums/o12/lambro3/2009/zg120709.jpg

What is Truth?
8th December 2009, 09:00
$1146.00 as I write this. Nice minor correction thus far for those who waited to get in off of gold's all time recent high.

Katwoman
8th December 2009, 11:29
Thats possible Kat but I suspect we'll see some more downside.



Good call Main

What is Truth?
8th December 2009, 11:38
Good call Main

Main is the man! Depending on which post of his you read. :mrgreen:

Aggie
8th December 2009, 12:04
I have to wonder what the Chinese are thinking about all this lately.

Bernanke's speech, PM's trending down a tad, dollar up. Decisions, decisions.

That said, I'm quite sure this will have some influence on what they do next.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av16pDNNrMig

aggie

of one mine
8th December 2009, 14:01
http://www.google.com/images?q=tbn:he1G-Fm1NK2vDM::synergy-athletics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/the-three-amigos-salute1.jpg&h=94&w=117&usg=__HNqP0fwH-sVAJpUR6W3OEs71xHY= (http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://synergy-athletics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/the-three-amigos-salute1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://synergy-athletics.com/%3Fp%3D2363&h=383&w=479&sz=39&tbnid=he1G-Fm1NK2vDM:&tbnh=103&tbnw=129&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dthree%2Bamigos&usg=__DNe7HPN5sIwyt2fiT37Z6jI2ogw=&ei=fKEeS9zRHYiosgPf7-n2CQ&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=1&ct=image&ved=0CAwQ9QEwAA)Just like the old days, take us to your silver! and gold
of one mine