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red snapper
4th December 2009, 01:37
Here's a question..

I have a modest equity plan, running for the last 5 years, and I lost over 40% of the total contribution last year during the crash.

It's getting back on track (just) but with the talk of a double dip recession and falling value of the dollar (it's all in US$) I'm getting jittery.

I recently invested in some silver bullion, and am contemplating encashing what I've got left of this policy and buying more silver bullion with it. From everything I've read about silver going to the moon in the future, there's some sense in it.

It would mean my portfolio being 90% skewed to PM's (which makes me feel very uncomfortable), but then, who knows what the hell's going to happen to the dollar.

Either I do this, leave it where it is to the ravages of the stock market, or pull it all out and re-invest in Chinese Yuan!

The Euro as an alternative? Not sure about that one, and Sterling will soon be dead and swallowed by Europe (imho). Not to mention the UK's economy is as buggered as the US.

Any thoughts?

Cheers.

akak
4th December 2009, 01:42
Here's a question..

I have a modest equity plan, running for the last 5 years, and I lost over 40% of the total contribution last year during the crash.

It's getting back on track (just) but with the talk of a double dip recession and falling value of the dollar (it's all in US$) I'm getting jittery.

I recently invested in some silver bullion, and am contemplating encashing what I've got left of this policy and buying more silver bullion with it. From everything I've read about silver going to the moon in the future, there's some sense in it.

It would mean my portfolio being 90% skewed to PM's (which makes me feel very uncomfortable), but then, who knows what the hell's going to happen to the dollar.

Either I do this, leave it where it is to the ravages of the stock market, or pull it all out and re-invest in Chinese Yuan!

The Euro as an alternative? Not sure about that one, and Sterling will soon be dead and swallowed by Europe (imho). Not to mention the UK's economy is as buggered as the US.

Any thoughts?

Cheers.


I think my thinking would parallel your thinking if I were in your shoes at this point. I was lucky enough to cash out of all my equity mutual funds in January of 2008 and convert them all into PM's just as you propose to do. Were I in your position today, I would be considering doing just as you suggest, with the modification of putting some percentage of your cashed-out equities into gold as well, especially if you are in the UK and considering the VAT that one must pay for silver, but not gold. But as for anything equity-related, my feelings would be to drop them like a hot potato.

red snapper
4th December 2009, 01:57
Thanks for the reply, and that's what I'm thinking.

Silver more so at the moment and it has more potential upswing (?), as gold's too high right now (but I do already have some).

I don't have access to coins, so bullion is my only real option through BullionVault in London.

My only fear is the majority of my investment would be with one company, and that makes me nervous (despite how secure they say they are)

Argyria
4th December 2009, 02:05
Thanks for the reply, and that's what I'm thinking.

Silver more so at the moment and it has more potential upswing (?), as gold's too high right now (but I do already have some).

I don't have access to coins, so bullion is my only real option through BullionVault in London.

My only fear is the majority of my investment would be with one company, and that makes me nervous (despite how secure they say they are)

Secure? You mean you are going to buy silver that they are going to hold for you? If you don't take physical possession of your silver, you don't own it.

red snapper
4th December 2009, 02:25
It's vaulted bullion in an allocated account, and although it's not physically in my hands, I do own it and have a legal entitlement to it.

You must have heard of them through on the gold market right?

akak
4th December 2009, 02:39
It's vaulted bullion in an allocated account, and although it's not physically in my hands, I do own it and have a legal entitlement to it.

You must have heard of them through on the gold market right?

Yes, we have heard of them certainly, Red Snapper, and I for one have no particular reason to doubt their integrity or honesty. However, many people believe that if one does not own precious metals in their physical possession, then all one really owns is a paper claim to metals, a second-hand possession as it were, which cannot substitute for holding metals for oneself in the event of a major currency crisis or financial collapse. In such an event, it is all but guaranteed that BullionVault, GoldisMoney, and the PM ETF's would have their metals confiscated or nationalized, leaving one holding a worthless paper claim --- much as the collapse of a bank a la the 1930's left the depositor with a pretty checkbook and not much else.

This is not to argue against ever holding precious metals in such depositories, as I believe that doing so can have merit as part of a diversified precious metals portfolio, but it is also no substitute for what many here see as fundamental: a core holding in one's own possession.

red snapper
4th December 2009, 02:52
I'm with you there.

Governmental seizure of accounts is a real concern. What do I have then? Nothing.

I do agree that having physical possession in your hands is the only way to really own it.

My current situation is that I have no access to buying the physical stuff, and as I live in a fairly transient country, even if I could, I would be wary travelling with kilos of silver.

A vaulted account, for me for the moment, seems like the only way of getting in on the action, although I am aware there is a risk in the case of absolute financial armageddon.

A tricky situation to be in, but if I stay optimistic that the financial market won't melt down imminently, but that inflation and dollar weakness will increase the price of silver and lower the value of my equities, I'm still not sure whether to cash in and stick it all in BullionVault.

red snapper
4th December 2009, 04:12
What are your views on Swiss vaults for keeping bullion? They are supposedly the last bastion of banking integrity right?

BullionVault have a Swiss vault.

ryshay
4th December 2009, 06:21
What are your views on Swiss vaults for keeping bullion? They are supposedly the last bastion of banking integrity right?

BullionVault have a Swiss vault.

Like you said Red Snapper, you are nervous about keeping all your bullion in one place. So, find a way to get gold rounds. You say gold coins are unavailable? I don't know UK law, but it seems you should be able to find some Austrian Philharmonic Gold coins somehow.. They are very compact. They are denominated in euros.
Ebay?
I am nervous about all your bullion being held with any private institution. Especially in the US or UK. Switzerland used to be the last bastion of banking integrity, then they sold out all their clients to the USGovt (UBS did). So Switz is the USGovt's bitch now. I would diversify who has your gold, and try to get a lot of it in your own hands.

red snapper
4th December 2009, 07:00
Ok guys, you have spooked me, but then, maybe that's a good thing.

I'm kind of coming round to the idea of selling my equities portfolio (it'll be at a loss - but then what will it be worth in a few years anyway?) and buying coins.

I think the next time I'm back in the UK I'll get some from London.

Any recommendations for gold? I read the Swiss 20 Franc coin is a good buy, or a US Liberty Double Eagle as a numismatic coin (being the coin to go for?)

If I buy silver in the UK, I'll get hit with VAT, but I can at least claim that back on the way out. Any recommendations for coins?

Do any of you buy via insured delivery, or prefer to buy directly at the dealer? I would have thought the 2nd option the better (although the idea of walking out of the store with a pocket full of coins like that hardly thrills me!)

Cheers.

main1event
4th December 2009, 07:00
In todays world of tungsten bars and duplicate serial numbers, if you dont have it in your hand, you dont own it.

I would spread your money around just a little bit, perhaps a bit in equities and the other in actual bullion. Thats my approach anyways. I look at the historic value of silver compared to gold, and silver is extremely undervalued. Investing is all about value. An asset can remain undervalued for years or even decades but when the crowd rushes in, it will soon become overvalued. Thats typically how it works. Thats why I dont advocate real estate, I believe its still overvalued with an occasional deal.

I would not buy other currencies, they are all fiat and all governments are playing the same game. If you look at all major currencies against gold, you'll notice that gold is outperforming all of them. That speaks mountains.

Argyria
4th December 2009, 07:10
Don't go for numismatics, unless you really know what you are doing. More reliable to just get bullion. Numismatics often lose their premium in a bad situation, no one but a collector cares about rarity.

main1event
4th December 2009, 07:16
I would pay the premium for eagles. $2.50 isnt much of a premium when you consider how recognizable Eagles are. You can bring them anywhere. I do like the idea of own a few 100 oz bars but the size of the bars open them up for the possibility of tampering.

gottago
4th December 2009, 07:36
I remember seeing an ad someplace about a country in Europe that was selling gold bullion out of vending machines, it may have been Switzerland.

Just a thought..

chroNick
4th December 2009, 07:42
Here's a question..

I have a modest equity plan, running for the last 5 years, and I lost over 40% of the total contribution last year during the crash.

It's getting back on track (just) but with the talk of a double dip recession and falling value of the dollar (it's all in US$) I'm getting jittery.

I recently invested in some silver bullion, and am contemplating encashing what I've got left of this policy and buying more silver bullion with it. From everything I've read about silver going to the moon in the future, there's some sense in it.

It would mean my portfolio being 90% skewed to PM's (which makes me feel very uncomfortable), but then, who knows what the hell's going to happen to the dollar.

Either I do this, leave it where it is to the ravages of the stock market, or pull it all out and re-invest in Chinese Yuan!

The Euro as an alternative? Not sure about that one, and Sterling will soon be dead and swallowed by Europe (imho). Not to mention the UK's economy is as buggered as the US.

Any thoughts?

Cheers.

Don't take anyone's advice here as worth more than a grain of salt. That includes mine. Everyone's situation is different. I don't know what your risk tollerance is, your knowledge about other markets (like equities, currencies), I don't know how freaked out you get by volatility, your age, your total income now, your marital status, where you live, etc etc etc. We all have different circumstances, thus, the investing that we do should fit our cirumstances. What's good for someone else may be bad for you, and vice versa.

With that being said, I can tell you what I think will happen in the future. I believe there will be strong inflation. Not sure if it's hyperinflation or what, but PMs should benefit very well as well as agriculture and other base metals. I believe that if you pick the right gold stocks, you can make a fortune, and if you know how to pick junior gold stocks, now would be the best time. I also believe that stocks will go down relative to commodities, and the dollar will get worse. With that being said, you need to figure out how to balance your portfolio and do a lot of research.

Good luck.

ryshay
4th December 2009, 07:59
I remember seeing an ad someplace about a country in Europe that was selling gold bullion out of vending machines, it may have been Switzerland.

Just a thought..

Germany.

And Lloyds in UK sells gold bullion in some stores.

red snapper
4th December 2009, 08:44
Thanks guys. All good food for thought.

gottago
4th December 2009, 09:34
Germany.

And Lloyds in UK sells gold bullion in some stores.



Good call.
Your right about Lloyd's, I completely forgot about seeing that on the tube sometime back..

As a matter of fact, I think it was for "christmas presents" last year.

DaleFromCalgary
4th December 2009, 09:49
"It would mean my portfolio being 90% skewed to PM's (which makes me feel very uncomfortable)"

Then don't do it. Buy some gold coins, buy some silver, and make sure you have physical possession in your house (bury it in the garden if you're worried about burglars). BullionVault and other allocated storage companies do not give you physical gold or silver, only a piece of paper that says you have some. They are no more immune to bankruptcy or government seizure than anyone else. The Swiss are being forced to divulge information to American and Canadian taxmen (and probably Inland Revenue as well). If the British government wanted to, they could occupy the Channel Islands in a day and seize everything, no matter what James Turk thinks. Likewise the Caribbean colonies such as Cayman or Turks & Caicos.

Also don't forget that you should have a portion of your investment in preserved foods and bottled beverages. This isn't just tinfoil-hat survivalism; it is common sense if the power goes out, double-digit inflation kicks in, or some other emergency. You can't eat gold and silver.

Being a Peak Oiler, I also invest in physical conventional oil (mineral rights, limited-partnerships in producing wells, private equity junior petes) but this may not be practical for a Brit. You could invest in some publicly-traded petroleum companies but stay away from the juniors working in the North Sea or unstable regions of the world.

hippiebrian
5th December 2009, 10:28
Ok guys, you have spooked me, but then, maybe that's a good thing.

I'm kind of coming round to the idea of selling my equities portfolio (it'll be at a loss - but then what will it be worth in a few years anyway?) and buying coins.

I think the next time I'm back in the UK I'll get some from London.

Any recommendations for gold? I read the Swiss 20 Franc coin is a good buy, or a US Liberty Double Eagle as a numismatic coin (being the coin to go for?)

If I buy silver in the UK, I'll get hit with VAT, but I can at least claim that back on the way out. Any recommendations for coins?

Do any of you buy via insured delivery, or prefer to buy directly at the dealer? I would have thought the 2nd option the better (although the idea of walking out of the store with a pocket full of coins like that hardly thrills me!)

Cheers.

Don't sell it all if you're in for the long run! Over time, diversity is your friend...

I say sell what you think is a good percentage and buy bullion, but the whole eggs in one basket thing is risky! I know this is an unpopular opinion here, however in most ffinancial circles, diversity is pushed.

ryshay
5th December 2009, 10:35
Don't sell it all if you're in for the long run! Over time, diversity is your friend...

I say sell what you think is a good percentage and buy bullion, but the whole eggs in one basket thing is risky! I know this is an unpopular opinion here, however in most ffinancial circles, diversity is pushed.

I love diversification too!
Silver generic rounds, bars, ASE's, ML's, 90% Silver US Coins.
Don't put all your eggs in one basket, I always say!
;)

Katwoman
5th December 2009, 14:12
Don't go for numismatics, unless you really know what you are doing. More reliable to just get bullion. Numismatics often lose their premium in a bad situation, no one but a collector cares about rarity.

While I would not buy "rare" numismatics I would buy common Peace and Morgans as these coins do not command a high premium and are easily recognizable. In fact, you can get well worn junk silver for near spot these days. In addition, numismatics come in smaller denominations such as half dollars, quarter dollars and dimes that are very useful as real money if the SHTF. Add some ASEs, and a few bars of bullion in various sizes and you have the silver equivalent of cash drawer!!

Silver Oldie
5th December 2009, 15:34
I love diversification too!
Silver generic rounds, bars, ASE's, ML's, 90% Silver US Coins.
Don't put all your eggs in one basket, I always say!
;)


Yes, and in addition to the diversification you mentioned there are the multitude of artistic .925 and .999 silver sets produced by the Franklin. Danbury, Hamilton, Lincoln and other mints in the 70's & 80's, (a rip off of the original owners, but now purchasable at near spot on the secondary market), 925 flat and hollow ware. Then if you have a bent for learning grading, there is open to you the fantastic variety of world coin and especially world medal collecting, available on Ebay. One subset of the latter is Swiss Shooting Medals with many in silver; the big heavy silver medals of Paul Vincze; other 19th century series as the City of London 75mm bronzes with mintages of 400 and the Art Union of London bronzes (silver in this series out of sight).

realmoney
6th December 2009, 06:52
Did I see a "to da moon" in the original post ;)

Red Snapper, I may be wrong, but seems like you are looking for a quick buck. PMs may go to da moon, but I'm not counting on it. For me its a great way to save some real money and preserve that wealth I'm building. But you have to be long or you'll freak out on the next correction (and DCA helps me too).

So, if you want to get in/out quick, go for the equities. Buy some AEM today, sell it tomorrow, trade the forex the next day, ... your broker will love you ;)

And as much as I love PMs, I wouldn't have 90% of my eggs in the PM basket.

RM

red snapper
6th December 2009, 09:24
Did I see a "to da moon" in the original post ;)

Red Snapper, I may be wrong, but seems like you are looking for a quick buck. PMs may go to da moon, but I'm not counting on it. For me its a great way to save some real money and preserve that wealth I'm building. But you have to be long or you'll freak out on the next correction (and DCA helps me too).

So, if you want to get in/out quick, go for the equities. Buy some AEM today, sell it tomorrow, trade the forex the next day, ... your broker will love you ;)

And as much as I love PMs, I wouldn't have 90% of my eggs in the PM basket.

RM

Quick buck? Far from it. I'm looking at preserving what little I've got left and am in this for the long run.

Corrections? Sure. PM's are volatile right, but do you ever see gold going below US$900 again, or silver dropping back to below US$10 given the current financial heading?

I have two equities plans running, and I always looked at them as long term for my pension.

However, losing 50% off both last year, and then looking at a potentially flat market for 2010 and then the potential risk of losing more? Doesn't cut it for me. With the mountain of debt owed by the US and the UK, problems with China and the Far East, how can the traditional pensions savings investing plans continue to last?

One plan I'm leaving as is to spread the portfolio and hedge my bets, and the other I'm cashing in to buy what I deem to be an appropriate amount of gold and silver.

Maybe I'll even start a new equity plan with my current monthly set aside, and I want to start looking at buying some stock as well, and that's what I'm going to discuss with my broker when I see him tomorrow.

However, from the research I've done on gold and silver on the net, I can't help but feel it's too good a long term opportunity to miss by not buying in now.

Planning for the worst, but optimistically hoping it'll never happen.

realmoney
6th December 2009, 09:52
Sorry RS, I jumped to conclusions from your original post.

I agree with you that traditional IRAs and retirement plans don't do it for me either. I've put plenty into mutual funds and equities over the years, and even before 2008 most were disappointing at best. I've since fired my broker and taken control over my own financial decisions. Yes I've had to learn a lot, but well worth it (haven't fired my accountant!)

As for going "all in" to PMs, I'm also trying hard to eliminate any remaining debt, including paying off the mortgage. Debt really is slavery! So PM purchases are just a part of my overall goals.

Cheers,
RM