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main1event
2nd December 2009, 17:13
I've been seeing more and more articles and newsletters recommending selling your profit here in gold and silver. Kat even provided one today that said their target had been reached. My contrarian ears have perked up. Gold is clearly overbought when you look at strict TA and the projection for gold is up to $1300.00 based on some of the calculations that I've shared in past posts.

My dilemma is that I fear people are selling their gold and getting out of gold and silver after a nice 20% run up. I think this is a huge mistake. Even though both Gold and Silver are going to become highly volatile at this level with lots of swings, this feels much different. Any selling is met with buying, people are waiting to get in at lower levels. Everyone is waiting for a pullback to get in. I've seen some 20% pullback projections for gold and silver here. I believe they are all wrong.

When gold and silver do pullback it will be a doozy for sure but where will that be? Will gold go to $2000.00 and pull back 30%? I have no idea right now where the top will be. Perhaps when I see more giddy investors as stocks double. Thats when I'll give my warning but right now, I think its too risky to sell here. Gold has gone parabolic, but only god knows where its going to go. Just dont be shaken from the bull, it will sell off $20.00 or $40.00 only to come back. Wait until the majority of investors are bullish, not expecting a pullback from here.

MasterQ
2nd December 2009, 17:27
I've been seeing more and more articles and newsletters recommending selling your profit here in gold and silver. Kat even provided one today that said their target had been reached. My contrarian ears have perked up. Gold is clearly overbought when you look at strict TA and the projection for gold is up to $1300.00 based on some of the calculations that I've shared in past posts.

My dilemma is that I fear people are selling their gold and getting out of gold and silver after a nice 20% run up. I think this is a huge mistake. Even though both Gold and Silver are going to become highly volatile at this level with lots of swings, this feels much different. Any selling is met with buying, people are waiting to get in at lower levels. Everyone is waiting for a pullback to get in. I've seen some 20% pullback projections for gold and silver here. I believe they are all wrong.

When gold and silver do pullback it will be a doozy for sure but where will that be? Will gold go to $2000.00 and pull back 30%? I have no idea right now where the top will be. Perhaps when I see more giddy investors as stocks double. Thats when I'll give my warning but right now, I think its too risky to sell here. Gold has gone parabolic, but only god knows where its going to go. Just dont be shaken from the bull, it will sell off $20.00 or $40.00 only to come back. Wait until the majority of investors are bullish, not expecting a pullback from here.

So if you were trading, are you suggesting you wouldn't put in sell stops?

-Q

gottago
2nd December 2009, 17:37
I've been seeing more and more articles and newsletters recommending selling your profit here in gold and silver. Kat even provided one today that said their target had been reached. My contrarian ears have perked up. Gold is clearly overbought when you look at strict TA and the projection for gold is up to $1300.00 based on some of the calculations that I've shared in past posts.

My dilemma is that I fear people are selling their gold and getting out of gold and silver after a nice 20% run up. I think this is a huge mistake. Even though both Gold and Silver are going to become highly volatile at this level with lots of swings, this feels much different. Any selling is met with buying, people are waiting to get in at lower levels. Everyone is waiting for a pullback to get in. I've seen some 20% pullback projections for gold and silver here. I believe they are all wrong.

When gold and silver do pullback it will be a doozy for sure but where will that be? Will gold go to $2000.00 and pull back 30%? I have no idea right now where the top will be. Perhaps when I see more giddy investors as stocks double. Thats when I'll give my warning but right now, I think its too risky to sell here. Gold has gone parabolic, but only god knows where its going to go. Just dont be shaken from the bull, it will sell off $20.00 or $40.00 only to come back. Wait until the majority of investors are bullish, not expecting a pullback from here.



Everytime there are "corrections" during the last few months, the prices have rebounded usually the same day..

I think the banksters are going to try and con the public into selling their stashes in order to drive the prices down, hopefully people won't cave...

main1event
2nd December 2009, 17:52
I would not have sell stops in here at all. In fact I dont and I'm in AGQ. It appears to me that the stock market is going to go higher as well.

Short story that I've shared before with all of you during the first silver run from $6.00 to over $12.00 I was trading some silver stocks. One of them was a new stock SLW and I had it at $2.50 I doubled my money at $5.00 I thought silver was over bought and due for a correction. Well SLW went over $10.00 a share. I believe it went to $12.00. Sure I traded it but if I had just held I would have been up 4x my money instead of the 1.5 x that I ended up making.

I believe this is one of those times. How do I know? Look at gold and silver stocks, sure they've provided about a 15% gain or so in the last couple of weeks. However, here arent many people rushing into these stocks. We arent see 50% moves like we did several years ago. In fact stocks like NEM are just hitting all time highs.

I believe there is going to be some shakeouts, that are going to scare everyone but I dont believe this is the top by any means. This is a postion play that will last until April. We will see a 10% correction in that time that will scare everyone, but I believe the situation is dire. Hold on to your hat and your gold & silver

ryshay
2nd December 2009, 17:59
The Wall Street Journal has now officially put the issue to
rest.

Gold is in a bubble. Worse than the Nasdaq in 2000, and worse than real estate in 2007! Look! gold spikes off the chart!

Well, I'm convinced--I'm dumping all PMs and loading up on FRN$!

FRN$ are clearly undervalued, a great value-play!

:rolleyes:


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125970281466871707.html
Fed Debates New Role: Bubble Fighter


http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AS718_Bubble_NS_20091201201615.gif

main1event
2nd December 2009, 18:03
These are same people that never saw a bubble in real estate or in the stock market, or anything else for that matter. They wouldnt know what a bubble is if it came up and bit them in the ass. I know what a bubble is and we are far from it. If anything is overvalued it is the stock market but you'll never here that from them.

Guys buy all you can and then some.

Argentum
2nd December 2009, 20:37
Also keep in mind that bubbles are more or less a "Western" sort of thing. India is buying gold by the TONS!, China is also stock piling with a goal of some 10,000 tons. And many others.

This is not a bubble by any means. Gold ain't even approaching it's high when you look at inflation.

silversurfer1
2nd December 2009, 21:29
Gold is not in any bubble. Just keep focused on the fundamentals - which stink. Sinking Dollar, largest federal budget deficit in the history of the U.S. and increasing, more money printing every passing day, red-lined trade deficits, loss of manufacturing base, rising umemployment and on and on and on.....

Longhaul
2nd December 2009, 23:24
I think this talk of bubble is misinformation. My crystal ball says this is where the herd gets separated and the cautious get left grasping at wishes of a pullback.

As main said, the folks calling bubble didn't call anything going into this mess, like they have turned a new leaf now and have reason to steer you in the right direction. Head fake and onward we go.

That's what my gut tells me anyway.

ryshay
2nd December 2009, 23:50
Just last year the State Media was saying how stupid gold investors are, because gold has gone up like 2% annualized since 1980. It is a terrible investment, they shouted.

Now, one year later, gold is in a bubble.

How can it go from a terrible investment to a bubble in one year!?!

And, how can gold be a bubble, when nobody owns it?!

Bob Chapman says that 15% of Americans own PMs or miner shares.

How can an asset be in a bubble when the general public does not even know how to spell "G-O-L-D". The only gold they've seen is pressed on some rapper's teeth on MTV. Who do you know who is invested in PMs?

I don't know one person who is in my area. Does this sound like a bubble?

Compare this supposed gold bubble to the Nasdaq bubble. How many people did you know who were in tech stocks? (quite a few, myself too). Every magazine was gushing over the latest stupid dot.com idea. Every tech analyst was listened to as an Oracle of Delphi. Friggin broke kids in college somehow scraped together enough money to open a discount brokerage account so they could be part of the "New Economy".

Does any of this sound familiar now?

No, it does not.

SilverLite
3rd December 2009, 01:33
Glad to be part of the 15%... :)

paperplane
3rd December 2009, 01:46
Just last year the State Media was saying how stupid gold investors are, because gold has gone up like 2% annualized since 1980. It is a terrible investment, they shouted.

Now, one year later, gold is in a bubble.

How can it go from a terrible investment to a bubble in one year!?!

And, how can gold be a bubble, when nobody owns it?!

Bob Chapman says that 15% of Americans own PMs or miner shares.

How can an asset be in a bubble when the general public does not even know how to spell "G-O-L-D". The only gold they've seen is pressed on some rapper's teeth on MTV. Who do you know who is invested in PMs?

I don't know one person who is in my area. Does this sound like a bubble?

Compare this supposed gold bubble to the Nasdaq bubble. How many people did you know who were in tech stocks? (quite a few, myself too). Every magazine was gushing over the latest stupid dot.com idea. Every tech analyst was listened to as an Oracle of Delphi. Friggin broke kids in college somehow scraped together enough money to open a discount brokerage account so they could be part of the "New Economy".

Does any of this sound familiar now?

No, it does not.

well said :cool:

TexAsh
3rd December 2009, 07:38
I'm just a common schlub with no college education who has maybe been paying attention a little bit better than Joe Sixpack, at best.

Today my list of Big Picture concerns looks like this:


Continued dramatic devaluation of the USD
Threat of hyper-inflation in 2010 - 2011 and beyond
Precious metals (and other commodities) becoming increasingly more important than equities or cash
Major foreign states (Russia, India, China) forsaking the USD as a global currency in favor of precious metals
CTFC allowing certain banksters like JPM to hold unsustainable short positions in silver &/or gold
Rumors and indications of large trades involving hollow gold bars filled with lead or tungsten
Signs of avaiability of PM rounds reaching the bottom of the barrel
Historic unemployment and foreclosures getting worse with no relief on the horizon
Massive, unsustainable socialist policies adopted by the current administration
A looming, unresolved bubble in the commercial real estate market
Possibility of combinations of the above - &/or some new crisis - causing another dramatic stock market crash as in Sept./Oct. 2008
Congress threatening to grow a spine and audit the Federal Reserve


If this this adds up to you as exiting PMs, you must be the Fed.
I am forced to keep assets in equities to earn dividends. My fingers gingerly grasp the trap door string for that exit and they are twitching.