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main1event
2nd December 2009, 10:08
Gold has gone parabolic, when gold does correct it will be a doozy. Its impossible to tell where its headed, it could double or triple from here. It could also have a mild 100 point correction, and then go parabolic again. There is no TA or Fundamentals that can possibly account for any variable. I will say this Gold is undervalued. A fair value would be around $5000.00 an ounce from the amount of fiat floating around in the world.

Silver, looks fine but so far its having a little trouble clearing $19.00, yes its above it but there is a pocket full of resistance all the way up to $19.75. I believe that will be over come shortly and a move up to $21.00 is in the works.

$21.00 is going to be a really tough nut to crack. Its a resistance line going back nearly 30 years. When that line does get crossed, the sentiment for Silver will turn from negative to positive. The bull market in Silver will be confirmed. We may go parabolic from there.

Typically Gold and Silver will run until April, so you can imagine where we could go from here.

SilverMeTimbers
2nd December 2009, 19:31
April huh? I just got into to silver about three weeks ago and have been buying as much bars and stocks as I can. If my day job holds out I should be able to hit my stack goal by then. Won't be enough for a window seat but I will still enjoy the ride up high. In it for the long term so there might be a dip or two along the line.... or not.

What is Truth?
2nd December 2009, 19:44
My concern is that precious metals are leaving other commodities such as oil behind. Yes, oil has made a big run up too in recent months but it has flattening out recently and is not moving up along with gold and silver anymore.

I'm starting to think that perhaps gold and silver have gotten ahead of the falling dollar as far as real commodity inflation goes. That doesn't mean I don't think precious metals are a good place to be over the long term. But short term speculators have entered this market and if or when they decide to drop the hot potato there will be a big short term correction.

Argentum
2nd December 2009, 20:30
If want to know how oil is doing, look at the shipping companies who transport some 90% of the worlds oil supply. They are not seeing any demand increase to the west. It's flowing east.

What is Truth?
2nd December 2009, 20:38
If want to know how oil is doing, look at the shipping companies who transport some 90% of the worlds oil supply. They are not seeing any demand increase to the west. It's flowing east.

Interesting, but my point was oil's price isn't keeping up, not even anywhere close, to gold and silver. Same for copper and the other base metals. Certainly the price of food isn't moving up as fast as precious metals.

main1event
2nd December 2009, 20:55
Okay lets talk oil. Oil started at $10.00 and went to 150.00 a barrel. Thats a move of 15X isnt it? Gold is only up 4x from its low, so you can see how undervalued gold is here. Same with Silver. Look at Rhodium it went from around $500.00 to 10,000

When commodities go parabolic they double, triple or just simply explode. Uranium went from $15.00 or so to $150.00 before it fell.

Gold is going to go up at least 15 x from its start at of $280.00 So perhaps $4000.00 or so is in the works right now.

What is Truth?
2nd December 2009, 21:01
Okay lets talk oil. Oil started at $10.00 and went to 150.00 a barrel. Thats a move of 15X isnt it? Gold is only up 4x from its low, so you can see how undervalued gold is here. Same with Silver. Look at Rhodium it went from around $500.00 to 10,000

When commodities go parabolic they double, triple or just simply explode. Uranium went from $15.00 or so to $150.00 before it fell.

Gold is going to go up at least 15 x from its start at of $280.00 So perhaps $4000.00 or so is in the works right now.

$10, $150...........both are history. Times change. I'm interested in what's happening now. If gold and silver are getting too far ahead of other commodities now then that spells b u b b l e.

main1event
2nd December 2009, 21:08
$10, $150...........both are history. Times change. I'm interested in what's happening now. If gold and silver are getting too far ahead of other commodities now then that spells b u b b l e.

A bubble happens when something doubles or triples in a very short amount of time. A lousy 20% move in a few weeks is not a bubble. I've seen apple and google do that in 1 day.

What is Truth?
2nd December 2009, 21:13
A bubble happens when something doubles or triples in a very short amount of time. A lousy 20% move in a few weeks is not a bubble. I've seen apple and google do that in 1 day.

Little bubble. We have seen a lot of "lousy" 20% moves disappear in a lot shorter time than a few weeks. Most of them came when $30 silver was being assumed to be a sure thing around here.

Relayer
3rd December 2009, 02:18
NASDAQ Bull Market = 950-5000 Time Frame 5 years/20 Quarters
NASDAQ Bubble = 1500-5000 Time Frame Q4 1998-Q1 2000 6 Quarters

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a6/NASDAQ_IXIC_-_dot-com_bubble.png

Gold Bull Market = 2002-Present 7 Years
Gold Market Bubble = ?

It may be possible to anticipate a parabolic trend, but IMO there is no way to detect a bubble on a chart until after the fact. A parabolic reversal does not necessarily end the major long term trend. The popping of a bubble does.

The characteristics of a market in a bubble can be observed. Study the characteristics of a market in a bubble a la NASDAQ. Compare them to the present market in gold and decide for yourself. I have and would say.....not even close.


Further:

IMO Applying the word bubble to refer to a cycle top within a bull market is a misuse of the term.

Regarding the term parabolic (used to denote a sharp incline in price on a chart). It is derived from the concept parabola. A parabola is a U shaped curve that can be defined in diverse ways. It seems to me the general/popular use of the term parabolic is applied rather subjectively. What I am getting at here is that when in general people talk about a parabolic move in a market, they are only referring to the upward inclination of the parabolic curve.....in total disregard of its other parameters i.e, focus and vertex. As for the technical indicator Parabolic SAR (parabolic stop and reverse), I am not familiar with how it has been constructed as a parabolic plane. I would think that in order to be useful, the full form of the parabola should be used.


http://xahlee.org/SpecialPlaneCurves_dir/Parabola_dir/parabola.html