PDA

View Full Version : What does $2000.00 gold mean for Silver



main1event
1st December 2009, 08:21
If we are to believe there is a gold to silver ratio of 15:1, then Silver would translate to 133 Silver. If you are conservative and believe in a more relaxed 20:1 ratio then we are talking $100.00 Silver. It will happen, but how fast depends on how quickly Gold gets to 2000.

Asheron
1st December 2009, 08:29
$133 oz Silver, I agree!

Consider there is 17 Oz of Silver for every 1 Oz of Gold in the earths Crust

hippiebrian
1st December 2009, 09:03
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the days of 15/1 are over. We'll be lucky if we ever see 50/1. I'll keep buying though, silver is still a good investment.

Steadfast
1st December 2009, 09:32
Pray for 15:1

but due to EFTs
count on 50:1

Thus $40.00 per oz. Silver

main1event
1st December 2009, 09:39
You guys are so pessimistic. Just wait until nobody can get real silver. Industry needs physical believe me they wont be buying the SLV, they'll want to take delivery. They will start stockpiling silver when they cant get any.

There is plenty of reason to believe we will see 15:1 again.

hippiebrian
1st December 2009, 09:57
15:1 only worked when silver was monetized, and it was hard to control then. Like it or not, silver right now is considered an industrial commodity, and that just cannot, without controls, support a 15:1 ratio any time soon. I hope for 50:1 some day, and we'll all be better off (if we're holding).

main1event
1st December 2009, 10:03
I love people who say there is no way. Reminds me a few years ago when people said there was no way real estate could fall 50%.

Back in 1980 when silver shot to $50.00 an ounce it was not a so called monetary metal. Just because your government says it isnt a monetary metal doesnt mean it isnt. Too many people have been brainwashed. BTW, Silver is a monetary metal, it says so in the constitution. The US Mint uses Silver in coinage. Other countries also mint Silver and a face value is placed on it. So yes silver is a monetary metal.

ccjoe
1st December 2009, 10:04
You guys are so pessimistic. Just wait until nobody can get real silver. Industry needs physical believe me they wont be buying the SLV, they'll want to take delivery. They will start stockpiling silver when they cant get any.

There is plenty of reason to believe we will see 15:1 again.
Main--When gold hits 2000 this spring 2010, silver will be in the 40 range> 50/1 ratio.
By the end of 2010 gold will be at 2500 and silver at 100 for a 25/1 as industry begins to panic with silver supplies running out.
By 2012, gold will be at 4500 and silver at 300 for the 15/1 ratio which may stay there for the next several years.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1/1 ratio as Ted Butler and MANY others are starting to realize how quickly silver is being depleted.
As you know Main, studying this stuff as I do, there were 16 straight years 1990-2006 where demand outstripped supply of ACTUAL silver use.
Can you imagine the next several years how LOW the supply will be and how high the demand will be?!

main1event
1st December 2009, 10:07
I believe anything is possible and one thing I believe is silver will be at least 100 an ounce, which is inflation adjusted.

hippiebrian
1st December 2009, 10:10
Main--When gold hits 2000 this spring 2010, silver will be in the 40 range> 50/1 ratio.
By the end of 2010 gold will be at 2500 and silver at 100 for a 25/1 as industry begins to panic with silver supplies running out.
By 2012, gold will be at 4500 and silver at 300 for the 15/1 ratio which may stay there for the next several years.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1/1 ratio as Ted Butler and MANY others are starting to realize how quickly silver is being depleted.
As you know Main, studying this stuff as I do, there were 16 straight years 1990-2006 where demand outstripped supply of ACTUAL silver use.
Can you imagine the next several years how LOW the supply will be and how high the demand will be?!

Can I quote you on this this summer?

I hope you're right, but in the mean time, I'll lean towards cautious reality.

hippiebrian
1st December 2009, 10:17
I love people who say there is no way. Reminds me a few years ago when people said there was no way real estate could fall 50%.

Back in 1980 when silver shot to $50.00 an ounce it was not a so called monetary metal. Just because your government says it isnt a monetary metal doesnt mean it isnt. Too many people have been brainwashed. BTW, Silver is a monetary metal, it says so in the constitution. The US Mint uses Silver in coinage. Other countries also mint Silver and a face value is placed on it. So yes silver is a monetary metal.


Would that make copper, nickel and aluminum (the metals most of the world's coins are minted in) monetary metals also, even bigger than silver?

What I was talking about was the metal standards in our money. When we were on the bi-metallic standard, the gold/silver ratio was controlled (not very successfully, by the way) at 15:1. No one is on the metals standard anymore, so there is no attempt at control, and on it's own silver has shown it cannot maintain the 15:1 ratio. Really, if we can get 50:1, and gold holds it's own, that's big profit and realistic.

Oh, and the reason it went to 50 bucks in '80 was gross manipulation, and people went to jail for it.

UmassSteve
1st December 2009, 10:28
$133 oz Silver, I agree!

Consider there is 17 Oz of Silver for every 1 Oz of Gold in the earths Crust

True, but that was before we started using silver for things that consumed silver. Now we have more gold above ground than silver, and we keep burning through silver in industry while we keep hoarding gold. I don't think it'll happen so soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if silver shot up to historic ratios with gold when we realize that silver is more fundamental to our way of life than gold is.

DaleFromCalgary
1st December 2009, 11:31
"I hear stories ta make ya weep about men who know/appreciate PMs, the little woman doesn't, and they have to sneak to acquire PMs as if they were carrying on a hot and heavy clandestine love affair. Meanwhile, the wife with her ideas is giving her hubs/family's future a "major screwing". And without a damned bit of pleasure about it."

This is a common problem in Canada's current housing bubble, with wives insisting the husband buy a house. A few years later, they're divorced and both living in poverty. All kinds of case stories over at www.greaterfool.ca

Stamp collectors have the same problem hiding their purchases.

Steadfast
1st December 2009, 11:54
Main--When gold hits 2000 this spring 2010, silver will be in the 40 range> 50/1 ratio.
By the end of 2010 gold will be at 2500 and silver at 100 for a 25/1 as industry begins to panic with silver supplies running out.
By 2012, gold will be at 4500 and silver at 300 for the 15/1 ratio which may stay there for the next several years.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1/1 ratio as Ted Butler and MANY others are starting to realize how quickly silver is being depleted.
As you know Main, studying this stuff as I do, there were 16 straight years 1990-2006 where demand outstripped supply of ACTUAL silver use.
Can you imagine the next several years how LOW the supply will be and how high the demand will be?!

I like the way your talking!
I would love to see you be correct...

We shall soon see.

main1event
1st December 2009, 11:54
Would that make copper, nickel and aluminum (the metals most of the world's coins are minted in) monetary metals also, even bigger than silver?


Oh, and the reason it went to 50 bucks in '80 was gross manipulation, and people went to jail for it.

I knew you were going to take the bait. Yes, they are, you can go anywhere in the world and trade in your copper for their currency. You'd have to carry alot to make it worth your while but it is a monetary metal. The only problem with these less precious metals is that they are not a good store of value.

Because gold and silver are precious metals, they are more difficult to come by so they keep their store of value.

Mighty_Men_of_Baltimore
1st December 2009, 11:59
15:1 only worked when silver was monetized, and it was hard to control then. Like it or not, silver right now is considered an industrial commodity, and that just cannot, without controls, support a 15:1 ratio any time soon. I hope for 50:1 some day, and we'll all be better off (if we're holding).

The rush to gold is on. Russia, India, Vietnam, China, Sri Lanka have all recently announced they are buyers of hundreds of tonnes of gold. This is only the beginning. Once the world's central banks run out of gold to buy (and it won't be a year), what will happen? Will they throw up their hands in surrender or will some of them start to buy silver instead?

I'll bet on silver returning to that 15-1 ratio.

skijake
1st December 2009, 12:14
Would that make copper, nickel and aluminum (the metals most of the world's coins are minted in) monetary metals also, even bigger than silver?

What I was talking about was the metal standards in our money. When we were on the bi-metallic standard, the gold/silver ratio was controlled (not very successfully, by the way) at 15:1. No one is on the metals standard anymore, so there is no attempt at control, and on it's own silver has shown it cannot maintain the 15:1 ratio. Really, if we can get 50:1, and gold holds it's own, that's big profit and realistic.

Oh, and the reason it went to 50 bucks in '80 was gross manipulation, and people went to jail for it.

I think primarily the wrong people did the jail time.
The Hunt's had the right idea they just went about it wrong playing in the Devil's Den with paper contracts.
The paper backers had to call the government in to change the rules mid game so they wouldn't be overwhelmed and then they called the Hunt;s the crooks.
Lesson learned. Don't expect to be treated fairly playing in paper, buy the real deal and you will be successful no matter the ratio.:cool:

hippiebrian
1st December 2009, 13:27
I think primarily the wrong people did the jail time.
The Hunt's had the right idea they just went about it wrong playing in the Devil's Den with paper contracts.
The paper backers had to call the government in to change the rules mid game so they wouldn't be overwhelmed and then they called the Hunt;s the crooks.
Lesson learned. Don't expect to be treated fairly playing in paper, buy the real deal and you will be successful no matter the ratio.:cool:

My point exactly! Whether I'm right or wrong about the ratio, whether it's a monetary metal or not, etc., the bottom line is I own silver because it will increase over the years, and probably beat inflation, and there will come a time in my old age where I'll be glad I stashed some. Everything else is banter, really. Just a distraction.

Just so you people realize why I'm here...I do plan on coming out ahead!

akak
1st December 2009, 13:46
My point exactly! Whether I'm right or wrong about the ratio, whether it's a monetary metal or not, etc., the bottom line is I own silver because it will increase over the years, and probably beat inflation, and there will come a time in my old age where I'll be glad I stashed some. Everything else is banter, really. Just a distraction.

Just so you people realize why I'm here...I do plan on coming out ahead!

Most Americans five years from now will probably consider themselves lucky to come out even, after the inevitable inflation/hyperinflation/currency collapse. And most, sadly, will not, as the majority do not in every such monetary event.

wdwexe
1st December 2009, 14:06
I think primarily the wrong people did the jail time.
The Hunt's had the right idea they just went about it wrong playing in the Devil's Den with paper contracts.
The paper backers had to call the government in to change the rules mid game so they wouldn't be overwhelmed and then they called the Hunt;s the crooks.
Lesson learned. Don't expect to be treated fairly playing in paper, buy the real deal and you will be successful no matter the ratio.

Yes SkiJake. Why have'nt the regulators gone to jail yet? Why don't the general public notice what JPMC has done. Paying them to rip our lips off!

Should have been $25 in 2005

sharehard
1st December 2009, 15:53
You guys are so pessimistic. Just wait until nobody can get real silver. Industry needs physical believe me they wont be buying the SLV, they'll want to take delivery. They will start stockpiling silver when they cant get any.

There is plenty of reason to believe we will see 15:1 again.

I hope you are right, but I wonder about the fundamentals applying. Consider platinum which is 30 times more rare than gold - but not 30 times more valuable. Do you think silver will rise to its true ratio because industrial demand will force it to? Does this not appply to platinum because there is (will be) less industrial demand for that metal relative to silver?

silverheartbone
1st December 2009, 19:01
5:1
which seems just about right to me.

paper_no_more
1st December 2009, 19:39
Very interesting thread.

I watch EBay closely, always looking for bargains. I saw today many of the bigger sellers bumping up their prices significantly. I see $50 an ounce by April, maybe way, way higher if we have another market collapse.

btw, a few minutes ago on Ebay,I bagged an old 10oz Silvertowne bar for $207.50 and just $14 postage insured.

Argentum
1st December 2009, 19:41
We must all consider the down side of anything we do. Risk management - which we have seen has been tossed out the window on Wall Street, Main Street, and any other street you care to think about.....

Silver is money. The Maple is stamped with such... as an example. My thoughts are not always how much I can make, but more to the question of how much I might loose.

I've worked damn hard and long. I don't want the government taking out 15% (soon to be 29% or more) in cap gains. I am looking out for not only next year, but five, 10, 15, and 20 years.

NO OTHER INVESTMENT - NONE comes close to the risk/reward ratio of metal. Screw the gold/silver ratio for anything other than a trade. I have both btw.... always have. Plat and Pally too for that mater.

Silver IS more rare that gold. Just the way it is. And it's going to become more rare. Even our own Government lists silver as the one of the top three or so metals to become economically unavailable.....

Argue today about $20 - $100 silver. That is only a beginning.

Oh, bought a box of ASE's today :cool:

paper_no_more
1st December 2009, 19:44
You bought 'a box' of ASE's, was...that one of THE boxes? :p

paper_no_more
1st December 2009, 19:50
Ah heck, my dealer has just upped his ASE Monster Box again, in around 3 weeks, I seen them go from £7300 to £7600 and a few minutes ago, now £7923.

The writing is clearly on the wall. I have a few hundred £K in stocks, but I think I will sell some out to load up on a few boxes of ASE.

The price rise scares me as much as it makes me excited.

Ardent Listener
1st December 2009, 19:57
5:1
which seems just about right to me.


1:1 and silver will continue to climb. Haven't any of you guys read Ted Butler? :D

Craigo3
1st December 2009, 23:18
The “Gold/Silver Ratio” is a ratio that has been used to compare the relative
performance of gold versus silver for many years.
Historically, the normal gold/silver ratio has always been approximately 1/13.5, or in other words, 13.5 ounces of silver would buy one ounce of gold.

Geologists tell us that silver occurs naturally in the earths crust at a ratio of, you guessed it, 13.5 times more often than gold.

It doesnt take a great leap of intelligence to deduce that yes, it makes sense that the market ratio would be about 1/13.5
For a handful of years, however, we have seen this ratio greatly askew.
Today we find that it takes as high as 85 or 90 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.
Anyone who has studied these markets knows this is highly out of whack, and must, at some point, correct to the norm.
More importantly, history shows us that markets do not just correct, but they over-correct. Meaning that if the normal gold/silver ratio is 1/13.5 then when it over corrects there stands a good chance the ratio will may look like something along the lines of 1/10, or 1/8, some analysts even think we will see 1/5 and 1/2, some even think we will see 1/1.

What does this mean for the price of silver?
Well I will give you an example.
If we see gold go to $2000 an ounce, and the gold/silver ratio ends up topping at 1/10, then that would give us a silver price of $200 an ounce.

SilverLite
1st December 2009, 23:44
1:1 and silver will continue to climb. Haven't any of you guys read Ted Butler? :D
Ardent, don't forget about Peter Schiff...:)

I'd love to see 1:1. Heck i'd love to see X:1. :)