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View Full Version : GSachs Raises Oil Forecast to $141: silver back to 20$?



strongman shelford
16th May 2008, 05:19
I am reading the latest news about OIL here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agTpO3xm88nQ

I feel it should be hard to see silver below 17$ . It should go back to 20$ this year ,right?

Richard
16th May 2008, 05:38
Perhpas delayed but I think 30 is more like it!

As for 140/barrel oil... I've been reading 200/barrel and personally I think 5 dollars per gallon perhaps by mid-summer is far from out of the question.

Irons
16th May 2008, 06:07
I agree with you both, oil won't stop going up and silver's next run will go well past the the $21 mark this time.

TechGnosis
16th May 2008, 06:18
Perhpas delayed but I think 30 is more like it!

As for 140/barrel oil... I've been reading 200/barrel and personally I think 5 dollars per gallon perhaps by mid-summer is far from out of the question.

I hope the price does go down to something like that; at the moment, here in Japan, it's about 157-160 yen per litre. The American addiction to exceptionally cheap gasoline is coming to an end, and the world will probably be the better for it. Surely Americans can find a way to run their cars on the greasy stuff they currently eat, and simultaneously alleviate their obesity problem...

I assume most people have seen the documentary The End of Suburbia? Explores the likely consequences of the end of the era of cheap oil...

You can view it online or download it from my DivShare account: http://www.divshare.com/download/4021243-e4f

nuslvrkwen
16th May 2008, 14:29
What gets me is today's rally having silver spot up nearly to $17. That price was considered to be where the metal price would turn upward. Well, every one of these rallies we've had for silver since March have happened on a Friday. There's no way FOR a rally to continue! But any entity SELLING today will get cash to pay bills!

Meanwhile reading the threads here, silver bullion and coin is still hard to take possession of.

This morning I read a story about George W being in Saudi Arabia and telling them to increase production of oil by 100,000 barrels a day OR the US would cancel it's $4.1 million dollar arms deal scheduled to ship to Saudi Arabia in a few weeks! NOW, Bloomberg is running a story the Saudi's will increase production by 300,000 barrels a day! This production increase by decided by the Saudis May 10th in response to its' customers requests, including the United States. So does George get them to produce ANOTHER 100,000 barrels on top of the 300,000? Or is this just late media 'show & tell'? To quote Peter Beutel President of Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, CT: "It's just a token increase but it shows that the Saudis realize just how important it is for the President not to come back empty handed. This is about a lot more than oil, the special relationship between the countries is at stake."

Glad we have this special relationship. The price of oil will NOT go down. I'm of the belief oil will be at $200 a barrel by Christmas. If silver gets BEYOND $17 after Monday next week - we'll be able to think things have either slipped by the people bent on keeping the price low for something that's physically NOT AROUND as silver bullion or coin. Or that it is finally free of whatever constraints that held it down since February.

Richard
16th May 2008, 14:49
I hope the price does go down to something like that; at the moment, here in Japan, it's about 157-160 yen per litre. The American addiction to exceptionally cheap gasoline is coming to an end, and the world will probably be the better for it. Surely Americans can find a way to run their cars on the greasy stuff they currently eat, and simultaneously alleviate their obesity problem...

I assume most people have seen the documentary The End of Suburbia? Explores the likely consequences of the end of the era of cheap oil...

You can view it online or download it from my DivShare account: http://www.divshare.com/download/4021243-e4f

ROFLMAO!!!

I'll pass, as I always do with anything criticizing America's so called addiction. And btw, it's the US; Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chille... Those are America too. Anyway...

There's plenty of cheap oil in the world AND within the borders of these untied states. We need cheap oil because it takes quite a bit to transport through and across this massive land. Addiction my ass... A need is a need and if it weren't for that need being filled, I seriously doubt Japan would have any world signigifcance today...

It's not about the individual driver, obese or not, fast food or not (do be serious... biofuels are the solution?!). It's about commercial use, the trucking industry. If that freight doesn't get hauled at a reasonable fuel price... can't hybrid and bio that problem away. Tonage is tonage. The individual driver, even all combined, is but a drop in the bucket. The suburban commuter could locate to a city, but those centers need to supplied and without cheaper fuel...

Well, as I said, what would Asian exports mean? Where would that leave Asia if "America" were to suddenly cut it's use of petroleum to the zero that the rest of the world is so damned eager to see?

DaveK
16th May 2008, 15:33
ROFLMAO!!!
It's not about the individual driver, obese or not, fast food or not (do be serious... biofuels are the solution?!). It's about commercial use, the trucking industry.

Are you suggesting that non-commercial fuel use is insignificant in relationship to commercial use?

If so, please do go look up the numbers.

You are of course right that fuel cost is important to commercial transportation (there's a reason Warren Buffett has been buying railroad shares), but we don't 'need' all that unless you take the partyline "the American way of life will not be compromised".

I don't know if it's as serious as some of the PO doomers make it out to be, but it's not as trivial as you paint it either. Better to err on the side of conservation, IMO.

nuslvrkwen
16th May 2008, 16:41
You can't get nationalistic about this. This is a world speculation issue. It's people with money to speculate speculating on oil despite the hardship it's creating for the people who aren't speculating on it. Including hardships on themselves!

People in the US are really riled up over the oil issue, and it's NOT because we don't have any! The oil industry is so antiquated it's not even funny. The actual production part of the oil industry. Prices are high due to the way crude is produced. And world wide speculation. People here ARE cutting back on driving despite what truckers say. And it's making a dent! The California refiners of Valero & Chevron are angry! All I can do is laugh. At the companies. Check out the stock advisor Jim Jubak's (msnmoney) article about how the stock investor can make money on oil shares now! Obviously conservation isn't on the advisor's radar! We've got so called experts TELLING the average investor to BUY SHARES forget conservation!

Now, having the President go to his friends in Saudi Arabia and basically try to strong arm THEM into more production when they'd already agreed to do so BEFORE the buffoon arrived is too much BS for me to deal with. For over a year now truckers in California have been selling trucks and trucking businesses aren't expanding. They can't. Crude processing hasn't changed since the dust bowl days. You'd get more gasoline out of crude if you'd upgrade it's processing. How many upper level execs in the oil business are right now trying to voice this realization in a 'professional manner'? When THEY should have been developing new ways to do this very thing when they were boring us to death over their profits?

The oil companies not only get stock investment money from people buying their stock direct - the average investor is STUCK with oil companies in their mutual fund mixes. I'm not impressed with what ever dividends people have received from oil companies over the years. It's a lousy 7 - 9%. Jim Jubak claims his shares have returned 11% on his investment. What ever, what it really is is 'put up with' money! You accept the dividend and it's basically saying to the oil company: "Thank you for my share of the bribe you got goin. We know you ain't upgraded your exploration and processing techniques since the Model T rolled off the assembly line. This lousy 7 - 9% is cool. As long as nothing goes wrong, or blows up!" Junk's hitting the fan now. Let's see how far those inflated profits go.

Gasoline is $8+ a gallon in London. $9+ in France. They have large national trucking in both countries. They continue to pay and drive. Why I don't know, when both countries have great trains and public transport. They can ship via rail also! I know there's a difference between gas prices and diesel. Two different ways of processing from crude. Just last week or two some people were arrested in India for selling vegetable oil as diesel to truckers! What do you think, was THIS speculation? You bet it was.

I would not be happy with nuclear power plants supplying my energy as in Japan when there's always the threat of earthquake. Our plants' current output is about 30% and they are old. Japan has never had a nuclear accident with any of its' power grid. It's come to rely on it. San Onofre has leaked 'hot water' more than once. Nuke plants wouldn't go in California. Try finding a place around here to put one, that wouldn't have to compete with real estate prices! :D Things being crappy is the mother of invention.

Richard
16th May 2008, 16:46
Are you suggesting that non-commercial fuel use is insignificant in relationship to commercial use?

Yeeee-ep, I sure am! When I drove, my rig got on average about 7 mpg and I drove 2500-3500 miles a week. Now, unless people commute massive distances, there is simply no way 20-30 mpg cars, trucks, SUVs are going to beat that. And we haven't even gotten to trains, water travel/transport... Afterwhich we would have to look at farming, mining, construction and maintainence, and military use...


If so, please do go look up the numbers.

Okay... Which set? There's scores of them. But, they basically come down to two pictures, which... oh, ****... doesn't make it any easier, really. I've looked up so many numbers, that I've figured it pretty much comes down to guessing anyway. Each set of numbers has it's bias, depending on what side of the coin the presentor is on. Wanna make it look like "American's" are nothing but oil-pigs? You got it. Wanna make it out to be infinite? You got that too.

Ie, your guess is as good as mine or even the experts, whatever side they're on. I sure won't claim to know how much there is/isn't left.

But what I do know is this: Even if we switched to some entirely different, non "fossil" fuel we would still need lubrication for our mechanized way of life. And if earth doesn't go that route, then you need to feed people more so they can do the work of machines. Therefore, and yes quite simply, conservation of petroleum can not be a solution no matter how hard we try or don't. As it's name it implies, it's not really anything at all. I mean no disrespect to a man of your intelligence, that's just what I've come to realize.

How can we err on the side of caution?

That question has yet to be successfuly answered, imv.

As for the good ol' USWay ... I see no reason why all nations can not achieve the same thing. I can see a troubled road ahead, but you have to understand... I take very long views in these sorts of matters. My optimism comes from the base that, as I said in another post long ago, that energy can't be created or destoryed. But in the longer run, I would bet on the latter not being true. I'm prattling...

Point is, if things really are limited then we might as well hang ourselves because each generation is bound to inherit less and less and less, making reality a pyramid scheme and ultimately a vicious game. So... err away, my man! Reality will prove one way or another what is, not our arguing on what neither of us truly know. :)

But all the same... I think crude is quite abundant and perhaps infinite in supply even on this tiny rock we call earth. If I'm wrong, well... I wouldn't be better of being right!

Richard
16th May 2008, 16:53
Glad we have this special relationship. The price of oil will NOT go down. I'm of the belief oil will be at $200 a barrel by Christmas.

No sir, it certainly will not no matter how much OPEC kicks out. They done said that much, but you know politics... Dumb and unjust as usual!

At this rate, they should defeat themselves in a relatively short period of time. I hope within the year, but realisticly at least a decade.

Trvlr45
25th May 2008, 00:49
The oil market is rigged just like the silver market and every other market. We have enough oil, coal and natural gas in the United States to last us for hundreds of years.

Adolph Hitler was making "synthetic gasoline" when he was around and we can't? We can make gasoline out of coal. Coal is the same exact thing as oil. The only difference is the amount of water in the earth where it is found. Last but not least oil is abiotic. It is manufactured naturally by the earth. It is a renewablt resource.

This pack of lies we have been fed over the years has nothing to do with the truth that's for sure. There is no reason whatsoever for us to be paying a penny more than a dollar for a gallon of gas.

The United States economy is being intentionally shut down by our own government. I find it hard to believe that EVERYONE can't see that yet. Thanks to all the "Free Trade" agreements our elected officials have signed over the years once we hit a depression worse than 1929 the rest of the world will buy our country out from under our asses for pennies on the dollar.

A Saudi prince is now owner of 5.5% of fox news. The biggest single shareholder. The Saudi's are working a deal to by Citi-Group. The Indiana toll road is owned by a company based in Spain just as the Flyover in Chicago. Ricky Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania is in the process of selling the PA Turnpike to a company in Spain. Mexico has more control over our southern border than we do and the Law of the Seas Treaty is being pushed through behind our backs giving the international community more control over the world's oceans which will take ours away. The UN owns the majority of our National Parks.

As for the amount of fuel we consume. If it is such a big problem then why is our government artificially populating this country with illegal immigration? HMMMMMM? We are being bullshitted. It's that simple.

This country is going to fold because of what they are doing. Has anyone stopped to think that the vast majority of people in this country literally won't be able to get to work if the price of gas goes much over 5 bucks a gallon?

This isn't an accident and there is NO oil shortage and NO man-made climate change. Carbon is GOOD for the environment. The carbon emissions are what make the plants grow. It amazes me that our government has managed to get the people of this country to actually commit economic suicide.

I drive a truck for a living and it is costing right around $1000 to fill it up. Sometimes twice a week. This is insanity. Pure and simple and the downfall of the United States in the making.

This environmentalist movement is the biggest threat this country has ever faced and it is the citizens who are cheering for more of it. Amazing! Simply amazing.

Oil will hit $200 a barrel so since gold follows oil and silver follows gold we can expect silver to rise but I have to wonder if that will make the downfall of this country worth it.

Trvlr45
25th May 2008, 01:12
I hope the price does go down to something like that; at the moment, here in Japan, it's about 157-160 yen per litre. The American addiction to exceptionally cheap gasoline is coming to an end, and the world will probably be the better for it. Surely Americans can find a way to run their cars on the greasy stuff they currently eat, and simultaneously alleviate their obesity problem...

Hi TechGnosis,

It seems to me that you have probably never been to America just as I have never been to Japan.

What you have to understand is the size of our country compared to yours. For people work in San Fransisco a daily commute of 50 miles or more EACH way is not out of the ordinary. The cost of living in the Los Angeles area in Southern California is so high that some of the police have to live so far away they have made temporary housing for them and they only go home on the weekends.

Due to our government passing ridiculous eco-weenie laws and taxing everything that moves and doesn't move to death along with political correctness in the workplace they have forced a huge amount of our manufacturing base out of the country and people have had to move to find employment sometimes hundreds of miles away. Basically, if you want to visit even immediate family you may have to drive hundreds of miles to do so.

The break up of the family is a standard communist idea which is one of the resaons Feminism was promoted, and unfortunately accepted here. No amily nearby to support you? Vote for a government handout. That's how it works.

This country needs cheap fuel to operate. Without it, we fall and that is the goal. Japan won't be doing to well with us out of comission. Keep that in mind.

As for the obesity problem. Well, you got that right and we can thank the FDA for a large part of that problem along with the worlds biggest corporations. They don't spike everything we eat with Aspertame, Sugar and Corn Syrup for nothing. I believe it was a Japanese CEO that said, "Americans are stupid and lazy" and he was right for the most part.

Trvlr45
25th May 2008, 01:29
You are of course right that fuel cost is important to commercial transportation (there's a reason Warren Buffett has been buying railroad shares), but we don't 'need' all that unless you take the partyline "the American way of life will not be compromised".

The American way of life WILL be compromised. George Bush said it in a radio adress and so did Bill Clinton. You think they just want to reduce our standard of living a little. I din't think you have any idea what they really intend to do. Silver will probably go to the moon. Maybe $2000 an ounce but I have to wonder. Will it be worth it? Keep in mind there is WELL over 500 trillion in derivatives debt out there and whether anyone realizes it or not, if you have a 401K or a pension or anything like that you are probably invested in derivatives. Warren Buffet has warned for a long time that derivatives are just a ticking time bomb.

Richard
25th May 2008, 02:37
The oil market is rigged just like the silver market and every other market. We have enough oil, coal and natural gas in the United States to last us for hundreds of years... Last but not least oil is abiotic. It is manufactured naturally by the earth. It is a renewablt resource.

Abiotic is still just a fringe theory that hasn't been directly proven, though when wells once thought dry begin to produce again, one's mind can't help but think the abiotic theory has at least some truth to it. But where the heck do all the hydro-carbons spewed out from volcanos come from? That pretty much clinches it, for me. I may not know how exactly it all works, but I don't have to.

But it may be more than renewable. It's quite possibly a GROWING resource, which just might turn out to be problematic in some distant future...


This pack of lies we have been fed over the years has nothing to do with the truth that's for sure. There is no reason whatsoever for us to be paying a penny more than a dollar for a gallon of gas.

Dude, rephrase that... if you have but 20 ounce of silver you could easily run your rig for at least 5 years, according to my ongoing studies. Probably more as that 5 years progressed. So you could say

"...and not a troy grain more!" :)

Anyway, I'd really to talk more about this subject but it's a silver forum and I just barely managed to squeeze in a reference so...

You bring up pretty much all the points that needed saying though. It's all crap. If the authorities were right about any of the junk-science they ram down peoples' brains, then we wouldn't even be able to burn anything at all because reality would be quite static and so would disallow the knowledge that anything could burn at all in the first place! lol

Trvlr45
25th May 2008, 18:41
Hi Richard,

I hope if and when everything else dows go to pot silver heads to the moon. You're mention of the volcanoes is a good one. No one ever pays attention to the fact that Mt. St. Helens put more carbon in the etmosphere in one blow than every car and truck on earth ever could. Maybe that is what has caused the cooling since 1999. Who know?

In any case. You're right this is a silver forum.

JesterJay
25th May 2008, 19:38
That it is getting COOLER!?

Dang, and I'm sitting here at my computer NAKED because I thought it was global WARMING!

I wish someone would TELL me about these things sooner.

Has anyone seen my muff?

Guess I'm chillin' now,
JesterJay



Hi Richard,

I hope if and when everything else dows go to pot silver heads to the moon. You're mention of the volcanoes is a good one. No one ever pays attention to the fact that Mt. St. Helens put more carbon in the etmosphere in one blow than every car and truck on earth ever could. Maybe that is what has caused the cooling since 1999. Who know?

In any case. You're right this is a silver forum.

waynetheking
25th May 2008, 20:35
i heard mike mesak on HSN say that the us gov. decided to stop making egales as of this weekend? has anyone heard or read anything??

Richard
26th May 2008, 00:19
i heard mike mesak on HSN say that the us gov. decided to stop making egales as of this weekend? has anyone heard or read anything??

I sure haven't, but I'll keep my open for it even though I don't by eagles. Any shortage news is good news!

JesterJay: Put some clothes on, please... the time to celebrate wildly will come soon enough!

paker
26th May 2008, 08:25
JesterJay: Put some clothes on, please...

Yeah before someone brings back the "hole in the ozone layer disaster" again.