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View Full Version : Precious Metals / Agriculture / Base Metals - Which will outperform the rest?



chroNick
23rd November 2009, 00:14
Personally I don't have any opinion. But I don't discount the possibility that other commodities can outperform silver. What are your takes?

JesterJay
23rd November 2009, 00:16
No,
Silver wins over the next 10 years.
JesterJay



Personally I don't have any opinion. But I don't discount the possibility that other commodities can outperform silver. What are your takes?

ryshay
23rd November 2009, 00:34
Agriculture will beat all--but you can't stack pork bellies.

You gotta stack PMs.

Jim Rogers has a new commodities fund, if you are inclined to play the paper game.

but in this environment, I'd work on your stack first.

SilverLite
23rd November 2009, 00:55
In addition to Silver, I'll stack some port bellies and butts on my grill...good eats! :)

I downloaded an app from Kitco on my iPhone that keeps showing Rhodium skyrocketing. Haven't even looked to see if its available locally and probably won't cause of the price.

Cup-of-Ruin
23rd November 2009, 00:55
A bucket of prawns or a bunch of bananas don't last very long, they do not hold their value, so that's why they are not considered money, silver and gold is money, if you have money then you will be able to purchase food. In a few years time when farms are very cheap and PM's are very expensive it may be a good idea to exchange a handful of ounces for some prime agricultural land, and then lease it to the hungry serfs to farm it for you.

SilverLite
23rd November 2009, 01:01
A bucket of prawns or a bunch of bananas don't last very long, they do not hold their value, so that's why they are not considered money, silver and gold is money, if you have money then you will be able to purchase food. In a few years time when farms are very cheap and PM's are very expensive it may be a good idea to exchange a handful of ounces for some prime agricultural land, and then lease it to the hungry serfs to farm it for you.
A bucket of prawns wouldn't last a day in our house.

I agree with JesterJay, Silver in the long run...

DEAD
23rd November 2009, 01:55
Metal is non renewable. Right? Right. As HUMAN BEINGS we focus on what may be a good investment...Silver---NATURALLY. I believe that humans (just like us) should invest in non renewable resources for one reason only. That reason is to save planet Earth. No Dude, I'm not the hippie that just rolled off of the surf with a number in my hand either. I adore any piece of silver... an ounce, a kilo, a spoon, a bar, a kablinka-whatever-tanklititi or any other oddball stinking wet ugly ton of silver just as much as the next human.

Bulldung Beardung....It's all dung. If all AG investors could allocate the value of 1 OZ towards OH , let's say water or forest health for instance, we may be able to move forward as a species and not so much students of Carl Marx for Kermit Frog's sake. Of course base metals, alternative energy and especially agriculture are going to outperform silver...just not in the FRN calculations that so many investors here so clumbSILLY seek. That reminds me........I shall now be open to y'alls harsh criticism since I'm the newbie. Holy heck patina. I'm DEAD already people.

Argyria
23rd November 2009, 01:59
Metal is non renewable. Right? Right. As HUMAN BEINGS we focus on what may be a good investment...Silver---NATURALLY. I believe that humans (just like us) should invest in non renewable resources for one reason only. That reason is to save planet Earth. No Dude, I'm not the hippie that just rolled off of the surf with a number in my hand either. I adore any piece of silver... an ounce, a kilo, a spoon, a bar, a kablinka-whatever-tanklititi or any other oddball stinking wet ugly ton of silver just as much as the next human.

Bulldung Beardung....It's all dung. If all AG investors could allocate the value of 1 OZ towards OH , let's say water or forest health for instance, we may be able to move forward as a species and not so much students of Carl Marx for Kermit Frog's sake. Of course base metals, alternative energy and especially agriculture are going to outperform silver...just not in the FRN calculations that so many investors here so clumbSILLY seek. That reminds me........I shall now be open to y'alls harsh criticism since I'm the newbie. Holy heck patina. I'm DEAD already people.

Oh boy. Now you done pissed off ccjoe.

chroNick
23rd November 2009, 10:14
No,
Silver wins over the next 10 years.
JesterJay

What's your reasoning?

chroNick
23rd November 2009, 10:16
Agriculture will beat all--but you can't stack pork bellies.

You gotta stack PMs.

Jim Rogers has a new commodities fund, if you are inclined to play the paper game.

but in this environment, I'd work on your stack first.

Yea I'm aware of the Jim Rogers RJA stock symbol.. I'm considering buying it.. What's your take on playing the paper? I can see the problems playing the silver paper game, but what about agriculture.

chroNick
23rd November 2009, 10:19
A bucket of prawns or a bunch of bananas don't last very long, they do not hold their value, so that's why they are not considered money, silver and gold is money, if you have money then you will be able to purchase food. In a few years time when farms are very cheap and PM's are very expensive it may be a good idea to exchange a handful of ounces for some prime agricultural land, and then lease it to the hungry serfs to farm it for you.

What makes you say that agricultural land will be cheap? If agriculture goes through the roof, I can't see why the land wouldn't either. Everyone would be bidding to go into the farming business if a little bit of land can yield huge profits, thus the land price is a function of agriculture price.

Also, if food goes up more, then you're actually losing money if you change your silver to agriculture. If **** really hits the fan, I can't see why the hedgefunds and whatnot bidding up agriculture more than silver.

chroNick
23rd November 2009, 10:20
A bucket of prawns wouldn't last a day in our house.

I agree with JesterJay, Silver in the long run...

Yeah, I'm aware of that, but he also mentioned Jim Roger's ag fund. What are your views on that?

chroNick
23rd November 2009, 10:23
Metal is non renewable. Right? Right. As HUMAN BEINGS we focus on what may be a good investment...Silver---NATURALLY. I believe that humans (just like us) should invest in non renewable resources for one reason only. That reason is to save planet Earth.


Shouldn't we be investing in RENEWABLE forms if we want to save the earth? lol.

TheLoneRanger
23rd November 2009, 10:35
Hey I stack sliver gold brass lead copper wheat oat rice and various beans.. I'm about 50/50 weight wise... with about a ton of metal and a ton of grain and legumes.. just in case you know got to be diverisfied just in case.. I always hold physical though.. always physical.

jeff gandhi
23rd November 2009, 10:37
dont know which will outpreform. but his year i bought a pressure canner and a dehydrator. its fun and saves you some money and some harvest

StackAgainstTheMachine
23rd November 2009, 16:15
I am gambling with paper agric through the Jim Roger's ETNs.

It feels a little early. But as Jim stated many times himself, "Agric.. is 70% below its all time high. I like to buy something when it's 70% below it's all time high, and when the fundamentals suggest a shortage soon".

We've all heard him say this before. However, I do not see a launch to the moon this year. Though soybeans are rocketing up since last week.

Cup-of-Ruin
23rd November 2009, 18:00
[QUOTE=chroNick;79855]What makes you say that agricultural land will be cheap?

Because farming land is getting cheaper compared to PM's and will continue to do so for the next few years.



If agriculture goes through the roof, I can't see why the land wouldn't either.

It's not that food is going to become more disirable all of a sudden, itis that we have more printed currencies all over the world chasing fewer goods like food! Why is there less food? We know why there is more money, but why less food? Because public bureaucratic moronic parasites do not make good farmers, and large numbers of real farmers can no longer farm, because of those same bureaucrats and their insane schemes and taxs and regulations, now that does not make farming land more expensive, it makes it cheaper, at the moment most farmers are going backwards and are desperate to sell and it will get worse. Prices are higher for food and will go higher, but does that make a farm a viable business? Not at the moment and not in the near future, food prices have been raising for decades in fiat money and farmers have become poorer over the same time. I don't think your seeing the whole picture.



Everyone would be bidding to go into the farming business if a little bit of land can yield huge profits, thus the land price is a function of agriculture price.

No food prices have been going up for decades and farms over the same period have become less profitable due to government intervention and by all measures this will get much worse before it gets better, farms are not a good business at the moment.


Also, if food goes up more, then you're actually losing money if you change your silver to agriculture.

No, because we will get to a stage where food prices are very high, but agricultural land will be just sitting round doing nothing with no one to farm it, Governments are traditionally woefully inefficient food producers and they know it, I have seen just recently thousands of good farms destroyed by government bureaucracy and its getting worse, some farms have their harvest left to rot on the ground, others the owners have just stopped down tools and walked out, they cannot sell it because it costs you more money to run it than you get back, no one wants to do it! But, But this is good for the land itself, you leave good farmland alone for a few years, preferably 6-7 years, just let it sit, fallow, I mean the land is overworked at the moment, it needs a rest anyway.



If **** really hits the fan, I can't see why the hedgefunds and whatnot bidding up agriculture more than silver.

Hedgefunds? Not good farmers, I hope they do buy, they will make a even bigger disaster and create even more idle farm land and farm land will become even cheaper as silver and gold prices continue to soar.

chroNick
24th November 2009, 01:52
[QUOTE]

Because farming land is getting cheaper compared to PM's and will continue to do so for the next few years.

I see this trend changing. There will be more investments towards this area globally. If the price of agriculture rises, (whether the US government takes over agriculture or not) on a global scale, I wouldn't discout the possibility that agriculture surpasses silver prices in terms of percentage increase.




We know why there is more money, but why less food? Because public bureaucratic moronic parasites do not make good farmers, and large numbers of real farmers can no longer farm, because of those same bureaucrats and their insane schemes and taxs and regulations, now that does not make farming land more expensive, it makes it cheaper, at the moment most farmers are going backwards and are desperate to sell and it will get worse. Prices are higher for food and will go higher, but does that make a farm a viable business? Not at the moment and not in the near future, food prices have been raising for decades in fiat money and farmers have become poorer over the same time. I don't think your seeing the whole picture.

No, I think I am seeing the whole picture. You seem like you're just talking about the US.



No food prices have been going up for decades and farms over the same period have become less profitable due to government intervention and by all measures this will get much worse before it gets better, farms are not a good business at the moment.

Right.. it's not a good business at the moment.. It's dirt cheap. I think we're about to see a reversal in this, and it will start to get better in my opinion, as land is dirt cheap.



No, because we will get to a stage where food prices are very high, but agricultural land will be just sitting round doing nothing with no one to farm it, Governments are traditionally woefully inefficient food producers and they know it, I have seen just recently thousands of good farms destroyed by government bureaucracy and its getting worse, some farms have their harvest left to rot on the ground, others the owners have just stopped down tools and walked out, they cannot sell it because it costs you more money to run it than you get back, no one wants to do it! But, But this is good for the land itself, you leave good farmland alone for a few years, preferably 6-7 years, just let it sit, fallow, I mean the land is overworked at the moment, it needs a rest anyway.

Again, I think you're just referring to the US.





Hedgefunds? Not good farmers, I hope they do buy, they will make a even bigger disaster and create even more idle farm land and farm land will become even cheaper as silver and gold prices continue to soar.

I can see funds and companies moving into agriculture when the **** hits the fan. They can buy the land really cheap, and then hire some farmers, and farm it, and make a killing off the increased food prices. When this demand starts, this will make farm land more expensive.


Like I said, I'm not really sure what's going to happen and I'm not necessarily disagreeing with everything you're saying. I'm just playing a bit of devil's advocate here. I just wouldn't discount the possibility one bit, that agriculture will perform far better than silver.

TheLoneRanger
24th November 2009, 03:09
Before y'all go buy a farm and get rich.. you really need to check a few numbers..

Wheat is at about $6 a bushel... there are 60 pounds of wheat in a bushel.. so Wheat is at 10 cents a pound... there is a pound and a quarter of wheat in a pound and a quarter standard loaf of bread ... so a farmer gets 12.5 cents of what you pay for a loaf of bread.. the processors, bakers, millers, truck drivers, grocery store, grain elevators, ect get the rest...

What a Farmer gets for growing the food is a very small fraction of what you pay for the food.

Oh and if you think you can make a buck with animals instead of crops, keep in mind that ranchers feel lucky geting about $1.50 a pound for beef gross after slaughter and dressing out the carcass... thats gross.. then you subtarct the original cost of the calf or the vet for calving vet for medicines and check ups feed the land the whole kit and caboodle..

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sis12389

Any of you guys ever do a garden? ever come out much ahead on the cost of gardening your food over the grocery store?.. and thats not counting your time...

For a macro view Agriculture all up for everything inculding exports is a whopping 1.2% of GDP.. take away exports and the farmer gets about 1% of your income for each person he feeds.. so how much of your income do you spend on food? Fortunately a single farmer or farm hand can feed about 100 folks.. and out of that all they got to do is buy the land the seed the machinery all the other little odds and ends and put in the time to plant, tend, hatvest, and deliver the crop to market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_the_United_States

http://www.economywatch.com/gdp/world-gdp/usa.html

You probably want to know how a farmer can do it.. easy, long hours and he puts his wife and kids in the fields to help out.

there is an hour long TV show on here at 5:00AM Saturday mornings call Farm Report... were I you.. and I was thinking about getting a farm and getting rich.. I watch a couple episodes and get at least bachelors degrees in Agricluture and Marketing and maybe some experience as a trader in commodities before I bought the land.

Oh, and I need to add, for those that are going to buy land and hire farmers... and I presume lease equipment.. you are talking about some serious front end fixed cost inputs with no way to tell if you will even get a crop, and if you get a grop to harvest how much of a crop you will get and what you will get for it when you deliver.... Also "farmers" usually have their own farmer to work.. so they don't come cheap it you can find one at all... you might be thinking Farm hands or maybe pickers.. which do come cheap maybe $8 an hour.. but the cost of employing them is not cheap if you do it legal with taxes and medical care and other bennies.. and you still need a farmer to manage them.. unless you plan on doing all the managing and decsion making yourself.. of course this, like any endevor, fails or succeeds based on the quality and experience of the management.. did you know, for example, for any given region and crop .. you have anywhere from 6 to maybe 12 seed varieties per crop type.. each of which will do somewhat better than the next if you get the exact weather conditions thru the growing season that they have been bred for.. of course if you pick wrong.. each will do a bit worse than the next or even fail...

Not many folks are confident and brave enough to go into a high input low margin investment with no way to predict the returns.. good on you for having the guts to try is all I can say.

beach miner
24th November 2009, 04:20
What about bugs, eatin everything ya got, or a hail storm poundin it down, or a draught burnin it up. Or To Be Out In The Middle Of A Field: Howin Yer Plants, While MAURADERS Are Shootin At You. BUY IN BULK NOW. Store It. And Protect It. It will never be cheaper, or easier to get than Today. Nothin wrong with stackin Food, Fuel, and Ammo. NOW. See Ya At The Top.

DaleFromCalgary
24th November 2009, 11:22
"Everyone would be bidding to go into the farming business if a little bit of land can yield huge profits, thus the land price is a function of agriculture price."

To some extent that is true, but as speculators in farm land quickly find out, it isn't that easy. I grew up on a farm (300 head of Charolais, rangeland only with supplemental hay in winter) and I became a city slicker for good reason. Rangeland cattle are the least intensive form of farming there is, but even so, you are tied down to the land and the chores never end. It's me for the simple life of the big city.

I invest in commodities such as metals and petroleum, but have no agricultural positions. I know from personal experience how volatile agricultural commodities are depending on the weather, bad harvests, and, worse yet, bumper crops (which depress prices below cost of production).