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nuslvrkwen
7th May 2008, 19:22
Of course this is early going. My suspicions the financial markets were NOT disclosing the true amount of funds for capitalization, OR maintaining a secure level of liquidity to run the financial markets is turning out to be true! The markets are more worried about their profit margins because technically they SHOULDN’T be making much profit on the trades they are making! Despite the volume or how much trading is going on!

Disclosure has been something the financial markets have been trying to avoid for as long as I remember! True disclosure would give an investor an advantage in determining whether that financial instrument the firm is selling is really the great investment the firm is SAYING it is. With metal – it’s easy. You buy and hold you KNOW the value of what you have. Long term debt the market carries but is not required to disclose is one of the reasons a securities firm WOULD have a liquidity problem! Like Bear Stearns. One of those long term debts besides leases for offices is the license fees for software merged entities inherit! We all know how things go in mergers. The merged company loses infrastructure by letting people go, and those left behind have no idea how to really run the company or administer to the product via software they’ve inherited! The administrators claim if they disclose everything the investor would choose not to invest with them. In a free marketplace the investor should choose NOT to deal with financial markets that don’t disclose!

All I know is; this sort of requirement and the proposed ‘Memorandum Of Understanding’ between the FED & SEC will MAKE silver move in the way it should! NONE of those firms have capital or liquidity for a full year NOW! They did all the borrowing in January and February. That’s the new requirement! The SEC is supposed to phase in additional disclosure requirements that are related to concentration of exposures in the marketplace. Heck, the financial market administrators don’t know that junk until AFTER the event! In other words after the investment has failed to reach its’ objective. Just think how THAT would have worked if it had been in place when all the banks were loaning money for mortgages and equity loans! Talk about your concentration of exposure!

The SEC has a reputation of being lax when it comes to oversight for the Financial markets anyway! We should send our market manipulation letters to Senators Charles Shumer (NY) & Jack Reed (RI) AND to the SEC's Erik Sirri. This is a disaster waiting to happen, and will benefit all involved really. We in this forum are prepared for this type of turn around. Especially when you add the fact the US used more credit cards to pay for things once the banks lending rules changed. And equity loans were cancelled. I don’t care if it is a technical correction. We really are in a depression. NOT the recession the talking heads are saying is about over. Secret behind the scenes between business borrowing can’t go on forever.

As an investment hedge, the individual has limited choices. Taking possession of PM is going be thought of by the general public as about the best choice very soon! I just received an email about the new $5K per year limit on savings bonds! The first instrument for savings the Bush Administration’s financial wizards decided to do away with. It started in 2001. A massive re-education program regarding the benefits of precious metals investing for someone willing to buy and hold over ETFs and stocks is key here! The public's conciousness about finances and saving will have to change because of all the loan/stock market fall out! Let's help them out!

7nomads
8th May 2008, 08:10
Thanks for the heads up. Looks like the banks can lend to the Fed (give them all their bad debt) with interest to cover operating expenses (they stay in business).

So the Fed may become the borrower of last resort as well as the lender. This can't be good for the Fed or those paper portraits of presidents they pass around (or push off) to us. I figure silver is going to infinity and the dollar to silver's reciprocal.

nuslvrkwen
9th May 2008, 16:55
Thanks for the heads up. Looks like the banks can lend to the Fed (give them all their bad debt) with interest to cover operating expenses (they stay in business).

So the Fed may become the borrower of last resort as well as the lender. This can't be good for the Fed or those paper portraits of presidents they pass around (or push off) to us. I figure silver is going to infinity and the dollar to silver's reciprocal.

It IS 7Nomads! Here's something for thought also!

We have never lived under the threat of a global financial collapse. Financial institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Also all banks are now interrelated. So the financial 'ecology' of banking is swelling into a gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic bank - when one falls, they will all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when the crisis happen, they are more global in scale and hit us all very hard.

-Nassim Nicholas Taleb. "The Black Swan".

The book the Black Swan is about the impact of the highly improbable. It was written by a guy who used to be a trader. I've been really learning alot about what the FED and the Central banks are doing as far as how the money gets printed. And I've learned from Ted Butler that traders put in counter productive spread ratios during trading sessions to keep the price down so the big traders can continue to sell. To keep liquidity happening on Wall Street. You notice how none of this liquidity the financial banks gets brings more services or higher returns to us, the regular investors? It's just to keep the stupid banks running. Now insurance companies are trying to get more capital because they are so concentrated on real estate debt instruments. I bet how they get their capital will be by selling silver more than gold reserves.

Could it be the physical metals market is waiting for silver to return to $15 an ounce before it takes off to the sky?

Richard
9th May 2008, 19:20
Could it be the physical metals market is waiting for silver to return to $15 an ounce before it takes off to the sky?

I can't say for certain , but in order for it to go back to and over 21 more longs in silver ETF have to be shaken off. At least, that's how I understand paper silver to "work".

nuslvrkwen
12th May 2008, 12:25
I can't say for certain , but in order for it to go back to and over 21 more longs in silver ETF have to be shaken off. At least, that's how I understand paper silver to "work".

WOW! Check this out. Reading Ted Butler's articles he's always talking about long and short paper trades. Technically; ETFs mature annually. Because the trades are all electronic - to ME - they are ALL SHORT. Even if they are held for 5 years. It doesn't matter. Bloomberg has started printing a daily grid on ETF history for the past year. ALL ETFs are losing money if purchased in the past year. The high point for them was back in February I think. This will show gains in ETFs are falling! They aren't the great hedge to put extra money in. For longer than 5 years.

What's going on in the US is Wall Street is SELLING metal backed ETFs to get cash to just run its' businesses for the year. Meaning us individual investors know to keep an eye on our personal banks we use to pay our bills. The bank that gets our automatic paycheck deposits. We keep all the extra money we get together for metals investment as cash to buy! So that if there is a slow down at your bank, your cash is free to use without having to physically go to the bank. My personal bank got a big cash infusion in February some $7.7 Billion Dollars. I'm not expecting it to need to sell more shares or more of its' reserves till Christmas this year. By that time the spot price for silver will have gone way beyond $21.

Last Christmas time; Asia's financial markets bought gold and silver reserves. Probably leased them from us, also. And Asia is participating in the current rice shortage/speculation! Clearly; governments aren't looking out for its' people's best interests! Money is so short; governments are just trying to keep its' corporate infrastructure working. Governments will print as much paper as it takes to give the buying public the impression things are OK. It's up to the individual people to take care of themselves!

averagejoe
12th May 2008, 19:15
I'm affraid guy's before this is over we will have food riots right here in our small town streets just like they are having in Egypt and Asia right now. I don't know how much good our silver is going to do us if we can't buy the food anyway. We may want think about stocking up the freezers and food pantries also. It really does look like this could get really ugly before it is over.

Richard
12th May 2008, 21:57
WOW! Check this out. Reading Ted Butler's articles he's always talking about long and short paper trades. Technically; ETFs mature annually. Because the trades are all electronic - to ME - they are ALL SHORT. Even if they are held for 5 years. It doesn't matter. Bloomberg has started printing a daily grid on ETF history for the past year. ALL ETFs are losing money if purchased in the past year. The high point for them was back in February I think. This will show gains in ETFs are falling! They aren't the great hedge to put extra money in. For longer than 5 years.


I hear ya, dude (or dudette as the case may be...)

I don't know much about ETF, but it seems in principle that that's how it would have to work, since they can only lease the same bar so many times any longs with that would have to be shaken off before the chart price can rise. That would acutally give them all the incentive they needed to fix the price, because if they admited they had little or silver... their asses would be in a sling by now lol

But if you ask me they already are in trouble wheather they're investigated or not; in order for them to lie, they sold that silver WAAAAY cheaper than it actually is and are stuck with worthless paper. One has to admire that poetic justice!

Richard
12th May 2008, 22:04
I'm affraid guy's before this is over we will have food riots right here in our small town streets just like they are having in Egypt and Asia right now. I don't know how much good our silver is going to do us if we can't buy the food anyway. We may want think about stocking up the freezers and food pantries also. It really does look like this could get really ugly before it is over.

That's certainly a possibility, but then again it might be just tough. At least initially. And that's when the silver will begin to circulate to do the work of civilized life. Still, I've been storing food. Water too. I can only hope it's enough, given that we've basically been living in a distortion cloud of supply and demand all these decades. Who knows how long it will be before it gets back on the right track?

nuslvrkwen
13th May 2008, 18:54
We have never lived under the threat of a global financial collapse. Financial institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Also all banks are now interrelated. So the financial 'ecology' of banking is swelling into a gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic bank - when one falls, they will all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when the crisis happen, they are more global in scale and hit us all very hard.

-Nassim Nicholas Taleb. "The Black Swan".

I put that quote out again - because I'm learning things every day that are clarifying our current world financial situation. I'd never heard of the Libor Rate until today. That's the London based rate banks charge to loan money between themselves. Now the credit crunch is in full swing; banks all over the world are starting to point fingers as to who is to blame! Looks like the blame is going to come squarely on the shoulders of the United States' Financial Sector. The Libor Rate is how much it costs a bank to borrow money from another bank. Citigroup; Bank Of America, & HSBC are part of the BBA - the British Bankers Association. After April 16th the BBA posted a warning to all member banks. Any banks found misquoting the borrowing rate would be banned from the BBA. All these banks are required to quote to the BBA how much it costs them to borrow money from other banks in 15 time sectors, ranging from a day - to a year's time. Meaning those banks wouldn't be able to get anymore loans at the Libor Rate if they misquoted the rate to the BBA. So the original rate of 2.72% jumped .20 points to 2.91 in 2 days. The largest rate jump reported in 20 years! Supposedly to correct the issue.

Citigroup is now saying the interbank(Or Libor) rate for lending between banks should be at 3.21% !! It doesn't take a math genius to figure out these fools have been lending money between themselves at rates LOWER than they report to investors or account holders... This is all supposed to make them appear STRONGER financially than they really are! (This reminds me of the Bloomberg story of what happened between Morgan Stanley and that guy who got a huge loan to buy Fred Leighton the jewelry store. Morgan Stanley loaned this man $180 million at a lower rate than what it cost THEM to get the funds for the loan - and the guy DEFAULTED on the loan....)

Has anyone been paying attention to the exchange rate of the dollar compared to the Euro? I've checked it out since the beginning of the year. The stupid dollar moves all of maybe a nickle. + OR - And we're ALL supposed to have this feeling of security, no need to invest in PMs as a hedge BECAUSE of it!! Gold has this range of $20 + OR - since its' peak in March. After it settled down in April Silver's been stuck in this .40 cent 'land'... Furthering my belief we do NOT have the cash flow we've been lead to believe the world's businesses and governments are supposed to have. Governments are printing money. Anything to keep cash flowing. And businesses are going to them for funds like Bear Stearns did but there's some serious shortfalls. Like giving the impression the company isn't as financially solvent as it appears to be!

I say, don't waste anymore time trying to figure out if the government no matter who wins this upcoming election is going to be able to do anything about this. The financial market prices for everything - credit, housing, food have all been misrepresented and misquoted. It's worse than what they are saying.

The article I read said the BBA accelerated its' annual review of Libor to assess if there's a fault with how the rate is computed. If it reflects 'difficult markets' or is 'giving the right answer, just one that people don't want to hear.' This annual review showed market volatility, and none of the banks responsible for the volatility could come up with a solution to stop it! This means the banks are too entrenched in doing what they are doing. And if the banks try to keep business as usual they will be running into more trouble just running their businesses as the year rolls on. We will have more bank collapses being bailed out by the FED. (hopefully now all of you reading are laughing about that prospect!)

I was part of the Technology & Operations Division of BOFA when it was bought out by Nations Bank and moved to Charlotte NC. BOFA bankrupt Charlotte within its' first two years being in that city! The Bush Administration's pal's (lobbyists and cronnies) made sure the bank's reputation stayed intact. Despite all the turmoil this supposed 'growth spurt' by the bank caused! I've always believed we don't have the cash flow businesses like banks say we do, because they are always selling! BOFA had stock grants back then. I sold the first week of January 2004, when I was leaving the company. BOFA stock has NEVER been that price again!

This Administration got the public into relying on credit, since 2000. Not paying bills down. Now people have no idea how to save for their futures, or grow true wealth!

Richard
14th May 2008, 12:59
We will have more bank collapses being bailed out by the FED. (hopefully now all of you reading are laughing about that prospect!)

I'm not not laughing but rather smiling with a sense of cold, wicked justice over the many misfortunes I know they have coming; they will bury themselves, at long last, under the moutain of "dead" they have created!


This Administration got the public into relying on credit, since 2000. Not paying bills down. Now people have no idea how to save for their futures, or grow true wealth!

Heck of a thing, isn't it? But I'd say that in 2000 in became more apparent, not began at that time, although I do recall the mid to late 90's being the time in my young life where I saved the most. I should have been buying pm back then, but noooo... I didn't even bother trying to understand how money works! I can kick myself over that, sometimes over that mistake. Oh well... live and learn!

Great post, btw. :)

Drumblebum
14th May 2008, 13:05
No evidence of manipulation in silver futures market: CFTC (http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/8734244.xml?sub=Metals&p=Metals/News&?undefined&undefined)

Richard
14th May 2008, 13:10
No evidence of manipulation in silver futures market: CFTC (http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/8734244.xml?sub=Metals&p=Metals/News&?undefined&undefined)

Well isn't that a surprise...:rolleyes:

One would think they could elaborate a bit more, like why the dollar falling, inflation up (hyper inflation, actually) and silver's just sitting there and making no serious moves up. But instead, he just throws up a defense of the party they're supposed to be investigating.

Riiiight!!!

nuslvrkwen
14th May 2008, 17:35
Drumblebum read TODAY's article by Jason Hommel - Four Proofs Of Silver Manipulation! I love this Forum! EVERYBODY is really trying to figure out how to get out of being a sheep to our limited economic understanding. Without a doubt EVERY aspect of the marketplace probably HAS been manipulated!

I was suspicious when I saw the CFTC/DMO article first mentioned by 7Nomads. I read that report! Learning that Dr. Gorham - the guy who wrote the 2004 Silver Letter - the report is trying to refute - was the DIRECTOR of CFTC - who resigned three weeks after publishing that letter is TELLING alot!! (Jason Hommel - today) Things were so crappy; Mr. Gorham felt he HAD to say something, then GET OUT!! Does this guy have a website of his own now? The CFTC is trying to refute information that came from within itself!!

I love how Mr. Hommel opened his article with a letter from Dow Jones Newswire ASKING HIM about the report. Mr. Hommel's statement about how hard it was to get silver coins and bullion after the supposed 'peak' in March here in the US; and the waits for delivery (in places like Australia and Germany) - our members to this forum are aware of those wait times for delivery. This is another sign that SOMETHING'S UP.

The Achilles' heel in the financial markets is the 'unspoken understanding' by everybody and every country (except the United States) that silver is used as currency. WE at this forum know that and have seen Wall Street liquidating its' assets (meaning silver reserves and backed securities) since late last year, to get cash. Just to operate. Why else would Wall Street and this Administration push people to save for their retirements via 401Ks holding stocks and bonds? Keeping investing tax free if the investor doesn't take cash payouts till AFTER 70 1/2 years of age? 30 -40 years to FIX the screwups that would take 5 - 7 years to straighten out. LIKE a depression. :lol: That would take about 10 years to work out on its' own!

If you weren't sure you were IN a depression you'd keep doing what you're doing to save for your future, right? You'd keep right on buying stuff, keep yourself at a debt level that was comfortable and everything!! Look at those struggling with housing and credit now. They are suffering in waves or 'shifts' if you will. EVERYONE is NOT in the same boat. But we are all tredding water, waiting for the next bad wave to happen.

It's the NON ESSENTIAL money we are spending on PM right now. So, technically WE are like the investors we hate. That's OK. We ain't suckers, like those who are still trying to figure out if they SHOULD find another investment vehicle to use OTHER than the stock market.

Richard
14th May 2008, 17:58
Mr. Gorham felt he HAD to say something, then GET OUT!! Does this guy have a website of his own now? The CFTC is trying to refute information that came from within itself!!

Hmmm...

What else do you see? Where do you suppose the root of all evil lies, both in the present and past examples?

Robin
14th May 2008, 22:01
But we are all tredding water, waiting for the next bad wave to happen.



The next bad wave is oil going up in the next year or two. At least thats what I heard on the news. They said that it could be up to 200 dollars a barrel.