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ThreeNinesFine
8th October 2009, 13:14
"Well, I've finally got some volume and open interest numbers that are worth the paper their printed on. Volume in gold trading on Tuesday was staggering 233,572 contracts, with open interest rising a stupendous 32,955 contracts to 484,307 in total... probably the biggest one-day jump in gold o.i. in the last ten years! In silver, open interest rose 4,884 contracts on volume of 48,440 contracts, which is a lot. Total o.i. in silver is an extremely large 131,801 contracts! As I said yesterday... Tuesday's big day for both gold and silver did not go unopposed. That has now proven to be the understatement of the year!"


This could get very ugly.

ryshay
8th October 2009, 13:31
What is worse--there is no known limit to the short position the commercials can take, because they use PAPER gold/silver to short.

And, there is no limit to the paper derivatives that can be used to battle rising PM prices.

The only way to fight these guys is to deplete the COMEX and London Exchanges of all bullion.

When COMEX refuses to deliver bullion and will only deliver ETF shares or $FRNs, then the game is over.

But, you can't win the game playing by the commercial's rules.

It is a carnie game. If you prefer a casino analogy, the House always wins.

Step right up! Today is your lucky day! Try to take long positions against an unlimited supply of short positions! Awww....too bad. Another try?...

akak
8th October 2009, 14:12
What is worse--there is no known limit to the short position the commercials can take, because they use PAPER gold/silver to short.

And, there is no limit to the paper derivatives that can be used to battle rising PM prices.

The only way to fight these guys is to deplete the COMEX and London Exchanges of all bullion.

When COMEX refuses to deliver bullion and will only deliver ETF shares or $FRNs, then the game is over.

But, you can't win the game playing by the commercial's rules.

It is a carnie game. If you prefer a casino analogy, the House always wins.

Step right up! Today is your lucky day! Try to take long positions against an unlimited supply of short positions! Awww....too bad. Another try?...



Yes, but such games can only be played for so long.

In the end, reality and the market ALWAYS win, always, even against the house.

ccjoe
8th October 2009, 14:50
Yes, but such games can only be played for so long.

In the end, reality and the market ALWAYS win, always, even against the house.

Supply and Demand and 3 billion Asians added to the marketplace.
That's the reality in my simplistic mind.
Luckily I can do NOTHING for longer than the shorts can manipulate:)

valerb
8th October 2009, 15:00
Yes, but such games can only be played for so long.

In the end, reality and the market ALWAYS win, always, even against the house.

I want you to be right so bad, but since the commercial players know everything that is going on "inside" and we don't. They will keep playing the same game until they run out of cards to play with and they "will" have an exit strategy. It's their game and the government backs them. We holders of physical Silver will ultimately win, but it could be next year of next decade. Everything on our part is pure speculation.

During the last Silver confiscation, they didn't go after the little guy, they confiscated all of the Silver contracts. How that played out, I don't know. One can only assume they simply gave everyone their margins back or paid them off at the going Silver price if they actually were holding Silver in the market. Whatever they did, you know it was rigged for the insiders and I would expect nothing less in today's market. COMEX is a very dangerous play ground, along with pool accounts. Since the ETF's are outside of the COMEX control, I would "hope" that the worst outcome would be to force them to sell at the current price if the government were to confiscate their Silver. There are so many potential directions things can go in other than up or down and government intervention is the unknown factor. Look what they've done for the financial institutions, does anyone think the commercial PM investors will get any less favorable treatment?

main1event
8th October 2009, 15:30
This whole commercial business is a bunch of BS. I've been listening to it for 2 months now. Who was it Doug Gnazzo that said open interest was at an all time high back in August and prices would probably go down. Yet here is gold hitting all time highs.

Gold and Silver have been manipulated for far too long. Manipulating anything for too long creates an imbalance, pressure builds until one day the seams burst and you have yourself an explosion. This manipulation has been going on for 30 years but now the Chinese are buying, the Indians are buying, people in the middle east. Now Americans are starting to wake up.

This is going to be the best 3 to 6 months you have ever seen in gold and silver.

valerb
8th October 2009, 15:59
This whole commercial business is a bunch of BS. I've been listening to it for 2 months now. Who was it Doug Gnazzo that said open interest was at an all time high back in August and prices would probably go down. Yet here is gold hitting all time highs.

Gold and Silver have been manipulated for far too long. Manipulating anything for too long creates an imbalance, pressure builds until one day the seams burst and you have yourself an explosion. This manipulation has been going on for 30 years but now the Chinese are buying, the Indians are buying, people in the middle east. Now Americans are starting to wake up.

This is going to be the best 3 to 6 months you have ever seen in gold and silver.

Come on Main, you have been watching this commercial crap for ever. I agree with the amount of open interest not really dictating what is about to happen in the market. It's those damn institutional investors and margin players who drive the market up and down. I'm still waiting for the Silver shortage to take place in the market and so far it hasn't appeared. Not that it won't in the next month or so, but until it does, the commercials will keep raping the industrial users at every opportunity. Look for signs of 1,000 ounce bars no longer being available at the dealers. I think that will be our first clue of a true shortage. A retail shortage of the small stuff doesn't really mean much, since there is so little of it to go around. It's a shortage of those mother bars that will light the fuse.

Burticus
8th October 2009, 16:03
Don't forget the "Beijing Put." The Chinese also have almost unlimited FRNs that they wanna dump, badly, for real stuff. The Ruskies are also methodically stacking gold. If agents of the Chinese are making the bids and demand physical delivery, as predicted by Jim Willie's May "Hit Men Hired to Bust CRIMEX" article, we have commercial signal failure.

Meanwhile, zero FedGuv interest rate has started a new carry trade, borrowing FRNs, investing in higher-yielding foreign debt, and hedging by shorting the FRN. This will serve as a bayonet in the back of gold & silver's enemy, the paper/electron dollar, hastening its death march to the fiat graveyard, then fiat Hell.

The music is slowing in the game of financial musical chairs and the foreign creditors are cautiously eying the silver and gold chairs and each other. When the music stops, there will be a mad dash for the gold and silver chairs, and there ain't nearly enough for everyone.

We have witlessed the liftoff in gold & silver prices. Next, orbit at 30-50 FRNs, then the moon. If Prof. Fekete is right, then gold and silver will go into hiding, with nobody stupid enough to swap 'em for paper with lots of printed zeros, and SHTF.

"All in" silver/gold, steel/lead & food and patiently twiddling, with popcorn ready for watching the show.

ThreeNinesFine
8th October 2009, 16:20
My question is: Where is the CFTC?!?!?!

main1event
8th October 2009, 17:09
Valerb come on now. The mint just suspended proof eagles indefinitely now, when they said they'd be resuming this year. There is a shortage developing, whether its an actual shortage or a bottleneck in manufacturing. Premiums on eagles have started to go up again on Ebay. Some dealers have run out of eagles altogether.

Volume precedes price and open interest is dictating the volume. This time because of gold we are going to narrow that gold/silver ratio a bit. Gold always moves first so perhaps Gold might outperform Silver.

A funny thing happens when assets start hitting new highs, people start herding into them trying to make a fast buck. We'll have that shortage soon enough but by then it will be too late.

This is not the end to this story, even when we see silver go to $50.00 it might take another 3 or 4 years to see 100 and perhaps after that $300.00 or a currency crisis. IDK, but I do know we have another 5 to 10 years in this bull market.

ccjoe
8th October 2009, 19:11
Don't forget the "Beijing Put." The Chinese also have almost unlimited FRNs that they wanna dump, badly, for real stuff. The Ruskies are also methodically stacking gold. If agents of the Chinese are making the bids and demand physical delivery, as predicted by Jim Willie's May "Hit Men Hired to Bust CRIMEX" article, we have commercial signal failure.

Meanwhile, zero FedGuv interest rate has started a new carry trade, borrowing FRNs, investing in higher-yielding foreign debt, and hedging by shorting the FRN. This will serve as a bayonet in the back of gold & silver's enemy, the paper/electron dollar, hastening its death march to the fiat graveyard, then fiat Hell.

The music is slowing in the game of financial musical chairs and the foreign creditors are cautiously eying the silver and gold chairs and each other. When the music stops, there will be a mad dash for the gold and silver chairs, and there ain't nearly enough for everyone.

We have witlessed the liftoff in gold & silver prices. Next, orbit at 30-50 FRNs, then the moon. If Prof. Fekete is right, then gold and silver will go into hiding, with nobody stupid enough to swap 'em for paper with lots of printed zeros, and SHTF.

"All in" silver/gold, steel/lead & food and patiently twiddling, with popcorn ready for watching the show.

Thanks Main and my Fla friend Burt!!!!
Val is on our side, for sure, but we just have to keep on shoving prima facie evidence at him, which we've done")

maplesilverbug
8th October 2009, 20:04
We have witlessed the liftoff...

Burticus...you are now on my T-shirt payroll.
Cheque is in the mail.

MasterQ
8th October 2009, 22:00
Maple!

I nearly spit out my wine...now stop it!

:p

For those believers in reality and not fantasy let me pass along a little blurb from Ira Epstein's gold report this week.


I realize that a buying frenzy has taken place in the last 5-days.
On October 2nd prices hit a low of $987 an ounce. Today prices hit $1062.70. The
temptation is to jump in, thinking you “missed the boat”. My belief is that you
haven’t.
Whether you end up buying higher or lower, the chart picture should be taken into
account. Right now Stochastics are overbought and the Dollar risk back to the
current break low very large.
Seasonal Studies still point to October having either a price or momentum break by
month’s end. If that occurs, I intend on using it to buy into.

Again, and I cannot agree more, I am NOT bearish but we need to see at least one last (or at big risk) correction before we are up up and away.

It is kinda like the movie theater or concert.....entertainment event syndrom. You are in a big line and then suddenly an easier opening presents itself and everyone rushes in.

That is the market right now.

Just like Ira says, so much emotion got wound up and people just bet the heck out of this regardless of season and TA.

Hell supply/demand, the foundation for price movement, dictated a WOAH BOY to the market but the idiots who felt they were missing the boat and listened to dumbass Fisk bought the **** out of this.

Fine..make me some money...but I'll get my chance to get in and then let you push the price up into oblivion.

The wierd crux in all this is it is quite powerful to be a moron. The price can be pushed up so far that when I get my correction/seasonal dip it is going to be expensive.

What can I say about that?

Can't fight them I'm afraid....oh well...

Heard of cattle do the same thing and yet I can't fault them for following the herd.

-Q

Relayer
8th October 2009, 22:25
Last sentence......

IF that occurs, I intend on using it to buy into.

Epstein may be wrong, but he may be holding plenty of physical and it will just be a missed trade.

And if you are wrong, what about you? Got physical? Or will you just continue to chase your rainbow correction?

valerb
9th October 2009, 00:00
"All in" silver/gold, steel/lead & food and patiently twiddling, with popcorn ready for watching the show.

Thank you, I have all this crap to eat and I never thought about a bucket of popcorn and I eat it all the time. Dirt cheap and it stores forever.

Thanks for the wake-up call, I'd be really pissed without my popcorn.

valerb
9th October 2009, 01:23
Valerb come on now. The mint just suspended proof eagles indefinitely now, when they said they'd be resuming this year. There is a shortage developing, whether its an actual shortage or a bottleneck in manufacturing. Premiums on eagles have started to go up again on Ebay. Some dealers have run out of eagles altogether.

Volume precedes price and open interest is dictating the volume. This time because of gold we are going to narrow that gold/silver ratio a bit. Gold always moves first so perhaps Gold might outperform Silver.

A funny thing happens when assets start hitting new highs, people start herding into them trying to make a fast buck. We'll have that shortage soon enough but by then it will be too late.

This is not the end to this story, even when we see silver go to $50.00 it might take another 3 or 4 years to see 100 and perhaps after that $300.00 or a currency crisis. IDK, but I do know we have another 5 to 10 years in this bull market.

You have miss my point. Retail shortages didn't mean a thing last year and they won't this year either unless they are not able to purchase 1,000 ounce bars. That's where all the Silver is at, that determines a true shortage. When Tulving and the rest of the gang can no longer purchase 1,000 ounce bars, there will be nothing to buy from anyone, except maybe NWTM, Sunshine and a few other small mints. But whatever they are able to produce will come from the ground and not from melting down 1,000 ounce bars from the wholesalers.

Of course we have this very large pool of Silver setting in the ETF's and the dealers can pool their money and buy a 500 1,000 ounce bar lot and take delivery. As well as the commercial shorts or anyone else with more money than most of us. So the flow can continue for some time to come, but with the daily reporting of these ETF numbers, the entire world will be able to see the supply diminishing. When the time comes and the ETF's are being depleted, I'm hoping there will be a separation from the COMEX spot price and the ETF price becoming the accepted spot price for everyone.

So for tell tale signs of a shortage, keep an eye on the available 1,000 ounce bars at Tulving, APMEX and the others. You won't have to follow the ETF inventory levels. When they start to shrink, everyone will be reporting about it.


In reality we have three areas to watch.

1. The lack of available 1,000 ounce bars at "our" dealers.

2. The depletion of COMEX Registered inventory levels.

3. The depletion of ETF inventories.

My beliefs are that the ETF's will be reduced before the COMEX Registered inventory is ever allowed to run dry. That is, buying Silver from SLV to fill orders that can not be met from the wholesalers. COMEX will do any and everything possible to keep in control of the market as long as possible.

As far as the Asians buying up all of the Silver, unless they are taking possession of 1,000 ounce bars, I'm guessing it is going to take some time before they can produce enough silver in small quantities to make a difference. Ramping up a full blown mint is not an over night operation and it is not cheap. These people are not stupid, they will not just spend billions of dollars on equipment so they can manufacture several hundred million ounces of silver in a hurry to sell and then be stuck with all of this equipment and no silver to process through them any longer. That's probably a main reason the Chinese are only offering half kilo bars as their smallest purchase. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they are all poured bars as well, to keep the cost down. When you get into extruding Silver bars, and expensive dies for stamping coins, you are talking about some serious investment expenses. Think about this, NWTM probably manufactures more generic silver than any other US mint, with the exception of JM, because they are only producing 100 ounce bars for the public. NWTM, at it's height last year was producing the equivalent of only 10.4 million ounces a year and that was a 400 percent increase in capacity. So imagine what it will take for the Asians to produce and sell a couple hundred million ounces.

Like everyone one else, I'd like to see it done yesterday, but it really isn't feasible to be done in hurry, even if they have the small investors lined up to buy.

Burticus
9th October 2009, 01:47
Burticus...you are now on my T-shirt payroll.
Cheque is in the mail.

Can't you read the sign, Mac: "Paper and Plastic Not Accepted Here."

Of course, I suppose that now that you owe me, all of a sudden you have mysteriously forgotten where you stashed all that silver. Yes, you will stand there lying, patting your pockets, saying, "Silver, what silver?!" when we can clearly see the round outline worn and faded into your jean pockets (like a tin of dip but smaller).

You've got to run to keep from hiding, and your bound to keep on ridin', singing, "...and I got one more silver dollar. But I'm not gonna let 'em catch me, no, not gonna let 'em catch the midnight rider!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8uH8hMv_is