PDA

View Full Version : Buy, Buy, Buy



vipsurfer
9th September 2009, 18:09
I am in total agreement with the trend we are seeing in the Global Metal Market. One word or say "China". So theres like over 1 billion chinese right???? And they can also now buy silver and gold for investment purposes right? The government is actually releasing commericials on this subject. Silver IS going up and will fall less and less while growing stronger every time. But as this is to open a thread, So here is the homework; post a reason you agree, factual , real , 100%. Then post a reason you think it would tank, I'm super interested in the results of this queary. Thanks guys and gals.~vipsurfer

SeekrBrnEvryMin
9th September 2009, 21:26
Markets are rarely in equilibrium. Something is over-valued or undervalued.

To list reasons why silver is undervalued and will rise in price, or, conversely, why silver is appropriately priced at the present and should be avoided, well, there's two term papers from Hell.

Historically, from ancient times, silver is now tremendously undervalued.

Looking back 125 years or so, modern times, silver has had a rather checkered past as money.

Ted Butler has probably covered it all, so no need to rehash.

Now, here's the way I look at it.

I believe that the world economies are going to remain separate; nations are going to continue to work in their own best interests and look for advantages.

So long as they do, historical money, from the beginning of civilization, will always be running a strong undercurrent.

Current fiat currencies will fail, as they always have. Check the value of our own dollar, and check it's historical value to gold, both from an ancient perspective, and from more modern times.

Modern valuations of gold are logically skewed low.

Silver valuations are much worse.

Because, in the final analysis, until a one-world government removes nations' self-interests, human nature will always reign.

Modern paper models, and they're not old at all, are turning to the pulp they're made of.

You could say that the world powers could devise a fiat treaty to equalize money around the globe. The World would need to be subject to absolute uniform judicial enforcement to make it so, and you're back at the one-world government prospect. And in that case, all bets are off. It's a mandated society and there's no need to worry about precious metals at all.

So you're back to history and human nature's intrinsic valuation of gold and silver. And silver's growing industrial applications and squirmy availability.

So, some form of world specie out there is undervalued.

It isn't paper.

Gen Ripper
9th September 2009, 21:42
I am not sure the Chinese people are buying, but lets say they are. What percentage of Americans, or Canadians, own silver bullion as an investment? I have heard the number that about 5% own gold. Apply that to a 1.3billion Chinese people and you get 65million people. The average income of a Chinese person is debatable but lets say it is a 1/10 that of some one in the USA. Very simplistically it would take 10 Chinese incomes to match the buying power of 1 American. I may be being generous here. Anyhow, 65/10=6.5million. This assumes that the average Chinese bullion investor will spend the equivalent percentage of his yearly salary on bullion as an American bullion investor would.

330mil Americans *5% = 16.5million US bullion owners
1300mil Chinese *5%/10 = Effectively 6.5million US bullion owners

Yeah adds 40%! But I imagine it is a drop in the bucket when you factor in the rest of the world.

Just my cocktail napkin analysis. (seriously) I think silver is upward bound, but I dont think the Chinese people are the panacea that we think they are. We want the Chinese GOVT to buy silver, I dont think it will matter much if the people do. Hey every bit helps.

Argyria
9th September 2009, 22:00
I am not sure the Chinese people are buying, but lets say they are. What percentage of Americans, or Canadians, own silver bullion as an investment? I have heard the number that about 5% own gold. Apply that to a 1.3billion Chinese people and you get 65million people. The average income of a Chinese person is debatable but lets say it is a 1/10 that of some one in the USA. Very simplistically it would take 10 Chinese incomes to match the buying power of 1 American. I may be being generous here. Anyhow, 65/10=6.5million. This assumes that the average Chinese bullion investor will spend the equivalent percentage of his yearly salary on bullion as an American bullion investor would.

330mil Americans *5% = 16.5million US bullion owners
1300mil Chinese *5%/10 = Effectively 6.5million US bullion owners

Yeah adds 40%! But I imagine it is a drop in the bucket when you factor in the rest of the world.

Just my cocktail napkin analysis. (seriously) I think silver is upward bound, but I dont think the Chinese people are the panacea that we think they are. We want the Chinese GOVT to buy silver, I dont think it will matter much if the people do. Hey every bit helps.

I think I agree with you. The Indians have traditionally invested in gold and silver, there are about 1 billion of them, and I think they drown out the Chinese on this one.



As for silver being undervalued, I'm not so sure. Traditionally, an ounce of silver has been about enough to feed a family of 4-5 for a day. And that seems to still be true. In the 60's, gasoline was about $0.25 a gallon. That same amount of silver is now worth about $2.75, which is about what the price of gas is today.

SeekrBrnEvryMin
9th September 2009, 22:35
This is the modern model.

In modern times, the Western governments have had their way in PM prices and virtually every money instrument and derivative thereof.

Monetary focus is now shifting to the Near East, Far East, and all points Asia. The historical model.

maplesilverbug
9th September 2009, 22:43
One word or say "China". ...here is the homework; post a reason you agree, factual , real , 100%. Then post a reason you think it would tank, I'm super interested in the results of this queary. Thanks guys and gals.~vipsurfer

"Tank" as in...plummet to $3/oz? Or "tank" as in down to $11?

I have no real idea where the silver 'spot' will end up -- or when.

Here's my factual* take on the Chinese situation everyone is so ramped up about:
(Feel free to check my math!!!)

1.3 billion Chinese
43% urban = 560 000 000 "city folk" (the ones with money)
8% poverty = 515 000 000
4% unemployed = 495 000 000
Of those, roughly 75% would have the means to purchase PMs (ie. older than 15 years old!), which now takes us down to 28.5% of pop, ergo,
371 000 000 potential Chinese silver seekers.

GDP/capita = $6000

Lowest 10% = 2.4% income

Highest 10% = 31.4% income:
37 100 000 earning $2.5 trillion
$67 708 per capita average
(10% assests into silver = $251 billion)

The Rest = 66.2% income:
334 000 000 earning $5.3 trillion
$15 856 per capita average
(10% assets into silver = $530 billion)

Lets say 10% of all mid and top earners put 10% assets into silver
= $780 billion x 10% = $78 billion


World Silver Supply = 1 billion ounces (as per Butler '09)
x $16/oz = $16 billion


The Chinese Enigma:

$78 billion chasing $16 billion in silver.


Of course on a pure 'supply and demand' theory this would drive the price up. The Chinese NOT buying silver would probably not cause the price to "tank".

I don't know...I guess if they ALL bought an ounce...all on the same day...???


*(all data supplied by the CIA...because who knows the Chinese better than the good ol' CIA!)

SeekrBrnEvryMin
9th September 2009, 22:52
Maple, I know you're looking for facts.

Here's one: Show a lady an ounce of gold. Watch her eyes widen and her hand immediately rise to it. And she'll have questions about where you got it, how much you paid for it, and how much more you have and how much you want to get in the near future and you basically have the World's emotional appeal for PMs nailed.

No matter how many facts you want, the emotional appeal for PMs in humans throughout history is going to make a lot of PM investors very, very comfortable.

It's the wild card in analyses that'll getcha. And this one is looking right at you.

maplesilverbug
9th September 2009, 23:08
Maple, I know you're looking for facts.

I was asked to post facts.



No matter how many facts you want, the emotional appeal for PMs in humans throughout history is going to make a lot of PM investors very, very comfortable. It's the wild card in analyses that'll getcha. And this one is looking right at you.

What else is looking at the some countries (USA/"The West") right in the face is that their citizens (ie. investors) have NO liquid means by which to buy PMs! They are so far in debt that all their cash goes to service said debts. Doesn't matter how bad you want something (ie. emotion), if you don't have the means and ways...

The Chinese DO have the means and the ways...supposedly. Time will tell if they effect the market as strongly as reports are...reporting.

Just glad I have mine. :D

SeekrBrnEvryMin
9th September 2009, 23:23
I was asked to post facts.


I know what the OP asks for.

I was referring to your post in the Other Topics category, "My Crappy Attitude."

It's just for amusement anyway.

maplesilverbug
9th September 2009, 23:34
I know what the OP asks for.

I was referring to your post in the Other Topics category, "My Crappy Attitude."

It's just for amusement anyway.

HEY!
I still have a crappy attitude -- I just smile more now.

And I find the Chinese very amusing. Oh that Jackie Chan!

SeekrBrnEvryMin
9th September 2009, 23:38
What else is looking at the some countries (USA/"The West") right in the face is that their citizens (ie. investors) have NO liquid means by which to buy PMs! They are so far in debt that all their cash goes to service said debts. Doesn't matter how bad you want something (ie. emotion), if you don't have the means and ways...

The Chinese DO have the means and the ways...supposedly. Time will tell if they effect the market as strongly as reports are...reporting.



Don't be absurd. Have you no idea how wealthy Western countries are today? And how poor the average Chinese are? No liquid means to buy PMs? ROFLMFAO

maplesilverbug
9th September 2009, 23:47
Mmmmmm Twilight Zone....sooo entertaining!

Argyria
9th September 2009, 23:50
Don't be absurd. Have you no idea how wealthy Western countries are today? And how poor the average Chinese are? No liquid means to buy PMs? ROFLMFAO

Actually, Maple might have a point. Many people in the US are so under a barrel with credit cards, they can barely get by from week to week. I have a friend like this, she makes $60K+ a year, with no children and no car to spend money on, but spends it all and then some on presents for nieces and nephews, trips, and going out to eat and she is always in debt. I showed her some of my silver, and though she was impressed and seemed interested, she can't afford to buy any herself.

It won't be the 'average' Chinese person who buys PM's, it will be the middle class. They are habitual savers, and so they have cash. In the US, we have a culture of spending everything we have and then some.

Or, as some Chinese official was quoted in another thread,

'Americans spend tomorrow's money today, Chinese spend today's money tomorrow.'

of one mine
10th September 2009, 00:15
HI All Heres some common sense to our puzzle. To begin with most average working families had two solid incomes now most have only one. Only very few owe less than 10,000 of credit on credit cards. All those who walked away from bad mortgages probably paid them off. Even though most banks raised the interest rates they charge for credit you cant help but guess everyone saved at least one card for a rainy day. If we have a very bad last 3 months of the year. Meaning no one spends on holiday extras we will know that money is so tight some stores like mervynns could fail. Many more approx. 500,000 mortgages will fail next year give or take, this is the second double dip of our recession. If it appears as though Im making the case for (Dunney-just kidding)"where would the money come to buy silver". Yes I am Im not sure everyone will be financially the right place at the right time. No need to repeat Chinas situation here either. Going forward<(just fluffy filling) we will need some real time data on savings and jobs to know where the PM markets will be headed the driver is always the consumer and thats how we get a head start on the markets. Not to be negative but if the signs are there silver and gold could take a steep drop in Jan. Watch the stats on consumer spending the last three months of the year. It wont be the only thing affecting the markets but it will show us where its headed. The volitility we have witnessed tells me theres more than meets the eye to this current market. And the manipulators know it as well, and the media parrots sqwak away and do what they are told. I heared a lady on the news one day she was afraid to panic the people listening so she painted a less scary pic for the public which involved the markets at the time.
My 2 ounces
of one mine

Gen Ripper
10th September 2009, 07:29
Maple, I think you are giving the Chinese Govt too much credit. The Chinese are communist at heart, do you really think that they would allow their people to have an actual income? Data is murky out there, but I dont think a lot of that GDP makes it to the actual citizen. Football field sized red flags dont grow on trees you know.:mrgreen:

Anyway if your math is believable, we should be able to apply the same principals to the US. The US has 8 times the GDP of China and .25 population. That means the US has 2x the silver seeking potential as China? I doubt it...

maplesilverbug
10th September 2009, 08:48
Maple, I think you are giving the Chinese Govt too much credit. The Chinese are communist at heart, do you really think that they would allow their people to have an actual income? Data is murky out there, but I dont think a lot of that GDP makes it to the actual citizen. Football field sized red flags dont grow on trees you know.:mrgreen:

Anyway if your math is believable, we should be able to apply the same principals to the US. The US has 8 times the GDP of China and .25 population. That means the US has 2x the silver seeking potential as China? I doubt it...


Aye, but what of the DEBT LOAD of BOTH the US GOVERNMENT AND IT'S CITIZENS!?!
(Or have you been on vacation in the jungle for the last 12-months/10-years?). Here is a pretty picture... (http://market-ticker.org/uploads/KeyCharts/Per-CapitaDebt.serendipityThumb.png)

Which country is in debt to which country?

I am fully aware of the "communist" government in China, and have no idea how their tax system works (as I stated, I took my data from the CIA). And really, is the US data any less murky or manipulated? I say no.

I know people who have travelled to China in the last 1-2 years (and know people who actually live there -- Hong Kong) and they all say the same thing: there is a LOT of money there. Hell, Macao kicks the sh!t out of Vegas ten times over in terms of gambling revenue ever since the Commies started allowing their citizens to place bets.

At the same time, the Chinese very well MAY pump their citizens to buy up silver and PM's -- as long as it doesn't leave their borders.

As a parting thought on my quickie rebuttal, "football field-sized red flags" may not grow on trees, but neither do trillion buck bailouts...and I'll wager (deeply) that all those flags are a bargin in comparison!

Like I said, only time will tell...

DaBrownsRPhat
10th September 2009, 09:54
I had a nice post, but I timed out for some reason (logged me out) and lost it so I may redo it later on. I don't think kicking my computer was the smartest reaction and so it may be delayed further due to needing a new one. :mad:

vipsurfer
10th September 2009, 11:26
I have to admit, I have done well using the x-factor in business. So I do appreciate the "googly-eyed" approach. As for being a fan of Jackie Chan I prefer the Lee fam, but anyways.
Maple Outstanding on your part I so work by the percentages and yours where right on. Of course call me optimistic but I see more plus than minus in the scenarios. Hmmmm Silver I ~was~ thinking silver would see $22 an ounce but ya know $30 I do believe. ~vipsurfer

Gene Daniels
10th September 2009, 12:22
I am not a numbers person, but I do know Asians, being an American living in Asia for the past 12 years. I would guess that most Chinese who can afford it will buy PMs if their government is encouraging them to do it. Chinese are first of all thrifty, second of all smart, and lastly very patriotic. If the government tells them buying silver is a good idea, then they will probably find a way to buy some.

Of course, most can't afford to, but even I have seen that even "poor" Asians often out save most "rich" Americans. They have a more realistic view of the world and don't expect to have a fairytale ending to life - spending themselves into debt hell yet expecting their government to save them.

So, bet on the Chinese buying, but buying smart. Whatever that ends-up meaning.

goldsilber
10th September 2009, 15:07
I am not sure the Chinese people are buying, but lets say they are. What percentage of Americans, or Canadians, own silver bullion as an investment? I have heard the number that about 5% own gold. Apply that to a 1.3billion Chinese people and you get 65million people. The average income of a Chinese person is debatable but lets say it is a 1/10 that of some one in the USA. Very simplistically it would take 10 Chinese incomes to match the buying power of 1 American. I may be being generous here. Anyhow, 65/10=6.5million. This assumes that the average Chinese bullion investor will spend the equivalent percentage of his yearly salary on bullion as an American bullion investor would.

330mil Americans *5% = 16.5million US bullion owners
1300mil Chinese *5%/10 = Effectively 6.5million US bullion owners

Yeah adds 40%! But I imagine it is a drop in the bucket when you factor in the rest of the world.

Just my cocktail napkin analysis.

This is mine.

Let's take Beijin. 15 million people.
Let's say 1 out 100 of them is potentially, that means he/she has enough money to do it, willing to acquire 1 Oz silver pro month.
That make 150.000 Oz per month.
I think it is a realistic scenario.

Now, if we consider the other major (= over 5 Mil. inhabitants) cities, we can get, without exagerate, to 1,5 - 2 Mil. Oz per month.
That make between 18 and 24 Mil. Oz per year.
I think it is a conservative speculation.

(Plus, we should count in institutional investors too. I don't think they wait for the launch of an ETF to acquire physical silver. And maybe, other than private citizens, some of them could have some amount of dollars which they are thinking how they can get rid of.
This double, at least, the features about potential investors.)

The fact that the chinese government is campaigning for silver investment make me think that the transition from potential to actual investors won't need years.

So, according to this analysis of mine, in a year there will be at least 18-24 Mil. Oz. less on the chinese market. (Without considering institutional investment.) The question is, how much silver is actually stored and get yearly mined in China.
(Anyway, I don't think China will become - unlike for gold - a net importer of silver.

maplesilverbug
10th September 2009, 18:24
Chinese are first of all thrifty, second of all smart, and lastly very patriotic.

Good call on that one.
For example, the Chinese "Wonder of the World" -- the Great Wall of China. When it was being constructed (and afterwards as well), almost every Chinese citizen HATED that thing. Until the Euro-trash started coming into China and spending their money just to see the most hated "landmark". Once the Chinese people realized they could make money off the Wall, they all started loving it!



Of course, most can't afford to, but even I have seen that even "poor" Asians often out save most "rich" Americans. They have a more realistic view of the world and don't expect to have a fairytale ending to life - spending themselves into debt hell yet expecting their government to save them.

So, bet on the Chinese buying, but buying smart. Whatever that ends-up meaning.

Very sensible thoughts, Gene. Thanks.

SilverHawk
10th September 2009, 19:15
I am in total agreement with the trend we are seeing in the Global Metal Market. One word or say "China". So theres like over 1 billion chinese right???? And they can also now buy silver and gold for investment purposes right? The government is actually releasing commericials on this subject. Silver IS going up and will fall less and less while growing stronger every time. But as this is to open a thread, So here is the homework; post a reason you agree, factual , real , 100%. Then post a reason you think it would tank, I'm super interested in the results of this queary. Thanks guys and gals.~vipsurfer

A Chinese silver coin buyer is not going to effect the Open Cry spot metal price. A Chinese Silver mine is going to refine and make a coin, send it to a coin shop, and base the price on the New York and London exchange. The silver will not be going through the COMEX, effecting the spot price.

Now if there are Chinese silver suppliers to the COMEX, that cut back on normal delivery, that can effect price.

The people on the floor of metal exchanges effect the spot price. Buying or Selling depends on the demand from industry, speculators and investment houses. A Pie Chart on the percentage of silver coin from an ounce of silver is extremely small. The spot price is directly related to supply and demand, and future and option purchases. If silver miners decide to cut shipment to the COMEX and send more to NWTM and other coin makers, that will push the price up.

This is my understanding of how the game works. I've had to piece it together from the thousand articles I've read over the years. It would have been nice to have seen an article by our so called professional "Silver Investor" experts, that explain in detail how the system works, but I really don't think they know for sure. Otherwise they would have voiced their opinion on the coming "COMEX DEFAULT" that never happened. Or maybe wrote an article about the coming Chinese Silver hoard.

I've learned very little from them, so as to think they're no smarter than you or I.

ccjoe
10th September 2009, 19:22
A Chinese silver coin buyer is not going to effect the Open Cry spot metal price. A Chinese Silver mine is going to refine and make a coin, send it to a coin shop, and base the price on the New York and London exchange. The silver will not be going through the COMEX, effecting the spot price.

Now if there are Chinese silver suppliers to the COMEX, that cut back on normal delivery, that can effect price.

The people on the floor of metal exchanges effect the spot price. Buying or Selling depends on the demand from industry, speculators and investment houses. A Pie Chart on the percentage of silver coin from an ounce of silver is extremely small. The spot price is directly related to supply and demand, and future and option purchases. If silver miners decide to cut shipment to the COMEX and send more to NWTM and other coin makers, that will push the price up.

This is my understanding of how the game works. I've had to piece it together from the thousand articles I've read over the years. It would have been nice to have seen an article by our so called professional "Silver Investor" experts, that explain in detail how the system works, but I really don't think they know for sure. Otherwise they would have voiced their opinion on the coming "COMEX DEFAULT" that never happened. Or maybe wrote an article about the coming Chinese Silver hoard.

I've learned very little from them, so as to think they're no smarter than you or I.

I'm dumb too Hawk but if 1.3 bill Chinese, 1 bill Indians, 1 bill Mayaysians,etc i.e. half the population of the world suddenly are encouraged to buy silver, then you can't tell me we won't have 300 OZ silver within 3 years. I just won't believe the irrational thought process that would come to any other conclusion. Silly graphs don't do it for me. Supply and demand does whether it's drugs, gas, silver, whatever, SUPPLY and DEMAND for this simpleton.

PlataTruth
10th September 2009, 19:40
I'm dumb too Hawk but if 1.3 bill Chinese, 1 bill Indians, 1 bill Mayaysians,etc i.e. half the population of the world suddenly are encouraged to buy silver, then you can't tell me we won't have 300 OZ silver within 3 years. I just won't believe the irrational thought process that would come to any other conclusion. Silly graphs don't do it for me. Supply and demand does whether it's drugs, gas, silver, whatever, SUPPLY and DEMAND for this simpleton.

I am certainly no expert on Asian metal markets but the Chinese will be buying from their own mines or government sources, not the Comex so their hoarding will not affect the spot price, I believe the Indian's buy on the open market so that will help, I have no idea where the Mayansians buy their silver but there sure is alot of them.

SilverHawk
10th September 2009, 19:43
Actually, Maple might have a point. Many people in the US are so under a barrel with credit cards, they can barely get by from week to week. I have a friend like this, she makes $60K+ a year, with no children and no car to spend money on, but spends it all and then some on presents for nieces and nephews, trips, and going out to eat and she is always in debt. I showed her some of my silver, and though she was impressed and seemed interested, she can't afford to buy any herself.

It won't be the 'average' Chinese person who buys PM's, it will be the middle class. They are habitual savers, and so they have cash. In the US, we have a culture of spending everything we have and then some.

Or, as some Chinese official was quoted in another thread,

'Americans spend tomorrow's money today, Chinese spend today's money tomorrow.'

Boy, talk about stupidity. That woman is ignorant, spending like that. Most Americans have not learned to save money. It's a spend spend spend society. It's not taught in schools. And for good reason.

The Chinese bought more cars last year than the US did. I think with just the $2T (let alone the rest of the world) they got from WallMart (USA) type customers, a lot had to trickle down to them. Remember, if a person in China was making $2 a day working in the rice paddies, moves to the city and starts making $4 a day, he's doubled his yearly income. Not many stories like that to be told in the western world, any more. We're working ourselves the other way. Many losing $100,000 jobs and going to work at McDonalds for $18,000.

No, there's going to be a lot of silver bought in China. Statistics soon to follow...

PlataTruth
10th September 2009, 19:55
Supply and demand does whether it's drugs, gas, silver, whatever, SUPPLY and DEMAND.

Joe, there is still amply supply of silver on this little globe of ours. It is projected we will hit peak silver at 2020, with the increase in price and global demand probably sooner. There are still many operational mines that have vast stores of silver and many that are waiting for the price to rise. Undoubtedly there are undiscovered resources in south america. It is first and foremost an industrial metal. The price rise will be steady but probably not dramatic. Buy and hold, buy and hold. Silver is not a get rich quick scheme. We hoarders all hope one day to turn a pretty penny, but many of us have been holding for decades, myself included. The media has been publishing silver shortage stories since the 1960's.

SilverHawk
10th September 2009, 20:06
I'm dumb too Hawk but if 1.3 bill Chinese, 1 bill Indians, 1 bill Mayaysians,etc i.e. half the population of the world suddenly are encouraged to buy silver, then you can't tell me we won't have 300 OZ silver within 3 years. I just won't believe the irrational thought process that would come to any other conclusion. Silly graphs don't do it for me. Supply and demand does whether it's drugs, gas, silver, whatever, SUPPLY and DEMAND for this simpleton.

As I said, if it's not directly effecting the COMEX, the spot is not effected.

Let me explain in simple terms.

A small town has a used car dealer. He relies on the people buying and selling through him. The more he is relied on, and is a monopoly, the more he can set the prices. If a sudden wave of new consumers come along and used the newspaper to buy and sell, it would not effect the dealer one bit. If an increase in buying and selling cars is done through a secondary channel, and the primary channel is uneffected.

maplesilverbug
10th September 2009, 20:06
Silly graphs don't do it for me. Supply and demand does...

There's a graph for that, too. (http://www.trumpuniversity.com/business-briefings/lib/resources/images/graphs/supply_and_demand.gif)



Joe, there is still amply supply of silver on this little globe of ours. /Buy and hold, buy and hold. Silver is not a get rich quick scheme.

Thank-you.

SilverHawk
10th September 2009, 20:09
Joe, there is still amply supply of silver on this little globe of ours. It is projected we will hit peak silver at 2020, with the increase in price and global demand probably sooner. There are still many operational mines that have vast stores of silver and many that are waiting for the price to rise. Undoubtedly there are undiscovered resources in south america. It is first and foremost an industrial metal. The price rise will be steady but probably not dramatic. Buy and hold, buy and hold. Silver is not a get rich quick scheme. We hoarders all hope one day to turn a pretty penny, but many of us have been holding for decades, myself included. The media has been publishing silver shortage stories since the 1960's.

Now this post is total BS. We will run out of above ground silver by then, and the only silver to be gotten will be on the trucks going to the refineries.

maplesilverbug
10th September 2009, 20:19
As I said, if it's not directly effecting the COMEX, the spot is not effected.

Let me explain in simple terms.

A small town has a used car dealer. He relies on the people buying and selling through him. The more he is relied on, and is a monopoly, the more he can set the prices. If a sudden wave of new consumers come along and used the newspaper to buy and sell, it would not effect the dealer one bit. If an increase in buying and selling cars is done through a secondary channel, and the primary channel is uneffected.

That would only work if the dealer's volume remained unchanged (ie. the "sudden wave of new consumers" did not draw upon his customer base). In other words, two independent channels.

But what happens if he (primary) is relied upon less and less by his historical buyers and sellers in favor of the newspaper (secondary)? I would argue he would be checking the newspaper ads and adjusting the prices of his inventory in order to compete with that "secondary channel".

Yes? No?

maplesilverbug
10th September 2009, 20:24
Now if there are Chinese silver suppliers to the COMEX, that cut back on normal delivery, that can effect price. / If silver miners decide to cut shipment to the COMEX and send more to NWTM and other coin makers, that will push the price up.

That's kind of what I am referring to with the whole car thing.



...our so called professional "Silver Investor" experts, that explain in detail how the system works, but I really don't think they know for sure.

Exactly. So...what the hell!?! I'll just buy and hold! Forget the whole "Spot will be $XX on April 15, 2098!!" game.

DaBrownsRPhat
10th September 2009, 20:56
I'll just buy and hold!

Anything else is just wrong. ;)

silverheartbone
11th September 2009, 01:11
As for silver being undervalued, I'm not so sure. Traditionally, an ounce of silver has been about enough to feed a family of 4-5 for a day. And that seems to still be true. In the 60's, gasoline was about $0.25 a gallon. That same amount of silver is now worth about $2.75, which is about what the price of gas is today.

If you are feeding a family of 4.5 for one day on $17 US, in the US, you are dreaming.
Yes, you could feed them pork and beans and oatmeal and grits and sausage and eggs and soup and hot dogs and canned green beans and kool-aid and sardines and crackers and jell-o all bought in bulk.

But not a normal HEALTHY diet.

Argyria
11th September 2009, 01:23
If you are feeding a family of 4.5 for one day on $17 US, in the US, you are dreaming.
Yes, you could feed them pork and beans and oatmeal and grits and sausage and eggs and soup and hot dogs and canned green beans and kool-aid and sardines and crackers and jell-o all bought in bulk.

But not a normal HEALTHY diet.

In the past that diet an ounce of silver would buy would be considerably less varied and probably even less healthy. No, not too many sirloin steaks on that budget, but you could have pasta, hamburgers and eggs no problem. Organic health food? No, but then that stuff didn't even exist in times past.

Relayer
11th September 2009, 01:37
In 1965 my father would give my mother $20 to buy a weeks worth of groceries for 4 people. It now takes $136 to buy the same amount. Silver was about $2.25 in 1965. 7 X $2.25 is $15.75

I would say Argyria is not that far off based on the governments official rate of inflation. But then we also know that real inflation has been alot worse than the official numbers!


http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

PlataTruth
11th September 2009, 01:49
Now this post is total BS. We will run out of above ground silver by then, and the only silver to be gotten will be on the trucks going to the refineries.

If the silver is on the trucks is it not above ground? Will there still be silver below ground? Last I checked it does come from the ground. I plan to still have mine by 2020, as I am sure many others will as well. There are still mines being discovered and promoted, with a 5 year set up and 5 year depletion thats 2020 Hawk.

Argyria
11th September 2009, 02:50
If the silver is on the trucks is it not above ground? Will there still be silver below ground? Last I checked it does come from the ground. I plan to still have mine by 2020, as I am sure many others will as well. There are still mines being discovered and promoted, with a 5 year set up and 5 year depletion thats 2020 Hawk.

I agree more will be discovered and mined. Some that is not profitable to mine now will be if prices rise enough. However, I think industry will gradually consume more over time as well, so that should keep supplies a bit tight for decades to come.

fansubs_ca
11th September 2009, 04:15
Many losing $100,000 jobs and going to work at McDonalds for $18,000.

That's probably over optimistic for McDonalds. The reason being most of the
people working in most McDonalds locations are (sometimes very) part-time.
Typically there are maybe 6 managers, 3 full time overnighters, 3 more or less
full time daysiders, and a whole piss load of people that work 3 to 15 hours
per week. At least this was the case in the late 80s through the late 90s.
I have a suspicion the overnighter jobs have probably been fragmented by
now too and no longer exist, at least not in the same form.

I don't know about other restraunts, some may be better, but 7-11 tends
to give the people they hire more solid hours, same for for DOMO Gas. (A
western Canadian chain of gas stations.) So at some similarly bracketed
companies (by hourly wage range) people may make $18,000 per year
but largely _not_ at McDonalds.

I think this is a major contributer to the company's dumbing down, the smart
people migrate to other jobs and that leaves the dumber people behind. If
you are "lucky" you'll get someone who's just lacking initiative to work more
and subsidized by either their parents or the government but more often
you end up with a lot of people who, well shouldn't really be trusted to
work in a kitchen... -_-

Argyria
11th September 2009, 04:20
At the restaurant I work at, if you can't hack it in the kitchen, you get moved to washing dishes. If you can't hack that, next stop...McDonald's. If you screw that up, its back to Guatemala.

Gen Ripper
11th September 2009, 07:16
Aye, but what of the DEBT LOAD of BOTH the US GOVERNMENT AND IT'S CITIZENS!?!
(Or have you been on vacation in the jungle for the last 12-months/10-years?). Here is a pretty picture... (http://market-ticker.org/uploads/KeyCharts/Per-CapitaDebt.serendipityThumb.png)

Which country is in debt to which country?



I am just saying that the West, despite our high taxes and debt, the PEOPLE are still allowed to keep more of the GDP. The reason that China has the ability to buy so much debt from the US is because they dont let their people have any cash. So you have a chincom govt vacuuming up cash from people already only making an eighth of a US worker. Sure they could make a splash in the PM market, but really how much.

As for HK, that is NOT China. It is China's trophy. It is totally unrepresentative of the rest of the country and govt.

DaBrownsRPhat
11th September 2009, 07:21
That's probably over optimistic for McDonalds. The reason being most of the
people working in most McDonalds locations are (sometimes very) part-time.
Typically there are maybe 6 managers, 3 full time overnighters, 3 more or less
full time daysiders, and a whole piss load of people that work 3 to 15 hours
per week. At least this was the case in the late 80s through the late 90s.
I have a suspicion the overnighter jobs have probably been fragmented by
now too and no longer exist, at least not in the same form.

I don't know about other restraunts, some may be better, but 7-11 tends
to give the people they hire more solid hours, same for for DOMO Gas. (A
western Canadian chain of gas stations.) So at some similarly bracketed
companies (by hourly wage range) people may make $18,000 per year
but largely _not_ at McDonalds.

I think this is a major contributer to the company's dumbing down, the smart
people migrate to other jobs and that leaves the dumber people behind. If
you are "lucky" you'll get someone who's just lacking initiative to work more
and subsidized by either their parents or the government but more often
you end up with a lot of people who, well shouldn't really be trusted to
work in a kitchen... -_-

What is sad is one McD's I ordered chicken nuggets. I got home and they were not cooked in the middle. I went back, the manager broke one open and saw it. They replaced it, I went home. Those were also not cooked all the way through. I called them this time. When I was in there I saw a huge group of kids, and all had nuggets. When I spoke with the manager I told them that I saw that and that they were not allowing time for the oil to heat up again, so the timer was not enough. When you constantly throw frozen nuggets into a fryer, the oil temp will go down. The manager did not understand this concept and told me things were fine because she did her checks in the morning, this was lunch time.

The conversation ended with me yelling, you could be killing those kids, and I never went back to that one. Scary.

Argyria
11th September 2009, 07:27
What is sad is one McD's I ordered chicken nuggets. I got home and they were not cooked in the middle. I went back, the manager broke one open and saw it. They replaced it, I went home. Those were also not cooked all the way through. I called them this time. When I was in there I saw a huge group of kids, and all had nuggets. When I spoke with the manager I told them that I saw that and that they were not allowing time for the oil to heat up again, so the timer was not enough. When you constantly throw frozen nuggets into a fryer, the oil temp will go down. The manager did not understand this concept and told me things were fine because she did her checks in the morning, this was lunch time.

The conversation ended with me yelling, you could be killing those kids, and I never went back to that one. Scary.

Off to Guatemala. If you can't even do McDonald's successfully, its back to the nation you came from. Move along folks, nothing here to see.

ccjoe
11th September 2009, 08:20
Now this post is total BS. We will run out of above ground silver by then, and the only silver to be gotten will be on the trucks going to the refineries.

Thanks Hawk
Let me keep THIS simple.
If you buy grass from your local dealer, and the world wide supply is being depleted because 3 billion Chinese, Indians, and Malaysians were allowed and ENCOURAGED for the FIRST time in 60 years, my local dealer would have to pay a helluva more for the weed, as the supply is FINITE.
Hawk---Some people will NEVER get this simple premise--Supply/Demand-----Finite resourse (sillver)
This is great as a whole bunch of stuff is not on MY thread because the crazy one is on my ignore list.. I wish I knew about it when the other Duney was here:)

Argyria
11th September 2009, 08:25
Thanks Hawk
Let me keep THIS simple.
If you buy grass from your local dealer, and the world wide supply is being depleted because 3 billion Chinese, Indians, and Malaysians were allowed and ENCOURAGED for the FIRST time in 60 years, my local dealer would have to pay a helluva more for the weed, as the supply is FINITE.
Hawk---Some people will NEVER get this simple premise--Supply/Demand-----Finite resourse (sillver)
This is great as a whole bunch of stuff is not on MY thread because the crazy one is on my ignore list.. I wish I knew about it when the other Duney was here:)

Mwahahaha. I am the other Duney.

ccjoe
11th September 2009, 08:27
Mwahahaha. I am the other Duney.

Arg--I'd never put you on my ignore list:)

maplesilverbug
11th September 2009, 09:18
I am just saying that the West, despite our high taxes and debt, the PEOPLE are still allowed to keep more of the GDP.

Yup, we sure are. And there is also no-one holding us back from spending every last cent and then going out and spending even more that we don't have (ie. DEBT -- and lots of it!).



The reason that China has the ability to buy so much debt from the US is because they dont let their people have any cash.

Where is your data on this, please?



So you have a chincom govt vacuuming up cash from people already only making an eighth of a US worker. Sure they could make a splash in the PM market, but really how much.

None of us really knows what the hell is going on in China so nly time will tell on that one. Who's to say their gov't wouldn't do something like sell their citizens silver from Chinese mines (only!) at a massive discount just in order to enable everyone to have some, then they (the Chinese gov't) go out into the real world and start buying up Western silver (COMEX, etc.) in order to raise the price and give their people a huge boost in net worth?

Kind of like a "Cash for Klunkers" thing, except done well and with something of value!



As for HK, that is NOT China. It is China's trophy. It is totally unrepresentative of the rest of the country and govt.

Granted.



p.s. -- we are ALL "The Other Duney"!!!

PlataTruth
11th September 2009, 11:32
Thanks Hawk
Let me keep THIS simple.
If you buy grass from your local dealer, and the world wide supply is being depleted because 3 billion Chinese, Indians, and Malaysians were allowed and ENCOURAGED for the FIRST time in 60 years, my local dealer would have to pay a helluva more for the weed, as the supply is FINITE.
Hawk---Some people will NEVER get this simple premise--Supply/Demand-----Finite resourse (sillver)
This is great as a whole bunch of stuff is not on MY thread because the crazy one is on my ignore list.. I wish I knew about it when the other Duney was here:)

Joe trust me the reason I got into silver almost 30 years ago was because of supply and demand. There are 100's of industrial applications that are only possible because of silver, there is no substitute to our beloved shiny metal. It is your timeline which I have issues with, you seem to NEED silver to go to $300.00 in the next 3 years. Your enthusiasm seems to be the next bubble that will burst if the price doesn't explode. There have been many stock market "corrections" in previous few decades that have not sent prices skyrocketing, I know there are many additional factors this time. Slow and steady, we silver hoarders will win the race!!

PlataTruth
11th September 2009, 11:38
Has anyone ever seen Shanghai? Did you people not watch the Olympics, China is becoming very modern in the large cities. I think the bigger issue of Chinese buying silver from their government is the 500oz minimum buy in. How many people on this site regularily buy 500oz?

ccjoe
11th September 2009, 11:50
Joe trust me the reason I got into silver almost 30 years ago was because of supply and demand. There are 100's of industrial applications that are only possible because of silver, there is no substitute to our beloved shiny metal. It is your timeline which I have issues with, you seem to NEED silver to go to $300.00 in the next 3 years. Your enthusiasm seems to be the next bubble that will burst if the price doesn't explode. There have been many stock market "corrections" in previous few decades that have not sent prices skyrocketing, I know there are many additional factors this time. Slow and steady, we silver hoarders will win the race!!

Then why NOT think PD is silly at 300 right now as I think it is.
In Catholic schools I was answered questions with "Because that's the way it's always been." I did not buy it then and I'm NOT buying it now.
Give me ONE reason why PD is 300 and silver 16.60?

ccjoe
11th September 2009, 11:52
Has anyone ever seen Shanghai? Did you people not watch the Olympics, China is becoming very modern in the large cities. I think the bigger issue of Chinese buying silver from their government is the 500oz minimum buy in. How many people on this site regularily buy 500oz?

I do and I'm sure others have much more than me. It's many buys from Hannes with a 500 minimum.
We just think all chinese eat rice and do laundry. Times have changed.
300 million Chinese with at least 1300 USD in savings.

maplesilverbug
11th September 2009, 19:25
Oh, Joe....

DaleFromCalgary
11th September 2009, 20:20
"How many people on this site regularily buy 500oz?"

I could if I wanted to, but the stuff is too damn heavy to lug out to the car. Whenever I bought gold this summer, I always picked up a couple of 10-ounce silver bars with the leftover change and slipped them into my jacket pockets, one on each side. Gold has the advantage that I can slip C$3,300 (three Maple Leafs) into my shirt pocket and walk out the store without anyone on the street suspecting anything. Try that with $3,300 of silver!

maplesilverbug
11th September 2009, 21:03
Whenever I bought gold this summer, I always picked up a couple of 10-ounce silver bars with the leftover change and slipped them into my jacket pockets, one on each side. Gold has the advantage that I can slip C$3,300 (three Maple Leafs) into my shirt pocket and walk out the store without anyone on the street suspecting anything.

Soooo....which store, and at what time, are you walking out of with 3 ounces gold in your **** pocket and a 10-ounce silver bar in each jacker pocket? ;)


Reminds me of a crime that happened here in the spring:

Guy parks his car and runs to get a latte or some kind of overpriced coffee. While he is in the store a homeless person breaks in to the guys car and steals the guys briefcase. Inside the briefcase is $30,000 in gold bars and coins (approx. 28 ounces)!!!

The cops arrest the homeless guy SIX (6) hours later and recovery only $10,000. The rest had been spent on drugs.

WTF?!?! WOW!!! How do you blow (pun intended) $20,000 on drugs in SIX freakin' hours!?!? Crazy! Lucky dealer, indeed!


Which store was that again, Dale?

Argyria
11th September 2009, 21:35
Then why NOT think PD is silly at 300 right now as I think it is.
In Catholic schools I was answered questions with "Because that's the way it's always been." I did not buy it then and I'm NOT buying it now.
Give me ONE reason why PD is 300 and silver 16.60?

Because PD is a lot rarer than silver, and is also used in industry.

maplesilverbug
11th September 2009, 21:41
Careful!
Use too much logic and joe will put you on his 'ignore' list!

DaleFromCalgary
12th September 2009, 08:58
"Give me ONE reason why PD is 300 and silver 16.60?

Because PD is a lot rarer than silver, and is also used in industry."

It's an ugly looking metal, though. Last week I noticed a report that the Royal Canadian Mint had issued 2009 1-ounce palladium Maple Leafs, so just for the fun of it I bought a strip of ten at C$369 each. That's all the palladium I'll own; I just wanted bragging rights. I'm still concentrating on getting up to 10% physical gold and 10% physical silver. I'm already at 10% physical oil (mineral rights and partnership units in producing wells) and once I get all the gold and silver for my plan, I'll look at platinum.

maplesilverbug
12th September 2009, 09:37
...so just for the fun of it I bought a strip of ten at C$369 each.

I like a guy who goes out and spends $3690 just for the fun of it!

And into which pocket does your palladium go, Dale? ;)


(you know, you are starting to take on a bit of Bat Man-esque type feel...you and your PM 'utility belt'!)

ccjoe
12th September 2009, 10:29
"Give me ONE reason why PD is 300 and silver 16.60?

Because PD is a lot rarer than silver, and is also used in industry."

It's an ugly looking metal, though. Last week I noticed a report that the Royal Canadian Mint had issued 2009 1-ounce palladium Maple Leafs, so just for the fun of it I bought a strip of ten at C$369 each. That's all the palladium I'll own; I just wanted bragging rights. I'm still concentrating on getting up to 10% physical gold and 10% physical silver. I'm already at 10% physical oil (mineral rights and partnership units in producing wells) and once I get all the gold and silver for my plan, I'll look at platinum.

I googled rarity of PD and could not come up with anything definitive so I'll take you at your word. That's ONE thing.
Silver and PD both industrial and much more so silver than PD.
Wisemen gave silver to M and J and NOT PD> so silver has milleniums of being a rare metal. PD was discovered in 1806 I think.
I'll take my chances with 1000's of ozs of silver against 100's of ozs of PD.
I WILL remain 100% silver until it goes at least over 100> next year.

MiloMorai
12th September 2009, 19:45
"How many people on this site regularily buy 500oz?"

I could if I wanted to, but the stuff is too damn heavy to lug out to the car. Whenever I bought gold this summer, I always picked up a couple of 10-ounce silver bars with the leftover change and slipped them into my jacket pockets, one on each side. Gold has the advantage that I can slip C$3,300 (three Maple Leafs) into my shirt pocket and walk out the store without anyone on the street suspecting anything. Try that with $3,300 of silver!


Come on Dale A Little Monster Box of ASE's once a week you can handle it
I envy your position.
I Only want one box (Dreaming) :D

DaleFromCalgary
12th September 2009, 20:02
"Come on Dale A Little Monster Box of ASE's once a week you can handle it
I envy your position.
I Only want one box (Dreaming)"

My silver is all 10-ounce bars, and the gold is 1-ounce Maple Leafs.

I discovered that all those floppy-disk trays and audio cassette carrying cases gathering dust around my house are just the right size for 10-ounce bars. A bar laid sideways is the same length as a floppy, and two bars will fit in each cassette slot. Unfortunately the 8-track racks don't fit; too wide.

The gold coins I keep in plastic coin pages, which fit nicely into the safe-deposit box.

Argyria
12th September 2009, 23:41
What is sad is one McD's I ordered chicken nuggets. I got home and they were not cooked in the middle. I went back, the manager broke one open and saw it. They replaced it, I went home. Those were also not cooked all the way through. I called them this time. When I was in there I saw a huge group of kids, and all had nuggets. When I spoke with the manager I told them that I saw that and that they were not allowing time for the oil to heat up again, so the timer was not enough. When you constantly throw frozen nuggets into a fryer, the oil temp will go down. The manager did not understand this concept and told me things were fine because she did her checks in the morning, this was lunch time.

The conversation ended with me yelling, you could be killing those kids, and I never went back to that one. Scary.

On a further note, at my work they are required to test the internal temperature of a piece of cooked chicken EVERY TIME they cook one. Each piece. Being caught not doing so is probably grounds for termination.

Argyria
13th September 2009, 00:10
I googled rarity of PD and could not come up with anything definitive so I'll take you at your word. That's ONE thing.
Silver and PD both industrial and much more so silver than PD.

I did some digging on production figures and came up with this.

Total world Pd production in 2007 was about 7 Moz.

http://palladium-bar.blogspot.com/2007/08/palladium-world-mine-production.html

Silver production in 2007 was about 670 Moz.

http://www.silverinstitute.org/pr07may08.php

So it would appear that Pd is about 100X rarer than silver, at least for our purposes. Perhaps there is more Pd than that somewhere in the Earth's crust, but the only metal that counts is metal we can dig up and refine.

ccjoe
13th September 2009, 06:28
I did some digging on production figures and came up with this.

Total world Pd production in 2007 was about 7 Moz.

http://palladium-bar.blogspot.com/2007/08/palladium-world-mine-production.html

Silver production in 2007 was about 670 Moz.

http://www.silverinstitute.org/pr07may08.php

So it would appear that Pd is about 100X rarer than silver, at least for our purposes. Perhaps there is more Pd than that somewhere in the Earth's crust, but the only metal that counts is metal we can dig up and refine.

Maybe Arg the production is NOT the same as PMs IN GROUND, i.e. rarity but only that PD is NOW so expensive that it is more worthwhile to dig than silver.
I know last Nov. when PD was 165, Stillwater (biggest in U.S. for PD mining) LAID off people and STOPPED mining because it wasn't worth it.
FTR--I DO like PD so don't get me wrong. I just think silver is ridiculously priced.

Argyria
13th September 2009, 06:47
Maybe Arg the production is NOT the same as PMs IN GROUND, i.e. rarity but only that PD is NOW so expensive that it is more worthwhile to dig than silver.
I know last Nov. when PD was 165, Stillwater (biggest in U.S. for PD mining) LAID off people and STOPPED mining because it wasn't worth it.
FTR--I DO like PD so don't get me wrong. I just think silver is ridiculously priced.


Both are greatly used up in industrial processes so mining of both must continue most of the time. The US is a very minor player in the world Pd production. As I admitted, production is not the same as rarity, but I'm sure they are closely related. And try as I might, I was not able to dig up actual percentage of Earth's crust data on either of them. So production figures was the best I could do to try to get some handle on how rare each is.

If Pd were anywhere close to the abundance of silver, they would not stop mining at $165. After all, miners would dig up silver like mad if they could get $165 for it. The very fact that they stopped mining at that point would seem to indicate it costs more than that to recover an ounce of Pd. Which would seem to indicate that the grams/ton of that vein is quite a bit lower than most silver veins.

I should have bought some at $165, I did notice it was a relatively low price for the metal and vaguely considered it. I could have doubled my money and bought silver (and probably some gold).

Pd has no history as a monetary metal however, it is only an industrial metal, though it is sometimes used for jewelry. So in an SHTF scenario, it would probably become nearly worthless. Its principle use is in catalytic converters for the auto industry.

DaleFromCalgary
13th September 2009, 08:56
"Pd has no history as a monetary metal however, it is only an industrial metal, though it is sometimes used for jewelry. So in an SHTF scenario, it would probably become nearly worthless. Its principle use is in catalytic converters for the auto industry."

That is why I only bought the RCM strip of ten palladium Maple Leafs for bragging rights, not because I seriously believe in it as a precious metal. It'll sit in my safe deposit box until I eventually get tired of it and sell it off.

Argyria
13th September 2009, 09:29
"Pd has no history as a monetary metal however, it is only an industrial metal, though it is sometimes used for jewelry. So in an SHTF scenario, it would probably become nearly worthless. Its principle use is in catalytic converters for the auto industry."

That is why I only bought the RCM strip of ten palladium Maple Leafs for bragging rights, not because I seriously believe in it as a precious metal. It'll sit in my safe deposit box until I eventually get tired of it and sell it off.

Yeah noone is knocking your purchase. Every now and then Pt and Pd move in opposite directions on their value, because one starts to replace the other as a catalyst. Hopefully you'll double your money. Kinda wish I had a Pd and a Pt 1 ounce coin myself.

ccjoe
13th September 2009, 10:55
Both are greatly used up in industrial processes so mining of both must continue most of the time. The US is a very minor player in the world Pd production. As I admitted, production is not the same as rarity, but I'm sure they are closely related. And try as I might, I was not able to dig up actual percentage of Earth's crust data on either of them. So production figures was the best I could do to try to get some handle on how rare each is.

If Pd were anywhere close to the abundance of silver, they would not stop mining at $165. After all, miners would dig up silver like mad if they could get $165 for it. The very fact that they stopped mining at that point would seem to indicate it costs more than that to recover an ounce of Pd. Which would seem to indicate that the grams/ton of that vein is quite a bit lower than most silver veins.

I should have bought some at $165, I did notice it was a relatively low price for the metal and vaguely considered it. I could have doubled my money and bought silver (and probably some gold).

Pd has no history as a monetary metal however, it is only an industrial metal, though it is sometimes used for jewelry. So in an SHTF scenario, it would probably become nearly worthless. Its principle use is in catalytic converters for the auto industry.
Great job Arg. I'm sorry I didn't pick up on you admitted rarity and production were different. I like how you said "sure they're related" I just hope NON people-skilled here pick up on how you carried on a discussion while giving the other person respect. I wish everyone were like that arg.
And you thought I would "ignore list" you:)

ccjoe
13th September 2009, 10:58
Yeah noone is knocking your purchase. Every now and then Pt and Pd move in opposite directions on their value, because one starts to replace the other as a catalyst. Hopefully you'll double your money. Kinda wish I had a Pd and a Pt 1 ounce coin myself.

I was SO CLOSE to buying a 100 oz bar in Nov but opted for 14 St Gaudens for 18K, about the same price. I, too, arg, could have doubled my money:( Brilliant move by me as a newbie:)

maplesilverbug
13th September 2009, 16:48
Rarity vs. "Price"

Answer me this, joe (although I know you won't/can't):

What is more rare on the face of this planet -- oil or fresh water?

And why the astronomical price difference between the two?

Here's another question:

Which of the two commodities (oop! my bad, water isn't a "legal" commodity) ...substances does every single organism (except maybe Botulism) need to consume to stay alive?

Again, why the massive price differential?


Answers:

1) proven crude oil reserves 1,295,085 million barrels (OPEC) -- one barrel = 42 gallons = 54,400,000 gallons (US); fresh water = 41,000 million cubic ms = 10,831,000 gallons (US); thus fresh water is 5 times more RARE than crude oil.

2) Cost: Oil = US$1.64 per gallon; Fresh Water = US$0.003 per gallon (where I live); thus oil is 546 times more expensive than fresh water.

Kinda weird how something so rare can be so inexpensive.

Rarity, supply and demand...all of it doesn't really anything.
Fear and greed is where it's at, joe!

DaleFromCalgary
13th September 2009, 18:41
"1) proven crude oil reserves 1,295,085 million barrels (OPEC) -- one barrel = 42 gallons = 54,400,000 gallons (US); fresh water = 41,000 million cubic ms = 10,831,000 gallons (US); thus fresh water is 5 times more RARE than crude oil.
2) Cost: Oil = US$1.64 per gallon; Fresh Water = US$0.003 per gallon (where I live); thus oil is 546 times more expensive than fresh water.
Kinda weird how something so rare can be so inexpensive."

As any stamp collector can tell you, rarity does not determine price, it is demand. Fresh water is not evenly distributed throughout the world. It is not as fungible; there are no supertankers trundling across the oceans with water the way that oil is hauled.

LETMYSILVERGO
13th September 2009, 18:50
On a further note, at my work they are required to test the internal temperature of a piece of cooked chicken EVERY TIME they cook one. Each piece. Being caught not doing so is probably grounds for termination.

IF ANY ONE IS DUMB ENOUGH TO EAT AT MCDONALDS, YOU DESERVE TO BE FAT AND EAT RAW CHICKEN ENTRAILS--- JUST SAY

maplesilverbug
13th September 2009, 18:59
As any stamp collector can tell you, rarity does not determine price, it is demand.

I would think, although I have zero factual basis, that every single person in every single country equates a perfect 100% demand for fresh water. The price of fresh water should have an outrageous premium. Whereas silver vs. palladium, ccjoe's cause for concern...just saying...



Fresh water is not evenly distributed throughout the world.

Neither is crude oil.



It [fresh water] is not as fungible;

"Not as"? I would argue "Not at all"!



...there are no supertankers trundling across the oceans with water the way that oil is hauled.

Only because it is not yet an open-market traded commodity.


So, as you can see, ccjoe, comparing the prices of two different materials is a relatively useless endeavor.

SeekrBrnEvryMin
13th September 2009, 19:26
Rarity vs. "Price"

Answer me this, joe (although I know you won't/can't):

What is more rare on the face of this planet -- oil or fresh water?

And why the astronomical price difference between the two?

Here's another question:

Which of the two commodities (oop! my bad, water isn't a "legal" commodity) ...substances does every single organism (except maybe Botulism) need to consume to stay alive?

Again, why the massive price differential?


Answers:

1) proven crude oil reserves 1,295,085 million barrels (OPEC) -- one barrel = 42 gallons = 54,400,000 gallons (US); fresh water = 41,000 million cubic ms = 10,831,000 gallons (US); thus fresh water is 5 times more RARE than crude oil.

2) Cost: Oil = US$1.64 per gallon; Fresh Water = US$0.003 per gallon (where I live); thus oil is 546 times more expensive than fresh water.

Kinda weird how something so rare can be so inexpensive.

Rarity, supply and demand...all of it doesn't really anything.
Fear and greed is where it's at, joe!

According to waterindustry.org, "ground water, fresh water lakes, and rivers account for just over 2 million cubic miles of fresh water."

And, "The earth’s total water supply is estimated to be 330 million cubic miles, and each cubic mile contains more than one trillion gallons."

So, there's just over 2 million trillion gallons of fresh water on Earth.

Maybe you referring to bottled water reserves.

Drink up!

Relayer
13th September 2009, 20:15
Bottled it is! LOL!! Good one seeker. I was wondering how long it would take before someone questioned that figure. Plus there is fresh water underground, yes? How about melting ice, snow? Rain?

maplesilverbug.....Just 10 million gallons of fresh water in the world? Maybe in Lake Michigan. Didnt you even think about that figure a little bit?

Dont forget.....Water is a regulated utility.

maplesilverbug
13th September 2009, 20:48
okay okay!

that was obviously a fck up....sometimes I just go too darn fast...

I'm re-working my figures...but not in an Enron kind of way...

SeekrBrnEvryMin
13th September 2009, 20:54
Come to think of it, I think those damned little bottles of "drinking" water cost more per gallon than gasoline, or, um, petrol.

SeekrBrnEvryMin
13th September 2009, 22:44
[QUOTE=DaleFromCalgary;70053

As any stamp collector can tell you, rarity does not determine price, it is demand. [/QUOTE]



Dale, price is a function of supply (how plentiful or how rare an item for sale is) and demand.

You and MapleBug are on a roll.

P.S. Have you heard the one about the two bald Canadian guys who put their heads together and made an ass out of themselves?

Relayer
13th September 2009, 23:10
128 ounces in a gallon....
480 ounces in case (24x 20 ounces) of bottled drinking water
divided by 128
equals 3.75 gallons
At $4.58 per case at Walmart (I never pay more than that)
equals $1.22 per gallon

Using a common price of $3.99 a case for 24 16.9 ounce bottles, it comes out to $1.26.

Either way, water is still quite a bit cheaper than gas.
Thank goodness!!

Argyria
13th September 2009, 23:42
Answers:

1) proven crude oil reserves 1,295,085 million barrels (OPEC) -- one barrel = 42 gallons = 54,400,000 gallons (US); fresh water = 41,000 million cubic ms = 10,831,000 gallons (US); thus fresh water is 5 times more RARE than crude oil.

2) Cost: Oil = US$1.64 per gallon; Fresh Water = US$0.003 per gallon (where I live); thus oil is 546 times more expensive than fresh water.

Kinda weird how something so rare can be so inexpensive.

Rarity, supply and demand...all of it doesn't really anything.
Fear and greed is where it's at, joe!


What do you mean by 'fresh water'?

Lake Michigan is considered a fresh water body of water. Chicago draws from it for its water needs, so apparently it suffices as fresh water, from a utilitarian point of view.

It contains 1,300,000,000,000,000 gallons, give or take a few quadrillion.

Lake Superior contains 3,000,000,000,000,000 gallons or so, and is said to contain 10% of all fresh liquid water in the world.

http://www.law.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/superior/superiorfacts.html

Thus, there should be about 30,000,000,000,000,000 gallons of fresh water in the world. That's 30 quintillion, or easiest way to write it is 3 x 10^16.

Meanwhile, 1.295 trillion barrels of oil, at 42 gallons per barrel (your figure stated 1,295,085 million barrels) is 54,390,000,000,000 gallons (54.39 trillion).

Dividing water by oil gallons reveals there is about 550 gallons of fresh water for every gallon of oil. Even if much of the fresh water is unusable due to pollution or contamination, it would appear there is hundreds of times more fresh water than there is oil.

Interestingly, that corresponds quite closely to your calculation of the price ratio at 546. The law of supply and demand gets to live another day, after all.

SeekrBrnEvryMin
13th September 2009, 23:50
And the US annexes all of Lake Superior for the win!