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View Full Version : Silver up 0.5% while Gold down 0.5%?



ryshay
31st August 2009, 13:46
Silver may be up only 0.5%, but that is incredible considering:

Gold down -0.5%
Base Metals down -3.3%
Stocks down -1% to -2%
Dollar & USGovt Bonds flat
Oil down -3.5%

Silver should be down around 2% given these other moves.

Something is happening....

Katwoman
31st August 2009, 13:51
It closed at 14.8 on Friday and it is at 14.9 now.......so basically this is meaningless.

MasterQ
31st August 2009, 14:22
Silver may be up only 0.5%, but that is incredible considering:

Gold down -0.5%
Base Metals down -3.3%
Stocks down -1% to -2%
Dollar & USGovt Bonds flat
Oil down -3.5%

Silver should be down around 2% given these other moves.

Something is happening....

Some would say there continues to be pressure on the Silver market and this is a slow retracement back to the key averages.

Continued pressure could have it bottoming out a bit more. Maybe upper 13's but I don't see it lasting as PM's are about to enter their bullish season before December.

-Q

ccjoe
31st August 2009, 15:17
It closed at 14.8 on Friday and it is at 14.9 now.......so basically this is meaningless.

Kitty--I think you are wrong on this and as Q says on the next post> something is happening.
I just came back from back to school shopping at the cape cod mall and I couldn't believe the USD <.19; gold down; pla down; pd up a bit; but market down; I get up at 3 and follow the Asian market basically all night so I knew China got hammered; and silver was DOWN all night; BUT low and behold NOW it's UP!!!!
I was all set to sell some furniture for the usual ONE last buy BUT hopefully it IS too late and silver is up and away forever???

ThreeNinesFine
31st August 2009, 16:10
The commitment of traders report is much more favorable to silver than to gold right now.

Relayer
31st August 2009, 19:53
Silver made a run last night to $14.90 and then got taken down to as low as $14.53 at 6:30 am. It then moved back up to $14.88 around 11:30 am. In the meantime gold meanders around 951 the whole day. THAT is something to take notice of!! It is far from meaningless. Silver is leading gold up.

Master Q, silver is not retracing, it is not bottoming at this time.

It has been in an uptrend since the beginning of Dec08. Following a move to $14.85 it bottomed in May (the whole month was sideways around $12.50).

It then began another move up to $16. Followed by another correction which bottomed July 13 at $12.75.

Today silver is $14.90. And $15+ is now.

1st top $14.85, 2nd top $16.
1st bottom $12, 2nd bottom $12.75.
Higher highs higher lows.

I expect $16+ to form another higher high, followed by another lower low.

Pardon me for pointing out the obvious, but I dont understand why the downside view to $13 when the momentum right now is clearly up and strong.

Relayer
31st August 2009, 21:12
It took 4 attempts to take out $14.50.

Today (right now) is the 3rd attempt at $14.90.

Like gold, there is a battle going on at this level in silver.

Very short term support at $14.75. I like the odds of $15+ silver real soon should this support level hold up.


The dollar took a fair hit this morning and down went silver and gold with it. Unusual, but probably due to the big decline in the Asian markets forcing some selling.

Unlike the dollar, silver and gold recovered.

Now the dollar may rally to 78.25-78.30 and stall the momentum in silver and gold.

MasterQ
31st August 2009, 22:11
Silver made a run last night to $14.90 and then got taken down to as low as $14.53 at 6:30 am. It then moved back up to $14.88 around 11:30 am. In the meantime gold meanders around 951 the whole day. THAT is something to take notice of!! It is far from meaningless. Silver is leading gold up.

Master Q, silver is not retracing, it is not bottoming at this time.

It has been in an uptrend since the beginning of Dec08. Following a move to $14.85 it bottomed in May (the whole month was sideways around $12.50).

It then began another move up to $16. Followed by another correction which bottomed July 13 at $12.75.

Today silver is $14.90. And $15+ is now.

1st top $14.85, 2nd top $16.
1st bottom $12, 2nd bottom $12.75.
Higher highs higher lows.

I expect $16+ to form another higher high, followed by another lower low.

Pardon me for pointing out the obvious, but I dont understand why the downside view to $13 when the momentum right now is clearly up and strong.

I guess the words "could have" and "maybe" elude you my friend.

I'm not calling for anything specific and I did say "some would say".

I appreciate you clarifing it all for me but I think I detailed my current understanding in another post when I looked closer to the recent charts.

Sorry, couldn't resist taking a little defense just in case I was losing my mind as to what I meant and what I was speculating.

Always a pleasure Mr. Relayer. :D

-Q

Argyria
31st August 2009, 23:43
0.5%???

Much ado about nothing, I'd say. Noise in the system.

ccjoe
1st September 2009, 09:55
Kitty--I think you are wrong on this and as Q says on the next post> something is happening.
I just came back from back to school shopping at the cape cod mall and I couldn't believe the USD <.19; gold down; pla down; pd up a bit; but market down; I get up at 3 and follow the Asian market basically all night so I knew China got hammered; and silver was DOWN all night; BUT low and behold NOW it's UP!!!!
I was all set to sell some furniture for the usual ONE last buy BUT hopefully it IS too late and silver is up and away forever???

Here we go again------Silver down all night in Asia and just NOW went green.'
Q--This could mean something?

ryshay
1st September 2009, 10:08
Here we go again------Silver down all night in Asia and just NOW went green.'
Q--This could mean something?

I would have thought just the opposite: China bidding up silver at night, while the bullion bank shorts pound silver down during the day.

It's bizzaro world!

ccjoe
1st September 2009, 11:03
I would have thought just the opposite: China bidding up silver at night, while the bullion bank shorts pound silver down during the day.

It's bizzaro world!

Shay-I think that was Q's point and I agree that something is happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear> Buffalo Springfield
Just hold on to the silver and good things WILL happen.

MasterQ
1st September 2009, 11:25
There is still alot of noise.

Stocks and Equities are down along with oil suddenly taking a dip and the dollar seeing some sky.

The 9 and 18 day are at a battle crossroads right now and though the trend is up there is alot of pressure on it to keep it from truly breaking out.

I'm still looking for the week of 9/14 for the true breakout so this may be some period of high volatility till the smoke clears and we can see what Septembers peak is truly going to be.

With so much resistance I don't see it getting much into the 15's before breaking down for the winter.

Just keeping a close eye on this one. Something is going to erupt soon.

-Q

chroNick
1st September 2009, 13:56
Silver may be up only 0.5%, but that is incredible considering:

Gold down -0.5%
Base Metals down -3.3%
Stocks down -1% to -2%
Dollar & USGovt Bonds flat
Oil down -3.5%

Silver should be down around 2% given these other moves.

Something is happening....

The market from time to time corrects the imbalances.

ccjoe
1st September 2009, 15:28
Let's just face facts here. Gold 960; Pla 1250; PD 290; Silver 15!!!!!!!!!
It seems like a frickin misprint! Silver should be at least as high as the unknown PD! It makes NO sense. Anyone with over 5K ozs silver is going to be worth a lot of money in 2 yrs and don't give me the mantra but with inflation. Bull. Inflation will be 10-15% but silver will go up 1000%. So the math is we're going to be wealthy whether we like it or not. It's only uncommon sense.

Relayer
1st September 2009, 19:29
Wow! I like it when I'm wrong. LOL!!

Somebody is buying gold and silver that havent been buying gold and silver. Newbie psychology indeed!! Looks like there is a growing awareness/concern that is driving PM's higher. Could even be the central banks!!

Silver at 11:18.....$14.84
Silver at 11:22.....$14.89
Silver at 11.25.....$15.06

I think some buyers were determined to get silver over the hump! Again on the 4th try.

Silver has flatlined at $15 since 11:30 am. This can only mean one thing......silver is going up again very soon!

MasterQ......"With so much resistance I don't see it getting much into the 15's before breaking down for the winter."

Relayer........"What resistance do you refer to? No higher than the $15's? Breaking down for the winter? To $13? It sounds like the pendulum has swung the other way on you. From too positive to too negative."

IMO $17-$18 is in the bag before winter. I expect no less than a 30% move up from $14. That would be a minimum target of $18.20. A correction would then find support at $16.50-$16.75 area.

MasterQ
2nd September 2009, 07:51
Wow! I like it when I'm wrong. LOL!!

Somebody is buying gold and silver that havent been buying gold and silver. Newbie psychology indeed!! Looks like there is a growing awareness/concern that is driving PM's higher. Could even be the central banks!!

Silver at 11:18.....$14.84
Silver at 11:22.....$14.89
Silver at 11.25.....$15.06

I think some buyers were determined to get silver over the hump! Again on the 4th try.

Silver has flatlined at $15 since 11:30 am. This can only mean one thing......silver is going up again very soon!

MasterQ......"With so much resistance I don't see it getting much into the 15's before breaking down for the winter."

Relayer........"What resistance do you refer to? No higher than the $15's? Breaking down for the winter? To $13? It sounds like the pendulum has swung the other way on you. From too positive to too negative."

IMO $17-$18 is in the bag before winter. I expect no less than a 30% move up from $14. That would be a minimum target of $18.20. A correction would then find support at $16.50-$16.75 area.

This yet again proves why I have been sidelining it for more than a month now.

Look at these two which I DID call for and which SHOULD have put pressure on metals, namely Silver.

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/oil.jpg

I called for 65-68/barrel oil as a marker for turning point in silver short term.

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f94/mrqdesade/dollar.jpg

And a short term pump of the dollar.

Both of which have worked in complete opposite to silver. Go figure!

Now even some fundamentals are out the door.

If this is as you say Mr. Relayer then how much power can the investor truly have to keep this run up without some other key moving factors like the dollar and other commodities?

If we are heading to break above 16.20, our last high for the year, how much money would you possibly need if you were doing it alone with your fellow investors?

These questions beg answers and though a great deal of me feels investor demand drove it to 16 in the first place it then would suggest it could happen again but that would depend totally on you and I.

This has never been a contest of who is right and wrong here, though it is nice when you are right :P

It is more of a question of calling the right numbers with the right analysis and not just because the trend is up or down. Understanding why, beyond the basic fundamentals that this country is overspent, debt is ridiculous, unemployment is skyrocketed (and not done yet), etc. etc. etc.

I'm not a bear on Silver by no means. I have tried to become a very technical trader, keeping fundamentals in mind. It seems that both of those can be juggled often but people here still get all excited when silver goes up and ride the fundamental gravy train.

Honestly people if this was that easy to call our dips wouldn't be as bad as Kats margin of error :P

-Q

ccjoe
2nd September 2009, 09:31
Ground Hog's Day again!
Down all night but seems that silver is saying I'm through with the crap and I'm going up. Sure I'll get tired of the steep climb to 100 and beyond and take periodic rests, BUT dollar up, stocks up or down, PMG's down today and whenever, I AM going UP and away.

MasterQ
2nd September 2009, 09:51
Ground Hog's Day again!
Down all night but seems that silver is saying I'm through with the crap and I'm going up. Sure I'll get tired of the steep climb to 100 and beyond and take periodic rests, BUT dollar up, stocks up or down, PMG's down today and whenever, I AM going UP and away.

Someone get this kid some ambien.

ccjoe
2nd September 2009, 09:55
Someone get this kid some ambien.

I lost millions in real estate; I grabbed my six figures in silver; I get up at 3 to work out 3/4 hours a day; and my only drug of choice is caffeine! I think I'm behaving accordingly:)
You living in 1836ville should understand people like me who are making one last stand:)

Katwoman
2nd September 2009, 10:16
To make money consistently in real estate you need rental property that can be bought at a good price like say 5 times gross rents. Often times this means buying and managing properties in depressed tough areas with high crime rates. Flipping properties and turning old three families into condos on the contrary is riskier is risky business. The reason for this that the market can correct at anytime leaving you upside down in which case unless you have lots of cash to carry the properties until the market rebounds you are screwed.....even "The Donald" has lost money doing similar speculative things.

A lot of people who lost money speculating in real estate have since moved into PMs thinking this could be the next bubble and some are expecting to get rich in PMs......but the truth is they most likely will not and so they will get out soon.

The rental housing market is the similar to holding physical gold/silver. We talk to people all the time who want to know about it but few have the stomach or interest in being a landlord....because they really just want the money!! When the realize that you have to hold the property for years and manage it they get discourage. The big payoff in rental real estate come 30 years down the road when it is completely paid for and even then you still have to be involved in managing it.

Buying physical require you to store it and it will not make you rich overnight but in the long run it is a very safe investment.

ccjoe
2nd September 2009, 12:55
To make money consistently in real estate you need rental property that can be bought at a good price like say 5 times gross rents. Often times this means buying and managing properties in depressed tough areas with high crime rates. Flipping properties and turning old three families into condos on the contrary is riskier is risky business. The reason for this that the market can correct at anytime leaving you upside down in which case unless you have lots of cash to carry the properties until the market rebounds you are screwed.....even "The Donald" has lost money doing similar speculative things.

A lot of people who lost money speculating in real estate have since moved into PMs thinking this could be the next bubble and some are expecting to get rich in PMs......but the truth is they most likely will not and so they will get out soon.

The rental housing market is the similar to holding physical gold/silver. We talk to people all the time who want to know about it but few have the stomach or interest in being a landlord....because they really just want the money!! When the realize that you have to hold the property for years and manage it they get discourage. The big payoff in rental real estate come 30 years down the road when it is completely paid for and even then you still have to be involved in managing it.

Buying physical require you to store it and it will not make you rich overnight but in the long run it is a very safe investment.

Good points Kitty as I learned AFTER I bought my many rentals.
With Silver there is NO management, mortgage payments, just 400 bucks a year storage charges, and that's it. Also there is NO exigency to get out (flip) as many of us know this is a long term investment. I'm thinking it may be a 2-3 year investment before it goes over 100.
Up .27 cents as I type and gold is skyrocketing too:)

ccjoe
2nd September 2009, 13:02
make that .31 as it went up .04 in one minute.
My point is finally made here as gold is up 20 BUCKS and making headlines all over the news as I always say it does with such a move but guess what?
Gold is up 2.09% and
Silver is up 2.26% and not much is spoken
Imagine when it's over 30 by xmas? It will start to be advertised on tv as the morgan dollars have started (I predicted) and then--get out the caffeinated diet cokes!
Excuse me in the 2 minutes of this post another .03 NOW up .34!

Argyria
3rd September 2009, 05:44
Good points Kitty as I learned AFTER I bought my many rentals.
With Silver there is NO management, mortgage payments, just 400 bucks a year storage charges, and that's it. Also there is NO exigency to get out (flip) as many of us know this is a long term investment. I'm thinking it may be a 2-3 year investment before it goes over 100.
Up .27 cents as I type and gold is skyrocketing too:)


I seriously hope you are more patient than that. I for one doubt silver will hit $100 in the next 3 years.

ccjoe
3rd September 2009, 06:56
I seriously hope you are more patient than that. I for one doubt silver will hit $100 in the next 3 years.

I went 14 years 1988-2002 without a vacation and without leaving our state so your hope is fulfilled Arg as Job has nothing on me:)