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MasterQ
7th May 2009, 08:44
Hello everyone, Q here and new here :D

I was one of the many during the 12's where I had bought in at 13.11 spot just before the dive.

Now I was able to finally get in a reposition when we hit 13.52. It was a good out considering the rest of the day we pulled back to the 13.20's.

Now THIS!?!?!?

There is nothing technical wise other than fundamentals regarding inflation woes (little too late, haven't we all see the inflation demon upon us while we were trying to break out of the 13's before?) are driving investors into the metals again.

It is even crazier right now because we are WAY above the Bollinger Band and have now been for 3 days (including today). According to my broker I went ahead and put 2 units down to short the market at 13.78 thinking we should pull back to 13.04-13.10. Even Scotia says we could pull to 12.94 but we are definitely in an uptrend.

Anyone else out there can make sense of current rally and if you think I'm going to be at a loss to cover my shorts?

-Q

m.palmer1@verizon.net
7th May 2009, 09:01
M Q, Personally I would be leery of shorting right now, because of poss. bank stress impact etc., but also because of various powder keg issues such as Iran, Pakistan to name a few. If serious conflict breaks out, gold would likely & instantly go ballistic w/ silver not far behind. If this happened overnite, you might be in a very bad way the next morning.

unsmart3d
7th May 2009, 09:02
I say we go to 15+ before a pullback happens.

MasterQ
7th May 2009, 09:29
M Q, Personally I would be leery of shorting right now, because of poss. bank stress impact etc., but also because of various powder keg issues such as Iran, Pakistan to name a few. If serious conflict breaks out, gold would likely & instantly go ballistic w/ silver not far behind. If this happened overnite, you might be in a very bad way the next morning.

Leery is an understatement. I have never shorted before because I felt the practice didn't make sense and was very curious to the legality.

I am also aware as you have pointed out the issues in the middle east but they haven't been driving much fear into metals during the whole 12's thing.

I just know right now I got out a bit early, don't know what other signs I missed and my first trial out trying to short is not doing so well.

Not seeing a pullback till we hit 15 I think is a bit far reaching (what the other poster pointed out) IMHO. The Bollinger Bands forbid it unless they too increase dramatically and we either embed or roll this out to 15 in the next 2 days. Remember we can only stay above the bands 3-5 days at most.

-Q

cowboycarl04
7th May 2009, 09:43
I'm never one to give investing advice, but I do watch trends, and I'm terrified of two things: oil/gas prices and homes under water.

We are up near $60 a barrel, and gasoline prices are around $2.25 in Texas prior to this massive jump, which means we'll go up another dime or 15 cents from here. That also means places like New York and Florida are probably paying close to $3 again.

With 21% of all homeowners owing more than their house is worth, a figure that is rising in a straight line up for the past year, on top of rising energy prices yet again, will simply grind this economy into a halt in short order. There are 5 million more people without jobs, and the average American is tapped out to the max. It means American's can't borrow against their house anymore... not without inflation.

I was projecting fall until we see another major decline, but now I think it will be in the next month or two, even with all these "better than expected" numbers. Energy prices and tapped out consumers will stop whatever rally we have.

LoboNoches
7th May 2009, 10:17
Hello everyone, Q here and new here :D

I was one of the many during the 12's where I had bought in at 13.11 spot just before the dive.

Now I was able to finally get in a reposition when we hit 13.52. It was a good out considering the rest of the day we pulled back to the 13.20's.

Now THIS!?!?!?

There is nothing technical wise other than fundamentals regarding inflation woes (little too late, haven't we all see the inflation demon upon us while we were trying to break out of the 13's before?) are driving investors into the metals again.

It is even crazier right now because we are WAY above the Bollinger Band and have now been for 3 days (including today). According to my broker I went ahead and put 2 units down to short the market at 13.78 thinking we should pull back to 13.04-13.10. Even Scotia says we could pull to 12.94 but we are definitely in an uptrend.

Anyone else out there can make sense of current rally and if you think I'm going to be at a loss to cover my shorts?

-Q

There are a couple of threads here breaking down some of the TA that Kat has been doing in regards to Cup and Handle formation that if she is on target coulg explain this.Here is the link to the thread

http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?t=6804&highlight=handle+formation

other1z
7th May 2009, 17:26
There are a couple of threads here breaking down some of the TA that Kat has been doing in regards to Cup and Handle formation that if she is on target coulg explain this.Here is the link to the thread

http://forums.silverseek.com/showthread.php?t=6804&highlight=handle+formation

Easy there cowboy...I thought that was you and me? :lol:

I just posted a similar topic re: strategy moving forward. It's a new day, with completely unpredictable forms. The TA I've seen is a weekly chart showing a clean bull flag breakout. The TA on this calculates a measured move which is about the $19.50 level. This is done by measuring the rally from the bottom in October to the top in February. If you calculate this move again from the high then you arrive at the $19.50 -$20 level.

I don't know how much I trust any TA right now, but it's interesting to see two completely different sources, saying two completely different things.

podrag
7th May 2009, 19:20
I think silver is lining up quite nicely. The shorts will have to raise the price to get the raptors to cough up - as Ted said in his last article. The cup and handle/head and shoulders (however you want to look at it) is looking like it's about to pop IMHO. The shorts will now buy on the way up at least in the mean time-probably up to $19. I would be surprised if we were testing the $20 level within 6-12 months.

Also, the yield on the ten year has just broken out to the upside.

The US dollar has put in a triple top failure/head and shoulders with a slanty neckline. Within the triple-top peak there are also more 'head and shoulders patterns' - making the chart 'self-similar' and giving even further confirmation.The 50-day on the USD has moved below the 100-day and looks like it might go under the 200-day as well. The USD chart simply looks horrible.

The silver/gold ratio has also broken its wedge pattern strongly to the downside.

All this while all theother economic shenanigans goes on in the background and I can't think why anyone wouldn't want to buy silver right now... Well yes I can actually... You might be wanting to buy: guns, ammo, more ammo, food, a water filter, a farm, a small secluded island et cetera..

silverheartbone
7th May 2009, 19:41
I just did my part for insanity.

My first roll of "Junk" Kennedys and 6 Walking liberty halves from the 1940s
(face value 13 dollars) all for 146 Federal Reserve Notes of debt.
Roughly 70 gallons of gasoline or 50 gallons of milk.
I wonder how much gas or milk this purchase will buy me when I am motivated to sell it?

LoboNoches
7th May 2009, 19:49
Easy there cowboy...I thought that was you and me? :lol:

I just posted a similar topic re: strategy moving forward. It's a new day, with completely unpredictable forms. The TA I've seen is a weekly chart showing a clean bull flag breakout. The TA on this calculates a measured move which is about the $19.50 level. This is done by measuring the rally from the bottom in October to the top in February. If you calculate this move again from the high then you arrive at the $19.50 -$20 level.

I don't know how much I trust any TA right now, but it's interesting to see two completely different sources, saying two completely different things.

LOL It shall be interesting indeed.Honestly I don't own enough for the breakout to effect me other than making it more expensive to stack so I'm waiting for the pull back

cugir321
8th May 2009, 21:08
I think the one piece of info that is most important is....Goldman is doing calls. What a great way to make money. Control the market and buy calls. PM's are going up. They are trying to get their working capital the gov said to come up with.

Katwoman
9th May 2009, 09:58
From here my TA says we can go to as high as $17 and then we could pull back to $14 before summer.

cugir321
9th May 2009, 10:13
Kat,

I understand trends and believe in them but trends are less important when you control the market. They can be skewed for a time.


From here my TA says we can go to as high as $17 and then we could pull back to $14 before summer.

MasterQ
9th May 2009, 10:48
I think the one piece of info that is most important is....Goldman is doing calls. What a great way to make money. Control the market and buy calls. PM's are going up. They are trying to get their working capital the gov said to come up with.

Does this say anything about how Chase has been involved as well?

The rally tapered to 13.97 with my broker and 14 in the futures.

The "guru" they have over there says we should see a pull back Mon/Tues but how far is anyones guess if the market is being controlled once again.

I guess it doesn't help that my hairs are up with my broker saying it would be best to put a stop at 14.20 just in case of a continuous breakout Monday morning. I ask, how is that even possible above the bollinger band so many days in a row. This would be 4 and I can not see where that has happened at all in the last 12-24 months!??!

Hopefully we do come down to somewhere in the 13.20's and then ride this thing to the top. Chances are more that if we embed the stochastics I may be in catch up mode for the short covering until we peak at whatever it is.

-Q

other1z
9th May 2009, 12:35
The "guru" they have over there says we should see a pull back Mon/Tues but how far is anyones guess if the market is being controlled once again.

I guess it doesn't help that my hairs are up with my broker saying it would be best to put a stop at 14.20 just in case of a continuous breakout Monday morning. I ask, how is that even possible above the bollinger band so many days in a row. This would be 4 and I can not see where that has happened at all in the last 12-24 months!??!

Hopefully we do come down to somewhere in the 13.20's and then ride this thing to the top. Chances are more that if we embed the stochastics I may be in catch up mode for the short covering until we peak at whatever it is.

-Q

Hey man.

You have "guru" in quotes, so you likely already know this, but take all TA, gurus and soothsayers with a grain of salt. Nobody can call the market, at least honestly. Obviously, if you're a Hunt Brother who has knowledge of a big plan to do something, then you have an idea which direction the market will go, but for every guru that is saying "TA says it's going down", there is one to say "TA says it's going up". Hell...look at this thread...there are polar opposite views of TA illustrated right here, and by [some] supposed gurus of the economics of PM commodity futures. Stochastics is exactly that...stochastics. A stochastic process is one whose behavior is non-deterministic in that a system's subsequent state is determined both by the process's predictable actions and by a random element. The latter portion, alone, is enough to label TA, as a guess only. People attach the term "TA", and unfortunately, often take it as law.

So...this is not a thread for "hating" TA, but recognize that whatever "way" you decide to go (i.e. short or otherwise) you are succumbing to a guess. People who posted in this thread with their guesses said the same thing a few months ago and were incorrect. Again...I'm not hatin' them...I'm just saying that as long as that pesky old "random" element is present, I've got some land in California for sale for $0.12 a sq.ft.

Lastly, I searched a ways back, and the "Insanity or Breakout" title has been used over and over again. It is ironic.

cugir321
9th May 2009, 13:32
If Goldman and sons bought a large amount of pm calls, then we will find out how powerful they are soon. If similiar people and organizations control the silver and gold market then it should continue to rise. I think they control the market. I could be wrong....This should put the question to rest once and for all. They're not buying calls to lose money. I think they have inside information and are using it. That would not be random.

other1z
10th May 2009, 14:26
You're right...that would not be random, but that doesn't eliminate other random elements. But if that were the case, then the entire system is bogus, for at least a period of time, and no TA, guess, or other analysis will tell you anything correct. For me...I don't believe inside info on that magnitude is there. Besides...for them to do it in silver seems like small pickins to me.

cugir321
10th May 2009, 14:39
You can't hold back the waves forever but you can build a wall that will hold for a time. All it takes is a little manipulation to make a killing and then they can pull back. TA will prevail eventually.


You're right...that would not be random, but that doesn't eliminate other random elements. But if that were the case, then the entire system is bogus, for at least a period of time, and no TA, guess, or other analysis will tell you anything correct. For me...I don't believe inside info on that magnitude is there. Besides...for them to do it in silver seems like small pickins to me.

SeekrBrnEvryMin
10th May 2009, 22:24
I think the one piece of info that is most important is....Goldman is doing calls. What a great way to make money. Control the market and buy calls. PM's are going up. They are trying to get their working capital the gov said to come up with.

I'm not familiar with puts and calls as it pertains to silver, but a "call" is an option to buy -- but not an obligation. Am I right so far?

If I were to buy a call, an option to buy in the future, I would be betting that the price would be falling.

Is this what GS is doing?

cugir321
10th May 2009, 22:35
A call is a bet it's going up. Now why would they buy a bet PM's are going up? They can't afford to lose a lot of money.


I'm not familiar with puts and calls as it pertains to silver, but a "call" is an option to buy -- but not an obligation. Am I right so far?

If I were to buy a call, an option to buy in the future, I would be betting that the price would be falling.

Is this what GS is doing?

MasterQ
11th May 2009, 08:04
Hey man.

You have "guru" in quotes, so you likely already know this, but take all TA, gurus and soothsayers with a grain of salt. Nobody can call the market, at least honestly. Obviously, if you're a Hunt Brother who has knowledge of a big plan to do something, then you have an idea which direction the market will go, but for every guru that is saying "TA says it's going down", there is one to say "TA says it's going up". Hell...look at this thread...there are polar opposite views of TA illustrated right here, and by [some] supposed gurus of the economics of PM commodity futures. Stochastics is exactly that...stochastics. A stochastic process is one whose behavior is non-deterministic in that a system's subsequent state is determined both by the process's predictable actions and by a random element. The latter portion, alone, is enough to label TA, as a guess only. People attach the term "TA", and unfortunately, often take it as law.

So...this is not a thread for "hating" TA, but recognize that whatever "way" you decide to go (i.e. short or otherwise) you are succumbing to a guess. People who posted in this thread with their guesses said the same thing a few months ago and were incorrect. Again...I'm not hatin' them...I'm just saying that as long as that pesky old "random" element is present, I've got some land in California for sale for $0.12 a sq.ft.

Lastly, I searched a ways back, and the "Insanity or Breakout" title has been used over and over again. It is ironic.

Well well, thank you for your response.

I can appreciate very much polar opposites. It helps in making a more informed decision or a least refine the thought process.

I would hate to think anyone of us are succumbing to a guess. The word "guess" leaves so much to be desired especially when it comes to something that can be researched very well. Perhaps educated guess but I have a tendency to agree that many times when you feel your making the best decision it turns out looking like a guess. Very unfortunate.

As for irony of the title, I cannot agree more but for a quick entrance to get some attention to my discussion it seems to have done its job :D

-Q

MasterQ
11th May 2009, 10:03
M Q, Personally I would be leery of shorting right now, because of poss. bank stress impact etc., but also because of various powder keg issues such as Iran, Pakistan to name a few. If serious conflict breaks out, gold would likely & instantly go ballistic w/ silver not far behind. If this happened overnite, you might be in a very bad way the next morning.




floatingtank (http://www.floatingtank.at)|build muscle (http://fizogen.com/)

Were the links supposed to be an addition to the repeat response? I believe Mpalmer already told me the exact same thing. (jic it was an error of not hitting quotes from another user or if this is palmers alt)

In any event, I didn't respond to the "powder keg" scenario but I do believe our boys (US) will have no problems over there. News this morning already is showing how we have things pretty much in control with the Toughless-aliban.

Iran's boy is about to be ousted from my understanding, or is my information outdated? Not kicked out but not exactly going to be re-elected. Now, if the nervousness is about who will take over his position and will he be worse, that is another topic I'm sure but nothing that is going to directly impact PM's right now.

-Q

Relayer
11th May 2009, 20:31
FWIW.......going back 3 years, last week was the second strongest weekly gain. I will be surprised if it gives back much of it. Significantly, the larger move was simply a dead cat bounce off an 8 week decline which went from $19 to $10.31. Last week's gain was part of an up trend move after (guess what?) an 8 week correction. The $14-$15 range is important. As you can see in the chart, a lot of action has occurred within this range. Right now the RSI and MACD are no where's near overbought. IMO there may be a pause here in this range or the price will continue climbing up into the $16 to $17 range.

Keep an eye on the US dollar index. If it continues lower overnight it will support silver and gold prices and today's low of $13.69 may have been your opportunity to cover. If it rallies above 83 you may get another opportunity to profit on your short.

Good luck!!

$USD Chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p93425033515


$SILVER Chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31098443672

Relayer
11th May 2009, 21:11
The PM markets sold off overseas and rallied back near the highs in NY. that is the reverse of what normally happens.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

MasterQ
11th May 2009, 22:39
FWIW.......going back 3 years, last week was the second strongest weekly gain. I will be surprised if it gives back much of it. Significantly, the larger move was simply a dead cat bounce off an 8 week decline which went from $19 to $10.31. Last week's gain was part of an up trend move after (guess what?) an 8 week correction. The $14-$15 range is important. As you can see in the chart, a lot of action has occurred within this range. Right now the RSI and MACD are no where's near overbought. IMO there may be a pause here in this range or the price will continue climbing up into the $16 to $17 range.

Keep an eye on the US dollar index. If it continues lower overnight it will support silver and gold prices and today's low of $13.69 may have been your opportunity to cover. If it rallies above 83 you may get another opportunity to profit on your short.

Good luck!!

$USD Chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p93425033515


$SILVER Chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31098443672

TYVM for the charts.

Yes, I have been looking at the $ chart and it has gone into oversold condition. It also has almost gone imbedded but pulled a bit up today. I believe the trend will follow suit and the $ should get some recovery with Wed-Fri's news.

There was a report out from a major silver tracker (can't reveal the name sorry) who says we are looking at $11.60 - $14.40 trading range till the end of July.

Considering I"m at 13.78 and trying to short, I'm not really in such a bad position considering those figures :D

Again thank you everyone for the input. I sure hope I can assist as I get info as well! :D

-Q

m.palmer1@verizon.net
11th May 2009, 22:56
M Q, Personally I would be leery of shorting right now, because of poss. bank stress impact etc., but also because of various powder keg issues such as Iran, Pakistan to name a few. If serious conflict breaks out, gold would likely & instantly go ballistic w/ silver not far behind. If this happened overnite, you might be in a very bad way the next morning.




floatingtank (http://www.floatingtank.at)|build muscle (http://fizogen.com/)

SEBI 123 Is using my post to SPAM!

MasterQ
11th May 2009, 22:59
SEBI 123 Is using my post to SPAM!

Already called im out for ya M :D

-Q

scout_
12th May 2009, 06:24
My toughts is that EUR/USD will go up to broke 1.3738 and slightly higher, so silver has great chances to reach 15 this week:

Just logged in to blog services, to have picture saving place:

http://scoutfinance.blogspot.com/

cugir321
12th May 2009, 09:16
doesn't look like shorting will work this time....

MasterQ
12th May 2009, 14:59
doesn't look like shorting will work this time....

:(

First time out and this.

1. Knowing the dollar has had a rally up to now, How can it go oversold and not rebound?

2. How can silver be overbought, with embedded stochastics, at this time of year, and not pull back much at all?

3. How can something mentioned time and time again in campaign speeches with the overhaul of the healthcare system really have any direct proportion to the PM market? (and do you truly think it is going to work this time?!?!?)

4. I'm not the only one calling for shorts, though I was part of the few the day I did. Now there are more firms interested as of yesterday in shorting as they are seeing we are waaaaaaay overbought.

5. and probably the most important one....The taller you are the harder you fall.

Not trying to be right here just trying to see what I have missed?!?!!?

You just CANNOT go from 12.02 to 14's and not have any correction for this!?!?!?

13.66 just isn't going to cut it.

-Q

cugir321
12th May 2009, 19:34
Gov may want the dollar to drop. I don't think health care has anything to do with this.

Look at jan to march of last year on kitco's graphs....not saying it didn't pull back a bit from time to time...but not much and not for long.

Stat's aren't everything in this market. Especially in the short term. Big players are trying to get big money. The people that have some pull on moving product.

The silver market was stunted the first quarter....there's stored energy and manipulitive players. It usually rises the first quarter to about may. I could see maybe a 1.00 correction. Hopefully you get back to were you can deal with it.

A lot of smart people lost a lot of money in sept last year. I have to keep going back to Goldman Sachs....why did they and their buddies recently buy calls??? These guys aren't stupid and they run half the government.

This is a dangerous time of the year for shorts. Silver needs to correct. It's way out of wack to gold. 65 to 1 presently. The longer it stays down the more it needs to go up. I wish you well.



:(

First time out and this.

1. Knowing the dollar has had a rally up to now, How can it go oversold and not rebound?

2. How can silver be overbought, with embedded stochastics, at this time of year, and not pull back much at all?

3. How can something mentioned time and time again in campaign speeches with the overhaul of the healthcare system really have any direct proportion to the PM market? (and do you truly think it is going to work this time?!?!?)

4. I'm not the only one calling for shorts, though I was part of the few the day I did. Now there are more firms interested as of yesterday in shorting as they are seeing we are waaaaaaay overbought.

5. and probably the most important one....The taller you are the harder you fall.

Not trying to be right here just trying to see what I have missed?!?!!?

You just CANNOT go from 12.02 to 14's and not have any correction for this!?!?!?

13.66 just isn't going to cut it.

-Q

MasterQ
12th May 2009, 19:52
The silver market was stunted the first quarter....there's stored energy and manipulitive players. It usually rises the first quarter to about may. I could see maybe a 1.00 correction. Hopefully you get back to were you can deal with it.

There is waaaay too much tech saying the same.


A lot of smart people lost a lot of money in sept last year. I have to keep going back to Goldman Sachs....why did they and their buddies recently buy calls??? These guys aren't stupid and they run half the government.


Where is this information sourced? I know who Goldman is, trust me, but where did you read/hear about their buddies recently buying calls? When you see embedded stochastics and we have had a run up on top of them not correcting after one day the natural inclination would be to buy calls for the very short term. I'm just hoping it fizzles before 14.40 the most and get the $1.00 drop you mentioned.


This is a dangerous time of the year for shorts. Silver needs to correct. It's way out of wack to gold. 65 to 1 presently. The longer it stays down the more it needs to go up. I wish you well.

Serious understatement :P Thank you very much for your wishes.

cugir321
12th May 2009, 20:40
Combined with the time of the year it makes sense.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=7787&SearchParam=Adrian%20Douglas


There is waaaay too much tech saying the same.



Where is this information sourced? I know who Goldman is, trust me, but where did you read/hear about their buddies recently buying calls? When you see embedded stochastics and we have had a run up on top of them not correcting after one day the natural inclination would be to buy calls for the very short term. I'm just hoping it fizzles before 14.40 the most and get the $1.00 drop you mentioned.



Serious understatement :P Thank you very much for your wishes.

Relayer
12th May 2009, 21:25
MasterQ, I do not see technical indications crying out for a short position. Silver on the daily chart has not exceeded 70 on the RSI or the MACD yet. It is not overbought. Tomorrow, it will probably become overbought. Of course it could stay overbought for several days. The $USD is not oversold yet either. And it probably will be tomorrow. But it also could stay overbought for several days. I dont see your rationale for a short in the charts. Your timing for it was too early in the move. As you can see in the chart below, there are plenty of examples to look at. There is one example where it went from $10.5 to $14.5 with out a 50 cent correction! Compare the level of the RSI then to now. Same with MACD.

Here we are at KEY INFLECTION POINTs AGAIN in the PM's. This is not just another rally. This is bunker hill! There is still a possibility that it will fizzle but IMO its still too early to bet on it. When $14.50 goes to the bulls, its up up and away.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p83105411006

PS......the dollar just broke below 82!

MasterQ
12th May 2009, 22:40
Gov may want the dollar to drop. I don't think health care has anything to do with this.

Look at jan to march of last year on kitco's graphs....not saying it didn't pull back a bit from time to time...but not much and not for long.

Stat's aren't everything in this market. Especially in the short term. Big players are trying to get big money. The people that have some pull on moving product.

The silver market was stunted the first quarter....there's stored energy and manipulitive players. It usually rises the first quarter to about may. I could see maybe a 1.00 correction. Hopefully you get back to were you can deal with it.

A lot of smart people lost a lot of money in sept last year. I have to keep going back to Goldman Sachs....why did they and their buddies recently buy calls??? These guys aren't stupid and they run half the government.

This is a dangerous time of the year for shorts. Silver needs to correct. It's way out of wack to gold. 65 to 1 presently. The longer it stays down the more it needs to go up. I wish you well.


MasterQ, I do not see technical indications crying out for a short position. Silver on the daily chart has not exceeded 70 on the RSI or the MACD yet. It is not overbought. Tomorrow, it will probably become overbought. Of course it could stay overbought for several days. The $USD is not oversold yet either. And it probably will be tomorrow. But it also could stay overbought for several days. I dont see your rationale for a short in the charts. Your timing for it was too early in the move. As you can see in the chart below, there are plenty of examples to look at. There is one example where it went from $10.5 to $14.5 with out a 50 cent correction! Compare the level of the RSI then to now. Same with MACD.

Here we are at KEY INFLECTION POINTs AGAIN in the PM's. This is not just another rally. This is bunker hill! There is still a possibility that it will fizzle but IMO its still too early to bet on it. When $14.50 goes to the bulls, its up up and away.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p83105411006

PS......the dollar just broke below 82!


It isn't rationale, it is what I have been told and I am relaying it back for discusssion. All the more the reason I even post here. I certainly do appreciate you pointing out some more obvious facts I have missed.

FYI, the broker I spoke with today said the RSI was at 80 and this time it was at 60 showing a loss in momentum to keep the rallying without at least some sort of correction. Did I miss something there too?

Is it then your opinion (forgive the density) I should cover my shorts first thing in the morning and wait for the next train as it definitely is going to be higher than my original 13.78 short?

It is what I am gathering as momentum and felt strongly around 5pm my time, which could have been just enough time to get out at 14.20 with only a $1400 loss. :(

Once again, all is appreciated!! :D

-Q

cugir321
12th May 2009, 23:08
Master, I'm not a broker. If I was I would have bought BAC at 1.60 and at least doubled my money considering nobody was crashing before the stress tests. Hindsight is 20/20. I can't tell you what to do. It's going to drop sometime! lol!

I think the Goldman thing is major. Maybe your broker can give you some insight on the calls. Let me know if you hear anything new. Silver rises every year around these few months. There's no more good news with the banks. (like it was good news) GM is falling. The dollar is falling. The big wig lady from Goldman is saying 1000 for the S&P by dec.....that alone tells me the market is going down. Whatever Goldman says in the press....I'll think the opposite. It feels contrived. The pm call thing seems hidden. That seems credible to me.

I wish I knew more about the stock market. I'd short real estate with SRS. I just don't know shorting. I know I'm going to kick myself in the butt for not buying a nice chunk of it.


It isn't rationale, it is what I have been told and I am relaying it back for discusssion. All the more the reason I even post here. I certainly do appreciate you pointing out some more obvious facts I have missed.

FYI, the broker I spoke with today said the RSI was at 80 and this time it was at 60 showing a loss in momentum to keep the rallying without at least some sort of correction. Did I miss something there too?

Is it then your opinion (forgive the density) I should cover my shorts first thing in the morning and wait for the next train as it definitely is going to be higher than my original 13.78 short?

It is what I am gathering as momentum and felt strongly around 5pm my time, which could have been just enough time to get out at 14.20 with only a $1400 loss. :(

Once again, all is appreciated!! :D

-Q

Relayer
12th May 2009, 23:21
Maybe your broker was giving you a very short term/intraday reading. This might have conflicted uour longer term perspective/trade. Personally I would not attempt to pinpoint entry's and exits based on a 30 or sixty minute chart unless I was day trading.

I wish I could tell you what the best course of action would be. Daily moves of 40-50 cents are common in silver. 30 cent moves can occur in 10 minutes. My sense is that silver/gold is headed higher tonight/tomorrow. It could run till Friday morning and then start selling off for the weekend close.

Best wishes and good luck!

MasterQ
13th May 2009, 09:00
OH MY DROP MY LOVELY DROP YOU MADE IT!!!

WOOHOO!!!

Hehe...ok sorry...but after all the emotions and discussions it is very nice to not see 14's anymore!!!!
(ok a lil prema...but still we are down..just as long as we don't go to 14.20's +)

Now..that being said...I certainly don't mind seeing it again...WHEN I'M LONG!

Hopefully we can get that 1.00 drop and be near 12.80 or so.

Sometimes when your short the patient one wins.

-Q

cugir321
13th May 2009, 21:05
I'm pullin for ya!!!! Good luck!



OH MY DROP MY LOVELY DROP YOU MADE IT!!!

WOOHOO!!!

Hehe...ok sorry...but after all the emotions and discussions it is very nice to not see 14's anymore!!!!
(ok a lil prema...but still we are down..just as long as we don't go to 14.20's +)

Now..that being said...I certainly don't mind seeing it again...WHEN I'M LONG!

Hopefully we can get that 1.00 drop and be near 12.80 or so.

Sometimes when your short the patient one wins.

-Q

realexpectations
14th May 2009, 00:08
MQ, we have seen a really strong surge without any additional reasoning than what was already "out there". Of course those on the short side (I am one of them with you) get a bit edgy when that happens. Especially in times like this when the general consensus is that we are in a longer trending bull market for silver. Rest assured, even within an uptrend, there will be pull-backs. The questions are, "will the pull-back be enough?" and " will they happen in time for us to cover at a profit?" I believe we will likely see a pull-back to between $12-12.50. I will cover shortly before that, but likely be disappointed when it drops lower than I expected.

I have heard it said that actively trading silver is not for the faint of heart. Especially if you are shorting. Doubly especially if you are doing leveraged trades.

One must always be willing to lose what they risk. And harder yet, one must be emotionally detached from the outcome. Emotion drives the market, and smart investors use that to their advantage rather than getting burned by their emotions.

Just MHO.

MasterQ
14th May 2009, 07:29
MQ, we have seen a really strong surge without any additional reasoning than what was already "out there". Of course those on the short side (I am one of them with you) get a bit edgy when that happens. Especially in times like this when the general consensus is that we are in a longer trending bull market for silver. Rest assured, even within an uptrend, there will be pull-backs. The questions are, "will the pull-back be enough?" and " will they happen in time for us to cover at a profit?" I believe we will likely see a pull-back to between $12-12.50. I will cover shortly before that, but likely be disappointed when it drops lower than I expected.

I have heard it said that actively trading silver is not for the faint of heart. Especially if you are shorting. Doubly especially if you are doing leveraged trades.

One must always be willing to lose what they risk. And harder yet, one must be emotionally detached from the outcome. Emotion drives the market, and smart investors use that to their advantage rather than getting burned by their emotions.

Just MHO.

I couldn't agree more and very very well said.

I can appreciate the practice of shorting but I am not one who can do it so freely. Perhaps when we start the inevitable drop in August I'll get back on the ski slope. Until then I'll just play the pullbacks and go long. Trying to predict them is much harder than just waiting for them :D

You note something else relayer may have missed, "emotions drive the market" and that is why also I shorted.

RSI IS above 60 and anything above 60 is overbought. If you like 70 or 80 to reallllly reassure your short position then by all means. To each his/her own.

The only thing I found truly, after digesting it all, gut wrenching was where the dang dollar was going. I also felt it had been oversold, in fact it was embedded yesterday. I'm not sure how long the dollar has ever stayed embedded but considering the powers that be and namely the manipulaters that be, I don't think staying embedded for any length of time makes things economically better, other than allowing other currencies to buy more here.

Considering the bulk of what we export is mainly debt (haha), what else would be the motivation to tank the dollar other than occurences we have already heard. I certainly don't think the dollar was being looked at as a safehaven, especially when the AUS was taking all the sparkle away.

Thanks again and enjoy the 13's..looks like they won't be here much longer. (13.70 hong kong early this morning :D )

-Q

cugir321
14th May 2009, 07:42
Now comes the part that is interesting....asia fell this morning. PM's seem to be reconnected to oil. The real question is will oil fall below 50.00 again.


I couldn't agree more and very very well said.

I can appreciate the practice of shorting but I am not one who can do it so freely. Perhaps when we start the inevitable drop in August I'll get back on the ski slope. Until then I'll just play the pullbacks and go long. Trying to predict them is much harder than just waiting for them :D

You note something else relayer may have missed, "emotions drive the market" and that is why also I shorted.

RSI IS above 60 and anything above 60 is overbought. If you like 70 or 80 to reallllly reassure your short position then by all means. To each his/her own.

The only thing I found truly, after digesting it all, gut wrenching was where the dang dollar was going. I also felt it had been oversold, in fact it was embedded yesterday. I'm not sure how long the dollar has ever stayed embedded but considering the powers that be and namely the manipulaters that be, I don't think staying embedded for any length of time makes things economically better, other than allowing other currencies to buy more here.

Considering the bulk of what we export is mainly debt (haha), what else would be the motivation to tank the dollar other than occurences we have already heard. I certainly don't think the dollar was being looked at as a safehaven, especially when the AUS was taking all the sparkle away.

Thanks again and enjoy the 13's..looks like they won't be here much longer. (13.70 hong kong early this morning :D )

-Q

MasterQ
14th May 2009, 07:54
Considering we are about to embark on the memorial day vacationers launch into traveling hell summer?!?!?

Hmm...I would think oil is going to go up unless your talking for the short term as more and more people are probably NOT going to be traveling.

With as many job losses, economy still trying to get a foot hold, I don't think it would be smart for the traders to start boosting oil and thus boosting gas.

Haven't they learned their lesson already with last years overindulgence.

Saudia Arabia itself was screaming so hard we could hear it here with the HUGE correction.

This just brings up the sadness during the elective process where there were so many idiots saying "drill baby drill" and have NO fracking idea what they were talking about.

It isn't shortage or heavy demand people IT IS OPEC AND PROFITING OIL COUNTRIES ya n00bs!!!!!

/palmface

-Q

realexpectations
14th May 2009, 12:48
I too believe that oil is heavily manipulated. Whenever people use "supply and demand" to point to gas prices, they do their intro to economics teachers proud. However they fail to realize that economics does not end with Econ 101. There are a whole string of courses which deal with monopolies and cartels. As we know from silver, one does not need to have an absolute monopoly in order to influence a market. Cartels can easily influence it enough.

That being said, that is partially why the price of silver is not always inversely related to the strength of the dollar, or price of oil. There are a lot of factors involved. I try to look at as many of them as I can, and wherever a majority of them point, that is where I assume that the price is going. Of course we all know what happens when we ass-u-me anything. Which is when I get burned.

realexpectations
14th May 2009, 12:50
Oh yeah, and I love it when they bump up gas prices $.40-60 the month prior to peak travel times so that they can drop it by a dime and get everyone thinking they did us a favor. "Now we should all drive across country!"

Relayer
14th May 2009, 14:11
Please understand I have no problem with your shorting silver. Just giving input on the market. IMO shorting at this time is higher than normal risk! Good luck!!

pmstacker
14th May 2009, 14:28
Gas prices are no doubt manipulated by the refiners, but the price of oil as a commodity is manipulated by opec. They choose when to turn it on and off and the markets reflect their decisions.

MasterQ
14th May 2009, 14:45
Please understand I have no problem with your shorting silver. Just giving input on the market. IMO shorting at this time is higher than normal risk! Good luck!!

No worries...text type gets misinterpreted often.

I appreciate debate on either front.

Silver today, however, didn't do a damn thing :(

Was hoping for continued drop but maybe this is a slight correction for how the dollar is acting lately.

Again, silver often is attached to the dollar and/or oil. This time happens to be one where silver is. I've been watching the dollar rise then tank near the NY close and what happened to silver? Just the opposite lol!

Inversely related I should have said.

-Q

Katwoman
15th May 2009, 10:18
Inflation is coming and so commodities are starting to move as a result. This is the real deal. We will be seeing 7% inflation soon and Bernanke will not be able to suck it up with his sham wow bonds. Social security is broke, the baby boomers are not going back to spending and the job losses and damage to commercial real estate from auto dealer closings will make the recovery nearly impossible. Tax revenues will continue to slide while outlays continue to increase and this will force the government to print more money which will make matters worse. I see silver at $50 in less than 4 years.

Steadfast
15th May 2009, 11:55
Inflation is coming and so commodities are starting to move as a result. This is the real deal. We will be seeing 7% inflation soon and Bernanke will not be able to suck it up with his sham wow bonds. Social security is broke, the baby boomers are not going back to spending and the job losses and damage to commercial real estate from auto dealer closings will make the recovery nearly impossible. Tax revenues will continue to slide while outlays continue to increase and this will force the government to print more money which will make matters worse. I see silver at $50 in less than 4 years.

More like in less than 1 year...

MasterQ
20th May 2009, 08:26
MQ, we have seen a really strong surge without any additional reasoning than what was already "out there". Of course those on the short side (I am one of them with you) get a bit edgy when that happens. Especially in times like this when the general consensus is that we are in a longer trending bull market for silver. Rest assured, even within an uptrend, there will be pull-backs. The questions are, "will the pull-back be enough?" and " will they happen in time for us to cover at a profit?" I believe we will likely see a pull-back to between $12-12.50. I will cover shortly before that, but likely be disappointed when it drops lower than I expected.

I have heard it said that actively trading silver is not for the faint of heart. Especially if you are shorting. Doubly especially if you are doing leveraged trades.

One must always be willing to lose what they risk. And harder yet, one must be emotionally detached from the outcome. Emotion drives the market, and smart investors use that to their advantage rather than getting burned by their emotions.

Just MHO.

Are there any rain chants we can do or some pixie dust we can drop?

j/k

Emotions run high, especially up here in the 14.20's again. Let us see.

-Q

Relayer
20th May 2009, 21:36
MasterQ...."The only thing I found truly, after digesting it all, gut wrenching was where the dang dollar was going. I also felt it had been oversold, in fact it was embedded yesterday. I'm not sure how long the dollar has ever stayed embedded...."

Relayer...."Looks like 2-3 weeks on average"
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75163228161

MasterQ...."Considering the bulk of what we export is mainly debt (haha), what else would be the motivation to tank the dollar other than occurrences we have already heard."

Relayer...."How about this....The largest section of the global over-the-counter derivatives markets remains interest rate derivatives, even after an 8.6 per cent drop, which took the sector to $US418.7 trillion. Like I said previously, tarp repayment is chump change!"




MasterQ...." I certainly don't think the dollar was being looked at as a safehaven....."

Relayer...."You must be looking in the wrong places." Simply google news under "dollar safe haven" to see how evident this is. I would also raise this question....what possible reason could there be for the dollar to rise (during a period when money printing and government spending, and unbelievable levels of debt escalation are occurring) other than because of its safe haven status? What else has the dollar going for it?

This does not mean I have or am endorsing the idea that the dollar is a safe haven. But many around the globe have taken it to be so!

Relayer
20th May 2009, 22:16
Look at the following chart. There are two surges in the dollar.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75163228161

The first from 72 to 88. Reflecting on those days, what do we now know was happening? Massive deleveraging and yen carry trade balancing and the stock market crashing. IMO these were THE FUNDAMENTAL underlying factors carrying the dollar higher.

Then a parabolic correction to the parbolic move up.

A second major impulse move up occurring late Dec08 to Mar09 from 78 to 89. By this time fear was at its height. IMO the second leg up was fundamentally a global flight to safety in the dollar.

Today its clear that another steep decline is in process. Notice it began at about the same time the government was exploding its debt. Here is an excerpt from an article on safe haven.com

But the US-dollar's "risk-aversion" rally came to an abrupt end on March 18th, when the Federal Reserve shocked the markets by announcing that it would unleash its nuclear weapon, - "Quantitative Easing," (QE) by printing $1.1-trillion US-dollars off its electronic printing press, to monetize US T-Notes and mortgage backed securities, in an all-out effort to prevent a deflationary spiral in the US-economy, which in turn, could lead to widespread defaults on debt and bankruptcies.


http://www.safehaven.com/article-13381.htm

JoeSixPack
21st May 2009, 00:58
In 2007 and most of 2008, eveeryone thought this was an American problem. Well it is not- it is a global financial collapse. Everyone more or less realizes that now.

At this point I think mainly we are seeing competition for who has the best solution, and the competition is pretty weak.