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Maple Silver Syrup
3rd May 2009, 12:00
I've been hearing that there is an abundance of silver in the world. An expected shortage of silver was one of the reasons why I was attracted to silver. Does anyone have any recent research which still confirms a pending silver shortage?

aequitas
3rd May 2009, 12:19
Between 1990 and 2005, silver production kept falling short of industrial consumption. For most of the period, the shortfall was about 200 million ounces per year, although some estimates most notably the World Silver Survey peg the deficit as being higher, more than 300 million ounces per year over the same time frame. This deficit has been eating into above-ground stocks of silver at a phenomenal rate for decades, eroding total world bullion inventories from an estimated 2.1 billion ounces in 1990 to around 400 million ounces today a drop of 1.7 billion ounces. A large chunk of the drop, about 240 million ounces, came from government sales. But that source is almost gone: governments held only 87 million ounces by the end of 2005.

Silver mining is expected to fall even further as base metal mining slows significantly. 70% of silver mined is a byproduct of base mining.

pilotmaf
3rd May 2009, 16:41
But isn't silver mainly an industrial metal? With industry slowing down that will also slow the demand for silver. Sounds like a wash to me.

What is Truth?
3rd May 2009, 18:23
But isn't silver mainly an industrial metal? With industry slowing down that will also slow the demand for silver. Sounds like a wash to me.

Hey! If you don't like silver what are you doing here asking anti-silver questions? So what are you a goverment shill? Sorry, I just thought I would beat someone else. ;)

What is Truth?
3rd May 2009, 18:48
I would like to tell you there is a huge shortage and you should buy mine, but instead you might want to read this.. http://freethemarketman.wordpress.com/2008/03/21/silver-shortage-gets-worse-price-drops-again/

I kid you not. It is titled "Silver shortage gets worse - price drops again." Now that it is over a year old it is really a hoot to read.

Ardent Listener
3rd May 2009, 19:24
What is unique to silver is that there has been a deficit comsumption pattern for more than 60 years. Where did all the silver come from at such low prices to satisfy the production shortfall for all those years? In brief, it came from U.S. goverment holdings. Up to 10 billion ounces or 100-150 million ounces per year above and beyond what was minded and recycled . It was dumped cheap but the goverment dumping and hoard are gone. Silver won't be coming from the U.S. government again.

U.S. geological survey data indicates that below ground silver, yet to be mined, is less in terms of years of supply than any other industrial or precious metal .

Read Silver for the New Era by Theodor Butler.

Maple Silver Syrup
3rd May 2009, 21:08
thanks guys my confidence was shakey but it's back on track

aequitas
3rd May 2009, 22:59
Investment demand has largely shored up the industrial demand shortfall. However annual mine production is shrinking in response as well.

Remember when silver prices go down it just means buy!

duneyman
4th May 2009, 08:51
I've been hearing that there is an abundance of silver in the world. An expected shortage of silver was one of the reasons why I was attracted to silver. Does anyone have any recent research which still confirms a pending silver shortage?


There used to be a large silver defict every year but it's over now. All the news about silver shortages seems to be a big scam. Unless we get major inflation silver doesn't look to be that good of an investment.

maplesilverbug
4th May 2009, 09:02
I've been hearing that there is an abundance of silver in the world. An expected shortage of silver was one of the reasons why I was attracted to silver. Does anyone have any recent research which still confirms a pending silver shortage?

As David Morgan states (http://news.silverseek.com/SilverInvestor/1241156145.php):
"...the silver market is no longer in a deficit situation, according to the best studies on the silver market. Also, more silver is being mined at this time than probably at any time previously. I certainly do not want to misstate the facts."

During the last year, sellers of silver were stating that there was indeed a shortage of silver; that, however was only half the truth. There was NO shortage of silver, only shortages on certain TYPES of silver (eg. ASE, Maples). A lot of people got sucked into that hype, buying on perceived scarcity (short term) rather than proven preservation (long term).

But whatever, at least you have silver now!

Gen Ripper
4th May 2009, 09:26
I don't think there is a shortage, every time I go to my local dealer he has buckets of the stuff. Literally buckets.

I have only been following silver since late 2008, and here is my thought: If manufacturing is the major consumer, and manufacturing is supposedly WAY down, how come the price of silver hasn't plummeted? Some would argue it has, it certainly fell hard from its high in the mid 20s. Point being, it looks like silver has a lot of support at 12-14 during this period of reduced manufacturing and has reasonable upside when the economy come back.

Lotsa potential to go even lower though, Chrysler's sales were down 48% last qtr, worst of the bunch but indicative of the manufacturing. And only now does it looks like they are slowing/halting production. Decrease in demand will lag the pitiful sales, which means it go lower...

MiloMorai
4th May 2009, 20:10
Local Coin Shop Where I Get My S/E Ran Out Of All The Pre 2009 S/E
Except For A Few He Claims He's Saving For People Want them for
Birthday's

Wants $20 apiece for 2009's
has No Rounds Or Bars

Other Than That Just nuministic Junk
Small Town Of 50,000

pilotmaf
4th May 2009, 20:34
I am watching someone on ebay selling from a monster box of ASE the past several days. For 4 of them most of the auctions are going for $17-$19 each with free shipping.

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/ has them for about $16.5 with shipping on at least 10 coins the last time I checked.

Plus several other online dealers have them.

Don't see the shortage yet

What is Truth?
4th May 2009, 20:45
I've been hearing that there is an abundance of silver in the world. An expected shortage of silver was one of the reasons why I was attracted to silver. Does anyone have any recent research which still confirms a pending silver shortage?

I don't think Maple Silver was talking about a shortage of small bars, ASEs or rounds of silver but rather a shortage of the metal in general.

We are currently in a huge recession. One might expect that in any recession the demand for silver would fall. Does that mean that demand will never pick up again? Get real, at the very least silver is a limited commodity. So you don't have to either worship or hate silver. Somewhere inbetween is reality.

other1z
4th May 2009, 20:53
It certainly is a valid question, but the "shortage" that occurred last year was the direct result of the largest influx of new silver buyers, in the modern age. I cannot find the article that supports that statement, but I believe it. In February/March of last year, you could not find silver in any LCS. There were polls and questions every day, here, asking if anyone had found silver. Apmex would get in 21,000 ASE's and they'd be gone in two hours. There was literally a FRENZY of silver purchasing. I made 6 large purchases from NWTW last year, and included in one of my shipments (which I thought was large) was a receipt for another customer...mistakenly placed in my shipment. Oh yeh...that receipt was for 30,000 ounces.

So, there was indeed a shortage last year, as the market could not keep up with the new saturation of buyers. BUT...that lull lasted a very short time, in the scheme of things, and there has been plenty of it to be had at nearly every website, and every LCS I've been to in the last 10 months. That does not mean there isn't a supply issue waiting for us, but the calming of the frenzied waters has helped producers get the wounded out of the water and start paddling again.

For you all that have only been in this for a year or two, this is somewhat cyclic, as I meandered upon in a different thread. Over the last 10 years, there have been a couple of very distinct economic times when a new crop of silver buyers enters, and supply dries up. I will also tell you that some producers are still getting their sea-legs with regards to internet sales. It wasn't too long ago that silver sales on the internet was non-existent. This newest frenzy was only the second or third major influx since internet purchasing went ballistic. My personal opinion is that producers were still not exactly aware of what they'd be hit with, since the ordering medium has expanded to the entire (online) free world.

C'est la vie. Just keep buying...period.

What is Truth?
4th May 2009, 21:01
There was a small bar shortage last year. If you had the money you could buy a 1,000 ounce bar any time you wanted. So there wasn't a true silver shortage there was a money shortage of those who could buy 1,000 oz. bars.

Ivan Rybkin
6th May 2009, 04:23
There was a small bar shortage last year. If you had the money you could buy a 1,000 ounce bar any time you wanted. So there wasn't a true silver shortage there was a money shortage of those who could buy 1,000 oz. bars.



The Mines produce 600.000.000 ounces of silver a year.

silverheartbone
6th May 2009, 08:55
The Mines produce 600.000.000 ounces of silver a year.

And Bill Gates could buy them all with his interest income alone.