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View Full Version : Reaction to the CPM Silver surplus announcement?



Paul
30th April 2009, 14:07
I was wondering what some of the clever Silver-heads on here thought about this announcement from the CPM, 'In their annual yearbook, New York precious metals consulting firm CPM Group forecasts that the net surplus in silver is expected to rise to 182.1 million ounces this year, which will approach the record 222.2 million ounces of silver purchased in 1980'? (this pulled from one of the daily SilverSeek threads).

It seems to me that industry isn't currently soaking up this surplus and that the current bouyancy is driven by investors.

I don't know whether anyone knew if this was a brief period of over-supply until any possible side effects of new mining slowdown begins to show, or whether it has longer term implications?

Sorry if this has already been covered, I've scoured through and couldn't find a related thread.

pmstacker
30th April 2009, 14:48
New York Precious Metals Consulting? Sounds to me like its a bunch of fat cats on wallstreet who wish to supress the price of silver to help their own shorts, or i could be crazy altogether, either or. I have a hard time trusting one source, i'd rather hear it from multiple sources before i put any faith in it. Who knows there could be a surplus of silver, i don't have any real data that says otherwise, however i find it hard to believe considering the fact mining is slowing and countries like china are buying it up by the boatload. They let the cat out of the bag about gold, but you have to stop and wonder if the same is true with silver. Maybe they have 10x as much silver as gold in their stockpile, but we dont know it. Then once we do find out it may be too late, which would push the prices up until they wish to move from metals into other forms of investments. I just find it funny a country like china can see the value of precious metal, yet most of america does not :/

JCM6395
30th April 2009, 15:55
I just find it funny a country like china can see the value of precious metal, yet most of america does not :/

China is a hungry growing economic power, while we are spoiled and living off our reputation to the world. Only a matter of time.....especially the way Obama is printing the cash....before we have a very hard fall.

What is Truth?
30th April 2009, 19:57
I was wondering what some of the clever Silver-heads on here thought about this announcement from the CPM, 'In their annual yearbook, New York precious metals consulting firm CPM Group forecasts that the net surplus in silver is expected to rise to 182.1 million ounces this year, which will approach the record 222.2 million ounces of silver purchased in 1980'? (this pulled from one of the daily SilverSeek threads).

It seems to me that industry isn't currently soaking up this surplus and that the current bouyancy is driven by investors.

I don't know whether anyone knew if this was a brief period of over-supply until any possible side effects of new mining slowdown begins to show, or whether it has longer term implications?

Sorry if this has already been covered, I've scoured through and couldn't find a related thread.


All we need is 182.1 million new investors to buy just one ounce each and the surplus will be gone. Can't they start selling silver on Amway?

sliver
30th April 2009, 23:46
When was that written? Sounds like something from around 1995

?Sliver

Gold Rules
1st May 2009, 00:47
All we need is 182.1 million new investors to buy just one ounce each and the surplus will be gone. Can't they start selling silver on Amway?

OoooooooooooR

9 million to buy 20 oz's each........

Paul
1st May 2009, 03:06
This is the link to the original article (I had said originally that it was from SilverSeek, though actually it's from the silver section of Kitco).

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page31?oid=82562&sn=Detail

David Morgan also touches upon the surplus in his latest post.

duneyman
1st May 2009, 11:49
I was wondering what some of the clever Silver-heads on here thought about this announcement from the CPM, 'In their annual yearbook, New York precious metals consulting firm CPM Group forecasts that the net surplus in silver is expected to rise to 182.1 million ounces this year, which will approach the record 222.2 million ounces of silver purchased in 1980'? (this pulled from one of the daily SilverSeek threads).

It seems to me that industry isn't currently soaking up this surplus and that the current bouyancy is driven by investors.

I don't know whether anyone knew if this was a brief period of over-supply until any possible side effects of new mining slowdown begins to show, or whether it has longer term implications?

Sorry if this has already been covered, I've scoured through and couldn't find a related thread.


The main reason I got into silver seven plus years ago was the deficit. And now it's gone - even David Morgan admitted we have a surplus in an article posted today on silverseek.

Golden
1st May 2009, 13:42
They can dump all that surplus on my back yard anytime.

Paul
1st May 2009, 13:51
Yes interesting times in Silver. I do find it encouraging that more people now view silver as an investment (or so I have read in various columns). I think if industry does pick up (which could be a couple of years away) then from what I've heard silver being at $10 or $50 would not adversely affect them. I say this having studied David Morgan's writings (whom I trust). He's of the opinion that such a small amount of silver is used in say a fridge-freezer that the cost of silver has little bearing on the overall cost of the product (i.e. I guess if silver rose drastically then the manufacturer may have to increase the cost of the end product by 50 cents).