Expectations of Silver

[other1z]

Here's a topic that has been discussed ad nauseum in many contexts, but one that has been "interrupted", per se, before letting the breadth of opinion stretch its wings.

WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION OF SILVER?

There are many ways to answer this, and they will certainly be based on individual ideologies. Variables, of course, make any expectation exciting. Are you looking for a specific dollar-per-ounce value? Are you looking for a strict preservation of wealth against the uncertainties of the U.S. dollar? Are you looking for quick appreciation?

At the outset, this could appear to be a basic question, but I've found that debating and exploring the expectation of others often has affects on our own opinions, which can lead to different buying strategies and/or purchasing practices. Admittedly, this is a topic largely geared toward physical silver, but can also apply to long-term players in the paper market.

I'll start....

For me, I have ZERO expectation, other than I "assume" silver is a way to invest my FRN's in a medium that has less volatility than paper money, AND, a way to pass that on to my children (or grandchildren) when I start pushin' up the daisies. While I do watch the market price of silver, I NEVER get involved in discussions about how exciting it is to see silver rise to $15, or move past a specific resistance mark. I have gained a more fervent respect for folks that believe in this, but it is less cerebral for me:

"Buy it, drool on it, lock it away to collect dust"

Admittedly, I do a lot of "flipping", and have made amazing personal gains with this practice, so I would be lying if I said I locked it away and forgot about it, or never looked at the spot price. I have a respectable base, that allows me to sell when the going is good, and put profits on sales back to more metal. I can regularly sell a 100oz. brick, and buy 120 oz. Ebay is great place for that, even with fees included.

So...to sum up, my expectation is nil. Sit there, collect dust, let me buy more, and don't go below my dollar average ( which is quite a bit less than 2 digits).

How 'bout you?

[other1z]

To clarify...my main objective is to pass all my T-bills (which I bought from all the money I made on selling my silver in order to support my government) on to my children. I don't expect that they will get much in the line of $$ from me, so I figure I'd leave them with a room full of goodies that nobody knows about. It will not only cut down on inheritance tax, but it will make for a HELL OF A GOOD story in two or three generations down the road of my kin.

[fullsafe]

Personally, my expectations of silver are that it will make me fabulously wealthy , beyond anything even winning the powerball Lottery would deliver.I also expect those gains to go totally unnoticed by our illustrious taxing agencies and that everyone in this forum will agree with me! I also expect to be disappointed.

[LoboNoches]

Expectations are resentments in the making therefore I will say that it's a beautiful metal ,a safe haven for myself and my son ,and I will flow with it.Maybe it will make me rich maybe my son will be able to swim in ti like Scrooge McDuck one day.Til then I will reasonably expect it to stay solid not melt on me and grow til the day comes.

[Ancona]

Treasuries have been a solid performer since their inception. My fear is that they will become worth much less than the original capital investment as a result of inflation. It is exactly this reason that I have such a large portion of my wealth in silver/gold. They have proven themselves to be inflation proof.

[hiyosilver]

Treasuries have been a solid performer since their inception. My fear is that they will become worth much less than the original capital investment as a result of inflation. It is exactly this reason that I have such a large portion of my wealth in silver/gold. They have proven themselves to be inflation proof.


Some time ago I made an appointment with a CPA to discuss the legalities of some investment strategies. They usually have more knowledge about those things than actually most attorneys do...Anyway, after a time we "somehow" got off on the subject of your post, with which I agree. In just a short time the lady was red in the face and screaming at me! I gently told her, "Lady, you're wasting my time." and got up headed for the door. As I rounded the corner, I couldn't help but bust out laughing at the looks on her assistant and the receptionist's faces and I left the office cracking up. I have a feeling alot of so called "knowledgeable" people are going to be in for a rude awakening.....

[valerb@bellsouth.net]

Like so many today, I bought Silver in the beginning to protect myself in case of an emergency like Y2K.

After learning more about Silver, I started to add to my collection as it became more of a protection of wealth than just for emergencies.

Reading postings from the likes of Ted Butler, convinced me that Silver was indeed an excellent long term investment. All of my investment money was then focused on Silver only. Some say that is a tragic mistake, investing in a single commodity or stock.

I just wanted to make sure I entered my retirement years with something substantial to fall back on and not end up with a pocket full of worthless stock.

Like everyone, I like the sound of $50, $100 and even $200 Silver, but as long as I can sell it for $6 in an emergency, I'm still ahead of the game.

Now that I've reached my retirement years, I hope that long term investment will speed up a little. I'd really like to take some healthy profits and fund a travel account while I can still walk without to use of aides.

As far as when I would sell and at what price, I haven't a clue. $100 Silver doesn't mean much if you can buy an ounce of Silver for 10 EUROS or $14 Canadian.

[other1z]

Expectations are resentments in the making therefore I will say that it's a beautiful metal ,a safe haven for myself and my son ,and I will flow with it.Maybe it will make me rich maybe my son will be able to swim in ti like Scrooge McDuck one day.Til then I will reasonably expect it to stay solid not melt on me and grow til the day comes.

Some nice comments across the board, and as I noted, while the topic is basic to us all, it is a nice way to possibly kick off some intelligent discussion on a broader level.

Noches, I agree with your statement, and its simplicity is part of what makes it resonate so truly. My personal expectation, as I mentioned, is NO expectation.


For me, I have ZERO expectation, other than I "assume" silver is a way to invest my FRN's in a medium that has less volatility than paper money, AND, a way to pass that on to my children (or grandchildren) when I start pushin' up the daisies.


It sho iz purty though. I loves me a nice brick o' white gold.

[Ancona]

There should be no expectation whatsoever when speaking of precious metals other than they will preserve the value of your wealth. Some believe that they will become "rich" when PM's explode during massive inflation, but I would remind those folks that their silver and gold will merely maintain equilibrium with fiat, and will purchase in 10 years what they will purchase today.

For instance, if it takes one thousand ounces of silver to buy a widget maker today, then five years from now, when the dollar has dropped to 50, it will still buy the same widget maker, but it will require significantly more debased fiat to buy the same machine.

I am in silver to protect my wealth. Nothing more and nothing less. It can be said the possibility exists for silver to go significantly higher than it's equilibrium value relative to fiat, and I would agree that this is a distinct possibility. In this event, your silver will have "appreciated in value" to the extent of the overshoot, and someone who is paying attention will be able to capitalize on the move.

[Katwoman]

Wealth preservation........there is no better hedge against fiat currency induced inflation and global resource depletion due to over population than PMs. My expectations that PMs will soon move are all unfortunately based on the expectation that things will get worse with time. I wish this were not so but I cannot see anything on the horizon to suggest otherwise. I am not planning to get rich just to maintain my wealth relative to those who have not planned. If per chance the failure of others to have planned makes me richer by comparison then so be it.

[Ancona]

Wealth preservation........there is no better hedge against fiat currency induced inflation and global resource depletion due to over population than PMs. My expectations that PMs will soon move are all unfortunately based on the expectation that things will get worse with time. I wish this were not so but I cannot see anything on the horizon to suggest otherwise. I am not planning to get rich just to maintain my wealth relative to those who have not planned. If per chance the failure of others to have planned makes me richer by comparison then so be it.

Agreed Kat.

[pmstacker]

Its just nice to sleep at night knowing i won't be out in the cold if something crazy were to happen. I look at it more of an insurance policy right now with a potential upside unlike other forms of insurance.

[akak]

Some time ago I made an appointment with a CPA to discuss the legalities of some investment strategies. They usually have more knowledge about those things than actually most attorneys do...Anyway, after a time we "somehow" got off on the subject of your post, with which I agree. In just a short time the lady was red in the face and screaming at me! I gently told her, "Lady, you're wasting my time." and got up headed for the door. As I rounded the corner, I couldn't help but bust out laughing at the looks on her assistant and the receptionist's faces and I left the office cracking up. I have a feeling alot of so called "knowledgeable" people are going to be in for a rude awakening.....


How funny, and how sad. What I find interesting is how many otherwise "intelligent" people can remain blind to everything (bad) that is going on around them, and to this country. But it was just the same during the fall of Rome, and Constantinople, and many other prior powers ---- most remain in denial until it is far too late to do anything about it.

[Katwoman]

If most accountants and financial advisers were really that good at what they do for a living they would take their own advise and soon not be doing it any more because they would be filthy rich. That said, I have no use for any of these people.

[Steadfast]

Here's a topic that has been discussed ad nauseum in many contexts, but one that has been "interrupted", per se, before letting the breadth of opinion stretch its wings.

WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION OF SILVER??

what do I expect?

That's simple:
I expect silver to Shoot through the roof, so much so that I have put MUCH of my money where my expectations are.

This is not a "greed thing", or a "Get Rich" scheme. It is simply me responding to an inevitability.

Take into account some of these factors/events:
The eroding silver reserve due to the electronics boom.
The impending Obama spending inflation that will fall on us all.
The inevitable deficit “Bail Out” Taxes we will soon face.
The modern American socialism policies that currently erode our freedoms.
The huge naked short selling of empty paper silver ETF’s.
The retarded obvious precious metals manipulation going on to hide the erosion of the USdollar.
The fact that anyone at any time could “get smart” and start a “call panic” demanding physical silver/ Gold for their paper PM investments.
The evidence that China maybe on a gold hording move to build a “Gold Standard Yen” to help kill off the USdollar.
The ever growing unemployment figures, auto plant and auto parts plants layoffs, horrid retail sales numbers.
The "apology tour" of Obama, proclaiming to the terrorists of the world that we are “weak” and soon will be wide open to more terrorist attacks.
The fact that most corporate and bank books have been so “cooked” for so long that no one could untangle them and report the TRUTH with out causing a panic.
The possibility of a random yet severe natural disaster at any point in our future.
The insurance industry being very close to an implosion.
The frailty of the US stock market which is one stumble and trip away from falling from a recession into a full blown modern depression with each mounting bad earnings report.
And finally, (since I am a biased Minister)
The fact that every single event in our daily world news, when compared with scripture, screams the scary possibility that we are on the eve of the Biblical “End of Days”, with all that, THAT suggests.

Now,
When we look at ALL the events/factors, knowing that one by one, each alone, could happen, and would unleash Gold and silver into the stratosphere! And, when we realize how easily several of these events could happen like a falling dominos! And that just one of these events happening, could triggering an event cascade like a tsunami, then the act of buying “as much silver as possible NOW” is a "NO Brainer"...

Thus, even if I seem a bit paranoid by now, even those of the most calm of demeanor must admit, the explosion of PMs is not an "if thing” but a "when thing”!

And it is becomming more obvious everyday, that Silver/Gold’s "when thing” is becoming more of an exponentially “imminent when” then and “distant when”.

Stick that in your Faith Garden and Grow it... ha ha...

But hey, even if all these events evaporate like morning mist, Silver is still a great way to put your money into "deep savings"...
Plus, it Sure is purdy to look at... :rolleyes:

[SilverJunkie]

WHAT IS YOUR EXPECTATION OF SILVER?


Like Katwoman, wealth preservation... I don't care what it's "return" is, I just want something that I can turn to if inflation or a currency devaluation comes into play. On a secondary note, I wouldn't touch Treasury Bills, Notes or Bonds with a 100 ft pole. You're giving your money to the government, a government that is actively engaging in quantitative easing, with a promise from them to pay you back with devalued dollars. In other words, they're ripping you off. That is in direct contradiction to the rationale of investing in Silver or Gold. Or did I misunderstand you?

[maplesilverbug]

Like Katwoman, wealth preservation...something that I can turn to if inflation or a currency devaluation comes into play.

Ditto.
But don't worry about inflation or currency devaluation being an "IF" -- it happens automatically year in and year out -- and silver always comes out on top of cash.

I have allocated less than 10% of my silver holdings for trading. So my only expectation is that silver behaves historically "normal" -- up in the spring and fall, down in the summer -- allowing me two profit-taking opportunities as well as opportunity to restock during the dips.

[DannyBoy]

Many people have mentioned "Wealth Preservation" as their reason for investing in Ag. However, I think of silver as "Mental Health Preservation".

When I came to the realization that everyone has been bullsh*tting me... and by everyone I mean parents, teachers, tv, radio, clergy, politicians... I looked for the form of money that was least susceptible to the bs.

Once you call into question the validity of the numbers printed out on your monthly statements, then it's all about the shiny allure of the real thing.

[SeekrBrnEvryMin]

For me, it's a process of elimination, mostly, of where else do you put your wealth?

I would like gold better than silver, but silver has potential upsides that we all know about. I'd like to buy gold, but only when I think I have too much silver. Like THAT day will come...

I have some residential real estate. I could argue that rental property is a better investment than PMs, but in the long haul, I suspect the residual value of the property would be same as silver. (Buildings depreciate, land appreciates. Silver appreciates.) Meanwhile, I bank long-term cash in silver.

Stocks? I have some venture capital out there, but they're long shots. Real estate has been better than stocks for investment, IMO.

Bonds? Isn't there a T-bill bubble? Interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Corporate bonds? Maybe, but am I keeping up with inflation comfortably considering taxes and inherent risk? No, thanks, not now, rather have Engelhard and JM Lego blocks.

My big concern is, "What's the best use of my money?"

I have a mortgage. Should I cash in my silver to pay it down? No, tax considerations. Long-term cash is in silver. Is this the best use of my money?

What do you think?

I have a car loan. It's not deductible, but the finance rate is close to the REAL destruction rate of the dollar, and it's a depreciating asset. Should I cash out silver to pay it off?

Hmm.

You see where I'm going with this. Thoughts?

[SeekrBrnEvryMin]

Many people have mentioned "Wealth Preservation" as their reason for investing in Ag. However, I think of silver as "Mental Health Preservation".

When I came to the realization that everyone has been bullsh*tting me... and by everyone I mean parents, teachers, tv, radio, clergy, politicians... I looked for the form of money that was least susceptible to the bs.

Once you call into question the validity of the numbers printed out on your monthly statements, then it's all about the shiny allure of the real thing.

I'm intensely curious as to what BS you discovered, and what circumstances led you to conclude that silver was a good buy?

[silverbuyer]

You don't cancel your health policy just because you're feeling well.

It's Ok if the price of silver goes down or up. Just because we hear a lot of semi-good P.R. about the economy and the Wall Street Touts are back to work doesn't make it so. These are the same guys that got it completelty and absolutely wrong about 100% of the time for the last two years. They told us oil would be $200 a barrel then a few weeks later it would be $30 a barrell throughout 2009. For me, they're now on the same level as TV Weather forecasts telling me what next week will look like.