Is breakout really upon us?

[Katwoman]

The move up in PMs this week is stunning to say the least. Tomorrow should be interesting and important day. IMHO if the trend continues I think we could $14 by Memorial day.

I would love to a hear a well thought out argument to contrary based on TA.

[other1z]

The move up in PMs this week is stunning to say the least. Tomorrow should be interesting and important day. IMHO if the trend continues I think we could $14 by Memorial day.

I would love to a hear a well thought out argument to contrary based on TA.

I think the presupposition to say "we could see $14 by Memorial Day" [which I assume is what you meant] is benign. It's like saying "we could have sunshine tomorrow" in the middle of spring..."or maybe not". Today's movement, IMHO, was not-unlike the decline a week ago, when everyone was saying "holy cow...the bulls are in stocks". $14 is not much of a swing, and in terms of fundamentals, it simply is not much in the scheme of 6-12 months. I have long-said that none of this means ANYTHING, as the movements in the increase and decrease are nothing more than the "normal" pullbacks and declines in the longer-term valuation of silver. TA, resistance, cup & handle...whatever you wish to call it...it's just a pointal move that may or may not happen.

Today's dollar decline is one of the biggest day's-decline in weeks. Calling a move in silver, at this point, is tant-amount to the rubbish that is seen in most of the news agencies daily crap-calls for the Dow:

~ "The bulls are out!"
~ "It's a bear market"
~ "The bulls are out!"
~ "It's a bear market"
~ "The bulls are out!"

It's just another cycle. I hate to point out educational achievements (in light of 'other members' doing so with such irregard of others), but my Master's Degree in Mathematics allows me to respect TA and mathematical fundamentals...enough to say, that any minimal movement (plus or minus a couple bucks) just don't mean squat.

Now...for the sake of argument, $14 is a nice thought, and it is certainly one of the first steps on the way to anywhere north of there, but $14 doesn't mean a thing unless it surpasses that and NEVER RETURNS. Personally, $14 is a DREAM! That just-about doubles my dollar-averaging, but just as we might presuppose (or rather, hypothesize) to call $14, it's not about the mark, it's about the sustainability.

It could hit $14. It could hit $20 (like last year). Talk to me when it sustains the mark...otherwise, it's just a candle in the wind [singing Elton John].

[Katwoman]

Good argument as usual. I agree with you about sustainability and as we have recently seen silver has considerable support at $12. So I also agree this move may or may not be the breakout I am hoping for since it is still within the trading range.

If it does not breakout soon I expect it to stay in the 12s throughout the summer given the current economic environment. I know we disagree on this point and that you think history will prove me wrong but since PMs are one of the safer places to park your money right now this is where I think the money will stay this summer given the risks associated with other investment vehicles.

Obviously silver like all PMs has enjoyed a good run up in the past several years and much of this can be attributed to investments from those who saw this financial train wreck coming. But we have also experienced an important substantial pull back and throughout this period the fundamentals have improved or stayed the same so we know the central driver remains bullish which is required for the cup and handle prediction to be accurate. If this pull back had not already happened I would be much more pessimistic about PM futures but since it has and more importantly has since formed a pattern consistent with its bullish fundamentals then based on the TA I expect it can move higher. The key know is "news" any bullish news right now could spawn the breakout.

If this does not happen then I would agree that it will be a slow steady ride up from here but a ride up just the same.

In reality if I am right the USD will be in serious trouble whereas if you are right the PTB will have found a way to restore confidence in it.

I hope I am right from a TA perspective and you know I would love to see the US return to sound money. But sadly we both realize that if this analysis is correct it will signal some really bad news for the dollar and our economy.

BTW for the purposes of full disclosure I am not a mathematician like you (although I did get a B+ in calculus 1 and have had several courses in statisics) but just a lowly neuroscientist who likes to dabble in the TA for a hobby.

[skijake]

I have no technical background or analysis to offer.
I do think it's important to have a "base" from where to launch any assault on higher prices or hide when the prices break down.
I continue to believe that these prices offer many opportunities.
A place to get out for those that have purchased at $5 and $7.
A place for newcomers to purchase at still reasonable prices.
A place for many to fret about the coming price drops and increases.
All of which will surely happen. Go Silver!;)

[akak]

If nothing else, the fact that the price of gold is right around where it was a year ago now, and silver maybe 20% less, should give the lie to those who would try to claim that the prices of gold and silver have been going "hyperbolic" and are in some kind of "bubble". I am reading more and more Keynesian shills who are trying to make such claims --- but like all Keynesian bunk, it is patently absurd.

[hiyosilver]

Due to all the shenanigans the "O" and friends are pulling, I don't think anyone can predict where PM is going short term. But, even with all the disagreements and peeves we bear here, I think it's safe to say that the majority agrees where it's going long term. To the moon....(anybody else here remember Ralph Cramden?.....)



just a lowly neuroscientist

Does that mean you're neurotic?.....just joking, don't let them get in a bunch now.............on a serious note, do you have the same knowledge or surpass that of a neurologist? I have some personal questions pertaining to that subject.

[Katwoman]

on a serious note, do you have the same knowledge or surpass that of a neurologist? I have some personal questions pertaining to that subject.

Yes. I was educated in and now teach at a medical school and I am admitted under Daubert as an expert in clinical neurology as well as neuroscience so yes it is fair to say my knowledge surpasses that of the average clinical neurologist. If you PM me I will be happy to answer your questions.

[akak]

BTW for the purposes of full disclosure I am not a mathematician like you but just a lowly neuroscientist


You mean all this time you, with all your skills and knowledge of the brain, did nothing here to help poor Duneyman? For Shame!

Seriously, though, that is pretty impressive! It would be fascinating to know the professions and backgrounds of all of us on this forum --- not that I am suggesting that we all share our personal details in public here.

[skijake]

You mean all this time you, with all your skills and knowledge of the brain, did nothing here to help poor Duneyman? For Shame!

Seriously, though, that is pretty impressive! It would be fascinating to know the professions and backgrounds of all of us on this forum --- not that I am suggesting that we all share our personal details in public here.

Interesting concept.
I feel that what a person does for a living offers a lot of insight into how they think about a number of things. A realtor is going to look at things differently when compared to a carpenter. Not that there can't be agreement on many things but just the nature of what you do 8-12 hours a day will shade your judgements.
Also, who signs your paycheck. If you work for a Fortune 500 company or have a government job can you really understand what it's like to sign your own paycheck?
Lots of influences in daily life. Kids,Relationships,Financial,Ethics and a hundred other things all help shape a persons take on things.

[Ancona]

Engineer. We perform environmental remediation at contaminated sites around the world, primarily in the aerospace and defense industries.

Paycheck? As Vice President of our firm, I sign my own.

[Katwoman]

Yes, Virginia the breakout is finally here!!

[Steadfast]

I am with Kat...

Simply because, I like it when she says things like that...


BTW: My job is in State Government Finance...

[SilverJim]

I, for one, am horrified at this price action since yesterday morning. A freaking dollar increase! CRAP! For weeks I have been planning a major purchase of silver which cannot happen until next Monday. :mad:

[theo68]

I read that PMs have increased in advance of the stress test announcements, which sounds plausible. Although silver has gone up about 10% in the last week, I don't see it breaking its upside resistance level at around $14 an ounce just yet. The stress test results will probably be a non-event with no great surprises. Actually, the good news in my opinion is that a few weeks ago silver stayed above its $12 per ounce support level.

I tend to think that when silver does breaks out it will be unmistakable. You'll see daily silver moves in dollars not in cents and silver will fly passed the key resistance levels of $14 and $17 an ounce with barely a pause. However, I think we have at least six months before anything like that happens because there are still a lot of deflationary pressures out there (more rounds of layoffs and mortgage defaults).

[fullsafe]

I tend to agree with '68' here. Deflationary pressure is still to strong for a meaningful move up in silver and I think if we even crowd 15 it will be a victory. The dollar is key here , and the reception of an absurd amount of U.S. debt this week was too strong to signify much weakness in the dollar.

We know it's a charade but that doesn't change the reality. If there's a positive it's the relative etregth of silver versus the dollar with their inverse relationship. Silver should be lower on a year over year basis as the dollar has gained more than siver has lost. I know it's all relative and contrived , which is why I carry little faith in TA when the playing field is constantly being tilted to the home teams advantage.

[Irons]

I gave up trying to make any logic of these PM markets. Silver should have gone back up to around $20 when gold cracked $1000 the last time, but for whatever reason it diden't.
Silver may go back up to $20 now while gold hangs around $900 like its been doing, that would be a fun one to explain!
I try to pull the hair out of my head on both sides and the back so it remains somewhat even.:cool:

[Trvlr45]

My humble opinion is we have a long time to go before we will see the kind of blast-off for silver we all want to see. I'm sure the Fed still has a lot of tricks up it's sleeve to maintain the slow boil. Be happy it's still cheap and hope the blast off happens in your lifetime when your still young enough to appreciate it.

As for what i do for a living? I'm, a truck driver. Formally over-the-road. Quit that 3 months ago. Going to work again soon. Watching the country deteriorate from coast to coast over the last 10 years was what brought me to the silver market.

[Trvlr45]

I gave up trying to make any logic of these PM markets. Silver should have gone back up to around $20 when gold cracked $1000 the last time, but for whatever reason it diden't.
Silver may go back up to $20 now while gold hangs around $900 like its been doing, that would be a fun one to explain!
I try to pull the hair out of my head on both sides and the back so it remains somewhat even.:cool:

LOL! There is no logic. That's why I think it's all maipulated. All we can do is watch and hoard.

[Steadfast]

Wooo hooo
We just broke 14/oz.!!!

[maplesilverbug]

Wooo hooo
We just broke 14/oz.!!!

We just broke 14/oz. again -- on the downside...

It doesn't really mean anything.
Hell, Citibank just broke 4/shr! That's up 300% this year!
People still value and cherish their lies and deception and fakery.

As other posters have pointed out, "spot is not" (I think that's the quote?), and sustainability. Focus on the spot and you will go bonkers, cheering when it rises 2%, wondering what happened when it drops 3% two days later...

I think a key word here is "Patience". It is one of the virtues, is it not? Let PM's do their thing. Your simple job is to buy the dips.

[Steadfast]

We just broke 14/oz. again -- on the downside...

It doesn't really mean anything.
Hell, Citibank just broke 4/shr! That's up 300% this year!
People still value and cherish their lies and deception and fakery.

As other posters have pointed out, "spot is not" (I think that's the quote?), and sustainability. Focus on the spot and you will go bonkers, cheering when it rises 2%, wondering what happened when it drops 3% two days later...

I think a key word here is "Patience". It is one of the virtues, is it not? Let PM's do their thing. Your simple job is to buy the dips.

Oh I am in for the long ride...
I am just enjoying the rollercoster bumps along the way!

BTW: the gold /silver spread ratio is now at 65 to 1... it was at 72 to 1...
and that is how it should really be measured.

[maplesilverbug]

It would be fascinating to know the professions and backgrounds of all of us on this forum --- not that I am suggesting that we all share our personal details in public here.

I feel that what a person does for a living offers a lot of insight into how they think about a number of things....the nature of what you do 8-12 hours a day will shade your judgements. If you work for a Fortune 500 company or have a government job can you really understand what it's like to sign your own paycheck? Lots of influences in daily life. Kids,Relationships,Financial,Ethics and a hundred other things all help shape a persons take on things.

Okay, I'll bite. Not that it matters if we "get personal" (my background check isn't going to make you an ounce richer!)...but for weekend entertainment purposes...

I am a cook. There, I said it. No engineer or neurosurgeon, but a cook. Both by choice and not by choice. That's the "profession" part, now I'll explain the "background" part (no sniggering!).

Became cook because, as an young man, I lacked direction and focus -- both from myself and from authority figures (ie. parents). So I took the first thing that came along (the 'not by choice' part).

Now for the unbelievable boasting part...I've been tested (twice) as having a very high IQ; no numbers, but it is high (as I'm sure a lot of other posters here also have). Before you sigh and say, "Yeah, yeah!", IQ tests contain different sections. Like both Einstein and Picaso were geniuses, but neither could do what the other did. My "genius" lies in spatial recognition -- I see things (but not dead people, sorry). I learn and comprehend very fast in areas with...measurable physical proportions.

A lot of things came easy to me, which led me to various areas throughout my life. Four months after picking up my first instrument I was admitted to music college to pursue composition (those black dots made perfect sense to me!); a successful (in victory, not money) amateur road cyclist; an artist for a time; worked for an architectural firm for a summer as a draftsman; been a published and award winning writer; I was even the only dude in cooking school to score two perfect 100's (notice that was at the end of the list!).

Then came finance and economics (my mother's influence). Let's just say I took to charts and technical analysis like a duck to a la ronge. I started developing my own successful trading systems and methodologies (the last system I was starting to experiment with was based on a torus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torus) -- I just wanted to see if it would work!). One summer I read Ilya Prigogine's 'The End of Certainty' (http://www.amazon.com/End-Certainty-Ilya-Prigogine/dp/0684837056/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1241787279&sr=1-1). Highly influential for me, and, I kid you not, with unbridled naivety, I tried to "figure out" time. Obviously not that intelligent as I almost lost my mind! But it definitely went hand in hand with market study.

But, I was still a cook. I had to do more, I thought, I had to be on the inside of it all. I went to be a "shadow" with my mom's broker at CIBC Wood Gundy. Bad move and exceptional move all in one. I learned in a few hours that I did NOT want to be a salesman...I mean lackey...I mean stock broker. That was a real eye opener.

So I'll go to school and get a finance degree and start my own company, do my own thing, I thought. I wanted to use chaos theory and stuff like that (you know, things my "spatial" brain would love). Again, bad move and exceptional move all in one. Within one year, hell, one class!, I realized finance and economics was pure fakery, especially the higher up you go! As well, I quickly learned the education system is by and large crap. That's why I say go to school when you are young and dumb and can't think for yourself yet! Because once you can... Even a physics teacher told me that school is nothing more than jumping through hoops just to get back into the real world.

This is when I decided to keep being a cook. If everything else was nothing more than smoke and mirrors, at least what I was dealing with in my job was something very real -- and I'm pretty big on truth and realism.

Anyway, (asleep yet?), I ended up meeting with another one of my mom's friends (thanks mom!) who did have his own brokerage/trading business and was quite successful with it. After a two-hour meeting, he and his partner wanted to hire me and take me on as an apprentice-like employee. I was all, "Oh yeah!". Then he had a heart attack (age 42) and died. His wife sold off the client list and moved to Australia, leaving the partner with nothing. And me...still a cook, but not just a cook.

That's ok. I work for the government with a pension and stuff like that. But oh wow! do I ever loath the government now more than ever! If you think you hear horror stories being on the outside, try being on the inside -- even on the bottom rung! It does, however, allow me the time to study and read and educate myself with real and useful material.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it!

[Willie Hunter]

Interesting concept.
I feel that what a person does for a living offers a lot of insight into how they think about a number of things. A realtor is going to look at things differently when compared to a carpenter. Not that there can't be agreement on many things but just the nature of what you do 8-12 hours a day will shade your judgements.
Also, who signs your paycheck. If you work for a Fortune 500 company or have a government job can you really understand what it's like to sign your own paycheck?
Lots of influences in daily life. Kids,Relationships,Financial,Ethics and a hundred other things all help shape a persons take on things.

I've worked for one of the largest gold mining companys in the world for the last 20 years, not sure what where that puts me. I plan to work for 7 more years and I'm out.

[JesterJay]

Broke $14 on the upside!!!
Sustainability is the key. What will it be in two months???
More importantly. Long-term sustainability. Two years? Ten Years?
There is the payoff.
"Other posters..."
You THINK that is the quote?
Have I been away so long?
Spot is NOT!!!
JesterJay


We just broke 14/oz. again -- on the downside...

As other posters have pointed out, "spot is not" (I think that's the quote?),

I think a key word here is "Patience". It is one of the virtues, is it not? Let PM's do their thing. Your simple job is to buy the dips.

[Trvlr45]

As Jester has always said, "Spot IS Not". Any high quality round or SAE is selling for significantly higher than spot and they have been for a long time.

The day of PM's taking off will get here but I think it's quite a ways off. Maybe 5 or 10 years. The economy has quitw a bit further to fall and it won't happen overnight because it is a "controlled crash" IMO.

[Yabezlas]

The time to buy silver is now! If you are in the market to increase your silver holdings, do it now! You are not going to see $10-12 silver again for a long time!

TIP: Usually the best time of day, for lowest price, is early in the day (0600-0800 hrs). Most folks think they will wait and see what it does today, and it usually goes up!

[Katwoman]

We now have of first signs of a breakout and we have also hit the expected resistance at $14 as I predicted in my initial post in this thread. I still think we could move higher but no matter what happens we will most likely stay around $14 through the summer since it looks like this is where the market wants to be. By fall we have a much better idea of where the economy is heading and if the news is bad this will likely scare a lot of people into PMs for the long haul and drive silver past $20. On the contrary if the news is good silver will still move up but will most likely fluctuate between $14 and $17 in accordance with the industrial demand futures.

That said, I am still hoping to see a run up to $17 before we pull back for the summer.

[WallStreetTiger]

everyone expects a lull this summer. as a contrarian, do not be surprised by a run-up this summer. the dollar is anemic and unless it goes higher, then precious metals will continue its uptrend. remember the fundamentals are still the key and they look fantastic.

[Steadfast]

Again, I am with Kat...
I too say SILVER WILL BE AT $20 by summer's end.

Buy now!

[JesterJay]

I hope you are correct.
I have some bills to pay that the silver fairy has to make money magically appear so I may erradicate said bills.
Bills are evil,
JesterJay


Again, I am with Kat...
I too say SILVER WILL BE AT $20 by summer's end.

Buy now!

[Ancona]

The Cartel will not have the power to keep prices down if the dollar loses very much more ground. The obvious and concerted efforts each day in gold and silver [nearly simultaneously] are laughable.

There are a huge number of people waking up to the crisis at hand. People who are losing houses, businesses and beginning to believe that although the government is here.....they're not here to help.

When the one and two ounce buyers step into gold en masse, you will know it. We will hear the talking heads suddenly backpedal through three years of trashing precious metals, awakening to the sudden epiphany of real, sound money.

With the PPT working overtime Friday and today, the Fed has to be running low on black money. Let me see..........Horrendous, record unemployment [un-abating], GM and Chrysler bankruptcies, a crashing dollar and the stock market shoots up?!?!

Anyone besides me see the blatant intervention of Fridy? "Someone" bought around 20% of the entire days trading in something like 10 minutes. Are you telling me that in a time frame of 600 seconds, a "group" of confident investors bought that much stock??

I call bullshit on them....plain and clear. It takes me ten minutes just to open a jar of fucking pickles, so there is no way that someone stepped up to the plate and picked up that volume in 600 seconds.....no way.

[beach miner]

They can't print money fast enough to keep up with the trillions they're spending, it's so much easier to just add more zero's to whatever ledgers need em. Today the stock market needed some zero's, and in short order--they where there. Comex silver futures needs more ounces--- Don't need no stinking ounces, don't need no stinking money----Just add some zero's and everyone is happy. They'll never run out of zero's, they can pull them out of thin air. They got the whole world wanting more of them. There's gonna be a day of reckoning for this insanity, just like the tale of the Emporers Not Wearing Any Clothes. God Bless You. See Ya At The Top

[Irons]

The Cartel will not have the power to keep prices down if the dollar loses very much more ground. The obvious and concerted efforts each day in gold and silver [nearly simultaneously] are laughable.

There are a huge number of people waking up to the crisis at hand. People who are losing houses, businesses and beginning to believe that although the government is here.....they're not here to help.

When the one and two ounce buyers step into gold en masse, you will know it. We will hear the talking heads suddenly backpedal through three years of trashing precious metals, awakening to the sudden epiphany of real, sound money.

With the PPT working overtime Friday and today, the Fed has to be running low on black money. Let me see..........Horrendous, record unemployment [un-abating], GM and Chrysler bankruptcies, a crashing dollar and the stock market shoots up?!?!

Anyone besides me see the blatant intervention of Fridy? "Someone" bought around 20% of the entire days trading in something like 10 minutes. Are you telling me that in a time frame of 600 seconds, a "group" of confident investors bought that much stock??

I call bullshit on them....plain and clear. It takes me ten minutes just to open a jar of fucking pickles, so there is no way that someone stepped up to the plate and picked up that volume in 600 seconds.....no way.

Well said, I totally agree.987

[Katwoman]

When I posted this thread there were still some ney sayers among us who thought $14 was a dream. Well now that we have held $14 for the majority of the summer I think it can be said with a reasonable degree of certainty that we have found serious support at this magic number. Given this fact, the next leg up should take us to $17 where we should again find support in the coming months as congress continues to spend us into despotism.

On June 24, 2006 Chris Laird proposed that the USD would not collapse unless some at that time unforeseen event caused the equivalent of the Great Depression and a flight out instead of into the USD. Well guess what kiddies.....that event has since occurred and we are now on the road to serious financial trouble.

The following is an interesting read.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/0624.html

[mark2112gum]

This 'breakout', is upon us as it was a few months ago, then, 5 months ago. Every week some silver 'well wisher' comes out with a new time line. sheesh!

[valerb@bellsouth.net]

When I posted this thread there were still some ney sayers among us who thought $14 was a dream. Well now that we have held $14 for the majority of the summer I think it can be said with a reasonable degree of certainty that we have found serious support at this magic number. Given this fact, the next leg up should take us to $17 where we should again find support in the coming months as congress continues to spend us into despotism.

On June 24, 2006 Chris Laird proposed that the USD would not collapse unless some at that time unforeseen event caused the equivalent of the Great Depression and a flight out instead of into the USD. Well guess what kiddies.....that event has since occurred and we are now on the road to serious financial trouble.

The following is an interesting read.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2006/0624.html

Kat, you don't have to read between the lines of this guy, he's out in left field with most of the other so called analyst.

First off, the largest chunk of the trillions he is throwing around is in derivatives and that is nothing more than gamblers, gambling on their gambling. It's low investment, high return insurance policies on any and everything. With most of it denominated in US dollars. That doesn't mean that the US is responsible for this debt if it has to be paid off. Financial institutions around the world have been making these bets in US dollars.

Like this guy said, if the dollar goes to zero, all these financial market makers are off the hook. But what if the dollar doesn't go to zero and just a small percentage of these have to be settled, say 30 or 40 trillions dollars worth. Would that not drive the dollar value through the roof. Where would these investors be able to buy those amounts of Dollars to settle other than the open market. Of course there are no financial institutions in the world able to come up with the cash in any currency to begin to settle these obligations. If the derivatives market started to implode, I'm sure the world governments would join together and declare all derivatives null and void. Sorry guys, but case closed.

It would be no different than a pandemic killing 20% of our population. The life insurance companies couldn't even begin to pay off the claims. Once the death count starts to rise, we would see them lining up at the bankruptcy courts, trying to salvage their business and avoid paying. Just another nationalized industry and pennies on the dollar payouts.

Then there is the stock market and it will never go to zero, even if the dollar "could" turn to dust. Investors own shares of these companies, not dollars. Sooner, rather than later, the dollar would be replaced with another currency and your stocks would be revalued with that new currency. The same goes for our Silver, homes and everything else we own. The big difference would be that we no longer owed anything for this stuff anymore. What difference does the value make if it's yours free and clear?

Short of a comet landing on us and putting an end to all this, there is always an upside to every downside. They may not be offsetting, but they are never one way only.

As far as Silver being at $14 or $17, tea cup handles or coffee cup handles, it's still very close to $4.50 compared to the $100 plus prophecies I've been reading about for over a decade. Like it or not, if it wasn't for the 300 plus million ounces in Silver ETF's, we'd still be back in single digits.

You can take the most outrageous predictions the Dunnyman has ever made and they are closer to reality than all of our so called Silver Guru's. I can only wish that he will have to eat his words. In the mean time, I'll just keep holding my tarnishing barbaric relics.

[Relayer]

"Like this guy said, if the dollar goes to zero, all these financial market makers are off the hook. But what if the dollar doesn't go to zero and just a small percentage of these have to be settled, say 30 or 40 trillions dollars worth. Would that not drive the dollar value through the roof. Where would these investors be able to buy those amounts of Dollars to settle other than the open market. Of course there are no financial institutions in the world able to come up with the cash in any currency to begin to settle these obligations. If the derivatives market started to implode, I'm sure the world governments would join together and declare all derivatives null and void. Sorry guys, but case closed."

Relayer: I think you are correct in that the dollar would never be allowed to go to zero. World governments would intervene before that happens. They would essential reset the currency markets to a new standard of their choice. That would not be the dollar. So the payoff would not have to be transacted in dollars. The dollar would continue to decline against the new standard as the US government settles debts by default and continues to use the printing press to payoff other debts.

Regarding the derivative market.....again its a situation where (as they are doing now!) governments will attempt (do everything possible) to prevent a failure in derivatives due the risk of a systemic failure. The fact of the matter is, they have been successful in putting this off for the time being. IMO other than what you have suggested, there is no solution to the matter of derivatives.

The question I have is....which comes first? A currency crisis due to the devaluation in the dollar or the destruction of the derivatives markets? A possible response to a currency crisis might be possible to anticipate (like the one Jim Sinclair has put forth. But we must realize that such a solution is again simply a way to keep the status quo for a little longer. IMO, the consequences of a systemic failure due to derivatives would be far more serious. And I dont think anyone can anticipate (now) what would need to be done (then) as the consequences would affect not only the life of economics but social life and politics as well.

The possibility is that a systemic failure from derivatives could precipitate a currency crisis. Now both must be dealt with concurrently!!

[beach miner]

Been lookin at this thread just sittin there while all the others and websites are hoppin over the PM's rise. I don't know about a Breakout, but I just watched Silver go to $16.50 early Asia time on Labor Day. It's nice to see a rise in price on the Pacific side, I feel like Chase Morgan, and Goldman Sach's are not pushing things up, just to slide them down. This increase in price could be so heavily influenced by Asia, the famous Shorts of Wall Steet, might be left at the Station, holdin the bag----empty of any Silver. See Ya At The Top.

[JesterJay]

Grab your 10 speeds...
Time for Breaking Away!
I'll get on my recumbent and join you.
JesterJay


Been lookin at this thread just sittin there while all the others and websites are hoppin over the PM's rise. I don't know about a Breakout, but I just watched Silver go to $16.50 early Asia time on Labor Day. It's nice to see a rise in price on the Pacific side, I feel like Chase Morgan, and Goldman Sach's are not pushing things up, just to slide them down. This increase in price could be so heavily influenced by Asia, the famous Shorts of Wall Steet, might be left at the Station, holdin the bag----empty of any Silver. See Ya At The Top.

[Katwoman]

My last post I said we would see $17 this fall and the chart now speaks for itself. The fundamentals of economics are now driving this market and silver and gold are starting to act like money for the first time since 1971!!!

"The gains are “strictly a monetary phenomenon,” Greenspan said today at an investment conference in New York. Rising prices of precious metals and other commodities are “an indication of a very early stage of an endeavor to move away from paper currencies,” he said."

Nuff said!!!